olivLaw · US equity research
Banco Santander, S.A. SAN
Commercial Banks, NEC · SIC 6029 · Vertical: Commercial Banks, NEC (SIC 6029)
Banco Santander is one of the largest banks in the world, with a global network and local leaders in the markets where it operates, organised into five global businesses. In 2025 it reported record attributable profit of EUR 14.1 billion, and its 2026-2028 plan targets higher profitability and the shift to a 'digital bank with branches'.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN) stock was 12.07 USD (+6.44% on the day), with beta 1.14, 52-week range 10.06–15.05 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 40.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.08 – 14.29
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.31 · band width 25.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 13.72 / 12.93
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.63 / -0.54
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −13.2% | −2.0% | −11.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −17.6% | −2.2% | −15.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.7% | +4.3% | −6.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +2.9% | +10.6% | −7.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +20.6% | +10.5% | +10.1 pp | +23.0% |
| 3 years | +216.8% | +73.7% | +143.1 pp | +123.9% |
| 5 years | +219.3% | +61.7% | +157.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 7.8 bn | 6.5 bn | -8.8 bn | 8.1 bn | 9.6 bn | 11.1 bn | 12.6 bn | 14.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | +18.0% | −16.6% | −234.6% | unavailable | +18.2% | +15.3% | +13.5% | +12.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.43 | 0.35 | -0.54 | 0.44 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.77 | 0.90 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +6.5% | −19.3% | −255.5% | unavailable | +23.2% | +21.2% | +18.0% | +17.2% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -7.3 bn | -9.4 bn | 58.8 bn | 46.7 bn | 18.6 bn | -6.4 bn | -32.6 bn | -20.7 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 152.3 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 112.7 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 1,867.5 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 12.8%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | -2.1 bn | 14.5 bn | 15.3 bn | 15.0 bn | 17.3 bn | 18.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -8.8 bn | 8.1 bn | 9.6 bn | 11.1 bn | 12.6 bn | 14.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.54 | 0.44 | 0.54 | 0.65 | 0.77 | 0.90 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.23 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 153.8 bn | 210.7 bn | 223.1 bn | 220.3 bn | 192.2 bn | 152.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1,508.3 bn | 1,595.8 bn | 1,734.7 bn | 1,797.1 bn | 1,837.1 bn | 1,867.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1,416.9 bn | 1,498.8 bn | 1,637.1 bn | 1,692.8 bn | 1,729.8 bn | 1,754.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 91.3 bn | 97.1 bn | 97.6 bn | 104.2 bn | 107.3 bn | 112.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 17.3 bn | 17.3 bn | 16.8 bn | 16.2 bn | 15.2 bn | 14.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 0 | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Feb 2024verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Banking
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 2 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 22.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
22% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.09 – 15.09 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income8.26 – 8.64 (Mid 8.44)
- Justified P/B11.07 – 15.09 (Mid 12.77)
- Dividend discount (DDM)3.09 – 4.22 (Mid 3.57)
- Peers: P/E5.56 – 13.38 (Mid 9.13)7 companies used · median multiple 10.1x · quartiles 6.2x – 14.9xAVAL, BCH, BLX, HDB, KB, NTB, PGC
- Peers: P/B8.31 – 13.86 (Mid 9.88)6 companies used · median multiple 1.3x · quartiles 1.1x – 1.8xAVAL, BLX, HDB, KB, NTB, PGC
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 12.8% | 47 (vs peers) | 73% |
| ROA · Quality | 0.8% | 26 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Cost-to-income · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net interest margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| NPL ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Cost of risk · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Loan-to-deposit · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/B · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality41/100 · 2/4 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Banco Santander, S.A. (SAN). Latest full fiscal year: 2017; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 0.0%; ROE 12.8%.
The estimated value range is 8.26–13.38 EUR per share (median of 5 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 2 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 22.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROA: 0.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Cost-to-income, Net interest margin, EPS CAGR 3Y, Revenue CAGR 3Y, NPL ratio, Cost of risk, Loan-to-deposit, P/B, P/E (TTM), Dividend yield.
Versus the vertical median
Commercial Banks, NEC (SIC 6029) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCHBank of Chile | 3,989.2 bn | 3.2 | 25,665.4% | 1,571,522.8% | −10.7% | +5% / +74% |
| HDBHdfc Bank Limited | 186.2 bn | 23.4 | 9.1% | 30.8% | +15.2% | −34% / −19% |
| KBKB Financial Group Inc. | 41.2 bn | 13.4 | 8.3% | 0.0% | +17.8% | +35% / +185% |
| NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | 2.2 bn | 10.1 | 21.4% | 38.2% | +4.6% | +19% / +100% |
| BLXForeign Trade Bank Of Latin America, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 9.2 | 16.2% | 67.8% | +14.1% | +14% / +110% |
| PGCPeapack Gladstone Financial Corp | 839.4 m | 16.4 | 7.7% | 16.4% | +24.1% | +75% / +91% |
| AVALGrupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. | 30 | 0.1 | — | — | −2.4% | +3% / +93% |
| MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | — | — | 9.1% | 14.6% | +9.5% | +39% / +156% |
| RYRoyal Bank Of Canada | — | — | 15.3% | 30.6% | +16.1% | +36% / +132% |
| BMOBank Of Montreal | — | — | 10.1% | 24.0% | +10.6% | +41% / +116% |
| INTRINTER & Co, INC. | — | — | 11.1% | 14.2% | +34.7% | −56% / −25% |
| CMCanadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce | — | — | 13.7% | 28.9% | +13.8% | +39% / +190% |
| BAPCredicorp Ltd | — | — | 16.5% | 20.0% | +7.0% | +40% / +186% |
| VBNKVersaBank | — | — | 6.1% | 22.8% | +11.7% | +90% / +193% |
| TDToronto Dominion Bank | — | — | 16.9% | 30.3% | +18.4% | +53% / +110% |
| BCSBarclays PLC | — | — | 9.6% | 64.6% | +3.7% | +4% / +228% |
| NWGNatWest Group plc | — | — | 14.2% | 19.3% | +3.1% | −1% / +209% |
| INGIng Groep NV | — | — | 15.6% | 32.4% | +21.8% | +27% / +133% |
| SANBanco Santander, S.A. | — | — | 12.8% | — | +0.0% | +21% / +217% |
| SUPVGrupo Supervielle S.A. | — | — | 13.6% | 12.2% | −13.9% | −48% / +73% |
| LYGLloyds Banking Group plc | — | — | 10.0% | 24.0% | +7.9% | +3% / +141% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SAN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 27 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
Banco Santander is one of the largest banks in the world, with a global network and local leaders in the markets where it operates, organised into five global businesses. In 2025 it reported record attributable profit of EUR 14.1 billion, and its 2026-2028 plan targets higher profitability and the shift to a 'digital bank with branches'.
SWOT
Strengths
- Global scale combined with local leaders in core markets, a very large customer base and a diversified balance sheet with lower volatility than many peers.
- Record results for several consecutive years, with low cost of risk and CET1 capital above the operating target.
- A global business model that allows sharing of technology and platforms across markets.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on European and Latin American markets exposes the group to political instability and currency moves.
- Operating efficiency still depends on the success of the transformation programme and on acquisition integrations.
- The Payments division has more volatile costs and returns, with investment write-downs in earlier periods.
Opportunities
- Growth in fee income and expansion of the digital offer could strengthen profitability if the targets hold.
- The integration of TSB and Webster could open new markets and cost synergies.
- Green finance and responsible investment products could attract clients and capital if demand keeps rising.
Threats
- Changes in monetary policy or an economic slowdown could affect loan quality and interest margins.
- Cyberattacks and data security incidents are a permanent operational risk.
- Pressure from fintech and payment platform competitors could reduce market share in retail and payments.
Risks
- Credit riskmedium
A deterioration of the economy or of the property market could raise credit losses and the cost of risk, which the report presents as a key indicator 1.
- Market and structural riskmedium
Changes in interest rates and exchange rates could affect net interest income and asset values, according to the risk management chapter 1.
- Operational and cyber riskhigh
Cyberattacks, data losses and other security incidents could generate financial and reputational losses.
- Regulatory and compliance riskmedium
Changes in tax, capital or environmental regulation could alter compliance requirements and limit capital distribution.
- Political and geographic riskmedium
Political instability in Spain, the United States, the UK and Latin America could affect the group's operations and investments 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the group reaches its 2028 profitability targets and keeps growing fee income, the global scale model could support steady value creation for shareholders.
- Efficiency gains from the ONE Transformation and the expansion of the digital bank with branches could reduce costs and increase customer retention.
- Diversification across divisions and markets reduces reliance on a single risk and may keep results stable through volatile periods.
What would break the thesis
- If the European or Latin American economies slow down, profit growth could be slower than expected.
- Regulatory pressure and capital requirements could limit distributions and the group's strategic flexibility.
- Acquisition integrations could divert management resources and generate unforeseen costs.
What to watch
- Delivery of revenue and profit growth targets after the TSB and Webster integration2027
- Trend in cost of risk and loan quality in the main marketsQ1 2027
- Progress of the Payments division and PagoNxt against the EBITDA margin targetnext 10-K
- Confirmation of the RoTEB target above 20% for 20282028
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 27 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026).
The business
The group operates through five global businesses: Retail & Commercial Banking, Digital Consumer Bank, Corporate & Investment Banking, Wealth Management & Insurance and Payments. According to the 2025 annual report 1, the group serves over 180 million customers, and revenue reached 62.4 billion EUR 1. The strategy rests on the ONE Santander concept, combining global scale with in-market leadership.
Segments
Market context
Santander operates mainly in Europe, the United States and Latin America, where it ranks among the top three in lending, deposits and mutual funds in most core markets 1. European and Latin American banking are affected by monetary policy, capital rules and trade tensions described in the report 1.
Interest rates, exchange rates and economic developments in Spain, the UK, Poland and Latin America are key drivers of results, according to the forward-looking statements in the report 1. Prudential regulation and liquidity requirements could change lending conditions in all these markets.
Trends
- Market share consolidation and the TSB and Webster integrationmixed
The group says it is now at scale in all core markets and aims for double-digit revenue growth in 2027, including through the TSB and Webster integration 1. Success depends on execution and macroeconomic conditions.
- Digitalisation and the digital bank with branchestailwind
The 'digital bank with branches' model aims at customer retention and cost reduction, which could support operating efficiency if digital adoption keeps growing.
- Regulatory pressure and capital requirementsheadwind
Capital and liquidity requirements, as well as climate-related regulation, could limit flexibility in distributing capital and raise compliance costs 1.
- Fintech and artificial intelligencemixed
The expansion of artificial intelligence and the fintech ecosystem could bring new product opportunities, but also new cybersecurity risks described by the group in its dedicated chapter 1.
Competitive position
Competition comes from other large European and global banks, as well as fintechs and digital payment operators. The report does not give a detailed list of competitors, but it stresses that the group's advantage derives from scale and in-market presence in key markets 1.
- Large European banking groups
Compete mainly in retail and corporate banking in Europe, with no named peers in the given source.
- Fintech and digital payment operators
Put pressure on the Payments division and on the group's digital offer, described as a strategic risk area 1.
- Latin American banks
Compete in regional markets where the group has strong local presence.
- Asset managers and insurers
Compete with the Wealth Management & Insurance division for mutual funds and savings products.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Real Madrid extend winning run with 3-0 victory at Racing SantanderCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Healey's Budget Placates Gilt Markets, Santander Says (Video)Bloomberg Markets · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- FintechOS atrage 28 mil. dolari de la acţionari şi Santander CIB pentru extinderea în SUA şi Europa. “Ne oferă capitalul necesar pentru a valorifica potenţialul extraordinar pe care îl vedem în faţă, în special în Statele Unite, fără a compromite disciplina care ne-a adus pe profit”Ziarul Financiar · 21 Sept 2026 · RO
- JPMorgan, Santander Lead £1.1 Billion Loan for Drax Solar DealBloomberg Markets · 18 Sept 2026 · EN
- Atletico - Osasuna 3-0, DGS 3. Le Normand, golul serii! | Barcelona - Santander, 22:30, DGS 1. Echipele - Digi SportSurge — Google News · 16 Sept 2026 · RO
- Atletico - Osasuna 2-0, DGS 3. Kang-In Lee a majorat diferența | Barcelona - Santander, 22:30, DGS 1. Programul zilei în La Liga - Digi SportSurge — Google News · 16 Sept 2026 · RO
- Japan’s GPIF May Sell $62 Billion of Treasuries, Santander SaysBloomberg Markets · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- VIDEO | Andrei Rațiu, gol superb pentru Rayo Vallecano în victoria cu Racing Santander, scor 3-2G4Media · 06 Sept 2026 · RO
- Ireland’s AIB Turns to Santander for SRT Tied to Project FinanceBloomberg Markets · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- JPMorgan and Santander Lead $15 Billion Financing Push for Argentina LNGOil Price · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Santander a depăşit Inditex, devenind cea mai valoroasă companie listată la bursă din SpaniaMoney.ro · 22 Jun 2026 · RO
- Santander Surpasses Inditex as Spain’s Most Valuable CompanyBloomberg Markets · 19 Jun 2026 · EN
- Santander, JPMorgan to Back $1 Billion TGS Vaca Muerta FinancingBloomberg Markets · 03 Jun 2026 · EN
- Santander Employee Arrested in $85 Million Chile Crime StingBloomberg Markets · 02 Jun 2026 · EN
- Webster Investors Approve $12 Billion Purchase by SantanderBloomberg Markets · 26 May 2026 · EN
- Why Santander spinout Mouro Capital is betting on AI: 'We're not fans of the word fintech'Sifted (EU startups) · 19 May 2026 · RO
- Santander Taps Patria’s Alonso to Head Its Asset Management UnitBloomberg Markets · 11 May 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Banco Santander, S.A. · 27 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.