olivLaw · US equity research
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF
Metal Mining · SIC 1000 · Vertical: Metal Mining (SIC 1000)
Cleveland-Cliffs is a North America-based steelmaker vertically integrated from iron ore mining to stamping and tubing, with a focus on automotive sheet products. In the third quarter of 2026 domestic HRC prices rose sharply and the company points to 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4 billion, an outlook that depends on commodity markets and trade policy.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) stock was 12.84 USD (−9.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.3 bn USD, dividend yield 0.47%, beta 1.96, 52-week range 7.82–15.09 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 5.6 bn USD (+18.5% YoY), net income of 152.0 m USD, diluted EPS 0.26 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.0
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.89 – 14.86
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.32 · band width 22.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.53 / 11.37
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.43 / 0.47
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.2% | −1.1% | +6.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.5% | −0.5% | +2.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +15.2% | +4.4% | +10.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −3.3% | +12.3% | −15.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +20.2% | +13.5% | +6.7 pp | −10.3% |
| 3 years | −25.0% | +76.4% | −101.4 pp | +102.6% |
| 5 years | −42.6% | +63.7% | −106.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.6 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 4.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.1 bn |
| SG&A | 139.0 m | 133.0 m | 137.0 m | 130.0 m | 143.0 m | 125.0 m | 154.0 m | 153.0 m |
| Operating income | -465.0 m | -543.0 m | -501.0 m | -204.0 m | -331.0 m | -213.0 m | -49.0 m | 311.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 258.0 m | 282.0 m | 393.0 m | 288.0 m | 272.0 m | 259.0 m | 262.0 m | 259.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -570.0 m | -635.0 m | -621.0 m | -309.0 m | -439.0 m | -307.0 m | -152.0 m | 213.0 m |
| Income tax | -136.0 m | -149.0 m | -148.0 m | -78.0 m | -206.0 m | -81.0 m | -20.0 m | 46.0 m |
| Net income | -447.0 m | -498.0 m | -486.0 m | -251.0 m | -243.0 m | -237.0 m | -145.0 m | 152.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.92 ≈ | -1.01 | -0.98 | -0.51 | -0.44 ≈ | -0.42 | -0.25 | 0.26 |
| Operating cash flow | -472.0 m | -351.0 m | 45.0 m ≈ | -143.0 m ≈ | -13.0 m | -325.0 m | 230.0 m ≈ | 224.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 205.0 m | 152.0 m | 112.0 m ≈ | 157.0 m ≈ | 140.0 m | 152.0 m | 157.0 m ≈ | 152.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 5.4 bn | 20.4 bn | 23.0 bn | 22.0 bn | 19.2 bn | 18.6 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +25.0% | −14.7% | +169.0% | +281.8% | +12.4% | −4.3% | −12.8% | −3.0% |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 293.0 m | -122.0 m | 3.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 385.0 m | -760.0 m | -1.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | +207.4% | −74.0% | −141.6% | unavailable | −55.3% | −71.2% | −297.4% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 3.71 | 1.03 | -0.32 | 5.36 | 2.55 | 0.75 | -1.58 | -2.91 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +194.4% | −72.2% | −131.1% | unavailable | −52.4% | −70.6% | −310.7% | unavailable |
| net % | 48.4% | 14.7% | -2.3% | 14.6% | 5.8% | 1.8% | -4.0% | -7.9% |
| Free cash flow | 183.0 m | -88.0 m | -783.0 m | 2.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | -590.0 m | -1.0 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 57.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 7.3 bn USD
- Net debt
- 7.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 6.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 20.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.15x
- Current ratio
- 1.95x
- ROE
- -22.4%
- ROA
- -7.2%
- FCF margin
- -5.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.4 bn | 20.4 bn | 23.0 bn | 22.0 bn | 19.2 bn | 18.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.1 bn | 15.9 bn | 20.5 bn | 20.6 bn | 19.1 bn | 19.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 252.0 m ≈ | 4.5 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 63.0 m ≈ | -860.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 244.0 m | 422.0 m | 465.0 m | 577.0 m | 486.0 m | 543.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -142.0 m | 4.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 659.0 m | -763.0 m | -1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 308.0 m | 897.0 m | 1.0 bn | 973.0 m | 951.0 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 166.0 m ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 188.0 m ≈ | -344.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | -193.0 m | 3.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 579.0 m | -950.0 m | -2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -111.0 m | 773.0 m | 423.0 m | 144.0 m | -236.0 m | -581.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -122.0 m | 3.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 385.0 m | -760.0 m | -1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.32 | 5.36 | 2.55 | 0.75 | -1.58 | -2.91 | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 379.0 m | 558.0 m | 524.0 m | 511.0 m | 480.0 m | 508.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.06 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2021verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 112.0 m | 48.0 m | 26.0 m | 198.0 m | 54.0 m | 57.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 3.8 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.3 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.9 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 8.7 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.1 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.9 bn | 9.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 188.0 m | 221.0 m | 214.0 m | 201.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 16.8 bn | 19.0 bn | 18.8 bn | 17.5 bn | 20.9 bn | 20.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 34.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2021verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.1 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 13.7 bn | 13.2 bn | 10.7 bn | 9.4 bn | 14.1 bn | 13.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.3 bn | 5.8 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.1 bn | 6.9 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -258.0 m | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 105.0 m | -462.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 525.0 m | 705.0 m | 943.0 m | 646.0 m | 695.0 m | 561.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -783.0 m ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | -590.0 m ≈ | -1.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.0 bn | -1.4 bn | -936.0 m | -591.0 m | -3.2 bn | -479.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 2.1 bn | -1.5 bn | -1.5 bn | -1.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 942.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 41.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2021verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 240.0 m | 152.0 m | 733.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 18 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet26
- Valuation0
- Quality46
- Growth0
- Returns0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.00 – 5.04 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA0.00 – 5.04 (Mid 2.89)4 companies used · median multiple 12.0x · quartiles 9.6x – 13.6xERO, FCX, HBM, SCCO
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.79 – 1.06 (Mid 0.90)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 18/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -1.7% | 45 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Net margin · Quality | -2.4% | 47 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -6.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 9.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 89 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 19.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -6.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet26/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality46/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC. (CLF). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 18.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.0%; net margin -2.4%; ROE -8.5%; net debt/EBITDA 9.8x.
The estimated value range is 0.39–3.05 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.90 USD, the price of 12.84 USD leaves a potential of -85.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -577.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 18/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.9x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -6.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 9.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 19.3x
- FCF yield: -6.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Metal Mining (SIC 1000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHPBhp Group Limited | 406.8 bn | 45.2 | 19.5% | 17.6% | −7.9% | +46% / +31% |
| SCCOSouthern Copper Corp | 149.3 bn | 23.0 | 53.2% | 37.3% | +17.4% | +35% / +163% |
| RIORio Tinto PLC | 106.2 bn | 13.9 | 17.0% | 17.3% | +7.4% | +18% / +22% |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | 89.9 bn | 29.2 | 21.8% | 16.2% | +1.8% | +46% / +68% |
| HBMHudbay Minerals Inc. | 8.8 bn | 15.4 | 19.7% | 25.7% | +9.4% | +31% / +388% |
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | 7.3 bn | — | -8.5% | -2.4% | −3.0% | +20% / −25% |
| BVNBuenaventura Mining Co Inc | 7.3 bn | 18.1 | 12.6% | 34.9% | +40.1% | +16% / +202% |
| MPMP Materials Corp. | 6.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -19.9% | +10.1% | −42% / +126% |
| EROEro Copper Corp | 3.2 bn | 12.2 | 34.6% | 33.6% | +67.1% | +21% / +150% |
| NEXANexa Resources S.A. | 1.6 bn | 11.9 | 14.6% | 4.4% | +8.5% | +70% / +103% |
| IEIvanhoe Electric Inc. | 1.2 bn | — | -8.4% | -1,138.7% | +11.8% | −46% / −32% |
| USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -23.6% | -2,159.3% | unavailable | −39% / −20% |
| TMCTMC the metals Co Inc. | 1.0 bn | 4.2 | -1,123.2% | — | unavailable | −67% / +103% |
| USASAmericas Gold And Silver Corporation | 986.9 m | — | -61.6% | -74.1% | +17.7% | −31% / +413% |
| ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | 769.3 m | 79.0 | 7.0% | 12.2% | +50.8% | −15% / +746% |
| LARLithium Argentina AG | 682.1 m | — | -9.5% | — | +12.9% | −24% / −21% |
| SGMLSigma Lithium Corporation | 626.1 m | — | -67.4% | -45.6% | −27.3% | −50% / −81% |
| GSMFerroglobe PLC | 547.5 m | — | -25.9% | -12.8% | −18.8% | −34% / −49% |
| ALOYRealloys Inc. | 459.5 m | — | -155.8% | -5,144.4% | −5.3% | −5% / +68% |
| THMInternational Tower Hill Mines Ltd | 455.2 m | — | -2.8% | — | unavailable | −10% / +222% |
| LZMLifezone Metals Limited | 336.9 m | — | -16.7% | -1,289.2% | +652.2% | +1% / −60% |
| USAUU.s. Gold Corp. | 186.4 m | — | -55.2% | — | −30.9% | −35% / +239% |
| PZGParamount Gold Nevada Corp. | 83.9 m | — | -46.1% | — | −54.7% | −20% / +146% |
| WWRWestwater Resources, Inc. | 52.5 m | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | −57% / −33% |
| COPRIdaho Copper Corporation | 25.7 m | — | -187.5% | — | −63.5% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CLF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Cleveland-Cliffs is a North America-based steelmaker vertically integrated from iron ore mining to stamping and tubing, with a focus on automotive sheet products. In the third quarter of 2026 domestic HRC prices rose sharply and the company points to 2027 adjusted EBITDA above $4 billion, an outlook that depends on commodity markets and trade policy.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is vertically integrated and sources most of its iron ore internally, which gives it more predictable costs. It has a strong position in automotive steel and a broad range of flat-rolled products.
- It operates in the United States and Canada with high-quality facilities and continuous maintenance investment. It has a unionized workforce with long-standing labor relations.
- It produces electrical steel and HBI in the Great Lakes region, products relevant to grid modernization and production efficiency.
Weaknesses
- Revenue is sensitive to the cycle of steel and scrap prices, and declines can hit profitability quickly.
- The company posted losses in some quarters and had to close or idle several operations.
- Debt remains a concern, and the leverage reduction target depends on cash flow and asset sales.
Opportunities
- Demand from the automotive and electrical sectors could grow if domestic production strengthens. Higher prices could improve margins.
- Sales of non-core assets and a possible POSCO partnership could reduce debt and bring in capital.
- Exploring rare earth elements in mining assets could open a new business line if studies confirm feasibility.
Threats
- If tariffs were removed or weakened, cheap imports could return and domestic prices could fall.
- Financial distress at customers or suppliers could affect collections and operational continuity.
- Changes to the USMCA or geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and cross-border trade.
Risks
- Raw material price volatilityhigh
Profitability depends on steel, scrap and iron ore prices, which are influenced by factors beyond the company's control. Prolonged declines could lead to asset impairments and production cuts.
- Dependence on the automotive industryhigh
A large share of sales goes to North American automakers. A drop in production or the loss of contracts could materially affect revenue.
- Global overcapacitymedium
Excess capacity in other countries can lead to cheap imports and downward pressure on domestic prices, especially if tariffs change.
- Unstable trade policymedium
Changes to Section 232 tariffs or to the USMCA could sharply alter market conditions and access to customers.
- Debt and liquiditymedium
Debt reduction targets depend on cash flow, asset sales and capital market conditions, which introduces financial uncertainty.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If HRC prices and tariffs keep supporting domestic demand, quarterly results could keep improving, as seen in the third quarter of 2026.
- Its vertically integrated position and reduced dependence on imported raw materials could protect margins better than scrap-based competitors.
- Sales of non-core assets and debt reduction could strengthen the balance sheet and open room for investment or partnerships.
What would break the thesis
- Steel prices are cyclical, and a return of imports or a fall in automotive demand could quickly reduce profitability.
- The company posted loss-making quarters and closed several operations, showing that performance can vary widely across assets.
- If tariffs were changed or if energy and freight costs rose further, margins could come under pressure.
What to watch
- Delivery of the fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA the company guided to versus its estimateQ4 2026
- Evolution of HRC prices and volumes shipped to the automotive industryQ1 2027
- Progress on debt reduction and reaching the leverage target below 2.5x2027
- Status of POSCO negotiations and non-core asset salesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Cleveland-Cliffs is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, and employs about 25000 people across the United States and Canada. The company is vertically integrated: it mines iron ore, produces pellets and direct reduced iron, processes ferrous scrap, and converts steel into finished products including stamping, tooling and tubing. Its configured capacity is about 20.0 million net tons of raw steel per year, which places it among the larger producers in the region.
The company says internal sourcing of ferrous raw materials makes its costs more predictable and reduces its exposure to volatile import prices. The 2025 strategy included idling or closing six operations, selling non-core assets, and signing multi-year fixed-price contracts with major automotive customers. The Stelco acquisition, completed in November 2024, added a Canadian flat-rolled steelmaking business.
Cliffs signed a memorandum of understanding with POSCO for a possible strategic partnership and launched sale processes for non-core assets. It is also exploring rare earth extraction at its mining assets, but says further technical and economic studies are needed before any conclusion on feasibility.
Segments
Tubular, Tooling and Stamping
These activities include carbon and stainless tubing, hot- and cold-stamped components, tooling and complex assemblies. They complement the steelmaking core and bring the company closer to end customers, though they are not the dominant share of revenue.
Trends
- Protectionist trade tariffstailwind
Tariffs of 50% on steel imports, extended to derivative products, could support domestic prices and reduce imports. If these measures were changed or weakened, prices and demand could be affected.
- North American vehicle production recoverymixed
The age of the US vehicle fleet and tariffs on imported vehicles could support domestic production and demand for automotive steel. However, light vehicle production in the third quarter of 2026 was lower than in the same period of 2025.
- Energy and freight cost pressuremixed
Higher freight, electricity and utility costs weigh on US steelmaking. The company says higher steel prices could more than offset these inflationary costs.
- Demand for electrical steel and grid upgradestailwind
The company expects electrical steel to be critical for grid modernization given the shortage of transformers. This market could support better margins but remains smaller than the automotive segment.
Competitive position
Main competitors include electric arc furnace producers using scrap, as well as integrated producers in Asia and Europe. The company argues that these rivals are more exposed to raw material supply disruptions, while Cliffs sources most of its iron ore internally.
Competition for automotive contracts has intensified, with steel producers and alternative material makers seeking higher volume shares. Price pressure during contract negotiations could reduce margins if demand weakens.
- US electric arc furnace steelmakers
Producers using electric arc furnaces and scrap, competing mainly in flat-rolled products.
- POSCO
Korea's largest steelmaker, with which the company signed a memorandum for a possible partnership.
- Importers from countries with excess capacity
Producers outside North America that can pressure prices through low-cost imports.
- Producers of alternative automotive materials
Companies using aluminum or other materials that compete for automotive volumes.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- 📝 Эксплуатация госаппарата 📝 Дела у республиканцев перед промежуточными выборами…Telegram — Rybar (pro-RU OSINT, military) · 25 Oct 2026 · RU
- S&P 500 и Nasdaq выросли вслед за техкомпаниями, Dow Jones слабо снизилсяInterfax Russia (RU) · 20 Oct 2026 · RU
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Sandisk, Marvell, Datadog, Cleveland-Cliffs, Amazon & moreCNBC — Top News · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Cleveland-Cliffs, Intel, Datadog, Amazon & moreCNBC — Top News · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- US Stock Futures Today: Cleveland-Cliffs, Disc, Nvidia, SilganBloomberg Markets · 19 Oct 2026 · EN
- Cliffs’ Stelco Set to Idle Some Steel Operations on Tariff WoesBloomberg Markets · 28 Sept 2026 · EN
- Could Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Win as U.S. Steel Modernization Accelerates?Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Cleveland-Cliffs Shares Rise After $1 Billion Middletown Modernisation PlanYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report20 Oct 2026
- Current report19 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report23 Jul 2026
- Current report23 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report21 Apr 2026
- Current report20 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement02 Apr 2026
- Current report23 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. · 09 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. · 20 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. · 19 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.