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olivLaw · US equity research

Beta Bionics, Inc. BBNX

Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus · SIC 3841 · Vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)

16.95USD+12.25% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Beta Bionics is a medical device company that develops the iLet Bionic Pancreas, which autonomously delivers insulin for people with type 1 diabetes. The company is reducing its reliance on one reimbursement channel by expanding the pharmacy benefit channel and preparing new indications, including type 2 diabetes. Its 2026 guidance points to revenue of roughly 131 to 136 million USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Beta Bionics, Inc. (BBNX) stock was 16.95 USD (+12.25% on the day), with market capitalisation 921.5 m USD, beta 1.71, 52-week range 8.86–31.99 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 35.5 m USD (+30.3% YoY), net income of -24.4 m USD, diluted EPS -0.52 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
921.5 m USD
shares as of 26 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.84 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
-10.88%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.71
Volatility (1y) 88%
52-week range
8.8631.99

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
45.3
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
14.84 – 20.62
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.36 · band width 32.6%
SMA 50 / 200
18.90 / 14.78
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.57 / -0.33
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−10.6%−1.1%−9.5 pp—
3 months+21.9%−0.5%+22.3 pp—
6 months+60.4%+4.4%+56.0 pp—
Year to date−44.4%+12.3%−56.7 pp—
1 year−39.1%+13.5%−52.6 pp−29.7%
3 yearsunavailable+76.4%unavailable−20.7%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−72.3%
08 Jan 2026 → 10 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−72.3%
08 Jan 2026 → 10 Apr 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
35.5 m USD
+30.3% YoY
Net income
-24.4 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.52
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-68.6% / -74.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue20.4 m17.6 m23.2 m27.3 m32.1 m27.6 m32.0 m35.5 m
Cost of revenue8.8 m8.7 m10.7 m12.1 m13.2 m11.2 m13.1 m15.2 m
Gross profit11.7 m9.0 m12.5 m15.1 m18.9 m16.4 m18.9 m20.3 m
Research & development9.2 m7.6 m8.9 m8.2 m10.1 m10.4 m10.2 m12.0 m
Operating income-13.0 m-18.6 m-19.9 m-17.0 m-16.1 m-24.3 m-25.6 m-26.6 m
Net income-18.1 m-28.7 m-16.9 m-14.2 m-13.5 m-21.9 m-23.4 m-24.4 m
Diluted EPS-2.72 ≈-0.93-0.39-0.33-0.30 ≈-0.49-0.53-0.52
Operating cash flow-14.3 m-20.0 m-13.6 m ≈-8.7 m ≈-8.6 m-23.8 m-14.6 m ≈-12.3 m ≈
Capex561.0 k333.0 k1.8 m ≈1.3 m ≈1.9 m1.4 m1.0 m ≈2.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202320242025
Revenue12.0 m65.1 m100.3 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+442.9%+53.9%
Net income-44.1 m-54.8 m-73.2 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-8.31-8.60-1.81
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-367.6%-84.1%-73.0%
Free cash flow-32.8 m-51.7 m-56.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
31.6 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
287.6 m USD
Total assets
328.7 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
8.66x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-30.6%
FCF margin
-56.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
12.0 m
2024
65.1 m
2025
100.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
5.7 m
2024
29.2 m
2025
44.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
6.3 m
2024
35.9 m
2025
55.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
17.9 m
2024
26.2 m
2025
34.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-35.9 m
2024
-45.3 m
2025
-71.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
—
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-44.1 m
2024
-54.8 m
2025
-73.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-8.31
2024
-8.60
2025
-1.81

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
5.3 m
2024
6.4 m
2025
40.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
26.6 m
2024
30.4 m
2025
31.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
4.4 m
2024
12.0 m
2025
17.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.2 m
2024
13.3 m
2025
21.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
103.6 m
2024
132.9 m
2025
267.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
2.5 m
2024
4.8 m
2025
8.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
110.0 m
2024
149.6 m
2025
328.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.2 m
2024
2.9 m
2025
5.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
10.6 m
2024
21.1 m
2025
30.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
51.4 m
2024
73.6 m
2025
41.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-203.1 m †
2024
-245.4 m †
2025
287.6 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-32.4 m
2024
-48.3 m
2025
-50.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
402.0 k
2024
3.4 m
2025
5.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-32.8 m ≈
2024
-51.7 m ≈
2025
-56.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-69.7 m
2024
-3.5 m
2025
-162.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
101.0 m
2024
55.6 m
2025
214.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
53.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
58.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
-72.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-65.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
-51.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-23.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
-21.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-22.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
8.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
8.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-59.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
6.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-66.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
46 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
150 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
165 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
921.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-10.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
7.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-7.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 3 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

16.95 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 921.5 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
921.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-23.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-65.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
53.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

24/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 26 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 27 Oct 2026
verified 335derived 20

Score by group

19% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-65.3%18 (vs peers)33%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet8.9x100 (on a fixed band)22%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-7.2%0 (on a fixed band)44%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial18/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

BETA BIONICS, INC. (BBNX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 100.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 53.9%; net margin -65.3%; ROE -23.9%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 3 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 18.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 8.9x

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -65.3%
  • FCF yield: -7.2%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 22.3x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 19.2x
P/S
7.2x
vertical median 3.2x
above median (+129.7%)
P/B
2.3x
vertical median 3.3x
below median (−31.3%)
ROE
-23.9%
vertical median -50.1%
above median
Net margin
-65.3%
vertical median -11.3%
below median
EBIT margin
-72.7%
vertical median -5.4%
below median
Revenue YoY
53.9%
vertical median 10.2%
above median (+431.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SYKStryker Corp129.3 bn36.216.0%13.8%+11.2%−8% / +15%
MMM3m Company100.2 bn28.980.8%14.0%+1.5%+13% / +134%
BSXBoston Scientific Corporation66.4 bn19.414.3%16.6%+19.9%−55% / −18%
BDXBecton, Dickinson And Company57.0 bn63.23.8%4.0%+8.2%+37% / +13%
RMDResMed Inc.33.8 bn21.926.4%27.8%+9.9%−6% / +52%
DXCMDexcom, Inc.33.0 bn34.837.7%19.4%+15.6%+39% / −23%
WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.28.5 bn45.921.2%18.8%+6.3%+47% / +17%
SOLVSolventum Corporation15.2 bn10.934.0%17.3%+0.9%+5% / unavailable
GMEDGlobus Medical, Inc.11.7 bn22.311.8%17.0%+16.7%−4% / +94%
TFXTeleflex Incorporated6.4 bn—-28.9%-45.8%+17.2%+31% / −34%
ICUIIcu Medical Inc4.3 bn144.21.4%1.4%−6.3%+16% / +97%
ATECAlphatec Holdings, Inc.1.3 bn—-1,888.0%-10.3%+25.0%−63% / −30%
SIBNSi-Bone, Inc.1.1 bn—-7.7%-6.2%+20.2%+28% / +32%
BBNXBeta Bionics, Inc.921.5 m—-23.9%-65.3%+53.9%−39% / unavailable
KIDSOrthoPediatrics Corp875.0 m—-9.8%-12.8%+15.4%+81% / +9%
SGHTSight Sciences, Inc.538.0 m—-50.1%-32.1%−3.1%+16% / +184%
CERSCerus Corp487.7 m—-10.7%-2.9%+16.1%+37% / +50%
SIShoulder Innovations, Inc.437.4 m—-151.9%-58.3%+49.6%+36% / unavailable
OFIXOrthofix Medical Inc.395.9 m—-13.9%-7.4%+2.9%−40% / −12%
CLPTClearPoint Neuro, Inc.325.7 m—-167.5%-79.4%+17.8%−30% / +76%
TMCITreace Medical Concepts, Inc.292.7 m—-72.0%-29.0%+1.6%+51% / −49%
CTSOCytosorbents Corporation286.6 m—-336.2%-48.9%+4.1%−72% / −81%
OSUROrasure Technologies, Inc256.6 m—-14.1%-43.7%−38.1%+56% / −49%
GUTSFractyl Health, Inc.154.8 m———−100.0%−95% / unavailable
KRMDKoru Medical Systems, Inc.151.0 m—-10.5%-4.0%+22.2%−45% / +45%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BBNX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).

    In brief

    Beta Bionics is a medical device company that develops the iLet Bionic Pancreas, which autonomously delivers insulin for people with type 1 diabetes. The company is reducing its reliance on one reimbursement channel by expanding the pharmacy benefit channel and preparing new indications, including type 2 diabetes 23. Its 2026 guidance points to revenue of roughly 131 to 136 million USD 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The algorithm autonomously determines all insulin doses, which simplifies use compared with existing hybrid systems 1.
    • Most new patients come from multiple daily injection therapy rather than competing pumps 23.
    • Partnerships with glucose sensor providers allow integration with widely used platforms 1.

    Weaknesses

    • The company is not yet profitable and has reported net losses in each year since its inception 1.
    • All revenue comes from one product family, making the company vulnerable to changes in its sales 1.
    • Sales are concentrated among a small number of large DME distributors, creating dependence risk 1.

    Opportunities

    • Expanding the pharmacy channel could increase patient access and recurring revenue 12.
    • A type 2 diabetes indication could open a much larger population if pivotal studies succeed 3.
    • Launching Mint and the bihormonal system could extend the market to people who do not use pumps today 13.

    Threats

    • Larger competitors have greater resources, brand recognition and distribution reach 1.
    • Changes in reimbursement policy or healthcare reform could reduce patient access 1.
    • Disruption of sensor supplier agreements or supply chains could affect production 1.

    Risks

    • Limited commercial historymedium

      The product was launched relatively recently, which makes it hard to evaluate future performance 1.

    • Continuing operating losseshigh

      The company cannot assure that it will achieve or sustain profitability in the future 1.

    • Need for additional fundinghigh

      Available funds could be sufficient only into the first half of 2028 if the rate of spending rises 13.

    • Customer concentrationmedium

      A small number of DME distributors account for a significant part of sales, and losing them could affect results 1.

    • Dependence on third parties and regulatorsmedium

      Relationships with sensor suppliers and FDA clearances for new products and indications could delay launches or reduce sales 13.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • Sales growth in the second quarter of 2026 and rapid growth in the pharmacy channel could indicate the business model is scaling 3.
    • If gross margin holds within the guided range, the company could gradually narrow its operating losses 3.
    • Extension to type 2 diabetes and the Mint launch could open large markets if FDA clearances are obtained 13.

    What would break the thesis

    • Net and operating losses remain large relative to sales, and funding could become necessary earlier than estimated 13.
    • Reliance on one product and a few distributors could amplify the effect of any sales or reimbursement shock 1.
    • Larger competitors could respond with new products or more favorable commercial terms, limiting share gains 1.

    What to watch

    • Quarterly results and the PBP share of net salesQ3 2026
    • Gross margin trend against the guided rangeQ3 2026
    • FDA decision on the type 2 diabetes indicationmid-2027
    • Commercial launch of Mint and any need for additional funding2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).

    The business

    Beta Bionics, Inc. is a commercial-stage medical device company that designs and commercializes solutions for people with diabetes who require insulin, using advanced adaptive closed-loop algorithms 1. Its main product, the iLet Bionic Pancreas, was cleared by the FDA for type 1 diabetes in adults and children six and older and launched commercially in May 2023 in the United States 1. The installed base reached 35011 iLets as of December 31, 2025 1.

    Segments

    The iLet device and single-use products

    The iLet combines a pump, algorithms that autonomously determine all insulin doses and a mobile app, while users buy cartridges and infusion sets separately as single-use products 1. All of the company's revenue comes from sales of these products 1.

    DME and PBP reimbursement channels

    The DME channel requires a large upfront payment, while the PBP channel involves a small upfront payment and more expensive consumables over time, which is why PBP is the company's strategic priority 12. PBP's share of net sales rose from 24 percent in 2025 to 37 percent in the first half of 2026 12.

    Development: Mint and the bihormonal iLet

    Mint is a tubeless patch pump in development, and the bihormonal iLet, which also delivers glucagon, is in clinical studies 13. The company has updated its expectation to fully commercialize Mint by the end of the second quarter of 2027, subject to FDA clearance 3.

    Market context

    The target market includes people with type 1 diabetes, estimated at about 1.9 million in the United States, all of whom require daily insulin 1. The company says only about one-third of people with type 1 diabetes use insulin pumps or hybrid systems, with the rest on multiple daily injections 2. Extending to type 2 diabetes requires a new FDA clearance, and a pivotal study started in July 2026 13.

    Most of the company's new patients come from multiple daily injection therapy, suggesting the product attracts users who were not on pumps 23. Sales remain focused on endocrinology practices, with possible expansion to primary care physicians 12.

    Trends

    • Shift toward the pharmacy channelmixed

      Expanding the PBP channel, with lower upfront payments, could speed adoption and reduce dependence on DME distributors 12. The negative initial gross margin on each device remains a near-term pressure 1.

    • Improving gross margintailwind

      Gross margin in the second quarter of 2026 rose compared with a year earlier, and the full-year margin guidance was raised at the lower end 3. Rapid PBP growth could still weigh on margins in some periods 1.

    • Regulatory and reimbursement pressureheadwind

      Changes in payor policies or healthcare reform could affect reimbursement and patient access 1. The company relies on CGM supplier agreements that may be terminated on relatively short notice 1.

    Competitive position

    Beta Bionics competes mainly with insulin pump makers such as Medtronic, Tandem and Insulet, which have greater market share, brand recognition, financial resources and distribution networks 1. Competition also comes from insulin pens, prefilled syringes, inhalable insulin and pharmaceutical companies 1.

    The company says iLet has features its rivals' pumps do not, such as full autonomous dosing without carb counting and a pay-as-you-go reimbursement option 1. Insulet, however, offers a patch-form-factor product that iLet does not yet have 1.

    • Medtronic

      Insulin pump maker cited as a principal competitor, with greater resources and established provider relationships.

    • Tandem

      Insulin pump maker cited as a principal competitor, with well-established distribution networks.

    • Insulet

      Insulin pump maker offering a patch form factor, a category the Mint program aims to address.

    • Insulin pen and syringe makers

      Simpler alternatives to pumps cited as competitive pressure from outside the pump category.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Beta Bionics, Inc. · 24 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Beta Bionics, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Beta Bionics, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.