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olivLaw · US equity research

Antero Midstream Corporation AM

Natural Gas Transmission · SIC 4922 · Vertical: Natural Gas Transmission (SIC 4922)

19.86USD−5.16% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Antero Midstream is a natural gas midstream company that gathers, compresses and handles water for production in the Appalachian Basin, almost entirely for Antero Resources. In the second quarter of 2026 gathering volumes rose 19% year over year and revenues reached 327 million USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) stock was 19.86 USD (−5.16% on the day), with market capitalisation 9.4 bn USD, P/E 14.0 on diluted EPS of 1.42 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.63%, beta 0.39, 52-week range 17.15–23.60 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 327.0 m USD (+10.9% YoY), net income of 392.7 m USD (+238.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.82 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
9.4 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.0
Diluted EPS TTM 1.42 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
7.14%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
4.63%
Beta (2y)
0.39
Volatility (1y) 23%
52-week range
17.1523.60

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
38.0
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
20.00 – 21.64
below the lower band · %B -0.08 · band width 7.9%
SMA 50 / 200
21.29 / 21.59
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.11 / -0.11
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−3.4%−1.1%−2.3 pp—
3 months−6.1%−0.5%−5.7 pp—
6 months−6.1%+4.4%−10.5 pp—
Year to date+11.6%+12.3%−0.7 pp—
1 year+15.5%+13.5%+2.0 pp+14.4%
3 years+53.7%+76.4%−22.7 pp+66.7%
5 years+84.2%+63.7%+20.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−15.8%
25 Mar 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−23.0%
25 Mar 2022 → 26 Sept 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+13.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
327.0 m USD
+10.9% YoY
Net income
392.7 m USD
+238.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.82
+241.7% YoY
net / operating
120.1% / 170.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue287.5 m291.1 m305.5 m294.8 m297.0 m314.2 m327.2 m327.0 m
Operating income177.7 m177.2 m186.4 m180.5 m100.5 m188.6 m181.9 m557.2 m
Pre-tax income155.8 m156.8 m168.5 m161.7 m77.2 m155.9 m154.5 m532.8 m
Income tax44.6 m36.1 m44.0 m45.7 m25.3 m37.6 m41.0 m140.1 m
Net income111.2 m120.7 m124.5 m116.0 m51.9 m118.3 m113.5 m392.7 m
Diluted EPS0.23 ≈0.250.260.240.11 ≈0.250.240.82
Operating cash flow232.7 m198.9 m265.2 m ≈212.8 m ≈255.5 m238.6 m254.2 m ≈600.3 m ≈
Capex0———————
Dividends paid108.4 m112.6 m111.5 m ≈107.7 m ≈107.2 m111.1 m109.6 m ≈106.8 m ≈
Share repurchases—28.6 m16.8 m ≈41.3 m ≈48.3 m18.0 m8.3 m ≈27.2 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 15 percentile of its own 26-quarter history (min 12.4, median 17.1, max 46.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue142.9 m792.6 m900.7 m898.2 m920.0 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn
Revenue YoY+105.0%+454.6%+13.6%−0.3%+2.4%+13.2%+6.2%+7.4%
Net income66.6 m-355.1 m-122.5 m331.6 m326.2 m371.8 m400.9 m413.2 m
Net income YoY+1,248.6%−633.1%unavailableunavailable−1.6%+14.0%+7.8%+3.1%
Diluted EPS0.33-0.80-0.260.690.680.770.830.86
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−342.4%unavailableunavailable−1.4%+13.2%+7.8%+3.6%
net %46.6%-44.8%-13.6%36.9%35.5%35.7%36.2%34.8%
Free cash flowunavailable355.0 m595.5 munavailable482.9 m778.8 m774.0 munavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
180.4 m USD
Financial debt
3.2 bn USD
Net debt
3.0 bn USD
Equity
2.0 bn USD
Total assets
5.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.63x
Current ratio
3.41x
ROE
20.2%
ROA
7.1%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
611.9 m
2024
659.2 m
2025
644.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2021verified

EBITDA
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2021derived

Pre-tax income
2023
500.1 m
2024
548.6 m
2025
564.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
128.3 m
2024
147.7 m
2025
151.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
371.8 m
2024
400.9 m
2025
413.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.77
2024
0.83
2025
0.86

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
482.4 m
2024
485.2 m
2025
482.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
66.0 k
2024
—
2025
180.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023verified

Current assets
2023
91.1 m
2024
118.1 m
2025
379.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
3.8 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
5.7 bn
2024
5.8 bn
2025
5.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Feb 2023verified

Long-term debt
2023
3.2 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
96.4 m
2024
100.6 m
2025
111.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.6 bn
2025
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.2 bn †
2024
2.1 bn †
2025
2.0 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
779.1 m
2024
844.0 m
2025
932.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
266.0 k
2024
70.0 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
778.8 m ≈
2024
774.0 m ≈
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-183.2 m
2024
-242.7 m
2025
-169.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-595.8 m
2024
-601.3 m
2025
-500.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
434.8 m
2024
437.6 m
2025
439.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
28.7 m
2025
135.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
8.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
81.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
53.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
31.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
11.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
14.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
16.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
9.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
12.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
13.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
7.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
7.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
12.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
9.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
2.18
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

19.86 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 9.4 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
9.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
31.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
53.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 1188derived 87

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
19.75
USD per share
Mid
26.64
USD per share
High
35.07
USD per share
Price: 19.86 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 34.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 25.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 19.75 – 35.07 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E19.75 – 35.07 (Mid 26.64)
    10 companies used · median multiple 18.8x · quartiles 13.9x – 24.7x
    AROC, DTM, EPD, ET, KMI, KNTK, TRGP, USAC, WES, WMB
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Natural Gas Transmission (SIC 4922)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality14.5%78 (vs peers)19%
Net margin · Quality53.4%100 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth8.9%74 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth8.1%54 (on a fixed band)15%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x4 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation14.0x75 (vs peers)19%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.7%82 (on a fixed band)12%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial4/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth64/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality86/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial82/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial75/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ANTERO MIDSTREAM CORPORATION (AM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 7.4%; net margin 53.4%; ROE 31.6%.

The estimated value range is 19.75–35.07 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.64 USD, the price of 19.86 USD leaves a potential of 34.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 25.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 14.5%
  • Net margin: 53.4%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8.9%
  • P/E (TTM): 14.0x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.7%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.8x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Natural Gas Transmission (SIC 4922) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
14.0x
vertical median 20.9x
below median (−32.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 12.2x
P/S
7.4x
vertical median 3.0x
above median (+147.4%)
P/B
4.2x
vertical median 2.5x
above median (+70.0%)
ROE
31.6%
vertical median 12.8%
above median (+146.5%)
Net margin
53.4%
vertical median 15.8%
above median (+238.5%)
EBIT margin
81.3%
vertical median 28.9%
above median (+181.4%)
Revenue YoY
7.4%
vertical median 10.7%
below median (−30.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 3.9x
Dividend yield
4.6%
vertical median 3.0%
above median (+52.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
WMBWilliams Companies, Inc.83.0 bn27.124.0%25.2%+13.8%+11% / +84%
EPDEnterprise Products Partners L.P.79.2 bn12.0—10.2%−6.4%+12% / +37%
KMIKinder Morgan, Inc.70.2 bn19.511.6%19.6%+12.2%+15% / +79%
ETEnergy Transfer LP67.0 bn12.7—4.9%+3.5%+16% / +40%
TRGPTarga Resources Corp.61.1 bn27.272.6%13.5%+3.9%+63% / +215%
WESWestern Midstream Partners, LP17.6 bn13.6—28.2%+6.6%+8% / +43%
DTMDT Midstream, Inc.12.0 bn25.59.9%35.4%+26.7%−3% / +105%
AMAntero Midstream Corporation9.4 bn14.031.6%53.4%+7.4%+16% / +54%
AROCArchrock, Inc.5.0 bn14.822.6%22.9%+28.7%+17% / +97%
KGSKodiak Gas Services, Inc.4.2 bn48.64.6%5.8%+12.8%+17% / +134%
USACUSA Compression Partners, LP3.5 bn22.3—12.4%+5.0%−3% / +3%
KNTKKinetik Holdings Inc.3.4 bn18.1—10.4%+19.0%+48% / +41%
NGLNGL Energy Partners LP1.9 bn——-3.8%−9.0%+58% / +258%
SMCSummit Midstream Corporation308.0 m9,397.50.1%0.0%+30.8%+15% / +40%
TRPTc Energy Corporation——12.8%23.1%+10.7%+14% / +67%
TCPATranscanada Pipelines Ltd——14.0%23.1%+7.2%−13% / unavailable
TGSGas Transporter Of The South Inc.——18.1%30.3%+23.7%−26% / +67%
NGGNational Grid PLC——8.6%15.8%−7.4%+12% / +29%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
12.38
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
21.84
Total return 10% · Per year 10%
32.84
Total return 65% · Per year 65%
3 years
13.10
Total return -34% · Per year -13%
25.90
Total return 30% · Per year 9%
42.60
Total return 115% · Per year 29%
5 years
13.87
Total return -30% · Per year -7%
30.73
Total return 55% · Per year 9%
55.28
Total return 178% · Per year 23%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 6.48
  • Net margin± 4.53
  • Annual revenue growth± 3.57
  • Annual dilution± 0.38

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

In brief

Antero Midstream is a natural gas midstream company that gathers, compresses and handles water for production in the Appalachian Basin, almost entirely for Antero Resources 1. In the second quarter of 2026 gathering volumes rose 19% year over year and revenues reached 327 million USD 32.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has long-term contracts with fixed fees and CPI adjustments, which give relatively predictable revenue 1.
  • Its assets are strategically placed in the Appalachian Basin, and processing and fractionation capacity was fully utilized in the second quarter of 2026 23.
  • Liquidity improved after the Veolia litigation recovery and the refinancing of notes, strengthening the balance sheet 3.

Weaknesses

  • Almost all revenue comes from one customer, Antero Resources, which concentrates counterparty risk 1.
  • Fresh water volumes fell in the second quarter of 2026, showing the segment's sensitivity to completion activity 3.
  • Interest costs rose after the HG acquisition financing, which weighs on net income 3.

Opportunities

  • The East Side Express could open new revenue streams by delivering dry gas to regional markets 3.
  • Integrating the HG acquisition could drive EBITDA growth, and services to other Appalachian operators could diversify the customer base 32.
  • Available liquidity could support new investment or shareholder returns if market conditions are favorable 3.

Threats

  • A fall in gas prices or drilling activity could reduce volumes and revenue 1.
  • Financial difficulty at Antero Resources could affect payments and lead to renegotiation of contracts 1.
  • Persistent inflation and supply chain disruptions could raise operating and capital costs 2.

Risks

  • Dependence on Antero Resourceshigh

    Almost all revenue comes from Antero Resources, and any problem at this customer could materially affect the company 1.

  • Reduced drilling activityhigh

    If Antero Resources scales back its development program, demand for gathering and water services could decline 1.

  • Sales of dedicated acreagemedium

    Antero Resources may dispose of certain dedicated acreage without the company's consent, which could reduce future volumes 1.

  • Financing costsmedium

    Dependence on capital markets and on Antero Resources' credit rating could raise financing costs 1.

  • Inflationary pressureslow

    Operating and capital costs could rise if inflation or supply chain disruptions persist 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Gathered volumes rose sharply in the second quarter of 2026, and the company reported a new record for production gathered 3.
  • The Veolia recovery allowed debt reduction and a fall below the leverage target, which could create room for new projects 3.
  • The East Side Express and the integration of the HG acquisition could diversify long-term growth sources 32.

What would break the thesis

  • The company depends almost entirely on one customer, and that customer's problems could quickly affect results 1.
  • Fresh water deliveries fell in the second quarter of 2026, which could signal slower completion activity 3.
  • Interest costs rose after the HG acquisition financing, which could limit earnings per share growth 3.

What to watch

  • Second-half EBITDA growth, as guided by the companyQ4 2026
  • Progress of the HG acquisition integration and contract changes with Antero Resources2026
  • Trends in fresh water volumes and completion activityQ3 2026
  • Water handling EBITDA growth the company expects for 20272027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

The business

Antero Midstream Corporation (NYSE: AM) is a growth-oriented midstream energy company that owns, operates and develops midstream assets, mainly serving Antero Resources' production in West Virginia and Ohio 12. Its assets include gathering pipelines, compressor stations, interests in processing and fractionation plants and independent water handling systems 1. The company closed the HG Midstream acquisition for 1.1 billion USD and sold its Utica Shale assets in Ohio for 400 million USD 21.

The business rests on long-term contracts with fixed fees, many adjusted annually for CPI, and revenue depends on gathered gas volumes and water delivered for well completions 1. For Antero Resources the company holds long-term dedications covering substantially all of its current and future acreage 1. Reporting is split into two segments: gathering and processing, and water handling 2.

Market context

The economic backdrop includes elevated inflation, which has stayed around 3% annually in the United States since 2023, along with trade and geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains 2. CPI-linked adjustments in the company's contracts partly offset these cost pressures 21.

Trends

  • Rising gas volumes in Appalachiatailwind

    Higher gathered volumes in the second quarter of 2026, with processing and fractionation capacity fully utilized, point to solid demand for the company's services 3. If well development continues, volumes could support EBITDA growth in the second half of the year 3. Dependence on Antero Resources' drilling program remains a key factor 1.

  • Integration of the HG acquisitionmixed

    The HG Midstream acquisition brought gathering pipelines and integrated water assets in the core of the Marcellus Shale, and the company is working to integrate them through 2026 23. Integration could accelerate EBITDA growth in 2027, but it depends on operational execution and on contract changes with Antero Resources 32.

  • Lower fresh water deliveriesheadwind

    Fresh water deliveries fell year over year in the second quarter of 2026, possibly reflecting less completion activity or lower water use per well 3. If the decline persists, revenue in the water handling segment could be affected 1.

  • Debt reduction after the litigation recoverytailwind

    Receipt of 371 million USD from Veolia and the call of 2028 notes reduced debt, and the company fell below its 3-times leverage target 3. This financial flexibility could support new investment or returns to shareholders 32.

Competitive position

The supplied sources describe competition only in general terms, referring to other operators in the Appalachian Basin to which the company could extend its midstream services 2. The company relies mainly on Antero Resources as its anchor customer, which concentrates its competitive exposure 1. Specific competitors are not named in the supplied sources.

Its competitive position rests on strategically located assets and its relationship with Antero Resources, and extending services to other Appalachian operators could diversify the customer base 2. However, the lack of other major customers could become a weakness if the competitive environment tightens 1.

  • Other midstream operators in the Appalachian Basin

    The sources refer to other Appalachian Basin operators to which the company could offer midstream services, without naming them 2.

  • Appalachian producers

    Regional producers could become customers or rivals for dedicated acreage, but the sources do not name them 1.

  • Third-party processing and fractionation facilities

    The sources describe the processing joint venture but do not list other providers of such services 2.

  • Regional intrastate pipelines

    The East Side Express could compete with other regional pipelines in West Virginia, though the sources do not identify them 3.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Antero Midstream Corporation · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Antero Midstream Corporation · 29 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Antero Midstream Corporation · 29 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.