olivLaw · US equity research
NatWest Group plc NWG
Commercial Banks, NEC · SIC 6029 · Vertical: Commercial Banks, NEC (SIC 6029)
NatWest Group plc is a UK-based banking group that provides lending and banking services to personal and business customers under a risk framework aimed at better understanding its customers. It matters now because its loan book reached £429.9bn at the end of 2025, while its impairment charge of £671 million for 2025 reflects controlled credit risk costs.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NatWest Group plc (NWG) stock was 16.55 USD (+6.91% on the day), with beta 1.07, 52-week range 13.89–19.42 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 15.67 – 18.19
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.35 · band width 14.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 17.79 / 17.04
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.49 / -0.41
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −5.4% | −1.1% | −4.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −13.9% | −0.5% | −13.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | +6.0% | +4.4% | +1.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −5.4% | +12.3% | −17.7 pp | — |
| 1 year | +8.6% | +13.5% | −4.9 pp | +23.0% |
| 3 years | +252.9% | +76.4% | +176.5 pp | +123.9% |
| 5 years | +162.5% | +63.7% | +98.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 16.7 bn | 18.2 bn | 13.4 bn | 12.7 bn | 16.6 bn | 25.4 bn | 29.3 bn | 30.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +3.7% | +9.0% | −26.0% | −5.5% | +30.5% | +53.1% | +15.5% | +3.1% |
| Net income | 2.2 bn | 3.8 bn | -434.0 m | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | +42.6% | +76.7% | −111.4% | unavailable | +8.5% | +28.8% | +3.9% | +21.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 13.40 | 0.26 | -0.07 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +21,169.8% | −98.1% | −125.9% | unavailable | +23.5% | +42.0% | +11.3% | +26.9% |
| net % | 12.9% | 20.9% | -3.2% | 26.1% | 21.7% | 18.2% | 16.4% | 19.3% |
| Free cash flow | -7.4 bn | -3.6 bn | 28.7 bn | 52.8 bn | -44.2 bn | -18.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 6.4 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 95.4 bn GBP
- Financial debt
- unavailable GBP
- Net debt
- unavailable GBP
- Equity
- 42.6 bn GBP
- Total assets
- 714.6 bn GBP
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 14.2%
- ROA
- 0.8%
- FCF margin
- 21.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (GBP)
Income statement · GBP
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | -553.0 m | 3.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.2 bn | 7.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -434.0 m | 3.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.07 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.67 | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · GBP
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 139.2 bn | 190.7 bn | 158.4 bn | 118.8 bn | 104.8 bn | 95.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 799.5 bn | 782.0 bn | 720.1 bn | 692.7 bn | 708.0 bn | 714.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 755.7 bn | 740.2 bn | 683.6 bn | 655.5 bn | 668.6 bn | 671.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 43.8 bn | 41.8 bn | 36.5 bn | 37.2 bn | 39.4 bn | 42.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · GBP
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 381.0 m | 1.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.0 m | 1.8 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 579.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Banking
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 36.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
36% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 36.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 14.2% | 63 (vs peers) | 44% |
| ROA · Quality | 0.8% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Cost-to-income · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net interest margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 26.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 22% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 22.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| NPL ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Cost of risk · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Loan-to-deposit · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/B · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Dividend yield · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality54/100 · 2/4 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
NatWest Group plc (NWG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 3.1%; net margin 19.3%; ROE 14.2%.
The estimated value range is 4.16–10.02 GBP per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 36.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 26.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 22.2%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Cost-to-income, Net interest margin, NPL ratio, Cost of risk, Loan-to-deposit, P/B, P/E (TTM), Dividend yield.
Versus the vertical median
Commercial Banks, NEC (SIC 6029) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCHBank of Chile | 3,989.2 bn | 3.2 | 25,665.4% | 1,571,522.8% | −10.7% | +5% / +74% |
| HDBHdfc Bank Limited | 186.2 bn | 23.4 | 9.1% | 30.8% | +15.2% | −34% / −19% |
| KBKB Financial Group Inc. | 41.2 bn | 13.4 | 8.3% | 0.0% | +17.8% | +35% / +185% |
| NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | 2.2 bn | 10.1 | 21.4% | 38.2% | +4.6% | +19% / +100% |
| BLXForeign Trade Bank Of Latin America, Inc. | 1.9 bn | 9.2 | 16.2% | 67.8% | +14.1% | +14% / +110% |
| PGCPeapack Gladstone Financial Corp | 839.4 m | 16.4 | 7.7% | 16.4% | +24.1% | +75% / +91% |
| AVALGrupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A. | 30 | 0.1 | — | — | −2.4% | +3% / +93% |
| MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | — | — | 9.1% | 14.6% | +9.5% | +39% / +156% |
| RYRoyal Bank Of Canada | — | — | 15.3% | 30.6% | +16.1% | +36% / +132% |
| BMOBank Of Montreal | — | — | 10.1% | 24.0% | +10.6% | +41% / +116% |
| INTRINTER & Co, INC. | — | — | 11.1% | 14.2% | +34.7% | −56% / −25% |
| CMCanadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce | — | — | 13.7% | 28.9% | +13.8% | +39% / +190% |
| BAPCredicorp Ltd | — | — | 16.5% | 20.0% | +7.0% | +40% / +186% |
| VBNKVersaBank | — | — | 6.1% | 22.8% | +11.7% | +90% / +193% |
| TDToronto Dominion Bank | — | — | 16.9% | 30.3% | +18.4% | +53% / +110% |
| BCSBarclays PLC | — | — | 9.6% | 64.6% | +3.7% | +4% / +228% |
| NWGNatWest Group plc | — | — | 14.2% | 19.3% | +3.1% | +9% / +253% |
| INGIng Groep NV | — | — | 15.6% | 32.4% | +21.8% | +27% / +133% |
| SANBanco Santander, S.A. | — | — | 12.8% | — | +0.0% | +12% / +194% |
| SUPVGrupo Supervielle S.A. | — | — | 13.6% | 12.2% | −13.9% | −48% / +73% |
| LYGLloyds Banking Group plc | — | — | 10.0% | 24.0% | +7.9% | +3% / +141% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NWG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026).
In brief
NatWest Group plc is a UK-based banking group that provides lending and banking services to personal and business customers under a risk framework aimed at better understanding its customers. It matters now because its loan book reached £429.9bn 1 at the end of 2025, while its impairment charge of £671 million 1 for 2025 reflects controlled credit risk costs.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a well defined risk governance structure with three lines of defence and a risk appetite approved annually by the Board 1.
- The 2025 stress test results show the group stayed above capital thresholds in severe scenarios, which strengthens its credibility with authorities 1.
- ECL coverage remained stable, indicating consistent management of credit risk across its loan book 1.
Weaknesses
- Growth in unsecured Personal portfolios may increase exposure to defaults if economic conditions weaken 1.
- Climate risk modelling has limits, as techniques are still immature and data is incomplete, which makes results more uncertain 1.
- Reliance on UK macroeconomic conditions makes group results sensitive to domestic economic developments 1.
Opportunities
- Organic demand growth in Personal and Non-Personal could open new revenue opportunities if acquisition integration succeeds 1.
- Simplification of operations and better management of resources could reduce costs and support efficiency in coming years 1.
- Building internal capabilities for physical and transition climate risk modelling could improve long-term lending decisions 1.
Threats
- Adverse economic conditions could increase impairments and put pressure on loan portfolio quality 1.
- Regulatory requirements and Bank of England stress test outcomes could require adjustments to capital buffers 1.
- Uncertainty about how the climate evolves and how governments and markets respond could affect long-term asset valuations 1.
Risks
- Credit riskhigh
Customers or counterparties may fail to meet contractual obligations, which could increase impairments if the economy deteriorates 1.
- Unsecured portfolio riskmedium
Growth in unsecured lending in the Personal segment may expose the group to larger losses during periods of economic strain 1.
- Climate riskmedium
Climate models are still immature and uncertainty about how the climate evolves could affect assets and income over the long term 1.
- Regulatory and capital riskmedium
Stress test results and countercyclical and PRA buffers could require adjustments to the capital position if authorities ask for more 1.
- Liquidity risklow
An idiosyncratic or market-wide stress scenario could affect funding, which is why recovery and resolution plans are maintained 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Stable provision coverage and a lower Stage 3 ratio suggest better credit quality than in earlier years, if the trend holds 1.
- The 2025 stress test results show the group stayed above capital thresholds, which could support flexibility in capital distribution 1.
- Organic portfolio growth and the integration of acquired assets could lead to higher revenue if strategy execution remains consistent 1.
What would break the thesis
- Growth in unsecured portfolios could bring higher risk if the UK economy slows, and impairments could return to higher levels 1.
- Uncertainty in climate risk modelling could make it harder to anticipate long-term losses on the group's assets 1.
- Regulatory requirements could force a strengthening of capital, which could limit the group's ability to return capital to shareholders 1.
What to watch
- Trend in impairments and default rates in the Personal segment2026
- Results of the next Bank of England stress exercises and any adjustments to capital buffers2027
- Progress in integrating portfolios acquired from Sainsbury's Bank2026
- Development of ECL coverage and Stage 3 assetsnext 20-F
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (03 Nov 2026), 6-K (30 Oct 2026).
The business
According to its annual report filed with the SEC on Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2025, NatWest Group conducts its business through subsidiaries and entities in the UK and other jurisdictions, and its strategy rests on three priorities: growth through better understanding of customers, simplification and better management of resources 1. The risk management framework is designed by the independent Risk function and approved annually by the Board, which sets tolerance levels through risk appetite statements 1.
The group operates under the three lines of defence model: the first line includes most roles in customer-facing businesses, the second line is the Risk function, and the third line is Internal Audit, which is independent of the first two 1. This structure aims to manage risk consistently across the group and its subsidiaries, including through recovery and resolution plans reviewed by the Board and submitted to the regulator 1.
Lending is central to the group, and the report distinguishes between the Personal segment, covering lending to individuals, and the Non-Personal segment, which includes small and medium-sized enterprises, corporates, banks and other financial institutions 1. Growth in 2025 came from organic demand in Personal and the acquisition of Sainsbury's Bank unsecured portfolios, while in Non-Personal growth was mainly in financial institutions and corporates 1.
Segments
Personal
The Personal segment covers lending to individuals. The report points to organic growth in demand and the integration of unsecured portfolios acquired from Sainsbury's Bank, and impairment costs remained stable, although they were influenced by lower post-model adjustment reductions compared with 2024 1.
Non-Personal
The Non-Personal segment covers small and medium-sized enterprises, corporates, banks and other financial institutions. Growth in 2025 was concentrated in strategic areas, and the Stage 3 ratio fell as a result of lower defaults in this segment 1.
Markets and trading
The report also describes trading-related exposures, debt securities and securities financing transactions, which are monitored separately through market risk stress tests and risk limits approved by management committees 1.
Market context
The report describes the group as active in the UK market and other markets, where banking regulation, Bank of England stress tests and capital requirements play a major role in strategy 1. The 2025 Bank Capital Stress Test, with results published in December 2025, showed the group remained above its CET1 capital and Tier 1 leverage ratio hurdle rates under stress and was not required to strengthen its capital position 1.
The macroeconomic backdrop remains an important factor, since credit quality depends on the UK economy, interest rates and customer behaviour. The report stresses that long-term climate scenarios are uncertain, which makes climate risk modelling less precise than traditional financial planning 1.
Trends
- Stable credit qualitytailwind
The report notes that arrears trends remained stable and ECL coverage was broadly consistent with 2024, suggesting controlled credit exposure if this trend holds 1.
- Growth in unsecured portfoliosmixed
Unsecured portfolios in Personal grew, including through the Sainsbury's Bank acquisition, which may support revenue but could also increase sensitivity to a worsening economy 1.
- Climate and regulatory pressureheadwind
The group is expanding its climate risk modelling and taking part in regulatory stress exercises, and the results could influence capital adjustments and buffers set by authorities 1.
- Balance sheet managementtailwind
The reduction in Stage 3 assets, attributed to balance sheet management actions in Personal, shows an effort to clean up the portfolio, which could lower future losses if it is sustained 1.
Competitive position
The SEC filing does not explicitly name the group's competitors and gives no comparative market share analysis. Competitive positioning can only be partly assessed from the portfolio growth and risk management policies described in the document 1.
According to the source, differentiation from other banks rests on a better understanding of customers and simplification of operations, but the document does not quantify its advantages over rivals 1.
- UK banking institutions not named in the source
The 20-F does not name the group's competitors, so no US ticker can be attributed from this source.
- Other banks operating in the UK market
The source mentions the UK market and Bank of England regulation but does not identify other competing participants.
- Financial institutions in the Non-Personal segment
The group is expanding with financial institutions and corporates, which implies rivals in this segment, though the report does not name them.
- Non-bank financial service providers
The source does not describe competition from fintech or non-bank providers, so no data can be drawn from the document.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- NatWest orders 13,000 staff back to their desks two days a weekThe Guardian World · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- NatWest Pulls Back From Dealing US and European Government BondsBloomberg Markets · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- NatWest (NWG) Looks to America for Growth as UK Banking Competition IntensifiesYahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- NatWest revives US expansion plans after UK ringfencing rule changes – reportYahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- NatWest Names Roose Interim Head of Primary Capital MarketsBloomberg Markets · 03 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 20 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)03 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Oct 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NatWest Group plc · 17 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.