olivLaw · US equity research
National Grid plc NGG
Natural Gas Transmission · SIC 4922 · Vertical: Natural Gas Transmission (SIC 4922)
National Grid plc owns and operates electricity and natural gas transmission and distribution networks in the UK and the north-eastern United States, a role seen as essential for growing energy demand. The company has announced an intention to invest at least 70 billion pounds over the next five years, driven by demand from data centres and electrification.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, National Grid plc (NGG) stock was 85.22 USD (+2.89% on the day), with beta 0.17, 52-week range 73.54–93.93 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 75.88 – 86.07
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 12.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 78.53 / 83.39
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.78 / 1.43
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +12.1% | −1.1% | +13.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.2% | −0.5% | +6.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.0% | +4.4% | −7.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | +10.2% | +12.3% | −2.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +13.4% | +13.5% | −0.1 pp | +14.4% |
| 3 years | +37.2% | +76.4% | −39.2 pp | +66.7% |
| 5 years | +32.3% | +63.7% | −31.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.3 bn | 14.9 bn | 13.4 bn | 13.7 bn | 18.4 bn | 21.7 bn | 19.9 bn | 18.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +1.4% | −2.1% | −10.5% | +2.3% | +35.0% | +17.4% | −8.4% | −7.4% |
| Net income | 3.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 7.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Net income YoY | −54.5% | −57.4% | −16.3% | +29.7% | +43.5% | +231.4% | −70.6% | +26.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.02 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 0.65 | 1.96 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −50.5% | −56.5% | −18.2% | +27.5% | +40.4% | +201.8% | −70.9% | +7.5% |
| net % | 23.3% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 36.0% | 11.5% | 15.8% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Mar 2025
- Cash
- 1.2 bn GBP
- Financial debt
- 42.9 bn GBP
- Net debt
- 41.7 bn GBP
- Equity
- 37.8 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 106.7 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- 1.13x
- Current ratio
- 1.35x
- ROE
- 8.6%
- ROA
- 2.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Margins
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13.4 bn | 13.7 bn | 18.4 bn | 21.7 bn | 19.9 bn | 18.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Research & development | 9.0 m | 12.0 m | 11.0 m | 23.0 m | 32.0 m | 43.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 1.0 bn | 853.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 370.0 m | 360.0 m | 1.3 bn | 876.0 m | 831.0 m | 821.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 7.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.36 | 0.46 | 0.65 | 1.96 | 0.57 | 0.61 | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 3.5 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.24 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.30 | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025derived |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 73.0 m | 157.0 m | 204.0 m | 163.0 m | 559.0 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Receivables | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 549.0 m | 439.0 m | 511.0 m | 876.0 m | 828.0 m | 557.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 5.8 bn | 9.9 bn | 18.0 bn | 9.1 bn | 10.4 bn | 14.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 49.8 bn | 47.0 bn | 57.5 bn | 64.4 bn | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Jun 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 5.7 bn | 4.6 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.8 bn | 9.7 bn | 9.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 67.6 bn | 67.2 bn | 94.9 bn | 92.7 bn | 98.3 bn | 106.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 26.7 bn | 27.5 bn | 33.3 bn | 40.0 bn | 42.2 bn | 42.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 8.6 bn | 9.4 bn | 24.8 bn | 9.1 bn | 11.4 bn | 10.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 47.8 bn | 47.4 bn | 71.0 bn | 63.1 bn | 68.4 bn | 68.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 19.8 bn | 19.9 bn | 23.9 bn | 29.6 bn | 29.9 bn | 37.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | 4.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.1 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.9 bn | 8.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 892.0 m | 1.4 bn | 922.0 m | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 29 May 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Jun 2020verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.1% | 0 (vs peers) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | 15.8% | 47 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 2.7x | 19 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 46 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet30/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality18/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NATIONAL GRID PLC (NGG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 18.4 bn GBP in 2025; YoY growth -7.4%; net margin 15.8%; ROE 8.6%.
The estimated value range is 5.71–9.15 GBP per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 5.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -1.9%
- Interest coverage: 2.7x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Natural Gas Transmission (SIC 4922) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMBWilliams Companies, Inc. | 83.0 bn | 27.1 | 24.0% | 25.2% | +13.8% | +11% / +84% |
| EPDEnterprise Products Partners L.P. | 79.2 bn | 12.0 | — | 10.2% | −6.4% | +12% / +37% |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | 70.2 bn | 19.5 | 11.6% | 19.6% | +12.2% | +15% / +79% |
| ETEnergy Transfer LP | 67.0 bn | 12.7 | — | 4.9% | +3.5% | +16% / +40% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | 61.1 bn | 27.2 | 72.6% | 13.5% | +3.9% | +63% / +215% |
| WESWestern Midstream Partners, LP | 17.6 bn | 13.6 | — | 28.2% | +6.6% | +8% / +43% |
| DTMDT Midstream, Inc. | 12.0 bn | 25.5 | 9.9% | 35.4% | +26.7% | −3% / +105% |
| AMAntero Midstream Corporation | 9.4 bn | 14.0 | 31.6% | 53.4% | +7.4% | +10% / +49% |
| AROCArchrock, Inc. | 5.0 bn | 14.8 | 22.6% | 22.9% | +28.7% | +17% / +97% |
| KGSKodiak Gas Services, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 48.6 | 4.6% | 5.8% | +12.8% | +17% / +134% |
| USACUSA Compression Partners, LP | 3.5 bn | 22.3 | — | 12.4% | +5.0% | −3% / +3% |
| KNTKKinetik Holdings Inc. | 3.4 bn | 18.1 | — | 10.4% | +19.0% | +48% / +41% |
| NGLNGL Energy Partners LP | 1.9 bn | — | — | -3.8% | −9.0% | +58% / +258% |
| SMCSummit Midstream Corporation | 308.0 m | 9,397.5 | 0.1% | 0.0% | +30.8% | +15% / +40% |
| NGGNational Grid PLC | — | — | 8.6% | 15.8% | −7.4% | +13% / +37% |
| TGSGas Transporter Of The South Inc. | — | — | 18.1% | 30.3% | +23.7% | −26% / +67% |
| TRPTc Energy Corporation | — | — | 12.8% | 23.1% | +10.7% | +14% / +67% |
| TCPATranscanada Pipelines Ltd | — | — | 14.0% | 23.1% | +7.2% | −13% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NGG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Jun 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (28 Aug 2026), 6-K (03 Aug 2026), 6-K (31 Jul 2026).
In brief
National Grid plc owns and operates electricity and natural gas transmission and distribution networks in the UK and the north-eastern United States, a role seen as essential for growing energy demand. The company has announced an intention to invest at least 70 billion pounds over the next five years, driven by demand from data centres and electrification 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Regulated assets that are hard to replicate and have low obsolescence offer predictable revenue and a low-risk profile, supported by a strong position in regions with growing demand.
- Experience in executing large projects and established relationships with regulators and local authorities are an important advantage for network expansion.
- Geographic diversification between the UK and the United States reduces dependence on a single regulatory framework or economy.
Weaknesses
- The high scale of required investment increases the need for external financing and sensitivity to the cost of capital.
- Ageing networks require accelerated replacement, which can generate unforeseen costs and pressure on reliability.
- Earnings depend heavily on regulator decisions on returns and the level of permitted investment.
Opportunities
- Growing demand from data centres, electrification and industry could expand the asset base and connection opportunities.
- Smart grid technologies and artificial intelligence could unlock additional capacity without large new construction.
- Interconnectors and energy storage could support the integration of renewables and capture price differences between markets.
Threats
- Political pressure on bill affordability could limit tariff increases and approved investment.
- Geopolitical uncertainty and volatile gas markets could affect costs and security of supply.
- Physical and cyber threats to networks could cause disruptions, remediation costs and reputational risks.
Risks
- Regulatory riskhigh
Regulator decisions on tariffs and returns could reduce revenue or delay planned investment.
- Project execution riskhigh
Exceeding budgets or deadlines for large capital projects could affect profitability.
- Affordability riskmedium
Social pressure on bills could lead to political intervention that limits the company's earnings.
- Security riskmedium
Cyber attacks and physical threats to infrastructure could cause outages and additional costs.
- Currency risklow
US activities are reported in pounds sterling, which makes results sensitive to exchange rate movements.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If electricity demand keeps growing, the company's regulated networks could support long-term growth of the asset base.
- The large investment plan and progressive dividend policy could offer investors a combination of growth and predictable income.
- Its position in the energy transition and operational experience could allow the company to win new projects of national interest.
What would break the thesis
- If regulators limit returns or reduce approved investment, revenue growth could be slower than expected.
- High capital costs and financing needs could strain the balance sheet, especially if interest rates remain high.
- Political pressure on bills could make network development a costlier and more contested subject.
What to watch
- Progress of the investment plan of at least 70 billion pounds2027
- Regulator decisions in the UK and New York on tariffs and returns2027
- Development of underlying earnings per share against the 8-10% growth targetnext annual report
- Delivery of network expansion and capacity projects for data centres2029
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 03 Jun 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (28 Aug 2026), 6-K (03 Aug 2026), 6-K (31 Jul 2026).
The business
National Grid builds, owns and operates regulated energy infrastructure that connects energy sources to end customers. In the UK, its activities include the high-voltage transmission network in England and Wales and the country's largest electricity distribution network, serving a population of 20 million people 1. In the US, the company operates networks in New York and New England, as well as large-scale energy project development through National Grid Ventures 1.
Revenue is generated mainly from tariffs approved by regulators for the use of the networks, which gives a largely predictable long-term earnings picture. Underlying operating profit reached 5.68 billion pounds in fiscal 2025/26, and capital investment reached 11.58 billion pounds 1. The company describes its model as heavy assets with low obsolescence, but it depends on its relationship with regulators and its ability to deliver large projects on time and on budget 1.
The chief executive changed in November 2025, and the new chief executive presented a strategic framework focused on operational execution, digitalisation and regulatory policy. The company aims for underlying earnings per share growth of 8-10% a year, based on its asset base and planned investment 1.
Segments
UK Electricity Transmission
The high-voltage network in England and Wales, which connects generators, storage and large customers. This activity accounts for most of the group's regulated asset base and underlying profit 1.
New England and New York
US activities include electricity and natural gas transmission and distribution, serving millions of customers in New York and Massachusetts. These networks are central to adding capacity and connecting large customers 1.
National Grid Ventures
The division that develops and operates large projects, including interconnectors between the UK and Europe, US competitive transmission, and power generation and storage. It is the smallest component by asset base but adds diversification 1.
Market context
Electricity demand is rising again in the UK and the north-eastern US after years of weak growth, driven by the electrification of transport and heating, data centres and advanced manufacturing 1. This makes transmission and distribution networks a central element of national economic strategy. The market is however regulated, and the ability to obtain approvals for investment remains a decisive factor.
The shift to low-carbon sources is changing the supply mix: in 2025 renewables generated a record share of UK electricity, and natural gas remains important for balancing the system 1. Connection and modernisation requirements are growing, which supports demand for the company's services.
Trends
- Rising electricity demandtailwind
Electrification, data centres and advanced industry are increasing electricity demand, requiring larger and smarter networks.
- Network investmenttailwind
The plan to invest at least 70 billion pounds over five years supports growth of the regulated asset base.
- Affordability pressureheadwind
Customers face high bills, which could limit the returns regulators are willing to accept.
- Digitalisation and artificial intelligencemixed
Technologies such as dynamic line rating and digital twins could unlock existing capacity, but they require investment and expertise.
Competitive position
National Grid operates regulated networks, and direct competition is limited by the monopoly nature of transmission and distribution. However, in project development, interconnectors and generation, the company competes with other developers and energy infrastructure operators in both the UK and the US 1.
Competitive pressure also comes from investors seeking similar assets and from other utilities building their own networks. The company's ability to stay efficient and win project approvals will influence its relative position 1.
- Avangrid, Inc.
US utility with energy transmission and distribution activities that may compete for projects and investment in similar infrastructure.
- Eversource EnergyES
Operator of electricity and gas networks in New England, active in the same geographic region as the company's distribution division.
- Consolidated EdisonED
New York utility operating distribution and transmission networks, relevant for comparing regional activities.
- Interconnector and transmission project developers
Private companies and consortia developing interconnectors and competitive transmission lines, competing with the major projects division.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Lebanon and Qatar negotiate over power generation agreement to save Lebanese national gridbne IntelliNews (EN) · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- National Grid to site biggest substation on Teesside, near planned AI datacentreThe Guardian World · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- UK National Grid to Extend France Power Link Operation to 2050Oil Price · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Reform UK Threatens Legal Challenges to National Grid ProjectsBloomberg Markets · 19 May 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)31 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Jul 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / National Grid plc · 03 Jun 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.