olivLaw · US equity research
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO
Metal Mining · SIC 1000 · Vertical: Metal Mining (SIC 1000)
Southern Copper is one of the world's largest integrated copper producers, with mines in Peru and Mexico and a very low net cost thanks to by-products. Net sales in the third quarter of 2026 were 4.7 bn USD, up 39.1 %, but the growth came from price: copper output is falling.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) stock was 176.84 USD (+1.93% on the day), with market capitalisation 149.3 bn USD, P/E 23.0 on diluted EPS of 7.68 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.39%, beta 1.55, 52-week range 116.49–219.70 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 4.7 bn USD (+39.1% YoY), net income of 1.8 bn USD (+62.7% YoY), diluted EPS 2.15 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 170.42 – 215.57
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.14 · band width 23.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 198.24 / 186.57
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -6.23 / -4.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −13.9% | −1.1% | −12.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.2% | −0.5% | −8.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −1.7% | +4.4% | −6.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +27.0% | +12.3% | +14.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +40.4% | +13.5% | +26.9 pp | −10.3% |
| 3 years | +154.8% | +76.4% | +78.4 pp | +67.8% |
| 5 years | +218.6% | +63.7% | +154.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn |
| SG&A | 34.5 m | 31.7 m | 32.5 m | 33.7 m | 39.9 m | 35.8 m | 35.3 m | 36.4 m |
| Operating income | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 214.2 m | 223.8 m | 206.2 m | 207.8 m | 230.7 m | 225.7 m | 226.0 m | 230.4 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn |
| Income tax | 446.7 m | 532.8 m | 575.9 m ≈ | 619.7 m ≈ | 741.7 m | 891.0 m | 945.3 m ≈ | 990.9 m ≈ |
| Net income | 796.2 m | 949.1 m | 976.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 0.96 ≈ | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.32 | 1.60 ≈ | 1.92 | 2.01 | 2.15 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.4 bn | 721.4 m | 976.8 m | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Capex | 235.3 m | 317.8 m | 235.7 m | 349.2 m | 422.6 m | 441.9 m | 422.8 m | 515.8 m |
| Dividends paid | 549.9 m | 553.3 m | 557.4 m | 643.3 m | 731.1 m | 819.2 m | 826.2 m | 917.9 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 55 percentile of its own 20-quarter history (min 12.3, median 21.3, max 33.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.1 bn | 7.3 bn | 8.0 bn | 10.9 bn | 10.0 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.4 bn | 13.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +6.6% | +2.7% | +9.6% | +36.9% | −8.1% | −1.5% | +15.5% | +17.4% |
| Net income | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +111.4% | −3.6% | +5.8% | +116.2% | −22.4% | −8.1% | +39.2% | +28.3% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | 1.92 | 2.03 | 4.39 | 3.41 | 3.05 | 4.21 | 5.24 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +5.7% | +116.3% | −22.3% | −10.6% | +38.0% | +24.5% |
| net % | 21.8% | 20.5% | 19.8% | 31.2% | 26.4% | 24.6% | 29.6% | 32.4% |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.3 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 6.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 11.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 21.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.61x
- Current ratio
- 3.89x
- ROE
- 42.7%
- ROA
- 21.7%
- FCF margin
- 25.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.0 bn | 10.9 bn | 10.0 bn | 9.9 bn | 11.4 bn | 13.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 4.1 bn ≈ | 7.0 bn ≈ | 5.4 bn ≈ | 5.2 bn ≈ | 6.6 bn ≈ | 8.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 126.2 m | 125.2 m | 125.0 m | 127.2 m | 130.5 m | 137.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 3.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 775.6 m | 806.0 m | 796.3 m | 833.6 m | 845.9 m | 868.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 3.9 bn ≈ | 6.9 bn ≈ | 5.2 bn ≈ | 5.0 bn ≈ | 6.4 bn ≈ | 7.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 2.7 bn | 5.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.03 | 4.39 | 3.41 | 3.05 | 4.21 | 5.24 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 773.1 m | 773.1 m | 773.1 m | 795.3 m | 802.9 m | 826.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.50 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 2.10 | 3.10 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 2.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 950.2 m | 972.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 4.8 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 8.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 9.5 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.6 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.9 bn | 10.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 41.9 m | 41.9 m | 41.9 m | 41.9 m | 41.9 m | 41.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 25.4 m | 21.0 m | 21.4 m | 18.5 m | 16.0 m | 15.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 16.9 bn | 18.3 bn | 17.3 bn | 16.7 bn | 18.7 bn | 21.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 594.6 m | 591.9 m | 657.6 m | 652.6 m | 615.2 m | 861.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 299.7 m | — | — | 499.8 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 6.5 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 7.3 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.1 bn | 7.5 bn | 9.2 bn | 11.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.8 bn | 4.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 592.2 m | 892.3 m | 948.5 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.2 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -915.8 m | -972.9 m | -666.8 m | -1.4 bn | -673.3 m | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.6 bn | -2.5 bn | -3.0 bn | -3.1 bn | -1.6 bn | -2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 70 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 149.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation29
- Returns54
- Quality95
- Balance sheet100
- Growth92
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 40.74 – 189.52 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA120.28 – 189.52 (Mid 151.33)4 companies used · median multiple 12.0x · quartiles 9.6x – 14.9xCLF, ERO, FCX, HBM
- Peers: P/E93.07 – 160.55 (Mid 112.69)8 companies used · median multiple 14.7x · quartiles 12.1x – 20.9xBHP, BVN, ERO, FCX, HBM, NEXA, RIO, TMC
- Dividend discount (DDM)40.74 – 54.78 (Mid 46.73)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 70/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 42.5% | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 37.3% | 100 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 87.8% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 10.1% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 15.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.0x | 33 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 13.9x | 10 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.7% | 47 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.2% | 32 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 58.8% | 87 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth92/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/ (SCCO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 13.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 17.4%; net margin 37.3%; ROE 53.2%; net debt/EBITDA 0.3x.
The estimated value range is 93.07–160.55 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 112.69 USD, the price of 176.84 USD leaves a potential of -36.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -56.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 70/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 42.5%
- Net margin: 37.3%
- FCF conversion: 87.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 15.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.3x
- Current ratio: 4.3x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 58.8%
What contradicts it
- EV/EBITDA: 13.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Metal Mining (SIC 1000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHPBhp Group Limited | 406.8 bn | 45.2 | 19.5% | 17.6% | −7.9% | +46% / +31% |
| SCCOSouthern Copper Corp | 149.3 bn | 23.0 | 53.2% | 37.3% | +17.4% | +40% / +155% |
| RIORio Tinto PLC | 106.2 bn | 13.9 | 17.0% | 17.3% | +7.4% | +18% / +22% |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | 89.9 bn | 29.2 | 21.8% | 16.2% | +1.8% | +46% / +68% |
| HBMHudbay Minerals Inc. | 8.8 bn | 15.4 | 19.7% | 25.7% | +9.4% | +31% / +388% |
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | 7.3 bn | — | -8.5% | -2.4% | −3.0% | −2% / −25% |
| BVNBuenaventura Mining Co Inc | 7.3 bn | 18.1 | 12.6% | 34.9% | +40.1% | +16% / +202% |
| MPMP Materials Corp. | 6.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -19.9% | +10.1% | −42% / +126% |
| EROEro Copper Corp | 3.2 bn | 12.2 | 34.6% | 33.6% | +67.1% | +21% / +150% |
| NEXANexa Resources S.A. | 1.6 bn | 11.9 | 14.6% | 4.4% | +8.5% | +70% / +103% |
| IEIvanhoe Electric Inc. | 1.2 bn | — | -8.4% | -1,138.7% | +11.8% | −46% / −32% |
| USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -23.6% | -2,159.3% | unavailable | −39% / −20% |
| TMCTMC the metals Co Inc. | 1.0 bn | 4.2 | -1,123.2% | — | unavailable | −67% / +103% |
| USASAmericas Gold And Silver Corporation | 986.9 m | — | -61.6% | -74.1% | +17.7% | −31% / +413% |
| ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | 769.3 m | 79.0 | 7.0% | 12.2% | +50.8% | −15% / +746% |
| LARLithium Argentina AG | 682.1 m | — | -9.5% | — | +12.9% | −24% / −21% |
| SGMLSigma Lithium Corporation | 626.1 m | — | -67.4% | -45.6% | −27.3% | −50% / −81% |
| GSMFerroglobe PLC | 547.5 m | — | -25.9% | -12.8% | −18.8% | −34% / −49% |
| ALOYRealloys Inc. | 459.5 m | — | -155.8% | -5,144.4% | −5.3% | −5% / +68% |
| THMInternational Tower Hill Mines Ltd | 455.2 m | — | -2.8% | — | unavailable | −10% / +222% |
| LZMLifezone Metals Limited | 336.9 m | — | -16.7% | -1,289.2% | +652.2% | +1% / −60% |
| USAUU.s. Gold Corp. | 186.4 m | — | -55.2% | — | −30.9% | −35% / +239% |
| PZGParamount Gold Nevada Corp. | 83.9 m | — | -46.1% | — | −54.7% | −20% / +146% |
| WWRWestwater Resources, Inc. | 52.5 m | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | −57% / −33% |
| COPRIdaho Copper Corporation | 25.7 m | — | -187.5% | — | −63.5% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SCCO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 108.51 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 191.35 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 287.55 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 117.56 Total return -25% · Per year -9% | 232.06 Total return 43% · Per year 13% | 381.12 Total return 131% · Per year 32% |
| 5 years | 127.36 Total return -13% · Per year -3% | 281.44 Total return 82% · Per year 13% | 505.14 Total return 215% · Per year 26% |
- Exit P/E± 58.02
- Net margin± 40.61
- Annual revenue growth± 31.63
- Annual dilution± 3.41
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 26 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-sonnet-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
In brief
Southern Copper is one of the world's largest integrated copper producers, with mines in Peru and Mexico and a very low net cost thanks to by-products 1. Net sales in the third quarter of 2026 were 4.7 bn USD, up 39.1 %, but the growth came from price: copper output is falling 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Copper output declining, by 2.9 % over nine months 1.
- Concentrated exposure to Peru and Mexico.
- Dependence on the price of a single metal.
Opportunities
Threats
- Social opposition and project blockages in Peru.
- A fall in the copper price hits profit directly.
- Tariffs or slowing Chinese demand.
Risks
- Copper pricehigh
Profit follows the price. A correction after the 2026 records would quickly compress revenue and margin 12.
- Social and political risk in Peruhigh
Projects such as Tia Maria were delayed for years by protests; being 49.6 % complete does not remove the risk of new stoppages 1.
- Falling volumemedium
If ore grades keep declining, output could stay below earlier years 1.
- Rising capexmedium
Spending of 1.3805 bn USD in nine months and projects of 551 mn USD and 2.6 bn USD could overrun budgets 1.
- Controlling shareholderlow
The majority holder decides dividends and strategy; minority interests may differ.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Copper output and cash costQ4 2026
- US decision on a refined copper duty2026–2027
- Grasberg recovery and the global copper balance2027
- Start of construction at El PilarQ1 2027
- Progress at Tia Maria2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 26 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-sonnet-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 21 Oct 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026).
The business
The company mines, concentrates, smelts and refines copper and produces molybdenum, zinc and silver as by-products. It sells cathodes, concentrates and derived products to smelters, cable makers and traders in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Control of the chain from mine to cathode gives flexibility, and by-product credits pull its net cost close to zero 1.
Results are almost entirely a function of the copper price. In the third quarter of 2026 the average LME price was 6.41 USD/lb, the adjusted EBITDA margin 64.7 %, and the cash cost net of by-products only 0.09 USD/lb 1.
Segments
Peru mining
Covers the Toquepala and Cuajone mines and the Ilo refinery. Peruvian output fell in 2026 on lower ore grades, which explains most of the drop in total output 1. The big growth projects, Tia Maria and Los Chancas, are also here.
Mexico mining
Includes the Buenavista and La Caridad complexes and the underground zinc, lead and silver mines. Buenavista's copper output grew in the third quarter of 2026, partly offsetting Peru 1. The El Pilar project in Sonora carries an investment of 551 mn USD 1.
By-products
Molybdenum, zinc and silver lower the net cost of copper. Mined zinc and molybdenum fell in 2026 versus last year, while mined silver rose slightly over nine months 1.
Market context
The refined copper market is moving toward deficit. ICSG expects a deficit of about 150,000 tonnes in 2026 (May 2026 revision) 4, while ING estimated about 600,000 tonnes in December 2025 2; the gap reflects assumptions about mine recoveries, Chinese demand and tariffs. Benchmark estimated the Grasberg stoppage would remove about 313,000 tonnes of 2026 output 3; full recovery is not expected before 2027, and some 2026 estimates push it toward 2028 24.
US tariffs have pulled stocks toward the US: the duty on semi-finished copper products has been 50 % since August 2025, refined copper was exempted, but the administration may decide a duty on it from 2027 24. High prices supported Southern Copper's sales and profit in 2026.
Trends
- Structural supply deficittailwind
New mines are few and late, and ore grades are declining at many producers. If the estimated deficit materialises, prices could stay high, which would support margins 2.
- US tariff policymixed
A duty on refined copper could shift flows and widen COMEX-LME gaps. The effect on a producer selling globally is uncertain 4.
- Falling ore grades in Peruheadwind
Copper output fell 2.9 % in the first nine months of 2026, mainly from the Peruvian mines 1. Lower volume limits the gain from price.
- Investment cyclemixed
Capital spending reached 1.3805 bn USD in nine months, and Tia Maria, El Pilar and Los Chancas would add volume only after 2028 1. Until then capex weighs on free cash flow.
Competitive position
Southern Copper competes with large diversified miners and copper specialists. Its edge is a long-lived reserve base and a very low production cost helped by by-products. Its weaknesses are geographic concentration in Peru and Mexico and dependence on a single metal.
- Freeport-McMoRanFCX
One of the largest listed copper producers; hit by the Grasberg stoppage 23.
- BHPBHP
Diversified miner with Escondida in Chile.
- Rio TintoRIO
Diversified, with copper at Oyu Tolgoi and in the US.
- Teck ResourcesTECK
Copper and zinc producer with assets in Chile and Peru; its merger with Anglo American was still awaiting approvals in October 2026.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Copper Stocks Tumble as Tariff Doubt Reverses Record Rally: Freeport-McMoRan Sinks 8%, Teck Resources and Southern Copper Drop 7%Yahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Southern Copper Stock Pauses After Teasing InvestorsYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 10 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 30 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report21 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report22 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jul 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report26 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Jun 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 8-K, comunicat rezultate trimestrul III 2026 și 9 luni · SEC / Southern Copper · 21 Oct 2026
- [2] Copper upside building on tight supply · ING Think · 08 Dec 2025
- [3] Grasberg supply shock to plunge refined copper market into deficit in 2026 · Benchmark Mineral Intelligence · 26 Sept 2025
- [4] Section 232 tariff deadline and copper deficit · Crux Investor · 29 Jun 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.