olivLaw · US equity research
Dauch Corporation DCH
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories · SIC 3714 · Vertical: Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714)
Dauch Corporation (formerly American Axle & Manufacturing) is a major supplier of driveline and metal forming components to the global auto industry, and its acquisition of Dowlais Group has changed its scale. In the second quarter of 2026 net sales reached 2955.6 million USD, and full-year guidance sits between 10.6 and 10.8 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Dauch Corporation (DCH) stock was 4.79 USD (+5.74% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.1 bn USD, beta 1.72, 52-week range 4.53–9.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 3.0 bn USD (+92.4% YoY), net income of 1.0 m USD (−97.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.00 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.1
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.27 – 5.65
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.38 · band width 27.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.60 / 6.11
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.26 / -0.27
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −15.2% | −1.1% | −14.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −20.2% | −0.5% | −19.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −17.4% | +4.4% | −21.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −25.3% | +12.3% | −37.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −23.6% | +13.5% | −37.1 pp | −10.2% |
| 3 years | −33.8% | +76.4% | −110.3 pp | +9.8% |
| 5 years | −51.2% | +63.7% | −114.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.6 bn |
| Gross profit | 171.3 m | 154.3 m | 173.9 m | 200.7 m | 189.0 m | 140.9 m | 225.4 m | 338.2 m |
| SG&A | 94.6 m | 89.0 m | 90.9 m | 100.8 m | 98.8 m | 98.5 m | 137.3 m | 166.9 m |
| Operating income | 41.7 m | 36.2 m | 42.7 m | 55.0 m | 48.4 m | -33.8 m | -33.7 m | 99.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 116.9 m | 115.4 m | 112.2 m | 113.5 m | 116.3 m | 117.5 m | 181.8 m | 215.4 m |
| Interest expense | 45.2 m | 43.9 m | 42.9 m | 43.1 m | 42.7 m | 72.4 m | 89.6 m | 89.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | -2.1 m | -6.9 m | 21.1 m | 67.4 m | -1.7 m | -85.3 m | -119.6 m | 17.6 m |
| Income tax | -12.1 m | 6.8 m | 14.0 m | 28.1 m | -10.9 m | -10.0 m | -19.6 m | 16.1 m |
| Net income | 10.0 m | -13.7 m | 7.1 m | 39.3 m | 9.2 m | -75.3 m | -100.3 m | 1.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.08 | -0.12 ≈ | 0.06 | 0.32 | 0.07 | -0.64 ≈ | -0.52 | 0.00 |
| Operating cash flow | 143.6 m ≈ | 151.2 m | 55.9 m | 91.9 m ≈ | 143.3 m ≈ | 120.5 m | -64.4 m | 107.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 73.2 m ≈ | 78.0 m | 69.3 m | 57.3 m ≈ | 64.1 m ≈ | 65.8 m | 103.6 m | 98.3 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 | 2.7 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 100.0 k | 6.2 m | 2.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.3 bn | 6.5 bn | 4.7 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.8 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +16.0% | −10.2% | −27.9% | +9.5% | +12.5% | +4.8% | +0.7% | −4.7% |
| Net income | -57.5 m | -484.5 m | -561.3 m | 5.9 m | 64.3 m | -33.6 m | 35.0 m | -19.7 m |
| Net income YoY | −117.1% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +989.8% | −152.3% | unavailable | −156.3% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.51 | -4.31 | -4.96 | 0.05 | 0.53 | -0.29 | 0.29 | -0.17 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −115.9% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +960.0% | −154.7% | unavailable | −158.6% |
| net % | -0.8% | -7.4% | -11.9% | 0.1% | 1.1% | -0.6% | 0.6% | -0.3% |
| Free cash flow | 246.8 m | 126.3 m | 239.1 m | 357.2 m | 277.5 m | 201.5 m | 207.4 m | 155.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 708.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- 4.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 3.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 640.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 6.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 6.40x
- Current ratio
- 2.95x
- ROE
- -3.3%
- ROA
- -0.3%
- FCF margin
- 2.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 582.7 m | 722.7 m | 704.9 m | 624.3 m | 741.4 m | 704.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 117.4 m | 116.8 m | 144.0 m | 155.4 m | 159.0 m | 147.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 313.9 m | 344.2 m | 345.1 m | 366.9 m | 387.1 m | 389.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -396.0 m | 240.6 m | 243.9 m | 146.6 m | 241.4 m | 112.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 521.9 m | 544.3 m | 492.1 m | 487.2 m | 469.7 m | 459.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 125.9 m ≈ | 784.9 m ≈ | 736.0 m ≈ | 633.8 m ≈ | 711.1 m ≈ | 571.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 212.3 m | 195.2 m | 174.5 m | 201.7 m | 186.0 m | 201.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -610.3 m | 1.2 m | 66.3 m | -24.5 m | 62.8 m | 1.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -49.2 m | -4.7 m | 2.0 m | 9.1 m | 27.8 m | 21.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -561.3 m | 5.9 m | 64.3 m | -33.6 m | 35.0 m | -19.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -4.96 | 0.05 | 0.53 | -0.29 | 0.29 | -0.17 | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 113.1 m | 114.1 m | 115.5 m | 116.6 m | 117.7 m | 118.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 557.0 m | 530.2 m | 511.5 m | 519.9 m | 552.9 m | 708.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 323.2 m | 410.4 m | 463.9 m | 482.9 m | 442.5 m | 466.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 185.7 m | 183.8 m | 181.6 m | 182.1 m | 172.0 m | 174.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 780.7 m | 697.2 m | 616.2 m | 532.8 m | 456.7 m | 375.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.9 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.1 bn | 6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 578.9 m | 612.8 m | 734.0 m | 773.9 m | 700.5 m | 718.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 13.7 m | 18.8 m | 75.9 m | 17.0 m | 47.9 m | 10.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.5 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 979.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.5 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.5 bn | 6.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 373.2 m | 457.8 m | 627.3 m † | 604.9 m † | 562.8 m † | 640.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 08 May 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 454.7 m | 538.4 m | 448.9 m | 396.1 m | 455.4 m | 411.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 215.6 m | 181.2 m | 171.4 m | 194.6 m | 248.0 m | 256.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 239.1 m ≈ | 357.2 m ≈ | 277.5 m ≈ | 201.5 m ≈ | 207.4 m ≈ | 155.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -218.4 m | -161.1 m | -243.0 m | -184.5 m | -254.8 m | -169.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -214.5 m | -401.4 m | -217.2 m | -205.5 m | -156.2 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.7 m | 4.3 m | 1.9 m | 14.7 m | 2.8 m | 2.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 13 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 15 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation22
- Returns10
- Quality23
- Balance sheet10
- Growth2
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.22 – 31.26 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)1.37 – 31.26 (Mid 9.57)WACC 5.8% · starting FCFF 222.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 85%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -7.5%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA0.22 – 13.27 (Mid 4.56)15 companies used · median multiple 7.5x · quartiles 6.0x – 10.4xALV, APTV, ATMU, BWA, CAAS, CPS, DORM, GNTX, LCII, LEA, MOD, PATK, PHIN, SMP, THRM
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 15/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 1.6% | 19 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Net margin · Quality | -2.0% | 29 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 0.2% | 2 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 6.0x | 0 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 50 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 7.6x | 40 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -2.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.7% | 10 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet10/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial2/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality23/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial10/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
DAUCH CORPORATION (DCH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -4.7%; net margin -2.0%; ROE -15.2%; net debt/EBITDA 6.0x.
The estimated value range is 0.80–22.26 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.06 USD, the price of 4.79 USD leaves a potential of 47.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 32.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 15/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 1.6%
- Net margin: -2.0%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 6.0x
- Interest coverage: 0.3x
- FCF yield: -2.2%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.7%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories (SIC 3714) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 34 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MGAMagna International Inc. | 18.4 bn | 22.4 | 6.9% | 2.0% | −1.9% | +34% / +22% |
| BWABorgwarner Inc. | 10.1 bn | 21.5 | 8.2% | 3.4% | +1.6% | +17% / +50% |
| ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 9.9 bn | 17.4 | 29.7% | 11.1% | −6.7% | +36% / +125% |
| ALVAutoliv, Inc. | 9.0 bn | 15.1 | 24.8% | 5.6% | +4.1% | +7% / +21% |
| APTVAptiv PLC | 8.8 bn | 11.9 | 8.5% | 4.6% | +3.5% | −44% / −48% |
| LEALear Corp | 5.7 bn | 10.4 | 11.6% | 2.5% | −0.2% | +11% / −11% |
| MODModine Manufacturing Co | 5.2 bn | 41.3 | 11.4% | 3.6% | +23.1% | −39% / +100% |
| GNTXGentex Corporation | 4.4 bn | 11.0 | 16.4% | 15.5% | +9.6% | −9% / −32% |
| DORMDorman Products, Inc. | 4.2 bn | 21.2 | 13.3% | 9.3% | +6.0% | +8% / +98% |
| ATMUAtmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 3.9 bn | 18.3 | 55.8% | 11.3% | +5.7% | −5% / +119% |
| GTXGarrett Motion Inc. | 3.6 bn | 10.1 | — | 10.0% | +3.1% | +20% / +167% |
| PATKPatrick Industries Inc | 2.7 bn | 20.1 | 13.0% | 3.7% | +6.3% | −22% / +55% |
| PHINPhinia Inc. | 2.6 bn | 14.5 | 12.2% | 5.2% | +2.4% | +33% / +181% |
| DANDana Incorporated | 2.6 bn | 2.4 | 71.4% | 14.6% | −3.0% | +6% / +80% |
| LCIILci Industries | 2.5 bn | 12.1 | 15.0% | 5.2% | +10.2% | −8% / −4% |
| VCVisteon Corp | 2.0 bn | 13.8 | 10.8% | 4.1% | −2.5% | −22% / −32% |
| THRMGentherm Incorporated | 1.6 bn | 105.3 | 1.3% | 0.6% | +2.9% | −13% / −32% |
| ADNTAdient plc | 1.3 bn | 28.5 | 2.7% | 0.3% | −1.0% | −12% / −47% |
| DCHDauch Corporation | 1.1 bn | — | -15.2% | -2.0% | −4.7% | −24% / −34% |
| SMPStandard Motor Products, Inc. | 1.0 bn | 15.1 | 9.9% | 3.8% | +22.4% | +22% / +28% |
| AEVAAeva Technologies, Inc. | 661.5 m | — | — | -150.1% | +99.4% | −15% / +240% |
| CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc. | 391.6 m | — | — | -2.0% | +0.4% | −29% / +24% |
| HLLYHolley Inc. | 351.6 m | 35.3 | 2.3% | 1.7% | +1.9% | −32% / −30% |
| KNDIKandi Technologies Group, Inc. | 287.8 m | — | -30.5% | -107.4% | −31.5% | −63% / −88% |
| STRTStrattec Security Corp | 258.5 m | 15.6 | 7.2% | 2.9% | +2.5% | −14% / +201% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for DCH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Dauch Corporation (formerly American Axle & Manufacturing) is a major supplier of driveline and metal forming components to the global auto industry, and its acquisition of Dowlais Group has changed its scale. In the second quarter of 2026 net sales reached 2955.6 million USD 2, and full-year guidance sits between 10.6 and 10.8 billion USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Strong position in driveline components for trucks and SUVs, with long relationships with major automakers and a global manufacturing base 1.
- Vertical integration, in which Metal Forming supports Driveline and reduces supply risk 1.
- Greater scale after the Dowlais acquisition, with synergy benefits guided to exceed a run rate above 100 million USD by the end of year one 3.
Weaknesses
- High dependence on a few large customers, particularly General Motors, whose share was high in earlier years 1.
- Gross margin declined in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the prior year, showing cost and integration pressure 2.
- High operational concentration in Mexico, where a large share of net sales and cash flow comes from one complex 1.
Opportunities
- Hybrid and electric vehicle programs could add business if adoption grows, and the company has already won new EV contracts 1.
- Diversification across customers and regions, including Europe and Asia, could reduce reliance on a single customer 1.
- Dowlais synergies and a broader product range could improve profitability if fully realised 3.
Threats
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A reduction in volumes from the largest customers could materially affect results, given the large share of sales from General Motors and Ford 1.
- Tariffs and USMCAhigh
Uncertainty over tariffs and the review of the North American trade agreement could change costs and volumes, and recoveries from customers are not yet agreed for all contracts 2.
- Dowlais integrationmedium
Integrating a large acquisition and delivering the forecast synergies could take longer or cost more than planned, affecting margins 3.
- Labour disputesmedium
Negotiations with unions, including a work stoppage in June 2026, can generate extra costs and production interruptions 2.
- Supply chain and cyber securitymedium
Reliance on limited suppliers, logistics disruption and cyber attacks could disrupt production and expose data 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Dowlais synergies materialise and cash flow reaches the guided range, the company could convert its added scale into better profitability 3.
- Its position on truck and SUV programs, combined with new hybrid and electric contracts, could support steady revenue over the medium term 1.
- Geographic and customer diversification, including access to China through Dowlais, could reduce dependence on North America 1.
What would break the thesis
- If tariffs and USMCA uncertainty persist, costs could stay high and margins could remain under pressure, as the second-quarter gross margin decline suggests 2.
- Dependence on General Motors and Ford could leave revenue exposed to a change in those customers' production strategy 1.
- Slow electric vehicle adoption could delay new programs and leave the company with unrecovered investment, as the cancelled e-Beam order showed 12.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and updated guidance for sales and Adjusted EBITDAQ3 2026
- Progress on Dowlais synergies and restructuring cash payments2026
- Final tariff impact and the outcome of the USMCA review2026
- Share of GM, Ford and Stellantis in consolidated salesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Dauch Corporation is a premier driveline and metal forming supplier with a powertrain-agnostic product portfolio that supports electric, hybrid and internal combustion vehicles, headquartered in Detroit with operations in 24 countries and more than 175 locations 1. The company changed its name in January 2026 and completed the acquisition of Dowlais Group plc on February 3, 2026, which brought the GKN Automotive and GKN Powder Metallurgy businesses 1. Its core is light trucks, SUVs and crossovers built for North American platforms.
Its main customers are General Motors, Ford and Stellantis; sales to GM were 44% of consolidated net sales in 2025 1. In the first six months of 2026 GM's share fell to 30% of consolidated sales after the Dowlais consolidation 2. The stated strategy is to secure the internal combustion business while growing hybrid and electric offerings and diversifying customers, products and regions 1.
The company describes vertical integration, with Metal Forming supplying Driveline, and has committed to net-zero carbon emissions by 2040 1. It employed approximately 18000 associates at the end of 2025, and about 76% of its hourly workforce was covered by collective bargaining agreements 1.
Segments
Driveline
The Driveline segment makes axles and driveline systems and, through Dowlais, sideshafts, including e-Beam axles for electric and hybrid vehicles 1. It is the segment most closely tied to GM, Ford and Stellantis programs.
Metal Forming
The Metal Forming segment is described as the largest automotive forging operation in the world and supplies engine, transmission and safety-critical components both to external customers and to Driveline 1.
Market context
The company's source expects North American light vehicle production of about 15.1 million units in 2026, a decline from 2025, and global production of about 91.1 million units 3. Dauch's guidance assumes no change to USMCA and mitigation of most incremental tariff costs, and these remain sources of uncertainty 3.
Demand for light trucks, SUVs and crossovers has grown in North America while electric vehicle adoption has been slower than expected, prompting OEMs to extend internal combustion and hybrid programs 1.
Trends
- Slow electric vehicle adoptionmixed
EV adoption has trailed expectations, so volume estimates and launch timing are uncertain, and at least one customer cancelled e-Beam axle purchase orders in 2024 12. The company could keep relying on combustion programs if the transition is delayed.
- Demand for trucks and SUVstailwind
Ongoing demand for light trucks, SUVs and crossovers in North America supports the core business, since a large part of its programs sit in these segments 1.
- Tariffs and trade uncertaintyheadwind
US tariffs on assembled vehicles and parts, retaliatory measures abroad and the 2026 USMCA review raise costs and uncertainty; the estimated 2026 earnings impact is 10 to 20 million USD after mitigation 2.
- Industry consolidation and Chinamixed
Consolidation and the expansion of Chinese OEMs abroad have increased competition on cost and innovation, while Dowlais gives the company a more diversified footprint, including in China 1. The net effect is mixed.
Competitive position
Dauch competes with independent suppliers and distributors as well as with in-house operations of vertically integrated OEMs 1. On technology, design, quality, delivery and cost, competition has increased with new entrants in electrification and technology, and some traditional players are forming partnerships with technology companies 1.
The sources analysed do not name direct competitors, so the list below reflects only the competitor categories explicitly described in the annual report 1.
- Independent driveline and component suppliers
Suppliers in the same driveline and component categories, described generically in the report without names.
- In-house operations of vertically integrated OEMs
Automakers that make similar components internally, an alternative to external sourcing.
- New entrants in electrification and technology
Non-traditional automotive and technology companies active in electric vehicles and electronics.
- Chinese vehicle manufacturers
Chinese OEMs expanding abroad that add cost pressure on suppliers.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report30 Oct 2026Results of operations
- Current report13 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report07 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Jun 2026Other events
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report08 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)04 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report01 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report17 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Dauch Corporation · 13 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Dauch Corporation · 07 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Dauch Corporation · 07 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.