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olivLaw · US equity research

Delta Air Lines, Inc. DAL

Air Transportation, Scheduled · SIC 4512 · Vertical: Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512)

83.28USD−0.17% · 1 dayClose 03 Nov 2026

Delta Air Lines is a global airline based in the United States that builds its advantage on people, operational reliability, a global network and the SkyMiles loyalty program. With operating revenue of 63.4 billion USD in 2025 and strong demand for premium products, the company remains in focus in a high fuel cost environment.

At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) stock was 83.28 USD (−0.17% on the day), with market capitalisation 54.8 bn USD, P/E 16.6 on diluted EPS of 5.01 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.86%, beta 1.77, 52-week range 55.65–93.66 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 20.2 bn USD (+21.1% YoY), net income of 756.0 m USD (−46.6% YoY), diluted EPS 1.15 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
54.8 bn USD
shares as of 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.6
Diluted EPS TTM 5.01 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.01%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.86%
DPS 12m 0.71
Beta (2y)
1.77
Volatility (1y) 38%
52-week range
55.6593.66

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
57.0
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
74.37 – 84.78
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.86 · band width 13.1%
SMA 50 / 200
80.51 / 76.82
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.17 / -0.52
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−1.0%−2.0%+1.0 pp—
3 months−10.2%−2.2%−8.1 pp—
6 months+17.5%+4.3%+13.3 pp—
Year to date+20.0%+10.6%+9.4 pp—
1 year+42.4%+10.5%+31.9 pp+0.7%
3 years+149.7%+73.7%+76.0 pp+57.5%
5 years+103.2%+61.7%+41.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−23.1%
06 Feb 2026 → 12 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−48.0%
04 Feb 2025 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+15.2%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
20.2 bn USD
+21.1% YoY
Net income
756.0 m USD
−46.6% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.15
−47.0% YoY
net / operating
3.7% / 7.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue15.6 bn14.0 bn16.6 bn16.7 bn16.0 bn15.9 bn19.8 bn20.2 bn
Operating income1.7 bn569.0 m2.1 bn1.7 bn1.5 bn501.0 m1.9 bn1.5 bn
Depreciation & amortisation635.0 m607.0 m602.0 m614.0 m620.0 m635.0 m656.0 m673.0 m
Pre-tax income1.2 bn320.0 m2.6 bn1.8 bn1.5 bn-214.0 m2.0 bn1.1 bn
Income tax359.0 m80.0 m444.0 m360.0 m294.0 m75.0 m405.0 m318.0 m
Net income843.0 m240.0 m2.1 bn1.4 bn1.2 bn-289.0 m1.6 bn756.0 m
Diluted EPS1.29 ≈0.373.272.171.86 ≈-0.442.441.15
Operating cash flow1.9 bn2.4 bn1.9 bn ≈1.8 bn ≈2.3 bn2.4 bn1.6 bn ≈1.7 bn ≈
Capex1.3 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn907.0 m1.2 bn——
Dividends paid96.0 m99.0 m97.0 m ≈122.0 m ≈122.0 m129.0 m123.0 m ≈141.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 87 percentile of its own 38-quarter history (min 5.3, median 8.9, max 247.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue44.4 bn47.0 bn17.1 bn29.9 bn50.6 bn58.0 bn61.6 bn63.4 bn
Revenue YoY+7.7%+5.8%−63.6%+74.9%+69.2%+14.8%+6.2%+2.8%
Net income3.9 bn4.8 bn-12.4 bn280.0 m1.3 bn4.6 bn3.5 bn5.0 bn
Net income YoY+22.8%+21.1%−359.8%unavailable+370.7%+249.7%−25.0%+44.8%
Diluted EPS5.677.30-19.490.442.067.175.337.66
Diluted EPS YoY+28.0%+28.7%−367.0%unavailable+368.2%+248.1%−25.7%+43.7%
net %8.9%10.1%-72.4%0.9%2.6%7.9%5.6%7.9%
Free cash flow1.8 bn3.5 bn-5.7 bn17.0 m-3.0 m1.1 bn2.9 bn3.8 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
4.3 bn USD
Financial debt
13.3 bn USD
Net debt
9.0 bn USD
Equity
20.9 bn USD
Total assets
81.3 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.64x
Current ratio
0.40x
ROE
27.7%
ROA
6.4%
FCF margin
6.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
58.0 bn
2024
61.6 bn
2025
63.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
5.5 bn
2024
6.0 bn
2025
5.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
7.9 bn ≈
2024
8.5 bn ≈
2025
8.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
5.6 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
6.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
999.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
4.6 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
7.17
2024
5.33
2025
7.66

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
643.0 m
2024
648.0 m
2025
654.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.20
2024
0.50
2025
0.68

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
2.7 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
10.3 bn
2024
9.8 bn
2025
11.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
9.8 bn
2024
9.8 bn
2025
9.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
6.0 bn
2024
6.0 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
73.6 bn
2024
75.4 bn
2025
81.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
4.4 bn
2024
4.7 bn
2025
5.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
2.6 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
16.0 bn
2024
13.5 bn
2025
11.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
26.4 bn
2024
26.7 bn
2025
27.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
11.1 bn †
2024
15.3 bn †
2025
20.9 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
6.5 bn
2024
8.0 bn
2025
8.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
5.3 bn
2024
5.1 bn
2025
4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.1 bn ≈
2024
2.9 bn ≈
2025
3.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.1 bn
2024
-3.7 bn
2025
-4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-3.4 bn
2024
-4.3 bn
2025
-3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
128.0 m
2024
321.0 m
2025
440.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2023verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
30.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-2.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
44.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
56.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
43.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
54.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
33.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
7.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
4.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
15.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
13.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
14.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
14.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
8.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
8.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
4.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 31 Mar 2026
Free cash flow
3.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
107.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
101.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
54.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
63.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
16.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
11.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
15.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 63 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

83.28 USD

03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 54.8 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
54.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
15.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 09 Oct 2026
verified 2426derived 178

Score by group

  • Valuation57
  • Returns48
  • Quality73
  • Balance sheet50
  • Growth82

Estimated value range

Low
48.46
USD per share
Mid
57.46
USD per share
High
140.17
USD per share
Price: 83.28 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -31.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -44.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: same comparison basis (not independent confirmations) · 2 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 46.54 – 155.20 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA50.37 – 125.14 (Mid 65.84)
    8 companies used · median multiple 6.6x · quartiles 5.3x – 11.5x
    AAL, ALGT, ALK, CPA, LUV, RJET, SKYW, UAL
  • Peers: P/E46.54 – 155.20 (Mid 49.09)
    7 companies used · median multiple 9.8x · quartiles 9.3x – 31.0x
    ALGT, CPA, LUV, RJET, RYAAY, SKYW, UAL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate8.87 – 11.93 (Mid 10.17)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 63/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality13.2%67 (vs peers)11%
Net margin · Quality4.6%58 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality107.1%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth7.8%65 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth54.9%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.1x70 (vs peers)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.4x0 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation16.6x50 (vs peers)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation8.0x44 (vs peers)11%
FCF yield · Valuation6.4%80 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.9%13 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns14.6%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth82/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality73/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

DELTA AIR LINES, INC. (DAL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 63.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.8%; net margin 4.6%; ROE 15.9%; net debt/EBITDA 1.1x.

The estimated value range is 48.46–140.17 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 57.46 USD, the price of 83.28 USD leaves a potential of -31.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -44.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 63/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 107.1%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 54.9%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.1x
  • FCF yield: 6.4%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 14.6%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.4x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.9%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.

Versus the vertical median

Air Transportation, Scheduled (SIC 4512) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
16.6x
vertical median 15.6x
above median (+6.5%)
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
vertical median 6.7x
above median (+19.6%)
P/S
0.8x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+26.6%)
P/B
2.4x
vertical median 1.8x
above median (+37.8%)
ROE
15.9%
vertical median 7.5%
above median (+112.2%)
Net margin
4.6%
vertical median 2.1%
above median (+116.3%)
EBIT margin
7.4%
vertical median 7.5%
at median
Revenue YoY
2.8%
vertical median 3.8%
below median (−25.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.1x
vertical median 1.9x
below median (−44.2%)
Dividend yield
0.9%
vertical median 0.2%
above median (+403.6%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.27,436.0 bn19,289.5141.1%10.2%+11.2%−1% / unavailable
RYAAYRyanair Holdings plc61.6 bn40.6——+3.8%−13% / +25%
DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.54.8 bn16.615.9%4.6%+2.8%+42% / +150%
UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.34.8 bn9.822.3%5.5%+3.5%+5% / +172%
LUVSouthwest Airlines Co21.3 bn21.413.9%3.3%+2.1%+25% / +70%
AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.9.0 bn——-0.8%+0.8%−3% / +10%
CPACopa Holdings, S.A.6.0 bn9.026.1%18.6%+5.0%+20% / +57%
ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.4.5 bn—-4.6%-1.2%+21.3%−7% / +6%
SKYWSkywest Inc3.1 bn8.015.1%9.7%+15.0%−19% / +74%
ALGTAllegiant Travel Co2.2 bn56.71.8%0.9%+3.7%+7% / +19%
ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.1.6 bn—-175.4%-8.9%−1.4%+55% / +81%
JBLUJetblue Airways Corp1.3 bn—-55.4%-10.0%−2.3%−22% / −19%
RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc.958.4 m9.67.5%4.6%+13.7%+2% / +90%
FJETStarfighters Space, Inc.46.8 m—-94.2%—unavailableunavailable / unavailable
AZULAzul SA———0.6%+10.8%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for DAL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
50.81
Total return -38% · Per year -38%
89.69
Total return 9% · Per year 9%
134.91
Total return 63% · Per year 63%
3 years
52.64
Total return -35% · Per year -13%
104.22
Total return 28% · Per year 9%
171.65
Total return 110% · Per year 28%
5 years
54.53
Total return -31% · Per year -7%
121.12
Total return 51% · Per year 9%
218.40
Total return 169% · Per year 22%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 26.06
  • Net margin± 18.24
  • Annual revenue growth± 14.51
  • Annual dilution± 1.53

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Delta Air Lines is a global airline based in the United States that builds its advantage on people, operational reliability, a global network and the SkyMiles loyalty program. With operating revenue of 63.4 billion USD in 2025 1 and strong demand for premium products, the company remains in focus in a high fuel cost environment 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Delta has a strong reputation for reliability and service, and its global network with well-positioned hubs gives it cost and local market share advantages 1.
  • The loyalty program and co-brand cards create high-margin revenue less tied to the flight cycle 13.
  • The company holds an investment grade rating and a solid ability to generate free cash flow 13.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on fuel makes results highly sensitive to volatile oil prices and fuel availability 1.
  • The main cabin segment showed weakness in 2025 due to excess supply and an uncertain economy 1.
  • The company relies on regional and international partners it does not control directly, creating operational risks 1.

Opportunities

  • Growth in premium travel, cargo and MRO businesses could diversify revenue 12.
  • New international routes and partnerships with carriers in Asia and Latin America could open new markets 2.
  • Investments in AI and digital platforms could improve operational efficiency and customer experience 1.

Threats

  • A fuel price shock or supply disruption could seriously affect results 13.
  • A serious accident, a cyberattack or a technology outage like the 2024 one could cause losses and damage reputation 1.
  • Regulatory changes or the loss of antitrust immunity for partnerships could reduce the value of the network 1.

Risks

  • Fuel priceshigh

    Fuel is a major part of operating costs, and rapid increases cannot always be passed on through fares 1.

  • Cybersecurityhigh

    The company's systems face constantly evolving threats, including those enabled by AI, and a breach could bring costs and reputational damage 1.

  • Aviation safetymedium

    An accident involving Delta or partner aircraft could bring financial losses and reduce public trust 1.

  • International partnershipsmedium

    Returns on investments and partnerships outside the US are not assured and could be affected by regulatory decisions 1.

  • Reliance on third partieslow

    Airport operations, technology providers and regional partners could cause disruptions that affect revenue 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If premium and corporate demand stay strong, Delta could keep growing unit revenue, as the September 2026 quarter results suggest 23.
  • The loyalty program and co-brand cards could support cash flow that is more predictable than flight revenue 13.
  • If debt reduction targets are met, the balance sheet could become stronger and give strategic flexibility 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If fuel prices stay high, costs could outpace revenue growth and compress margins 3.
  • The main cabin segment could remain under pressure if industry supply keeps exceeding demand 1.
  • Dependence on partners and regulation, including the Aeroméxico dispute, could limit the value of the network 1.

What to watch

  • Evolution of fuel prices and their impact on costsQ4 2026
  • Revenue and operating margin guidance for the next quarterQ4 2026
  • Outcome of the antitrust immunity case for Aeroméxico2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Delta operates a global network with core hubs in Atlanta, Detroit, Minneapolis-St. Paul and Salt Lake City, complemented by coastal hubs in Boston, Los Angeles, New York and Seattle 1. It also works through joint ventures with Air France-KLM, Virgin Atlantic, Aeroméxico, LATAM and Korean Air 1. Beyond passenger transport, Delta has complementary businesses in cargo, MRO through Delta TechOps, vacations through Delta Vacations and a refinery 1.

Delta refines its model through investments in technology, including AI tools for bags, gates and maintenance, and by expanding its premium cabin 1. The long-term strategy includes a net-zero greenhouse gas goal for airline operations by 2050 1.

Segments

Ancillary and loyalty revenue

Loyalty, cargo and MRO revenue are growing quickly and make up a larger share of total revenue 23. Growth in co-brand card spending with American Express supports this category 2.

Refinery and other activities

The Monroe refinery sells non-jet fuel products to third parties and adds growing revenue, but also brings specific costs and operational risks 12.

Market context

Demand for air travel, especially for premium products and from corporate customers, remained robust in 2026 according to the company 3. The market is however sensitive to fuel prices, which rose sharply in the second half of 2026 2.

The industry is marked by high capacity and strong competition in main cabin, which pressured revenue in 2025 1. International partnerships and alliances play an important role in market access 1.

Trends

  • Demand for premium productstailwind

    Demand for premium cabins and corporate travel stayed strong, which could support unit revenue 13.

  • Fuel pricesheadwind

    Fuel costs rose significantly in 2026, and the company expects a substantial increase in fuel costs that could compress margins if prices stay high 3.

  • Loyalty programtailwind

    Expansion of SkyMiles partnerships and co-brand card revenue continues to grow, providing a steadier revenue stream 23.

  • International partner relationshipsmixed

    The antitrust immunity for the Aeroméxico agreement was challenged by US authorities, and the outcome could influence the network in the region 1.

Competitive position

Delta competes with other US network carriers and low-cost airlines on domestic and international routes. The sources do not detail the exact position of competitors in these markets but mention alliances such as SkyTeam 1.

Delta's competitive edge rests on operational reliability, premium offerings and loyalty, and the company says it leads on-time performance rankings 13.

  • United AirlinesUAL

    US network carrier competing with Delta on domestic and international routes.

  • American AirlinesAAL

    US network carrier with direct competition in major US markets.

  • Southwest AirlinesLUV

    Low-cost carrier active in the domestic market, competing with Delta in the main cabin segment.

  • SkyTeam and its partners

    The alliance Delta belongs to, including carriers in Europe and Asia, which competes with other global alliances.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Delta Air Lines, Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Delta Air Lines, Inc. · 09 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Delta Air Lines, Inc. · 09 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.