olivLaw · US equity research
MP Materials Corp. MP
Metal Mining · SIC 1000 · Vertical: Metal Mining (SIC 1000)
MP Materials is the largest rare earth materials producer in the Western Hemisphere, operating the only scaled rare earth mine and refinery in North America at Mountain Pass, California. The company is now building out a U.S. magnet supply chain backed by a partnership with the Department of War, and its NdPr oxide output has grown sharply, with sales of 1,006 tons in the second quarter of 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, MP Materials Corp. (MP) stock was 35.91 USD (−5.08% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.4 bn USD, beta 1.49, 52-week range 35.91–72.65 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 108.5 m USD (+89.0% YoY), net income of -20.3 m USD, diluted EPS -0.11 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 31.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 35.14 – 45.55
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.07 · band width 25.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 46.64 / 54.75
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.42 / -2.44
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −23.3% | −2.0% | −21.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −25.0% | −2.2% | −22.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −50.6% | +4.3% | −54.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −28.9% | +10.6% | −39.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −34.6% | +10.5% | −45.1 pp | −9.4% |
| 3 years | +118.7% | +73.7% | +45.0 pp | +67.8% |
| 5 years | −1.9% | +61.7% | −63.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 62.9 m | 61.0 m | 60.8 m | 57.4 m | 53.6 m | 52.7 m | 90.6 m | 108.5 m |
| Cost of revenue | 57.3 m | 58.3 m | 48.8 m | 50.4 m | 48.5 m | 45.1 m | 74.2 m | 72.3 m |
| SG&A | 21.5 m | 19.1 m | 24.2 m | 27.4 m | 28.4 m | 32.1 m | 33.6 m | 35.2 m |
| Operating income | -39.5 m | -44.0 m | -34.8 m | -43.9 m | -67.0 m | -3.7 m | -24.1 m | -32.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 19.3 m | 22.1 m | 21.4 m | 20.8 m | 22.5 m | 24.6 m | 32.1 m | 35.4 m |
| Interest expense | 6.6 m | 6.8 m | 7.6 m | 5.4 m | 8.6 m | 9.9 m | 9.8 m | 9.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | -34.9 m | -34.0 m | -27.2 m | -42.7 m | -58.4 m | 10.6 m | -13.6 m | -29.3 m |
| Income tax | -9.4 m | -11.6 m | -4.5 m | -11.9 m | -16.7 m | 1.1 m | -5.7 m | -9.0 m |
| Net income | -25.5 m | -22.3 m | -22.6 m | -30.9 m | -41.8 m | 9.4 m | -8.0 m | -20.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.16 | -0.14 ≈ | -0.14 | -0.19 | -0.24 | 0.05 ≈ | -0.04 | -0.11 |
| Operating cash flow | -6.8 m ≈ | 30.5 m | -63.2 m | -3.7 m ≈ | -42.0 m ≈ | -46.9 m | -1.9 m | 6.8 m ≈ |
| Capex | 46.4 m | 41.7 m | 30.5 m | 29.0 m | 50.5 m | 62.4 m | 77.4 m | 230.3 m |
| Share repurchases | 24.3 m | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 73.4 m | 134.3 m | 332.0 m | 527.5 m | 253.4 m | 203.9 m | 224.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +83.0% | +147.2% | +58.9% | −52.0% | −19.6% | +10.1% |
| Net income | -6.8 m | -21.8 m | 135.0 m | 289.0 m | 24.3 m | -65.4 m | -85.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +114.0% | −91.6% | −369.2% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.10 | -0.27 | 0.73 | 1.52 | 0.14 | -0.57 | -0.50 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +108.2% | −90.8% | −507.1% | unavailable |
| net % | -9.2% | -16.2% | 40.7% | 54.8% | 9.6% | -32.1% | -38.3% |
| Free cash flow | -2.7 m | -19.1 m | -21.9 m | 16.9 m | -199.2 m | -173.1 m | -328.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 998.7 m USD
- Net debt
- -167.3 m USD
- Equity
- 2.0 bn USD
- Total assets
- 3.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.50x
- Current ratio
- 7.24x
- ROE
- -5.7%
- ROA
- -2.8%
- FCF margin
- -146.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 134.3 m | 332.0 m | 527.5 m | 253.4 m | 203.9 m | 224.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 63.8 m | — | 92.2 m | 92.7 m | 192.6 m | 192.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 70.5 m ≈ | — | 435.3 m ≈ | 160.7 m ≈ | 11.3 m ≈ | 31.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 26.8 m | 56.6 m | 75.9 m | 79.2 m | 83.3 m | 112.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -34.7 m | 165.3 m | 327.4 m | -17.7 m | -169.4 m | -149.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 6.9 m | 24.4 m | 18.4 m | 55.7 m | 78.1 m | 89.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -27.8 m ≈ | 189.7 m ≈ | 345.8 m ≈ | 38.0 m ≈ | -91.4 m ≈ | -60.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 5.0 m | 8.9 m | 5.8 m | 5.3 m | 23.0 m | 31.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -39.5 m | 160.2 m | 341.2 m | 33.1 m | -93.3 m | -117.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -17.6 m | 25.2 m | 52.1 m | 8.8 m | -27.9 m | -31.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -21.8 m | 135.0 m | 289.0 m | 24.3 m | -65.4 m | -85.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.27 | 0.73 | 1.52 | 0.14 | -0.57 | -0.50 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 79.7 m | 189.8 m | 193.5 m | 178.2 m | 169.9 m | 170.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 519.7 m | 1.2 bn | 136.6 m | 263.4 m | 282.4 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 3.6 m | 51.0 m | 32.9 m | 10.0 m | 18.6 m | 14.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 32.3 m | 38.7 m | 57.6 m | 95.2 m | 107.9 m | 171.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 561.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 502.0 m | 610.6 m | 935.7 m | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | 89.0 k | 8.9 m | 7.4 m | 6.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 16.2 m | 35.7 m | 15.3 m | 28.0 m | 23.6 m | 36.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.4 m | 0 | — | — | 0 | 67.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 961.0 k | 674.9 m | 678.4 m | 682.0 m | 908.7 m | 931.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 43.1 m | 59.5 m | 97.5 m | 108.6 m | 164.0 m | 299.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 220.4 m | 880.9 m | 925.2 m | 970.7 m | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 853.9 m † | 1.0 bn † | 1.3 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.1 bn † | 2.0 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.3 m | 102.0 m | 343.5 m | 62.7 m | 13.3 m | -155.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 22.4 m | 123.9 m | 326.6 m | 261.9 m | 186.4 m | 172.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -19.1 m ≈ | -21.9 m ≈ | 16.9 m ≈ | -199.2 m ≈ | -173.1 m ≈ | -328.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -22.4 m | -119.4 m | -1.4 bn | 68.7 m | 10.1 m | -206.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 522.0 m | 666.1 m | -24.2 m | -9.9 m | -4.8 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 | 225.1 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -5.2% | 36 (vs peers) | 21% |
| Net margin · Quality | -19.9% | 37 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -24.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -3.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 9.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -7.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality37/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MP Materials Corp. / DE (MP). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 224.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.1%; net margin -19.9%; ROE -4.1%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 9.5x
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -24.8%
- Interest coverage: -3.3x
- FCF yield: -7.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Metal Mining (SIC 1000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 26 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BHPBhp Group Limited | 406.8 bn | 45.2 | 19.5% | 17.6% | −7.9% | +46% / +31% |
| SCCOSouthern Copper Corp | 146.5 bn | 22.6 | 53.2% | 37.3% | +17.4% | +33% / +158% |
| RIORio Tinto PLC | 106.2 bn | 13.9 | 17.0% | 17.3% | +7.4% | +18% / +22% |
| FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc. | 88.7 bn | 28.8 | 21.8% | 16.2% | +1.8% | +44% / +66% |
| HBMHudbay Minerals Inc. | 8.8 bn | 15.4 | 19.7% | 25.7% | +9.4% | +31% / +388% |
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | 7.3 bn | — | -8.5% | -2.4% | −3.0% | −2% / −25% |
| BVNBuenaventura Mining Co Inc | 7.3 bn | 18.1 | 12.6% | 34.9% | +40.1% | +16% / +202% |
| MPMP Materials Corp. | 6.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -19.9% | +10.1% | −35% / +119% |
| EROEro Copper Corp | 3.2 bn | 12.2 | 34.6% | 33.6% | +67.1% | +21% / +150% |
| NEXANexa Resources S.A. | 1.6 bn | 11.9 | 14.6% | 4.4% | +8.5% | +70% / +103% |
| IEIvanhoe Electric Inc. | 1.2 bn | — | -8.4% | -1,138.7% | +11.8% | −46% / −32% |
| USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -23.6% | -2,159.3% | unavailable | −39% / −20% |
| TMCTMC the metals Co Inc. | 1.0 bn | 4.2 | -1,123.2% | — | unavailable | −67% / +103% |
| USASAmericas Gold And Silver Corporation | 986.9 m | — | -61.6% | -74.1% | +17.7% | −31% / +413% |
| ASMAvino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | 769.3 m | 79.0 | 7.0% | 12.2% | +50.8% | −15% / +746% |
| LARLithium Argentina AG | 682.1 m | — | -9.5% | — | +12.9% | −24% / −21% |
| SGMLSigma Lithium Corporation | 626.1 m | — | -67.4% | -45.6% | −27.3% | −50% / −81% |
| GSMFerroglobe PLC | 547.5 m | — | -25.9% | -12.8% | −18.8% | −34% / −49% |
| ALOYRealloys Inc. | 459.5 m | — | -155.8% | -5,144.4% | −5.3% | −5% / +68% |
| THMInternational Tower Hill Mines Ltd | 455.2 m | — | -2.8% | — | unavailable | −10% / +222% |
| LZMLifezone Metals Limited | 336.9 m | — | -16.7% | -1,289.2% | +652.2% | +1% / −60% |
| USAUU.s. Gold Corp. | 186.4 m | — | -55.2% | — | −30.9% | −35% / +239% |
| PZGParamount Gold Nevada Corp. | 83.9 m | — | -46.1% | — | −54.7% | −20% / +146% |
| WWRWestwater Resources, Inc. | 52.5 m | — | -19.1% | — | unavailable | −57% / −33% |
| COPRIdaho Copper Corporation | 25.7 m | — | -187.5% | — | −63.5% | unavailable / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
MP Materials is the largest rare earth materials producer in the Western Hemisphere, operating the only scaled rare earth mine and refinery in North America at Mountain Pass, California. The company is now building out a U.S. magnet supply chain backed by a partnership with the Department of War, and its NdPr oxide output has grown sharply, with sales of 1,006 tons in the second quarter of 2026 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The only integrated, scaled rare earth operation in North America, with a cost position described as competitive.
- A long-term partnership with the Department of War, including price protection and a magnet offtake agreement.
- A solid balance sheet with significant liquidity at the end of 2025.
Weaknesses
- Separated product output has remained below design capacity, and unit costs were high at the start.
- The Magnetics segment is still in its start-up phase, with losses tied to start-up costs.
- Reliance on a single mining and processing site creates significant operational risk.
Opportunities
- Expanding the 10X Facility and magnet capacity could make the company a major U.S. supplier.
- Demand for gadolinium and other heavy rare earths in aerospace and defense could grow.
- Magnet recycling and contracts with technology customers could open new revenue streams.
Threats
- Changes to or challenges of the Department of War funding could affect the company's plans.
- Chinese oversupply or speculative trading could pressure rare earth prices.
- Substitution of magnets or rare earths with other technologies could reduce long-term demand.
Risks
- Dependence on the Department of Warhigh
Funding and price support depend on a government counterparty that could modify or contest the agreements, affecting the business.
- NdPr price volatilityhigh
Revenue remains sensitive to rare earth prices, although price protection softens declines.
- Execution at 10X and Independencemedium
Delays or cost overruns in building and starting up the plants could postpone planned revenue.
- Debt and cash requirementsmedium
Debt service requires significant cash, and credit covenants could limit the company's flexibility.
- Operational risksmedium
Power outages, raw material costs, transport disruptions and environmental requirements could affect production.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company is the only integrated Western source of rare earths, which could matter more as demand for secure supply chains grows.
- Rising NdPr volumes and customer diversification, including in aerospace, could support revenue over the medium term.
- Price protection and EBITDA guarantees for the 10X Facility could reduce uncertainty for part of the cash flows.
What would break the thesis
- Dependence on one government partner and on financing terms that can be revisited could be a major risk.
- Persistent net losses and high start-up costs could extend the path to full profitability.
- Chinese competition and possible substitution could limit price gains and market share.
What to watch
- NdPr production and sales against design capacityQ3 2026
- Start of HREE production of terbium and dysprosiumsecond half 2026
- Construction progress at the 10X Facility in Northlake, Texas2028
- Trend in start-up costs and magnet costs at Independencenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
MP Materials reports two segments: Materials, covering mining and refining at Mountain Pass, and Magnetics, covering the magnet plant in Fort Worth, Texas 1. The company mainly produces NdPr oxide and metal, sold chiefly to Japan, South Korea and broader Asia 1. It stopped sales to China in July 2025 to align with its agreements with the Department of War 1.
The public-private partnership with the Department of War includes an NdPr price floor, a magnet offtake agreement for the 10X Facility and a 400 million USD financing through convertible preferred stock 1. The 10X Facility is expected to begin commissioning in 2028 and, together with the Independence Facility, could lift total U.S. magnet capacity to about 10,000 tons per year 1.
In the second quarter of 2026, consolidated revenue rose 89% year over year, supported by NdPr sales and better market prices, while Magnetics revenue eased slightly on precursor products 3. The company signed a long-term gadolinium supply agreement with a U.S. aerospace and defense customer, expanding its heavy rare earth portfolio 3.
Segments
Market context
The global market for rare earth oxides totaled about 252,000 metric tons in 2025, and Adamas expects roughly 6.0% annual growth through 2040 1. The NdPr segment, which makes up most of the market value, could grow 8.4% a year over the same period 1. Growth depends on demand for magnets in electric vehicles, robotics and defense.
The market is dominated by Chinese producers, and export restrictions China introduced in 2025 caused volatility and a push for alternative supply chains 2. If these trends persist, they could support demand for U.S.-based production 2.
Trends
- Supply chain diversificationtailwind
Governments and rare earth users are accelerating geographic diversification after China's 2025 restrictions 2. This could favor Western producers.
- Demand from robotics and defensetailwind
Physical AI, service robotics and defense systems are increasing demand for high-performance magnets 1.
- Rare earth price volatilityheadwind
Periods of Chinese oversupply or speculative trading can cause large swings in prices 1.
- Trade policy and tariffsmixed
Changes in administration and tariffs can alter demand and transport costs for the company's products 1. The effect is mixed and depends on the policies applied.
Competitive position
The main competitors are Chinese rare earth producers, which control a large part of global supply 1. The company differentiates itself as the only integrated Western source and on its production costs, which it describes as industry-leading 1.
Competition could intensify through industry consolidation and material substitution, which could reduce revenue 1. The Western magnet chain is still developing, and non-U.S. competitors remain active in the market 1.
- Chinese rare earth producers
Control most of global rare earth and magnet material supply, with output regulated by the central government 1.
- Non-U.S. rare earth producers
Companies outside the U.S. that supply rare earths and are cited as alternatives to Western production 1.
- Asian distributors and refiners
Historically the company's concentrate went through a distributor to refiners in China, while sales now go to Japan and South Korea 1.
- NdFeB magnet manufacturers
Global magnet suppliers competing for xEV, robotics and defense demand 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Cameco vs. MP Materials: Does Uranium or Rare Earths Make a Better Stock Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- America’s Rare Earth Bet Nears a Real Test: MP Materials Closes In on GM DeliveriesYahoo Finance — News · 23 Sept 2026 · EN
- Critical Metals Surges 25% as Greenland Security Pact Puts Tanbreez Rare Earth Permit in Focus; USA Rare Earth Climbs 6%, MP Materials Rises 4%Yahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Should You Ignore MP Materials and Buy This Rare-Earth Stock Instead?Yahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- Cameco vs. MP Materials: Which Crucial Renewable Energy Supplier Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Rare Earth Stocks Tumble on U.S.-China Thaw Hopes: USA Rare Earth Sinks 4%, MP Materials Drops 5%, Critical Metals SlipsYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- Jim Cramer Bullish on MP Materials (MP) But Warns Investors Not to Expect Quick ResultsYahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- MP Materials Stock: Bull vs. Bear on This Top Rare Earth BetYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
- MP Materials vs. Enterprise Products: Which "Boring" Business Actually Has the Better Growth Case?Yahoo Finance — News · 27 Aug 2026 · EN
- Critical Metals Spikes 19%, MP Materials and United States Antimony Lag: Is the European Lithium Merger Driving the Move?Yahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Prediction: MP Materials' Aerospace Deal Is Just the First of SeveralYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- MP Materials Stock Moved On The Theme, Not On Mountain PassYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- Is MP Materials Stock a Buy After Earnings?Yahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- First Majestic Silver vs. MP Materials: Which Metals Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- MP Materials vs. The Metals Company: Which Rare-Earth Bet Actually Pays Off First?Yahoo Finance — News · 23 Aug 2026 · EN
- USA Rare Earth Rebuts MP Materials Lawsuit as Rivalry DeepensBloomberg Markets · 22 Jun 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement24 Apr 2026
- Annual report26 Feb 2026
- Current report26 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Nov 2025Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Nov 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / MP Materials Corp. · 26 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / MP Materials Corp. · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / MP Materials Corp. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.