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olivLaw · US equity research

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. EL

Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations · SIC 2844 · Vertical: Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations (SIC 2844)

112.04USD+6.31% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

The Estée Lauder Companies is one of the world's leading makers and sellers of luxury and prestige beauty products, with brands such as Estée Lauder, La Mer, M·A·C and Jo Malone London. Sales returned to growth in fiscal 2026 and adjusted operating margin improved significantly under the 'Beauty Reimagined' strategy.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) stock was 112.04 USD (+6.31% on the day), with P/E 111.7 on diluted EPS of 1.00 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.25%, beta 1.39, 52-week range 67.23–119.61 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 3.7 bn USD (+6.7% YoY), net income of 233.0 m USD (+395.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.64 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
unavailable
P/E (TTM)
111.7
Diluted EPS TTM 1.00 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
0.90%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.25%
DPS 12m 1.40
Beta (2y)
1.39
Volatility (1y) 49%
52-week range
67.23119.61

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
65.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
96.47 – 113.94
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.89 · band width 16.6%
SMA 50 / 200
100.59 / 91.45
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
3.02 / 2.96
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+20.1%−1.1%+21.2 pp—
3 months+28.8%−0.5%+29.3 pp—
6 months+29.3%+4.4%+24.9 pp—
Year to date+7.0%+12.3%−5.3 pp—
1 year+20.6%+13.5%+7.1 pp+4.5%
3 years+1.0%+76.4%−75.4 pp−14.8%
5 years−67.9%+63.7%−131.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−43.8%
04 Feb 2026 → 27 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−86.5%
04 Jan 2022 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−20.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
3.7 bn USD
+6.7% YoY
Net income
233.0 m USD
+395.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.64
+392.3% YoY
net / operating
6.3% / 11.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27
Revenue4.0 bn3.6 bn3.4 bn3.5 bn4.2 bn3.7 bn3.6 bn3.7 bn
Cost of revenue957.0 m889.0 m955.0 m927.0 m994.0 m876.0 m890.0 m902.0 m
Gross profit3.0 bn2.7 bn2.5 bn2.6 bn3.2 bn2.8 bn2.7 bn2.8 bn
SG&A2.6 bn2.3 bn2.3 bn2.3 bn2.6 bn2.3 bn2.5 bn2.4 bn
Operating income-580.0 m306.0 m-390.0 m169.0 m401.0 m249.0 m-39.0 m408.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation207.0 m204.0 m210.0 m200.0 m197.0 m201.0 m198.0 m191.0 m
Interest expense90.0 m87.0 m88.0 m86.0 m85.0 m82.0 m81.0 m83.0 m
Pre-tax income-650.0 m241.0 m-451.0 m109.0 m333.0 m179.0 m-104.0 m345.0 m
Income tax-60.0 m82.0 m95.0 m62.0 m171.0 m90.0 m12.0 m112.0 m
Net income-590.0 m159.0 m-546.0 m47.0 m162.0 m89.0 m-116.0 m233.0 m
Diluted EPS-1.640.44-1.51 ≈0.130.440.24-0.32 ≈0.64
Operating cash flow1.1 bn ≈284.0 m ≈601.0 m-340.0 m1.1 bn ≈412.0 m ≈576.0 m-166.0 m
Capex132.0 m ≈122.0 m ≈207.0 m96.0 m108.0 m ≈102.0 m ≈151.0 m69.0 m
Dividends paid126.0 m ≈126.0 m ≈126.0 m127.0 m128.0 m ≈126.0 m ≈127.0 m126.0 m
Share repurchases25.0 m ≈0 ≈09.0 m58.0 m ≈3.0 m ≈01.0 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 86 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 26.4, median 45.0, max 178.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue14.9 bn14.3 bn16.2 bn17.7 bn15.9 bn15.6 bn14.3 bn15.0 bn
Revenue YoY+8.6%−3.8%+13.4%+9.4%−10.3%−1.9%−8.2%+5.0%
Net income1.8 bn684.0 m2.9 bn2.4 bn1.0 bn409.0 m-1.1 bn182.0 m
Net income YoY+61.1%−61.7%+320.3%−16.2%−58.1%−59.5%−377.0%unavailable
Diluted EPS4.821.867.796.552.791.08-3.150.50
Diluted EPS YoY+63.4%−61.4%+318.8%−15.9%−57.4%−61.3%−391.7%unavailable
net %12.0%4.8%17.7%13.6%6.3%2.6%-7.9%1.2%
Free cash flow1.8 bn1.7 bn3.0 bn2.0 bn728.0 m1.4 bn670.0 m1.3 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Cash
3.5 bn USD
Financial debt
503.0 m USD
Net debt
-3.0 bn USD
Equity
3.8 bn USD
Total assets
19.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.13x
Current ratio
1.22x
ROE
4.7%
ROA
0.9%
FCF margin
8.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
15.6 bn
2025
14.3 bn
2026
15.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
4.4 bn
2025
3.7 bn
2026
3.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
11.2 bn
2025
10.6 bn
2026
11.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

SG&A
2024
9.6 bn
2025
9.5 bn
2026
9.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Operating income
2024
970.0 m
2025
-785.0 m
2026
780.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
825.0 m
2025
829.0 m
2026
796.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
1.8 bn ≈
2025
44.0 m ≈
2026
1.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
378.0 m
2025
357.0 m
2026
334.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
772.0 m
2025
-1.0 bn
2026
517.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Income tax
2024
363.0 m
2025
93.0 m
2026
335.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Net income
2024
409.0 m
2025
-1.1 bn
2026
182.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
1.08
2025
-3.15
2026
0.50

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
360.8 m
2025
360.1 m
2026
364.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
2.64
2025
1.71
2026
1.40

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
3.4 bn
2025
2.9 bn
2026
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Receivables
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.5 bn
2026
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Inventories
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.1 bn
2026
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Current assets
2024
7.9 bn
2025
7.1 bn
2026
7.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.2 bn
2026
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.1 bn
2026
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
5.2 bn
2025
3.8 bn
2026
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Total assets
2024
21.7 bn
2025
19.9 bn
2026
19.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
504.0 m
2025
3.0 m
2026
503.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
5.7 bn
2025
5.4 bn
2026
6.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Equity
2024
5.3 bn
2025
3.9 bn
2026
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
2.4 bn
2025
1.3 bn
2026
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Capex
2024
919.0 m
2025
602.0 m
2026
457.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
1.4 bn ≈
2025
670.0 m ≈
2026
1.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-960.0 m
2025
-623.0 m
2026
-489.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-2.0 bn
2025
-1.1 bn
2026
-712.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
947.0 m
2025
618.0 m
2026
508.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
35.0 m
2025
35.0 m
2026
70.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Aug 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
5.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-1.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
-43.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
-42.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
-43.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
-42.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
96.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
76.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
11.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
6.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
9.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
9.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
7.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
139.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
33.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
430.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
1.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
412.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
107.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
45 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
210 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
111.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

112.04 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: unavailable

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
111.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
9.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
5.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 02 Nov 2026
verified 2673derived 205

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
15.61
USD per share
Mid
18.91
USD per share
High
23.35
USD per share
Price: 112.04 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -83.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -492.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 12.82 – 24.74 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E12.82 – 21.96 (Mid 16.73)
    5 companies used · median multiple 16.7x · quartiles 12.8x – 21.9x
    AXIL, IPAR, KVUE, ODD, UG
  • Dividend discount (DDM)18.40 – 24.74 (Mid 21.10)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations (SIC 2844)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality2.4%47 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Quality412.2%100 (on a fixed band)12%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.8%0 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-43.6%0 (on a fixed band)15%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.1x24 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.3x38 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation111.7x14 (vs peers)19%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns33.4%100 (on a fixed band)8%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet30/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality73/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial14/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Estee Lauder Companies Inc (EL). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 15.0 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 5.0%; net margin 2.4%; ROE 9.3%.

The estimated value range is 15.61–23.35 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 18.91 USD, the price of 112.04 USD leaves a potential of -83.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -492.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 412.2%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 33.4%

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.8%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -43.6%
  • Interest coverage: 3.1x
  • P/E (TTM): 111.7x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations (SIC 2844) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 15 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
111.7x
vertical median 21.9x
above median (+410.2%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 22.1x
P/S
—
vertical median 2.5x
P/B
—
vertical median 2.8x
ROE
9.3%
vertical median 6.0%
above median (+53.7%)
Net margin
2.4%
vertical median 3.4%
below median (−28.8%)
EBIT margin
6.7%
vertical median 8.6%
below median (−22.5%)
Revenue YoY
5.0%
vertical median 1.9%
above median (+159.5%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.3x
Dividend yield
1.2%
vertical median 2.6%
below median (−51.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CLColgate-Palmolive Company78.5 bn38.7358.9%9.6%+1.4%+23% / +25%
KVUEKenvue Inc.37.1 bn21.916.3%10.9%−2.1%+34% / +4%
ELFe.l.f. Beauty, Inc.6.7 bn113.66.0%3.4%+24.6%+49% / −4%
IPARInterparfums, Inc.4.0 bn23.319.5%11.3%+2.5%+52% / −1%
COTYCoty Inc.3.1 bn—-18.5%-10.4%−1.5%+5% / −70%
EPCEdgewell Personal Care Company1.4 bn—-6.2%-4.2%−1.3%+66% / −15%
SLSNSolesence, Inc.64.6 m—-15.1%-3.8%+18.6%−60% / +22%
AXILAxil Brands, Inc.38.2 m16.723.3%9.3%+17.5%+10% / unavailable
UGUnited-Guardian, Inc.31.5 m12.821.4%22.0%−13.4%+18% / −16%
CABRCaring Brands, Inc.9.3 m—-3,889.1%-183,298.7%unavailable−13% / unavailable
BNKKBonk, Inc.9.3 m—-332.4%-2,330.4%+201.6%−82% / −99%
YCBDcbdMD, Inc.4.5 m—-40.3%-13.8%−1.5%−34% / −93%
ELEstee Lauder Companies Inc—111.79.3%2.4%+5.0%+21% / +1%
ODDOddity Tech Ltd—12.032.6%13.7%+25.2%−50% / −37%
HLNHaleon plc——10.2%15.1%−1.8%−6% / +8%
YSGYatsen Holding Limited——-2.7%-1.9%+32.2%−67% / −49%

1- and 3-year price returns: for EL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).

In brief

The Estée Lauder Companies is one of the world's leading makers and sellers of luxury and prestige beauty products, with brands such as Estée Lauder, La Mer, M·A·C and Jo Malone London. Sales returned to growth in fiscal 2026 and adjusted operating margin improved significantly under the 'Beauty Reimagined' strategy.12

SWOT

Strengths

  • A diversified portfolio of luxury and prestige brands, with several brands passing the one billion dollar sales mark in fiscal 2026 2.
  • Wide global presence across hundreds of markets, with a network of company-owned stores and partnerships with leading retailers 1.
  • Improved margins and cash flow, supported by the profit recovery program and operational discipline 2.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on a few key retailers, whose financial difficulties could affect the company's collections 1.
  • Volatile operating results in earlier years, including asset impairments and significant restructuring charges 1.
  • Family control and concentrated voting power could limit the influence of minority shareholders on strategic decisions 1.

Opportunities

  • Expansion into fast-growing categories such as fragrance and into online and freestanding channels, seen as long-term growth areas 1.
  • Growth in the United States and emerging markets, if the regional strategy delivers results 2.
  • Innovation and the use of artificial intelligence could improve efficiency and consumer engagement 1.

Threats

  • Intense competition from larger companies and newer independent brands 1.
  • Trade tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty could affect costs and demand 12.
  • Litigation risks, including those concerning talc products, could create additional costs 2.

Risks

  • Intense competitionhigh

    Larger or more agile competitors could erode the company's market share, especially in channels where it is less represented.1

  • Trade tariffshigh

    Tariffs imposed in the United States and other markets could reduce profitability and cash flow, depending on actual rates and countries involved.1

  • Talc litigation and regulationmedium

    Proceedings related to talc products have already generated charges, and future obligations could be significant if new claims are filed.2

  • Dependence on retailersmedium

    Financial difficulties at major retailers could affect collections and reduce access to certain distribution channels.1

  • Artificial intelligence riskslow

    Use of artificial intelligence could create privacy, accuracy or reputational issues, and evolving regulation could add compliance costs.1

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The return to organic growth and the expansion of adjusted operating margin could support continued improvement in results if the 'Beauty Reimagined' strategy keeps delivering.2
  • Fast-growing luxury brands such as Jo Malone London and TOM FORD could keep contributing to sales, and share gains in China and Japan could strengthen the company's position.2
  • Higher free cash flow could give the company flexibility to invest in consumer-facing activities and pursue strategic acquisitions.2

What would break the thesis

  • Intense competition and pressure from new independent brands could limit growth and require additional promotional spending.1
  • Tariffs and trade uncertainty could reduce margins in the coming years, especially if refunds do not offset the costs.12
  • Restructuring and litigation costs weighed on past results, and similar charges could recur.12

What to watch

  • Evolution of organic sales growth and adjusted operating margin against the fiscal 2027 outlook2027
  • Impact of tariffs and IEEPA refunds on cost of salesnext 10-K
  • Performance in the United States and Mainland China marketsQ1 2027
  • Development of talc litigation and any new claimsnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 19 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).

The business

Founded in 1946, the company makes and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care under more than 20 luxury and prestige brands sold in about 150 countries and territories.1 It operates as a wholesaler through department stores, duty-free retailers, perfumeries and e-commerce platforms, and also runs a direct-to-consumer business with approximately 1,600 freestanding stores as of June 30, 2026.1 The Lauder family controls the company, with approximately 82% of the outstanding voting power.1

The 'Beauty Reimagined' strategic vision, launched in February 2025, focuses on consumer coverage, innovation, consumer-facing investment and efficiencies, supported by the 'One ELC' operating model that simplifies the organization.1 From July 1, 2025 the company reports four geographic regions: The Americas, EUKEM, Asia/Pacific and Mainland China.1

In fiscal 2026 net sales were 15,049 million USD, up 5% from the prior year, with organic growth of 3%.2 Gross margin rose to 75.5%, and free cash flow reached 1.32 billion USD compared with 0.67 billion in the prior year.2

Segments

Skin Care

The largest category, with net sales of 7,338 million USD in fiscal 2026, up from 6,962 million the year before.1 It includes brands such as La Mer, Clinique and Origins.1

Makeup and Fragrance

Makeup generated 4,276 million USD and fragrance 2,779 million USD in fiscal 2026, with fragrance among the faster-growing categories.1 Fragrance brands include Jo Malone London, TOM FORD and Le Labo.1

Market context

The prestige beauty market combines the repeat purchase and relative affordability of consumer goods with high quality products, and the company is active in more than 150 countries.1 Mainland China generated 3,058 million USD in fiscal 2026 and is one of the company's most important markets.1

The company identifies priority emerging markets such as Brazil, Mexico and India for expansion; its growth could depend on recovery in Western markets where it still faces difficulties in Western Europe and the United States.1

Trends

  • Tariffsheadwind

    US tariffs raised costs and created volatility; the company anticipates an adverse effect on fiscal 2027 profitability, although IEEPA refunds partly offset the impact in fiscal 2026.12

  • Prestige growth in Chinatailwind

    The company gained value share in Mainland China and Japan, and its brands ranked first in key online shopping moments in China.2

  • E-commerce and social mediamixed

    Sales on platforms such as Amazon and TikTok Shop expanded, and consumer preferences shift quickly under social media influence, which could favor brands that adapt fast.12

  • Decline in department store trafficheadwind

    In the United States there has been a longer-term decline in retail traffic in department stores, which could increase dependence on a few key retailers.1

Competitive position

The market is highly competitive, with large multinational companies and newer independent brands, some backed by private-equity investors, competing in channels where the company is less represented.1 Some competitors have greater resources, and key retailers sell rival brands.1

Competition is based on pricing, innovation, perceived value, consumer service, promotion and e-commerce, including the use of artificial intelligence and data analytics.1

  • Other multinational beauty companies

    Large consumer product companies that compete directly in skin care, makeup and fragrance, referred to generically in the official filing.

  • Indie Brands

    Newer companies, some backed by private-equity investors, that gain share through alternative channels.

  • Retailers that sell competing brands

    Some of the company's largest customers also sell rival brands, which creates competitive pressure.

  • Prestige competitors with greater resources

    Competitors with larger resources are mentioned without names in the source, and competition in prestige channels remains intense.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 17 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. · 19 Aug 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. · 19 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.