olivLaw · US equity research
LEIFRAS Co., Ltd. LFS
Services-Educational Services · SIC 8200 · Vertical: Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200)
LEIFRAS is a Japanese operator of children's sports schools that pairs sports education with community social services such as school club support. The company listed in October 2025, and revenue rose to $74.8 million in fiscal 2025 from $65.9 million in fiscal 2024.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, LEIFRAS Co., Ltd. (LFS) stock was 2.03 USD (−1.46% on the day), with market capitalisation 53.1 m USD, P/E 18.5 on diluted EPS of 0.11 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.72, 52-week range 1.68–11.37 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 39.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.98 – 2.34
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.13 · band width 16.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.18 / 2.32
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / -0.02
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.9% | −2.0% | −4.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −12.5% | −2.2% | −10.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.6% | +4.3% | −14.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −26.7% | +10.6% | −37.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −22.5% | +10.5% | −33.0 pp | −30.3% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +73.7% | unavailable | −16.5% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +61.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 25.2, median 25.2, max 25.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | 74.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | unavailable | 418.6 m | 2.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −99.3% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | 0.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | 3.7% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | 2.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 16.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 793.5 k USD
- Net debt
- -15.3 m USD
- Equity
- 11.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 29.8 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.07x
- Current ratio
- 1.54x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 9.4%
- FCF margin
- 3.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 74.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | — | 52.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | — | 22.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| SG&A | — | 18.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | — | 4.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | 804.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | — | 4.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | 105.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | — | 3.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | — | 1.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 418.6 m | 2.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | 0.11 | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 26.5 m | 25.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 16.2 m | 16.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 4.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 137.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 22.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 615.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 178.6 k | 178.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 29.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 637.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 155.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 14.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 18.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | — | 11.8 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | 26.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | — | 3.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 271.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 2.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | — | -341.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | — | -2.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 67 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 53.1 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet87
- Valuation49
- Quality73
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.72 – 2.23 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA1.99 – 2.23 (Mid 2.13)5 companies used · median multiple 8.4x · quartiles 7.7x – 9.0xAPEI, LAUR, LGCY, LINC, LRN
- Peers: P/E0.72 – 1.89 (Mid 1.36)15 companies used · median multiple 12.4x · quartiles 6.5x – 17.2xAPEI, CVSA, IH, LAUR, LGCY, LINC, LOPE, LRN, PRDO, PXED, STG, STRA, TAL, VSA, YOUL
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 67/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.7% | 50 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 97.1% | 96 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -3.2x | 89 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 38.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 62 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 18.5x | 32 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.9x | 56 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.1% | 64 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet87/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation49/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LEIFRAS Co., Ltd. (LFS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 74.8 m USD in 2025; net margin 3.7%; ROE 23.7%; net debt/EBITDA -3.2x.
The estimated value range is 1.36–2.06 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.75 USD, the price of 2.03 USD leaves a potential of -14.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -16.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 67/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 97.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -3.2x
- Interest coverage: 38.1x
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Educational Services (SIC 8200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | 80.7 bn | 169.7 | 12.4% | 8.4% | +15.5% | +2% / −36% |
| LAURLaureate Education, Inc. | 4.8 bn | 12.9 | 34.1% | 20.3% | +8.6% | +14% / +168% |
| CVSACovista Inc. | 4.1 bn | 17.0 | 17.9% | 12.8% | +9.3% | +34% / +118% |
| COE51Talk Online Education Group | 4.1 bn | — | — | -17.6% | +88.6% | −73% / +43% |
| LOPEGrand Canyon Education, Inc. | 3.9 bn | 18.2 | 31.0% | 19.6% | +7.1% | −4% / +10% |
| LRNStride, Inc. | 3.3 bn | 10.9 | 20.9% | 13.2% | +4.7% | +25% / +31% |
| NAMIJinxin Technology Holding Company | 2.6 bn | — | -89.7% | -22.8% | +6.1% | −89% / unavailable |
| DAOYoudao, Inc. | 2.5 bn | 159.2 | — | 1.6% | +9.6% | +105% / +397% |
| PRDOPerdoceo Education Corp | 1.9 bn | 10.9 | 17.6% | 20.6% | +24.2% | +7% / +72% |
| STRAStrategic Education, Inc. | 1.7 bn | 12.4 | 8.2% | 10.5% | +4.0% | −5% / −16% |
| YQ17 Education & Technology Group Inc. | 1.5 bn | — | -46.5% | -145.6% | −41.5% | −41% / +14% |
| UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc | 1.2 bn | 36.3 | 10.5% | 3.9% | +14.0% | −3% / +91% |
| PXEDPhoenix Education Partners, Inc. | 794.4 m | 9.5 | 30.1% | 8.7% | +1.0% | −36% / unavailable |
| APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc. | 776.2 m | 17.5 | 15.6% | 6.8% | +3.9% | +22% / +439% |
| LINCLincoln Educational Services Corporation | 637.9 m | 28.0 | 11.9% | 4.0% | +17.8% | −2% / +117% |
| JZJianzhi Education Technology Group Company Limited | 522.3 m | — | -44.4% | -22.4% | −70.6% | −98% / −100% |
| GOTUGaotu Techedu Inc. | 373.9 m | — | -20.8% | -5.3% | +40.9% | −0% / −9% |
| IHiHuman Inc. | 245.2 m | 22.8 | 10.0% | 11.8% | −8.7% | −60% / −59% |
| FEDUFour Seasons Education (Cayman) Inc. | 210.5 m | 46.6 | 6.8% | 12.1% | +7.6% | −30% / +13% |
| LXEHLixiang Education Holding Co. Ltd. | 155.2 m | — | -83.1% | -395.4% | −1.9% | −63% / −99% |
| LGCYLegacy Education Inc. | 118.1 m | 14.0 | 19.5% | 11.4% | +24.8% | −12% / unavailable |
| EEIQEpicQuest Education Group International Limited | 93.6 m | — | -34.8% | -27.2% | +9.6% | −23% / −81% |
| VSAVisionSys AI Inc | 81.8 m | 0.3 | — | 164,963.8% | −99.9% | −97% / −100% |
| CHGGChegg, Inc | 71.1 m | — | -30.7% | -17.2% | −39.0% | −34% / −94% |
| AMBOAmbow Education Holding Ltd. | 62.3 m | — | -2.9% | -2.6% | +0.8% | −61% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LFS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 08 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026), 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (01 Jul 2026), 6-K (23 Jun 2026), 6-K (18 Jun 2026).
In brief
LEIFRAS is a Japanese operator of children's sports schools that pairs sports education with community social services such as school club support. The company listed in October 2025, and revenue rose to $74.8 million in fiscal 2025 from $65.9 million in fiscal 2024.
SWOT
Strengths
- Nationwide network of sports schools across 13 sports.
- Full-time coaching staff with high retention, supported by a structured training process.
- Recognition from Japanese public institutions and over two decades of experience in youth sports education.
Weaknesses
- Heavy reliance on sports school membership fees makes revenue sensitive to enrollment.
- Coach salaries are a large cost, and productivity per coach may suffer when classes are not full.
- Limited operating history in some social services makes future performance hard to gauge.
Opportunities
- Expansion into new cities and all Japanese prefectures could add enrollments.
- Preschool classes and university partnerships could widen the customer base.
- Public funding for community clubs could open new contracts in the social segment.
Threats
- A shrinking child population could reduce demand over the long term.
- Competition from schools and clubs could pressure prices and profit margins.
- Difficulty securing suitable venues could raise rental costs.
Risks
- Enrollment dependencehigh
If the number of students enrolling or re-enrolling falls, revenue and workforce planning could be materially affected, according to the filing.
- Indebtednessmedium
Loans and bonds issued in January 2026 could limit cash available for investment and dividends.
- Venue availabilitymedium
Limited access to public halls and grounds could raise costs or reduce the number of classes offered.
- Safety incidentshigh
Accidents or injuries to students could damage reputation and bring liability and additional costs.
- Municipal contract renewalsmedium
Municipalities could award contracts to competitors at renewal, which could reduce social business revenue.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company has grown steadily over more than two decades and increased total revenue in fiscal 2025 over fiscal 2024, while coach retention stayed high.
- The social segment is expanding and could benefit from public funding for community clubs in the coming period.
- Classes that are nearly full point to room for revenue growth without major infrastructure spending, if coach productivity improves.
What would break the thesis
- The business depends on a large number of enrollments, and a falling birthrate could directly shrink the member base.
- Costs for full-time coaches could stay high if student numbers do not grow enough.
- Recently taken-on debt could limit financial flexibility if revenue growth slows.
What to watch
- Trend in member numbers and class occupancy rateNext annual report
- Renewal of contracts with municipalities and schools2027
- Opening of new offices and classes in new prefectures2027
- Retention rate of full-time coachesNext annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 08 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026), 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (01 Jul 2026), 6-K (23 Jun 2026), 6-K (18 Jun 2026).
The business
LEIFRAS Co., Ltd. is a sports and social business company headquartered in Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, that organizes sports schools and sports events for children. According to its fiscal 2025 Form 20-F, it is among Japan's largest operators of children's sports schools, with 13 sports schools from soccer ('Liberta') to kendo ('Kokoro') held at more than 4,500 facility locations. Its social business dispatches sports coaches to municipalities and schools, and it reported net income of JPY438.5 million for fiscal 2025 1.
The model rests on full-time coaches whom the company trains and retains over the long term, which the filing says supports class quality and member loyalty. The company describes its educational philosophy as developing non-cognitive skills such as motivation, teamwork and sportsmanship 1.
The company financed its expansion through its October 2025 IPO and unsecured corporate bonds issued in January 2026. Reported debt at 31 December 2025 included short-term loans and the current portion of long-term loans 1.
Segments
Children's sports schools
This is the core business and generates most revenue. Membership fees made up 53.08% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, and events for students a further 17.39% 1.
Social business
This covers school club support, therapeutic soccer for children with disabilities, management of public sports facilities and elderly exercise programs. Its share of total revenue rose to 27.0% in fiscal 2025 from 23.1% in fiscal 2024 1.
Market context
The youth sports education market in Japan is fragmented and increasingly competitive, according to the filing, which links the pressure to the falling birthrate and population decline. The company competes with sports clubs and extracurricular activities in schools, some of which offer lessons at no extra cost beyond teacher salaries 1. The filing also notes Japan's lag in educational ICT, which could change demand for extracurricular services 1.
The social services market is tied to public policy. The filing cites Japan Sports Agency funding for community club activities in the 2026 to 2031 reform period and possible expansion of childcare subsidies 1.
Trends
- Public funding for community clubstailwind
Government funding for community club development could support demand for the company's school support services in municipalities and schools 1.
- Declining birthrateheadwind
A shrinking number of children reduces the pool of potential members, and competitive pressure could rise if enrollment falls 1.
- Household cost pressureheadwind
Inflation strain on household budgets could make parents more price-sensitive to membership fees, which could push the company toward discounts 1.
- Demand for non-cognitive skillsmixed
Parental interest in non-cognitive abilities supports the company's distinctive offering, although the filing warns this philosophy may not stay accepted in the future 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with other sports schools in its localities, traditional youth sports clubs and extracurricular activities in public and private schools. Some rivals could have greater resources, better-located venues or lower fees, and schools offering free teacher-led activities are a direct alternative 1.
In social services, the company's advantage comes from its first-mover position in public procurement and its track record with municipalities. If its market share declined, it could lose that advantage and the associated revenue 1.
- Traditional children's sports clubs
Compete directly for the same members and venues in the company's localities, according to the filing.
- Extracurricular activities in public and private schools
Offer free sports activities for students through teachers, creating direct price competition.
- Online education providers
Compete indirectly in some areas, according to the filing.
- Other municipal and private social service operators
Could win contracts from the company when municipal agreements come up for renewal, per the filing.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / LEIFRAS Co., Ltd. · 08 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.