olivLaw · US equity research
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. AVAL
Commercial Banks, NEC · SIC 6029 · Vertical: Commercial Banks, NEC (SIC 6029)
Grupo Aval is Colombia's largest banking group, leading in consumer loans and payroll loans, and also operating through subsidiaries in Central America and pension and severance fund management. Net income attributable to owners of the parent rose in fiscal 2025 by from the prior year, supported by a recovery in the net interest margin, while the group reshapes its portfolio through the sale of MFG in Panama and the pending acquisition of Itaú's retail operations in Colombia and Panama.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) stock was 4.31 USD (−0.46% on the day), with beta 0.84, 52-week range 3.55–5.75 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 27.8
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.31 – 5.11
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.00 · band width 17.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 4.97 / 4.78
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.16 / -0.12
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −12.9% | −2.0% | −10.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −18.7% | −2.2% | −16.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.3% | +4.3% | −9.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +6.4% | +10.6% | −4.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +2.6% | +10.5% | −7.8 pp | +23.0% |
| 3 years | +81.1% | +73.7% | +7.4 pp | +132.7% |
| 5 years | −26.1% | +61.7% | −87.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 31,659.9 bn | 34,083.2 bn | 37,055.2 bn | 38,468.2 bn | 39,064.5 bn | 37,274.8 bn | 47,658.2 bn | 46,492.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −0.0% | +7.7% | +8.7% | +3.8% | +1.6% | −4.6% | +27.9% | −2.4% |
| Net income | 657.6 m | 896.3 m | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +36.3% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 88.08 | 130.73 | 136.19 | 105.45 | 148.01 | 107.29 | 31.12 | 42.75 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −8.3% | +48.4% | +4.2% | −22.6% | +40.4% | −27.5% | −71.0% | +37.4% |
| net % | 0.0% | 0.0% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | 1.6 bn | 2.5 bn | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- unavailable COP
- Financial debt
- unavailable COP
- Net debt
- unavailable COP
- Equity
- unavailable COP
- Total assets
- unavailable COP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Income statement · COP
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted EPS | 136.19 | 105.45 | 148.01 | 107.29 | 31.12 | 42.75 | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Apr 2025verified |
Balance sheet · COP
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shares outstanding at year end | 7.1 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Apr 2025verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Banking
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 14.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
14% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 14.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| ROA · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Cost-to-income · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net interest margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -33.9% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 57% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.0% | 60 (on a fixed band) | 43% |
| NPL ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Cost of risk · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Loan-to-deposit · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/B · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth26/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/4 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GRUPO AVAL ACCIONES Y VALORES S.A. (AVAL). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth -2.4%.
The estimated value range is 401.96–668.04 COP per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 14.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -33.9%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROE, ROA, Cost-to-income, Net interest margin, NPL ratio, Cost of risk, Loan-to-deposit, P/B, P/E (TTM), Dividend yield.
Versus the vertical median
Commercial Banks, NEC (SIC 6029) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCHBank of Chile | 3,989.2 bn | 3.2 | 25,665.4% | 1,571,522.8% | −10.7% | +5% / +74% |
| HDBHdfc Bank Limited | 186.2 bn | 23.4 | 9.1% | 30.8% | +15.2% | −34% / −19% |
| KBKB Financial Group Inc. | 41.2 bn | 13.4 | 8.3% | 0.0% | +17.8% | +35% / +185% |
| NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | 2.2 bn | 10.1 | 21.4% | 38.2% | +4.6% | +19% / +100% |
| BLXForeign Trade Bank Of Latin America, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 9.2 | 16.2% | 67.8% | +14.1% | +14% / +110% |
| PGCPeapack Gladstone Financial Corp | 839.4 m | 16.4 | 7.7% | 16.4% | +24.1% | +75% / +91% |
| AVALGrupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. | 30 | 0.1 | — | — | −2.4% | +3% / +81% |
| LYGLloyds Banking Group plc | — | — | 10.0% | 24.0% | +7.9% | +3% / +141% |
| RYRoyal Bank Of Canada | — | — | 15.3% | 30.6% | +16.1% | +36% / +132% |
| MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | — | — | 9.1% | 14.6% | +9.5% | +39% / +156% |
| BMOBank Of Montreal | — | — | 10.1% | 24.0% | +10.6% | +41% / +116% |
| TDToronto Dominion Bank | — | — | 16.9% | 30.3% | +18.4% | +53% / +110% |
| INTRINTER & Co, INC. | — | — | 11.1% | 14.2% | +34.7% | −56% / −25% |
| SUPVGrupo Supervielle S.A. | — | — | 13.6% | 12.2% | −13.9% | −48% / +73% |
| INGIng Groep NV | — | — | 15.6% | 32.4% | +21.8% | +27% / +133% |
| BCSBarclays PLC | — | — | 9.6% | 64.6% | +3.7% | +4% / +228% |
| NWGNatWest Group plc | — | — | 14.2% | 19.3% | +3.1% | −1% / +209% |
| VBNKVersaBank | — | — | 6.1% | 22.8% | +11.7% | +90% / +193% |
| CMCanadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce | — | — | 13.7% | 28.9% | +13.8% | +39% / +190% |
| BAPCredicorp Ltd | — | — | 16.5% | 20.0% | +7.0% | +40% / +186% |
| SANBanco Santander, S.A. | — | — | 12.8% | — | +0.0% | +12% / +194% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AVAL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (01 Oct 2026), 6-K (29 Sept 2026), 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (26 Aug 2026).
In brief
Grupo Aval is Colombia's largest banking group, leading in consumer loans and payroll loans, and also operating through subsidiaries in Central America and pension and severance fund management. Net income attributable to owners of the parent rose in fiscal 2025 by 1 from the prior year, supported by a recovery in the net interest margin, while the group reshapes its portfolio through the sale of MFG in Panama and the pending acquisition of Itaú's retail operations in Colombia and Panama.1
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in Colombia in consumer loans, payroll loans and term deposits, supported by a branch network and well-developed digital channels.
- Diversified activity through commercial banks, pension funds, a merchant bank and trust services under one holding company.
- High digital adoption among active customers and rapid growth of digital channels in sales and disbursements.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on the Colombian economy, where most operations, customers and properties are located.
- The balance sheet is sensitive to benchmark rate moves, and part of the deposit base comes from institutional clients.
- Corficolombiana is in a net liability position and holds relatively illiquid assets concentrated in a few industries.
Opportunities
- If investment and credit growth keep recovering, loan expansion could support interest and fee income.
- The Itaú retail acquisition could strengthen the affluent customer segment if regulatory approval is obtained.
- Digital strategy and platforms such as dale! and GOU Payments could attract new customers in payments and consumer lending.
Threats
- The S&P sovereign downgrade in April 2026 could affect funding costs and market conditions.
- Competition from fintechs and neo-banks and changes in instant payments could erode share in traditional segments.
- Inflationary pressure and the minimum wage increase could weigh on customers' repayment capacity and loan portfolio quality.
Risks
- Exposure to Colombian economic conditionshigh
Group results are strongly influenced by economic, political and social conditions in Colombia, including policy changes and social unrest that could disrupt operations.
- Deterioration of asset qualityhigh
Rising defaults or an inability to realize collateral could weigh on profitability at the group's banks, particularly if inflation stays elevated.
- Funding and rating riskmedium
A further downgrade of the sovereign or of the group could raise the cost of funding in international and local markets.
- Execution risk of acquisitionsmedium
Strategic transactions, including the Itaú asset acquisition and infrastructure projects, could fail to deliver expected results or face approval delays.
- Cyber and operational riskmedium
Reliance on information systems and digital channels increases exposure to cyberattacks and technology failures that could affect customers and reputation.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the recovery in the net interest margin and better loan quality hold, profitability could keep improving in the coming years, given the group's leadership in its core segments.
- Diversification into pension funds, a merchant bank and trust services provides additional income streams that could cushion banking-cycle swings.
- High digital adoption and the success of channels such as dale! could let the group expand its customer base at lower cost.
What would break the thesis
- If the fiscal deficit and inflationary pressure persist, funding costs and government bond yields could stay high, limiting margin gains.
- The sovereign downgrade and heavy exposure to the local economy could reduce access to external funding and affect the value of securities portfolios.
- Competition from fintechs and new payment operators could erode share in traditional banking if the group does not adapt its model quickly.
What to watch
- Completion of the Itaú retail asset acquisition in Colombia and Panama, pending regulatory approval2026
- Trend in cost of risk and asset quality in the consumer loan bookQ1 2027
- Evolution of the net interest margin as benchmark rates change2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (01 Oct 2026), 6-K (29 Sept 2026), 6-K (15 Sept 2026), 6-K (02 Sept 2026), 6-K (26 Aug 2026).
The business
Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. is a holding company based in Bogotá that controls the Aval Financial Conglomerate, including commercial banks, a pension and severance fund manager (Porvenir), a merchant bank (Corficolombiana) and trust subsidiaries. The group states that it is Colombia's largest banking group by consumer loans and leads in payroll loans, foreign-currency commercial loans, construction loans and micro-businesses, and ranks first in term deposits and checking accounts.1
In 2025 the group completed or advanced several strategic transactions: it agreed to sell MFG in Panama to BAC, a sale completed on March 18, 2026, and Banco de Bogotá announced the acquisition of Itaú's retail banking operations in Colombia and Panama, pending regulatory approval. Corficolombiana, through Promigas and Sencia, advanced energy and infrastructure projects, and trust services were consolidated into Aval Fiduciaria.1
Segments
Commercial and retail banking
The group's commercial banks (Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, Banco AV Villas) concentrate lending and deposit gathering, focused on consumer loans, payroll loans and mortgages. Retail products represent 43.3% of total loans, and foreign-currency exposure is limited, with 8.7% of loans denominated in foreign currency at December 31, 2025.1
Pension and severance funds
Porvenir manages pension and severance funds in a tightly regulated market. Results depend on employment and income growth of contributors, and returns on stabilization reserves and performance-based fees could be sensitive to broader economic conditions.1
Merchant banking (Corficolombiana)
Corficolombiana, the group's merchant bank, is in a net liability position in a rising-rate environment, which has pressured its funding costs. Its investments are largely in relatively illiquid assets concentrated in five industries, and newly announced projects such as the Sencia acquisition for the Nemesio Camacho stadium add execution risk.1
Market context
Gross loans in the Colombian banking system grew 7.6% annually at December 31, 2025, with mortgages and commercial loans leading growth. Inflation closed 2025 at 5.1% and the Central Bank's benchmark rate stood at 9.25%, while GDP grew 2.6% in 2025 on household consumption. The fiscal deficit remains a challenge, and in April 2026 S&P downgraded Colombia's sovereign rating to BB-.1
Trends
- Recovery of the net interest margintailwind
In 2025 profit rose mainly because the net interest margin recovered, supported by a lower cost of funds as benchmark rates declined. If funding costs keep falling faster than yields on fixed-rate loans, the margin could remain favorable.1
- Improving asset qualitytailwind
Asset quality, particularly in consumer loans, improved, enabling a lower cost of risk. If this trend holds, provisioning pressure could ease in the coming years.1
- Fiscal pressure and higher sovereign yieldsheadwind
The persistent fiscal deficit and large debt issuances pushed up government bond yields, raising funding costs and affecting the value of securities portfolios. If the deficit does not narrow, cost pressure could continue.1
- Digitalization and shifting customer behaviourmixed
Digital channels grew quickly and some customers are moving to digital solutions and to fintech competitors. Rapid adaptation could support the customer base, but technology investment carries costs and execution risk.1
Competitive position
In Colombia the group competes with large commercial banks and with fintechs and neo-banks that carry no legacy systems. Competition in the credit card segment is intense, and consolidation in the Colombian banking sector could shift the balance of forces.1
In Panama and Central America the group competed until recently through MFG, now sold to BAC, and the central bank's instant payments ecosystem, Bre-b, adds competition from new entrants. The group launched GOU Payments to defend its position in that ecosystem.1
- Bancolombia
Large Colombian commercial bank, a direct competitor in consumer, commercial lending and deposits within the system in which the group operates.
- BAC Holding International
Central American banking group and buyer of MFG in Panama, competing with the group's regional operations.
- Fintechs and neo-banks
New digital entrants competing through end-to-end experiences without legacy systems, cited in the source as a competitive pressure.
- Instant payment operators and Bre-b
The central bank's instant payments ecosystem, which could redistribute money transfer share among players.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- ALRO Extrusion, filiala în aval a producătorului global de aluminiu ALRO S.A. și una dintre companiile de top de extrudare a aluminiului din România, aniversează 20 de ani de activitate și marchează un nou capitol de succes cu o nouă identitate de brandFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Aspretele, blocat pe 450 m între beton și poluare. 76% din populația identificată în 2026 trăiește pe mai puțin de 5% din areal / Numărul peștilor din aval de stația de epurare Brădetu aproape s-a înjumătățit / Cursa pentru salvarea unei specii care există doar în RomâniaG4Media · 25 Sept 2026 · RO
- Gabriel Ţecheră, director relaţii cu investitorii, TTS: Scăderea debitului Dunării ne-a afectat mult mai puţin decât se vede din afară pentru că am relocat flota în aval de Cernavodă în primăvară, când începuseră deja semnele de debite scăzuteZiarul Financiar · 25 Sept 2026 · RO
- Ministerul Mediului: România nu a fost notificată de Ungaria, conform Convenției Espoo, pentru lucrările de la Paks. Bucureștiul avertizează asupra posibilelor efecte în avalFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Urmăriţi ZF Deschiderea de Astăzi, 13 august | Gabriel Ţecheră, TTS, despre Dunărea în forţă majoră, repoziţionarea flotei în aval de Cernavodă şi acumulările din acţiuniZiarul Financiar · 13 Aug 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 27 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)01 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Aug 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. · 17 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.