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olivLaw · US equity research

American Public Education, Inc. APEI

Services-Educational Services · SIC 8200 · Vertical: Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200)

42.41USD+0.19% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) provides online and campus-based postsecondary education to about 108.6 thousand students through three subsidiary institutions, many of them from the military community. In August 2026 the company completed the combination of those institutions into a single HLC-accredited institution and raised its 2026 revenue and profit guidance, which makes its trajectory worth close monitoring.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) stock was 42.41 USD (+0.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 776.2 m USD, P/E 17.5 on diluted EPS of 2.43 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.71, 52-week range 30.67–60.86 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 171.7 m USD (+5.5% YoY), net income of 9.8 m USD (+117.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.52 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
776.2 m USD
shares as of 06 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.5
Diluted EPS TTM 2.43 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.73%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.71
Volatility (1y) 45%
52-week range
30.6760.86

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
38.0
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
40.94 – 52.19
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.13 · band width 24.1%
SMA 50 / 200
45.14 / 49.68
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.90 / -0.12
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−4.5%−1.1%−3.4 pp—
3 months−21.2%−0.5%−20.7 pp—
6 months−24.1%+4.4%−28.5 pp—
Year to date+12.2%+12.3%−0.1 pp—
1 year+34.6%+13.5%+21.1 pp−30.6%
3 years+804.3%+76.4%+727.9 pp−18.2%
5 years+61.5%+63.7%−2.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−33.3%
20 Apr 2026 → 30 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−85.0%
08 Nov 2021 → 20 Jun 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+10.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
171.7 m USD
+5.5% YoY
Net income
9.8 m USD
+117.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.52
unavailable YoY
net / operating
5.7% / 7.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue153.1 m164.1 m164.6 m162.8 m163.2 m158.3 m174.7 m171.7 m
Cost of revenue75.4 m71.7 m74.9 m78.4 m74.7 m69.0 m74.6 m76.6 m
Operating income4.1 m21.5 m12.2 m7.0 m9.7 m19.0 m21.6 m13.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation5.1 m3.9 m4.0 m4.1 m3.9 m4.1 m4.2 m4.0 m
Interest expense1.9 m—2.4 m2.4 m2.5 m—2.0 m1.4 m
Pre-tax income3.5 m21.0 m11.4 m5.9 m8.6 m17.8 m19.2 m14.2 m
Income tax1.2 m8.0 m2.5 m1.4 m3.1 m5.2 m1.5 m4.4 m
Net income2.3 m13.0 m8.9 m4.5 m5.6 m12.6 m17.7 m9.8 m
Diluted EPS0.040.630.41-0.020.300.670.940.52
Operating cash flow14.1 m ≈1.6 m37.0 m14.8 m ≈21.7 m ≈-11.6 m63.3 m12.1 m ≈
Capex6.3 m ≈3.4 m3.9 m3.7 m ≈4.2 m ≈4.1 m2.5 m4.7 m ≈
Share repurchases92.0 k ≈13.0 k3.7 m30.0 k ≈206.0 k ≈333.0 k8.7 m4.1 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 3 percentile of its own 31-quarter history (min 16.5, median 24.9, max 70.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue297.7 m286.3 m321.8 m418.8 m606.3 m600.5 m624.6 m648.9 m
Revenue YoY−0.5%−3.8%+12.4%+30.1%+44.8%−1.0%+4.0%+3.9%
Net income25.6 m10.0 m18.8 m17.8 m-115.0 m-47.3 m16.1 m31.6 m
Net income YoY+21.4%−60.9%+88.0%−5.7%−747.8%unavailableunavailable+95.8%
Diluted EPS1.540.621.250.97-6.08-2.930.551.36
Diluted EPS YoY+19.4%−59.7%+101.6%−22.4%−726.8%unavailableunavailable+147.3%
net %8.6%3.5%5.8%4.2%-19.0%-7.9%2.6%4.9%
Free cash flow34.7 m31.1 m39.9 m4.4 m12.8 m31.6 m27.8 m46.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
174.1 m USD
Financial debt
94.7 m USD
Net debt
-79.4 m USD
Equity
294.8 m USD
Total assets
521.4 m USD
Debt / equity
0.32x
Current ratio
3.46x
ROE
10.5%
ROA
5.8%
FCF margin
7.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
600.5 m
2024
624.6 m
2025
648.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
292.9 m
2024
295.7 m
2025
297.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
307.7 m ≈
2024
328.9 m ≈
2025
351.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived

Operating income
2023
-48.3 m
2024
33.1 m
2025
47.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
27.8 m
2024
19.3 m
2025
16.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-20.5 m ≈
2024
52.4 m ≈
2025
64.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Mar 2023verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-52.8 m
2024
30.9 m
2025
43.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-10.7 m
2024
10.4 m
2025
12.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-47.3 m
2024
16.1 m
2025
31.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-2.93
2024
0.55
2025
1.36

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
18.2 m
2024
18.1 m
2025
18.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
116.7 m
2024
131.9 m
2025
174.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
51.0 m
2024
62.5 m
2025
65.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
217.4 m
2024
260.6 m
2025
259.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
87.5 m
2024
73.4 m
2025
70.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
59.6 m
2024
59.6 m
2025
59.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
31.5 m
2024
28.2 m
2025
28.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
557.4 m
2024
570.1 m
2025
521.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
8.7 m
2024
7.8 m
2025
4.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
94.7 m
2024
93.4 m
2025
94.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
74.0 m
2024
79.2 m
2025
75.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
265.4 m
2024
266.2 m
2025
226.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
292.0 m †
2024
303.9 m †
2025
294.8 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
45.5 m
2024
48.9 m
2025
62.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
13.9 m
2024
21.1 m
2025
15.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
31.6 m ≈
2024
27.8 m ≈
2025
46.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-13.8 m
2024
-21.1 m
2025
4.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-16.9 m
2024
-13.2 m
2025
-49.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
10.7 m
2024
4.2 m
2025
4.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
15.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
45.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
95.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
10.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
147.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
65.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
55.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
10.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
15.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
8.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
21.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
14.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-59.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
85.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
15.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
70.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
153.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
107.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
20 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
9 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
776.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
716.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
17.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
11.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
11.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
9.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 58 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

42.41 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 776.2 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
776.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
17.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
9.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
15.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
6.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 06 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 2428derived 162

Score by group

  • Valuation54
  • Balance sheet68
  • Quality80
  • Growth19
  • Returns25

Estimated value range

Low
26.31
USD per share
Mid
33.86
USD per share
High
40.08
USD per share
Price: 42.41 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -20.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -25.2% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 15.87 – 40.16 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA36.76 – 40.00 (Mid 37.63)
    5 companies used · median multiple 7.9x · quartiles 7.7x – 8.4x
    LAUR, LFS, LGCY, LINC, LRN
  • Peers: P/E15.87 – 40.16 (Mid 30.09)
    15 companies used · median multiple 12.4x · quartiles 6.5x – 16.5x
    CVSA, IH, LAUR, LFS, LGCY, LINC, LOPE, LRN, PRDO, PXED, STG, STRA, TAL, VSA, YOUL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 58/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality21.8%82 (vs peers)13%
Net margin · Quality6.8%58 (vs peers)8%
FCF conversion · Quality153.4%100 (on a fixed band)8%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.3%19 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.7x56 (vs peers)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.2x100 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation17.5x37 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation9.0x33 (vs peers)13%
FCF yield · Valuation9.0%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.7%25 (on a fixed band)8%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet68/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial19/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial25/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation54/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

AMERICAN PUBLIC EDUCATION, INC. (APEI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 648.9 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.9%; net margin 6.8%; ROE 15.6%; net debt/EBITDA -0.7x.

The estimated value range is 26.31–40.08 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 33.86 USD, the price of 42.41 USD leaves a potential of -20.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -25.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 58/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 21.8%
  • FCF conversion: 153.4%
  • Current ratio: 3.2x
  • FCF yield: 9.0%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.3%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.7%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
17.5x
vertical median 14.0x
above median (+24.9%)
EV/EBITDA
9.0x
vertical median 7.9x
above median (+13.9%)
P/S
1.2x
vertical median 2.0x
below median (−42.3%)
P/B
2.5x
vertical median 2.6x
below median (−5.2%)
ROE
15.6%
vertical median 8.2%
above median (+91.1%)
Net margin
6.8%
vertical median 3.0%
above median (+125.6%)
EBIT margin
9.6%
vertical median 1.5%
above median (+534.1%)
Revenue YoY
3.9%
vertical median 5.9%
below median (−34.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.7x
vertical median -0.3x
below median
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.80.7 bn169.712.4%8.4%+15.5%+2% / −36%
LAURLaureate Education, Inc.4.8 bn12.934.1%20.3%+8.6%+14% / +168%
CVSACovista Inc.4.1 bn17.017.9%12.8%+9.3%+34% / +118%
COE51Talk Online Education Group4.1 bn——-17.6%+88.6%−73% / +43%
LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc.3.8 bn16.135.9%21.9%+7.1%−4% / +10%
LRNStride, Inc.3.3 bn10.920.9%13.2%+4.7%+25% / +31%
DAOYoudao, Inc.2.5 bn159.2—1.6%+9.6%+105% / +397%
PRDOPerdoceo Education Corp1.9 bn10.917.6%20.6%+24.2%+7% / +72%
STRAStrategic Education, Inc.1.7 bn12.48.2%10.5%+4.0%−5% / −16%
YQ17 Education & Technology Group Inc.1.5 bn—-46.5%-145.6%−41.5%−41% / +14%
UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc1.2 bn36.310.5%3.9%+14.0%−3% / +91%
PXEDPhoenix Education Partners, Inc.794.4 m9.530.1%8.7%+1.0%−36% / unavailable
APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc.776.2 m17.515.6%6.8%+3.9%+35% / +804%
LINCLincoln Educational Services Corporation637.9 m28.011.9%4.0%+17.8%−2% / +117%
JZJianzhi Education Technology Group Company Limited522.3 m—-44.4%-22.4%−70.6%−98% / −100%
GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc.373.9 m—-20.8%-5.3%+40.9%−0% / −9%
IHiHuman Inc.245.2 m22.810.0%11.8%−8.7%−60% / −59%
FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc.210.5 m46.66.8%12.1%+7.6%−30% / +13%
LXEHLixiang Education Holding Co. Ltd.155.2 m—-83.1%-395.4%−1.9%−63% / −99%
LGCYLegacy Education Inc.118.1 m14.019.5%11.4%+24.8%−12% / unavailable
EEIQEpicQuest Education Group International Limited93.6 m—-34.8%-27.2%+9.6%−23% / −81%
VSAVisionSys AI Inc81.8 m0.3—164,963.8%−99.9%−97% / −100%
CHGGChegg, Inc71.1 m—-30.7%-17.2%−39.0%−34% / −94%
AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd.62.3 m—-2.9%-2.6%+0.8%−61% / −10%
LFSLEIFRAS Co., Ltd.53.1 m18.523.7%3.7%unavailable−60% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for APEI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
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Base
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
25.17
Total return -41% · Per year -41%
44.55
Total return 5% · Per year 5%
67.17
Total return 58% · Per year 58%
3 years
23.35
Total return -45% · Per year -18%
46.61
Total return 10% · Per year 3%
77.31
Total return 82% · Per year 22%
5 years
21.67
Total return -49% · Per year -13%
48.76
Total return 15% · Per year 3%
88.99
Total return 110% · Per year 16%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 11.65
  • Net margin± 8.16
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.84
  • Annual dilution± 0.69

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) provides online and campus-based postsecondary education to about 108.6 thousand students through three subsidiary institutions, many of them from the military community. In August 2026 the company completed the combination of those institutions into a single HLC-accredited institution and raised its 2026 revenue and profit guidance, which makes its trajectory worth close monitoring.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds a strong position in military education, described as the number one educator of active-duty military and veterans 1. It also has a solid base of nursing programs across several credential levels 1.
  • Revenue and profit grew in 2026 and the company holds substantial liquidity to fund investment 3.
  • Combining the institutions into one accredited entity could simplify operations and reporting 23.

Weaknesses

  • APUS revenue depends heavily on Department of Defense tuition assistance, which makes the company vulnerable to budget interruptions 1.
  • Pass rates on the NCLEX exam at some nursing programs and restrictions on RU expansion are weak points 1.

Opportunities

  • Developing a global digital university and new programs could attract students beyond the military community 1.
  • Expanding the nursing campus network, such as the new Orlando campus, could raise Health+ revenue 13.
  • If regulation becomes more predictable, the company could regain confidence and enrollment from students relying on federal aid.

Threats

  • Government shutdowns and reduced military budgets could quickly reduce APUS enrollments 1.
  • Tighter federal student loan rules could restrict students' access to financing 1.
  • Competition from nonprofits, the armed forces and colleges expanding online could erode market share 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on military programshigh

    A large share of APUS enrollment comes from Department of Defense tuition assistance, and budget interruptions can halt registrations 1.

  • Federal student financing rulesmedium

    New federal loan caps and a new accountability framework could reduce the availability of certain programs 1.

  • Integration of the three institutionsmedium

    Combining APUS, RU and HCN carries operational and regulatory risks, with the second step of the combination expected in the third quarter of 2026 12.

  • NCLEX pass ratesmedium

    If NCLEX pass rates remain low, RU and HCN could lose students or accreditation standing 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If revenue growth in Health+ and Military+ continues and the 2026 guidance is met, profitability could rise considerably 3.
  • High liquidity and the share repurchase program give the company financial flexibility 3.
  • A leading position in military and nursing education could support demand over the longer term 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Reliance on federal funding for military programs makes revenue vulnerable to budget interruptions 1.
  • Integrating the institutions and expanding campuses carries execution costs and risks that could compress margins 12.

What to watch

  • Completion of the second step of the institutional combination and the required approvalsQ3 2026
  • Delivery against the full-year 2026 revenue and net income guidance2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

APEI is a postsecondary education provider operating through three subsidiary institutions: American Public University System (APUS), Rasmussen University (RU) and Hondros College of Nursing (HCN) 1. APUS delivers programs exclusively online and centres on active-duty military, veterans and their families 1. RU and HCN focus on nursing and health sciences education, from diploma-level practical nursing to doctoral programs 1. From 2026 the institutions were unified into one entity, American Public University System, with two divisions 23.

Segments

Military+ (formerly APUS)

The Military+ segment offers online adult education aimed at military members, veterans and their families, through American Military University and American Public University 3. In the second quarter of 2026 it generated 85.5 mn USD of revenue, up 4.7%, driven by higher net course registrations 3.

Health+ (formerly RU and HCN)

The Health+ segment covers the nursing and health programs of Rasmussen University and Hondros College of Nursing, with both campus and online students 13. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 11.0% to 86.2 mn USD, supported by higher enrollment and modest tuition increases 3.

Trends

  • Dependence on federal funding for military studentsheadwind

    The 2025 government shutdown suspended Department of Defense tuition assistance and course registrations fell sharply 1. Supplemental funding under the OBBBA law restored part of the registrations, but its future availability is uncertain 1.

  • Growing demand in health care educationtailwind

    Health+ revenue and enrollment rose in the second quarter of 2026, and the company opened a new campus in Orlando 3. Demand for qualified nursing staff supports this trend.

  • Technology and digital deliverymixed

    APEI is investing in technology, including artificial intelligence, and is transforming APU into a global digital university 1. If these initiatives succeed, they could attract new categories of students.

Competitive position

Online education for the military faces competition from both nonprofit and for-profit institutions, as well as from colleges near military bases 1. The armed forces themselves offer distance learning programs, and traditional universities are expanding their online offerings 1. In nursing, competition comes from equally flexible nursing schools with comparable tuition 1.

  • Nonprofit and public institutions with online programs

    Traditional universities expanding online offerings and competing for military students 1.

  • For-profit institutions serving military students

    Direct competitors for the same pool of military and veteran students 1.

  • Community colleges near military installations

    Provide on-campus education to personnel stationed nearby 1.

  • Nursing schools and allied health colleges

    Compete in practical nursing, associate and bachelor nursing programs on tuition, flexibility and reputation 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / American Public Education, Inc. · 12 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / American Public Education, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / American Public Education, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.