olivLaw · US equity research
REalloys Inc. ALOY
Metal Mining · SIC 1000 · Vertical: Metal Mining (SIC 1000)
REalloys is a U.S.-based rare earth materials company building an integrated mine-to-magnet supply chain in North America for defense and advanced industrial users. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported net revenues of [0.8] million USD, and cash at June 30, 2026 was [122.4] million USD.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, REalloys Inc. (ALOY) stock was 6.66 USD (+10.08% on the day), with market capitalisation 459.5 m USD, beta 1.92, 52-week range 6.05–25.88 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 804.0 k USD (+82.7% YoY), net income of -36.8 m USD, diluted EPS -0.59 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.3
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 6.13 – 7.69
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.34 · band width 22.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 8.20 / 11.02
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.47 / -0.49
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −17.9% | −2.0% | −15.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −31.3% | −2.2% | −29.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −36.2% | +4.3% | −40.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −17.7% | +10.6% | −28.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −11.1% | +10.5% | −21.5 pp | −10.3% |
| 3 years | +272.1% | +73.7% | +198.4 pp | +102.6% |
| 5 years | −77.8% | +61.7% | −139.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 647.8 k | 585.0 k | 0 | 440.0 k | 697.0 k | 628.4 k | 706.0 k | 804.0 k |
| Cost of revenue | 293.4 k | 429.9 k | 0 | 219.0 k | 322.9 k | 247.6 k | 299.0 k | 329.0 k |
| Gross profit | 354.4 k | 155.1 k | 244.1 k | 167.2 k | 374.1 k | 380.7 k | — | — |
| SG&A | — | — | 867.0 k | 1.1 m | — | — | 85.4 m | 36.0 m |
| Operating income | -734.2 k | -886.0 k | -867.0 k | -902.0 k | -438.9 k | -1.6 m | -87.7 m | -36.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.5 k | 2.1 k | 0 | 1.6 k | 1.2 k | 628 | 87.0 k | — |
| Interest expense | — | — | 91.0 k | 94.0 k | — | — | 8.0 k | 14.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | -780.8 k | -948.7 k | -829.1 k | -1.3 m | -720.6 k | -1.6 m | — | — |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Net income | -780.8 k | -948.7 k | -1.7 m | -2.2 m | -720.6 k | -1.6 m | -106.7 m | -36.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.22 | — | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.19 | — | -1.98 | -0.59 |
| Operating cash flow | 5.8 k ≈ | -24.4 k | -352.0 k | -350.0 k ≈ | -1.9 m ≈ | -510.4 k | -10.6 m | -7.2 m ≈ |
| Capex | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 10.0 k ≈ | — | — | 2.0 k | 22.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 692.8 k | 1.1 m | 3.4 m | 6.1 m | 5.0 m | 3.1 m | 2.6 m | 2.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | −23.9% | +53.4% | +216.9% | +81.5% | −18.9% | −37.4% | −17.4% | −5.3% |
| Net income | -1.2 m | -3.0 m | -354.9 k | -2.6 m | -5.0 m | -4.7 m | -3.5 m | -4.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.15 | -0.38 | -0.04 | -0.27 | -1.52 | -1.45 | -1.03 | -1.17 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -166.3% | -280.8% | -10.5% | -42.8% | -101.2% | -150.2% | -135.2% | -182.1% |
| Free cash flow | -501.3 k | -712.6 k | 142.3 k | -736.4 k | -4.4 m | -3.2 m | -705.7 k | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 154.0 k USD
- Net debt
- -2.7 m USD
- Equity
- 35.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 93.4 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 5.39x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -8.6%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.4 m | 6.1 m | 5.0 m | 3.1 m | 2.6 m | 2.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.2 m | 1.9 m | 2.1 m | 1.7 m | 1.4 m | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.2 m | 4.3 m | 2.9 m | 1.4 m | 1.1 m | 1.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -412.7 k | -2.3 m | -4.5 m | -5.3 m | -3.3 m | -4.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 12.9 k | 19.7 k | 22.7 k | 43.4 k | 16.0 k | 5.4 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -399.8 k ≈ | -2.3 m ≈ | -4.5 m ≈ | -5.3 m ≈ | -3.3 m ≈ | -4.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | — | — | — | 263 | 117.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -354.9 k | -2.6 m | -5.0 m | -4.7 m | -3.5 m | -4.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -354.9 k | -2.6 m | -5.0 m | -4.7 m | -3.5 m | -4.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.04 | -0.27 | -1.52 | -1.45 | -1.03 | -1.17 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | — | — | — | 113.0 k | 2.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Receivables | 18.0 k | 18.6 k | 59.6 k | 18.2 k | 7.2 k | 730.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 17.7 k | 13.6 k | 15.5 k | 3.5 k | 3.5 k | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.1 m | 10.7 m | 3.9 m | 1.0 m | 1.2 m | 38.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | — | — | — | — | 321.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | — | — | 2.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | — | — | — | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.2 m | 11.2 m | 4.3 m | 9.8 m | 9.9 m | 93.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 352.5 k | 585.6 k | 730.1 k | 842.4 k | 1.6 m | 1.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 399.6 k | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2021verified |
| Long-term debt | 890.1 k | — | — | — | — | 154.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.0 m | 2.9 m | 1.9 m | 2.2 m | 4.3 m | 7.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | — | — | — | — | 56.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
| Equity | -1.8 m † | 7.8 m † | 2.2 m † | 7.3 m † | -5.2 m † | 35.8 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 20 May 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 143.6 k | -672.5 k | -4.3 m | -3.2 m | -705.7 k | -3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.3 k | 63.9 k | 65.9 k | 2.6 k | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Mar 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 142.3 k ≈ | -736.4 k ≈ | -4.4 m ≈ | -3.2 m ≈ | -705.7 k ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Mar 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | 8.5 k | -8.1 m | 4.4 m | 3.3 m | -1.1 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 799.5 k | 10.2 m | -2.1 m | -56.4 k | 1.3 m | 3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 459.5 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -155.6% | 0 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | -5,144.4% | 0 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -21.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -2,782.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 30.7x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -4.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
REALLOYS INC. (ALOY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -5.3%; net margin -5,144.4%; ROE -155.8%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 30.7x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -155.6%
- Net margin: -5,144.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -21.1%
- Interest coverage: -2,782.8x
- FCF yield: -4.4%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Metal Mining (SIC 1000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHPBhp Group Limited | 406.8 bn | 45.2 | 19.5% | 17.6% | −7.9% | +46% / +31% |
| SCCOSouthern Copper Corp | 146.5 bn | 22.6 | 53.2% | 37.3% | +17.4% | +33% / +158% |
| RIORio Tinto PLC | 106.2 bn | 13.9 | 17.0% | 17.3% | +7.4% | +18% / +22% |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | 88.7 bn | 28.8 | 21.8% | 16.2% | +1.8% | +44% / +66% |
| HBMHudbay Minerals Inc. | 8.8 bn | 15.4 | 19.7% | 25.7% | +9.4% | +31% / +388% |
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | 7.3 bn | — | -8.5% | -2.4% | −3.0% | −2% / −25% |
| BVNBuenaventura Mining Co Inc | 7.3 bn | 18.1 | 12.6% | 34.9% | +40.1% | +16% / +202% |
| MPMP Materials Corp. | 6.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -19.9% | +10.1% | −42% / +126% |
| EROEro Copper Corp | 3.2 bn | 12.2 | 34.6% | 33.6% | +67.1% | +21% / +150% |
| NEXANexa Resources S.A. | 1.6 bn | 11.9 | 14.6% | 4.4% | +8.5% | +70% / +103% |
| IEIvanhoe Electric Inc. | 1.2 bn | — | -8.4% | -1,138.7% | +11.8% | −46% / −32% |
| USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -23.6% | -2,159.3% | unavailable | −39% / −20% |
| TMCTMC the metals Co Inc. | 1.0 bn | 4.2 | -1,123.2% | — | unavailable | −67% / +103% |
| USASAmericas Gold And Silver Corporation | 986.9 m | — | -61.6% | -74.1% | +17.7% | −31% / +413% |
| ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | 769.3 m | 79.0 | 7.0% | 12.2% | +50.8% | −15% / +746% |
| LARLithium Argentina AG | 682.1 m | — | -9.5% | — | +12.9% | −24% / −21% |
| SGMLSigma Lithium Corporation | 626.1 m | — | -67.4% | -45.6% | −27.3% | −50% / −81% |
| GSMFerroglobe PLC | 547.5 m | — | -25.9% | -12.8% | −18.8% | −34% / −49% |
| ALOYRealloys Inc. | 459.5 m | — | -155.8% | -5,144.4% | −5.3% | −11% / +272% |
| THMInternational Tower Hill Mines Ltd | 455.2 m | — | -2.8% | — | unavailable | −10% / +222% |
| LZMLifezone Metals Limited | 336.9 m | — | -16.7% | -1,289.2% | +652.2% | +1% / −60% |
| USAUU.s. Gold Corp. | 186.4 m | — | -55.2% | — | −30.9% | −35% / +239% |
| PZGParamount Gold Nevada Corp. | 83.9 m | — | -46.1% | — | −54.7% | −20% / +146% |
| WWRWestwater Resources, Inc. | 52.5 m | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | −57% / −33% |
| COPRIdaho Copper Corporation | 25.7 m | — | -187.5% | — | −63.5% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ALOY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
REalloys is a U.S.-based rare earth materials company building an integrated mine-to-magnet supply chain in North America for defense and advanced industrial users. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported net revenues of [0.8] million USD, and cash at June 30, 2026 was [122.4] million USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a strong financial position, with substantial cash and almost no debt, and it aims to control an integrated chain from resource to magnet 3.
- The SRC and metallization facilities are fully funded, and the company has secured supply rights to a large share of the expanded SRC output 3.
- Leadership has been strengthened with experience in rare earth processing and mining finance, which supports project execution 3.
Weaknesses
- Revenue is small relative to losses, and non-cash expenses dominated the quarterly result 3.
- The Hoidas Lake resource is not classified as a mineral resource, and its economic viability has not been established 2.
- Frequent changes in financial and board leadership could slow execution and weigh on investor confidence 2.
Opportunities
- The ban on magnets from adversarial sources could open markets for North American suppliers to defense and industry 2.
- Negotiations with the U.S. Army at Tooele Army Depot could expand heavy rare earth processing if they lead to a final lease 3.
- U.S. feedstock arrangements could diversify supply if they become binding agreements 3.
Risks
- Project executionhigh
The SRC upgrade and the metallization facility must enter operation on schedule, and delays could postpone expected revenue 3.
- Large losses and non-cash expensesmedium
The second-quarter net loss was influenced by stock-based compensation, which makes operating performance hard to assess 3.
- Dependence on government contractsmedium
Revenue and projects depend on contracts with government agencies, which can be changed or delayed 23.
- Feedstock accessmedium
Feedstock arrangements are non-binding, and a shortage of raw material could limit production 3.
- Dilution and future financinglow
If projects cost more than planned, the company could need additional capital with a dilutive effect 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the SRC and metallization facilities enter operation on time, the company could become a significant North American supplier of rare earth metals for defense and industry 3.
- The ban on magnets from adversarial sources could increase demand for a traceable supply chain in which REalloys could have an advantage 2.
- A strong cash position and little debt could give flexibility to execute the strategic plan 3.
What would break the thesis
- Current revenue is small, and large losses could continue until the facilities become operational 3.
- The Hoidas Lake resource is not classified as a mineral resource, which could leave its economic value more uncertain 2.
- Frequent leadership changes and dependence on government contracts could slow project progress 23.
What to watch
- Progress of the SRC facility upgrade and start of worksQ3 2026
- Conclusion of negotiations with the U.S. Army on the Tooele Army Depot leaseSeptember 2026
- Trend in PMTCM revenue and non-cash lossesQ3 2026
- Commissioning of the heavy rare earth metallization facilityQ1 2028
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
REalloys Inc. (Nasdaq: ALOY) describes its strategy as a 'mine-to-magnet' model, combining upstream resources, midstream separation and purification, and downstream metallization and magnet manufacturing, all located in North America 2. It operates through two principal subsidiaries: Strategic Metals Development Corp., which holds the exploration-stage Hoidas Lake Project in Saskatchewan, and PMT Critical Metals Inc., which operates the Euclid facility producing rare earth metals, alloys and NdFeB magnet materials 2. Historical estimates for Hoidas Lake are not classified as mineral resources or reserves under S-K 1300, and economic viability has not been established 2.
In the second quarter of 2026, revenue came mainly from PMTCM's sales of rare earth metals and materials, including a Defense Logistics Agency contract, and from Blackbox subscription revenue before its deconsolidation on May 5, 2026 3. The company reported a large net loss driven mainly by non-cash stock-based compensation tied to its February 2026 transition to a Nasdaq-listed company 3.
The central strategic projects are the upgrade of the SRC Rare Earth Processing Facility in Saskatchewan and a heavy rare earth metallization facility, both described as fully funded in the results release 3. The U.S. Army selected the company for exclusive negotiations toward a long-term Enhanced Use Lease at Tooele Army Depot, Utah, which could expand heavy rare earth processing capacity 3.
Segments
Upstream: resources and feedstock
The upstream segment rests on the Hoidas Lake exploration project, which is enriched in neodymium and praseodymium, and on non-binding arrangements to explore feedstock supply from projects in Montana and Wyoming 23. These arrangements are preliminary, so feedstock availability remains uncertain.
Midstream: separation and metallization
The midstream segment includes the SRC facility upgrade, targeting about 525 tonnes of NdPr metal, 30 tonnes of dysprosium oxide and 15 tonnes of terbium oxide per year, and a metallization facility targeting about 50 tonnes per year, with commissioning planned for the first quarter of 2028 3.
Market context
The addressable market is rare earth materials for high-performance permanent magnets used in defense, aerospace, electric vehicles, wind energy and medical equipment 2. Supply is concentrated in China, and the Department of Defense will be prohibited from procuring covered magnets from adversarial nations starting January 1, 2027, which could create demand for traceable North American sources 2.
Demand for rare earth metals in defense depends on government programs and contracts with agencies such as the Defense Logistics Agency and the Department of Energy, so revenue timing depends on the timing of those purchases 23.
Trends
- Restrictions on Chinese supply chainstailwind
The Department of Defense ban on magnets with rare earths from adversarial sources could support demand for North American producers if projects reach operation 2.
- Project commissioning delaysheadwind
The timing of the SRC and metallization facilities depends on execution, and revenue could stay limited until they enter operation 3.
- Additional project financingmixed
The private placement could support projects, but it dilutes existing shareholders if further share issuance becomes necessary 2.
- Leadership changesmixed
Changes in leadership, including a new CFO and a new COO, could support execution but also introduce organizational transitions 3.
Competitive position
The sources do not name direct competitors in rare earth metals; the competitor names given relate to the former Blackbox trading analytics business 1. Competition in rare earth metals includes producers outside the U.S., especially in China, which controls a large part of global supply 2.
In the near term, the company's advantage could come from its status as a traceable North American supplier and from government contracts, but this advantage depends on commissioning its facilities 23.
- Chinese rare earth producers
The sources indicate that global rare earth supply is concentrated in China, making these producers the main competition on price and capacity for rare earth materials 2.
- Trade Ideas
Named in the Blackbox filing as a direct competitor in trading analytics platforms, an activity deconsolidated in 2026 1.
- Unusual Whales
Options flow analytics platform named as a direct competitor of the Blackbox business, which was deconsolidated in 2026 1.
- Flow Algo
Options analytics platform named as a direct competitor of the former Blackbox activity 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- US, China Gap on Critical Minerals 'Won't Change Overnight,' Say REalloys CEOBloomberg Markets · 13 Aug 2026 · EN
- REalloys Announces Partnership to Operate on US Army BaseBloomberg Markets · 01 Jul 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report13 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report13 Aug 2026
- Current report30 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 Jun 2026Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Jun 2026Material agreement · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report20 May 2026
- Current report (amendment)12 May 2026Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 May 2026Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Apr 2026Item 4.01 · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / REalloys Inc. · 23 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / REalloys Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / REalloys Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.