olivLaw · US equity research
Coty Inc. COTY
Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations · SIC 2844 · Vertical: Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations (SIC 2844)
Coty is one of the world's largest beauty companies, with brands in fragrance, color cosmetics and skin and body care. Net revenues fell to 5806.6 million USD in fiscal 2026, and the company is in the middle of a reorganisation under an interim executive chairman, amid uncertain demand and tariffs.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Coty Inc. (COTY) stock was 3.47 USD (+5.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.1 bn USD, dividend yield 10.81%, beta 0.96, 52-week range 1.85–3.78 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (+1.3% YoY), net income of -141.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.16 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 67.3
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.79 – 3.57
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.87 · band width 24.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.90 / 2.55
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.16 / 0.15
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +27.6% | −1.1% | +28.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +22.6% | −0.5% | +23.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +30.9% | +4.4% | +26.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +12.7% | +12.3% | +0.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −9.4% | +13.5% | −22.9 pp | +9.7% |
| 3 years | −64.6% | +76.4% | −141.0 pp | −12.3% |
| 5 years | −62.6% | +63.7% | −126.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 576.9 m | 555.7 m | 466.7 m | 472.7 m | 560.4 m | 608.0 m | 489.7 m | 496.5 m |
| Gross profit | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 832.4 m | 779.7 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 791.9 m | 772.7 m |
| SG&A | 808.0 m | 797.3 m | 777.5 m | 720.6 m | 793.5 m | 842.5 m | 727.0 m | 744.9 m |
| Operating income | 237.8 m | 268.2 m | -280.4 m | 15.5 m | 185.0 m | 148.2 m | -372.0 m | -42.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 104.6 m | 105.6 m | 105.1 m | 104.7 m | 94.9 m | 130.1 m | 129.1 m | 128.1 m |
| Interest expense | 60.4 m | 56.7 m | 50.2 m | 59.7 m | 51.6 m | 52.4 m | 39.6 m | 40.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 132.7 m | 56.6 m | -460.6 m | -73.5 m | 107.1 m | -168.6 m | -458.9 m | -89.8 m |
| Income tax | 42.0 m | 26.0 m | -58.4 m | -4.2 m | 33.1 m | -52.4 m | -53.2 m | 52.5 m |
| Net income | 82.9 m | 23.7 m | -405.7 m | -68.8 m | 67.9 m | -123.6 m | -408.1 m | -141.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.09 | 0.02 | -0.47 | -0.08 ≈ | 0.07 | -0.14 | -0.47 | -0.16 ≈ |
| Operating cash flow | 67.4 m | 464.5 m ≈ | -122.5 m ≈ | 83.2 m | 65.2 m | 559.7 m ≈ | -203.1 m ≈ | 116.0 m |
| Capex | 75.3 m | 45.5 m ≈ | 45.9 m ≈ | 48.3 m | 54.0 m | 46.6 m ≈ | 45.6 m ≈ | 43.4 m |
| Dividends paid | 3.3 m | 3.4 m ≈ | 3.2 m ≈ | 3.4 m | 3.3 m | 3.3 m ≈ | 3.3 m ≈ | 3.3 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.3 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −8.1% | −25.0% | −1.9% | +14.6% | +4.7% | +10.2% | −3.7% | −1.5% |
| Net income | -3.8 bn | -1.0 bn | -201.3 m | 259.5 m | 508.2 m | 89.4 m | -367.9 m | -604.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +95.8% | −82.4% | −511.5% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -5.04 | -1.33 | -0.40 | 0.08 | 0.57 | 0.09 | -0.44 | -0.70 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +612.5% | −84.2% | −588.9% | unavailable |
| net % | -60.2% | -21.3% | -4.3% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 1.5% | -6.2% | -10.4% |
| Free cash flow | 213.0 m | -318.3 m | 144.8 m | 552.5 m | 402.9 m | 369.4 m | 277.6 m | 348.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
- Cash
- 176.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.9 bn USD
- Equity
- 3.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 10.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.96x
- Current ratio
- 0.75x
- ROE
- -17.6%
- ROA
- -5.5%
- FCF margin
- 6.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.6 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Research & development | 96.5 m | 97.3 m | 105.2 m | 126.8 m | 123.0 m | 121.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| SG&A | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Operating income | -48.6 m | 240.9 m | 543.7 m | 546.7 m | 241.1 m | -81.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 585.3 m | 516.4 m | 426.7 m | 421.1 m | 420.0 m | 482.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 536.7 m ≈ | 757.3 m ≈ | 970.4 m ≈ | 967.8 m ≈ | 661.1 m ≈ | 400.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 231.8 m | 241.2 m | 261.1 m | 251.6 m | 227.0 m | 184.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -239.8 m | 426.8 m | 704.8 m | 204.5 m | -344.8 m | -610.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Income tax | -172.0 m | 164.8 m | 181.6 m | 95.1 m | 5.4 m | -20.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Net income | -201.3 m | 259.5 m | 508.2 m | 89.4 m | -367.9 m | -604.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.40 | 0.08 | 0.57 | 0.09 | -0.44 | -0.70 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 764.8 m | 834.1 m | 886.5 m | 883.4 m | 870.9 m | 877.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 253.5 m | 233.3 m | 246.9 m | 300.8 m | 257.1 m | 176.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Receivables | 348.0 m | 364.6 m | 360.9 m | 441.6 m | 526.4 m | 525.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Inventories | 650.8 m | 661.5 m | 853.4 m | 764.1 m | 794.5 m | 838.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 918.1 m | 715.5 m | 712.9 m | 718.9 m | 709.2 m | 650.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 4.1 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 4.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 13.7 bn | 12.1 bn | 12.7 bn | 12.1 bn | 11.9 bn | 10.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 24.2 m | 23.0 m | 57.9 m | 3.0 m | 3.5 m | 14.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 5.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 9.5 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.4 bn | 7.8 bn | 8.0 bn | 6.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 318.7 m | 726.6 m | 625.7 m | 614.6 m | 492.6 m | 537.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Capex | 173.9 m | 174.1 m | 222.8 m | 245.2 m | 215.0 m | 189.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 144.8 m ≈ | 552.5 m ≈ | 402.9 m ≈ | 369.4 m ≈ | 277.6 m ≈ | 348.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 2.4 bn | 269.7 m | -118.2 m | -226.2 m | -128.4 m | 539.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.8 bn | -1.0 bn | -469.3 m | -336.7 m | -426.8 m | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 25.7 m | 57.2 m | 13.7 m | 13.4 m | 13.3 m | 13.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Aug 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Aug 2021verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 23 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet10
- Valuation45
- Quality8
- Growth12
- Returns44
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.93 – 14.43 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)6.16 – 14.43 (Mid 8.97)WACC 7.2% · starting FCFF 502.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 80%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -21.7%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA5.58 – 8.03 (Mid 6.81)4 companies used · median multiple 22.1x · quartiles 19.4x – 24.8xCL, ELF, EPC, KVUE
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)4.93 – 6.63 (Mid 5.65)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 23/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -1.0% | 0 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Net margin · Quality | -10.4% | 20 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.5% | 12 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 7.2x | 20 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 14.8x | 2 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.4% | 6 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 3.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet10/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial12/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality8/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation45/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
COTY INC. (COTY). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.8 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -1.5%; net margin -10.4%; ROE -18.5%; net debt/EBITDA 7.2x.
The estimated value range is 5.58–8.03 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 6.81 USD, the price of 3.47 USD leaves a potential of 96.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 49.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 23/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF yield: 11.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 3.8%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -1.0%
- Net margin: -10.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.5%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 7.2x
- Interest coverage: -0.4x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 14.8x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.4%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM).
Versus the vertical median
Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations (SIC 2844) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 15 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | 78.5 bn | 38.7 | 358.9% | 9.6% | +1.4% | +23% / +25% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | 37.1 bn | 21.9 | 16.3% | 10.9% | −2.1% | +34% / +4% |
| ELFe.l.f. Beauty, Inc. | 6.7 bn | 113.6 | 6.0% | 3.4% | +24.6% | +49% / −4% |
| IPARInterparfums, Inc. | 4.0 bn | 23.3 | 19.5% | 11.3% | +2.5% | +52% / −1% |
| COTYCoty Inc. | 3.1 bn | — | -18.5% | -10.4% | −1.5% | −9% / −65% |
| EPCEdgewell Personal Care Company | 1.4 bn | — | -6.2% | -4.2% | −1.3% | +66% / −15% |
| SLSNSolesence, Inc. | 64.6 m | — | -15.1% | -3.8% | +18.6% | −60% / +22% |
| AXILAxil Brands, Inc. | 38.2 m | 16.7 | 23.3% | 9.3% | +17.5% | +10% / unavailable |
| UGUnited-Guardian, Inc. | 31.5 m | 12.8 | 21.4% | 22.0% | −13.4% | +18% / −16% |
| CABRCaring Brands, Inc. | 9.3 m | — | -3,889.1% | -183,298.7% | unavailable | −13% / unavailable |
| BNKKBonk, Inc. | 9.3 m | — | -332.4% | -2,330.4% | +201.6% | −82% / −99% |
| YCBDcbdMD, Inc. | 4.5 m | — | -40.3% | -13.8% | −1.5% | −34% / −93% |
| ELEstee Lauder Companies Inc | — | 111.7 | 9.3% | 2.4% | +5.0% | +19% / −12% |
| ODDOddity Tech Ltd | — | 12.0 | 32.6% | 13.7% | +25.2% | −50% / −37% |
| HLNHaleon plc | — | — | 10.2% | 15.1% | −1.8% | −6% / +8% |
| YSGYatsen Holding Limited | — | — | -2.7% | -1.9% | +32.2% | −67% / −49% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for COTY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 20 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Coty is one of the world's largest beauty companies, with brands in fragrance, color cosmetics and skin and body care. Net revenues fell to 5806.6 million USD in fiscal 2026, and the company is in the middle of a reorganisation under an interim executive chairman, amid uncertain demand and tariffs.
SWOT
Strengths
- Coty has a portfolio of well-known brands and strong positions in fragrance, with long-term licenses and a largely integrated production chain 1.
- The company generates operating cash and has a broad global presence with varied distribution channels, from mass retail to duty-free 12.
- Prestige color cosmetics grew in fiscal 2026, showing that some categories can offset weakness elsewhere in the portfolio 1.
Weaknesses
- Sales fell on a like-for-like basis in fiscal 2026, and reported operating results were negative with large net losses 2.
- Total debt remains high, and leverage raises questions about financial flexibility, especially if profits stay under pressure 2.
- Consumer Beauty has lost sales and market share, and the company acknowledges that its sell-out trails the market 12.
Opportunities
- If the Coty.Curated plan succeeds, the company could focus investment on fragrance and on the brands with the greatest profit potential 1.
- Selling assets and licenses can reduce debt and free resources to reinvest in core brands 2.
- Growth in e-commerce and direct-to-consumer sales could lift margins if digital investments pay off 1.
Threats
- Losing the Gucci Beauty license will cut sales and profit from fiscal 2028, and the company must offset that gap 1.
- US trade tariffs and the Middle East conflict could raise costs and reduce demand if tensions worsen 1.
- Competition from new brands and retailers' private-label products could reduce prices and the company's market share 1.
Risks
- Loss of the Gucci licensehigh
Returning the Gucci Beauty license will reduce sales and profit from fiscal 2028, and the plan to offset this is not yet proven 12.
- Debt and covenantshigh
Debt is high, and financing agreements include restrictions that could limit flexibility if profits stay under pressure 1.
- Tariffs and supply chainmedium
Tariffs and supply chain disruptions can raise cost of goods sold, and IEEPA refunds are uncertain in amount and timing 1.
- Middle East conflictmedium
The conflict could affect the global economy, logistics and demand in the region, and oil prices could raise production costs 1.
- Talc litigationmedium
The company faces talc-related lawsuits alleging bodily injury, which can generate costs and affect brand reputation 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the restructuring and the focus on fragrance work, profitability could gradually recover, especially once the investment phase in skin care is complete 1.
- The Wella and Gucci sales have reduced debt, and a cleaner balance sheet could leave more room for innovation and well-targeted acquisitions 2.
- Free cash flow generation remains solid even with lower profit, which supports the company's ability to fund its plans 2.
What would break the thesis
- If like-for-like sales keep falling, the cost reduction plan may not offset losses from licenses and markets 12.
- Reliance on a few large retailers and pressure from new brands could limit margin expansion 1.
- Reported net losses and high debt leave little room for error if tariffs or regional conflicts worsen 2.
What to watch
- First-quarter results and net revenue trend, which management expects to decline by a low to mid single-digit percentageQ1 2027
- Final decision on the Consumer Beauty segment following the strategic reviewend of 2026
- Cost reduction plan due to begin in the second half of fiscal 20272027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 20 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Founded in 1904, Coty Inc. is listed on the NYSE and in Paris and sells fragrances, make-up and skin and body care in about 122 countries and territories 1. The portfolio includes owned and licensed brands such as Gucci, Burberry, Calvin Klein and Kylie Cosmetics, as well as mass brands like CoverGirl, Rimmel and Sally Hansen 1. The company manufactures most of its products itself, mainly in the United States, Brazil and Europe, with about 81% made in-house 1.
In recent quarters Coty simplified its portfolio: it received 750 million USD from the sale of its Wella stake and agreed to return the Gucci Beauty license to Kering for 400 million USD, about one year before expiry 2. These moves reduce debt but remove an important brand from future revenue, which management describes as making fiscal 2027 a transition year 2.
Segments
Prestige
The Prestige segment includes fragrances and luxury brands such as Gucci, Burberry, Calvin Klein and Kylie Cosmetics and accounted for about 66% of net sales in fiscal 2026 1. In the quarter ended June 30 2026 Prestige sales rose slightly on a reported basis but fell on a like-for-like basis, with a headwind from the Middle East conflict 2.
Consumer Beauty
The Consumer Beauty segment covers mass brands such as CoverGirl, Rimmel, Sally Hansen and Adidas, and sales fell on a like-for-like basis in fiscal 2026, especially in color cosmetics 12. Management is reviewing this segment strategically, and the 'Color the Future' roadmap aims to stabilise margins 1.
Market context
Management sees the prestige fragrance market as structurally attractive, growing at a mid-single-digit rate but highly competitive 1. The color cosmetics market has been reshaped by smaller competitors that react quickly to trends, and consumers are becoming more selective in purchases 1. The Middle East conflict and US tariffs add uncertainty to demand and costs.
Trends
- US tariffs and trade policymixed
Changes in US trade policy and higher tariffs raised costs, especially for prestige fragrances shipped from Barcelona 1. The company moved mass fragrance production to the US and may recover part of the IEEPA tariffs, which could ease pressure if refunds are accepted 1.
- Middle East conflictheadwind
The conflict in the region reduced sales there and pushed up energy prices; management estimates an additional cost impact if Brent crude stays high 1. If tensions widen, demand and supply chains could be affected further 1.
- Digital channels and e-commercetailwind
Shoppers are buying more online, and Coty is expanding e-commerce, direct-to-consumer sales and the use of AI for marketing and forecasting 1. If these investments offset weakness in traditional channels, the company could regain lost market share 1.
- Retail consolidationheadwind
Consolidation among US and Western European retailers leaves Coty dependent on fewer key customers who can press for harsher trade terms 1. Price pressure and shelf restrictions may limit growth, particularly for mass brands 1.
Competitive position
Coty operates in a highly competitive market against large multinational groups, retailers' private-label brands and new niche brands 1. Competition rests on price, quality, innovation, in-store presence and the use of AI and data analytics in marketing 1. Management says the timing and impact of competitors' actions are hard to predict 1.
In fragrance, pressure comes from new launches, niche brands and e-commerce, while in cosmetics it comes from fast-moving smaller brands that engage consumers digitally 1. If Coty cannot sustain its pace of innovation and sales, its position could weaken against these competitors 1.
- Large multinational consumer goods groups
Large companies with greater financial resources that can respond more quickly to economic change and compete for the same mass and prestige shelf space 1.
- Retailers' private-label brands
Store-brand products that compete directly with the company's mass brands, mainly in pharmacies and hypermarkets 1.
- Niche and emerging brands
Small companies that react quickly to trends and have a strong digital presence, attracting younger consumers especially in fragrance and cosmetics 1.
- Celebrity and influencer-backed brands
Brands built around public personalities with large online followings that compete directly with the company's make-up and skin care lines 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Coty Sees Weak Quarterly Profit, Withholds Annual Forecasts in “Transition Year”Yahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- Coty (COTY) Shares Came Under Pressure. Is the “Transition Year” Hiding a Deeper Portfolio Problem?Yahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Walmart Tumbles on Sales; Coty Falls on Forecast | Stock MoversBloomberg Markets · 20 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement24 Sept 2026
- Current report11 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report20 Aug 2026
- Current report19 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Coty Inc. · 20 Aug 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Coty Inc. · 19 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.