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olivLaw · US equity research

Evolent Health, Inc. EVH

Services-Management Services · SIC 8741 · Vertical: Engineering, research and management services (SIC 874x)

4.80USD+11.63% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Evolent Health is a U.S. company that manages specialty care for patients with complex conditions such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and musculoskeletal disorders for health plans and other payers. In 2026 the company raised its revenue guidance to a range of 2.6 to 2.7 billion USD, and this matters because rising medical costs and Medicaid membership losses are testing its performance-based contract model.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH) stock was 4.80 USD (+11.63% on the day), with market capitalisation 542.7 m USD, beta 0.71, 52-week range 2.17–6.35 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 652.5 m USD (+46.9% YoY), net income of -28.4 m USD, diluted EPS -0.25 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
542.7 m USD
shares as of 01 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -4.57 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-95.21%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.71
Volatility (1y) 81%
52-week range
2.176.35

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
60.0
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
3.96 – 5.07
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.76 · band width 24.5%
SMA 50 / 200
4.19 / 3.88
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.10 / 0.12
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+33.0%−1.1%+34.1 pp—
3 months+55.8%−0.5%+56.3 pp—
6 months+25.3%+4.4%+20.9 pp—
Year to date+20.0%+12.3%+7.7 pp—
1 year−26.0%+13.5%−39.6 pp−20.9%
3 years−82.4%+76.4%−158.8 pp−28.0%
5 years−83.8%+63.7%−147.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−65.8%
05 Nov 2025 → 30 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−94.5%
12 Sept 2022 → 30 Mar 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−30.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
652.5 m USD
+46.9% YoY
Net income
-28.4 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.25
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-4.3% / -1.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue621.4 m646.5 m483.6 m444.3 m479.5 m468.7 m496.2 m652.5 m
Cost of revenue540.7 m570.8 m381.2 m343.9 m379.8 m371.5 m412.5 m571.7 m
SG&A67.1 m47.7 m78.4 m75.2 m77.6 m72.7 m72.8 m68.8 m
Operating income-16.3 m-18.6 m-1.6 m-1.2 m886.0 k-408.2 m-10.6 m-9.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation29.7 m29.3 m24.1 m23.1 m23.6 m45.0 m21.6 m21.6 m
Interest expense6.0 m6.7 m10.4 m11.6 m16.5 m19.0 m16.9 m16.9 m
Pre-tax income-23.8 m-23.9 m-63.1 m-20.7 m-20.0 m-430.8 m-25.7 m-25.6 m
Income tax-619.0 k-1.1 m1.5 m-825.0 k906.0 k-1.7 m910.0 k2.7 m
Net income-23.1 m-22.8 m-64.6 m-19.9 m-20.9 m-429.1 m-26.6 m-28.4 m
Diluted EPS-0.27-0.27-0.63-0.44-0.24-3.84-0.24-0.25
Operating cash flow18.7 m ≈-26.2 m4.6 m-30.3 m ≈15.8 m ≈48.8 m-984.0 k-9.3 m ≈
Share repurchases—0———0——

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue627.1 m687.1 m924.6 m908.0 m1.4 bn2.0 bn2.6 bn1.9 bn
Revenue YoY+44.2%+9.6%+34.6%−1.8%+48.9%+45.3%+30.1%−26.6%
Net income-52.7 m-302.0 m-334.2 m-37.6 m-19.2 m-113.0 m-61.6 m-534.5 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailable-3.67-3.94-0.44-0.20-1.28-0.81-5.07
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-8.4%-43.9%-36.1%-4.1%-1.4%-5.8%-2.4%-28.5%
Free cash flow-60.2 m-78.2 munavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
151.9 m USD
Financial debt
970.5 m USD
Net debt
818.7 m USD
Equity
415.2 m USD
Total assets
1.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
2.34x
Current ratio
1.31x
ROE
-75.5%
ROA
-24.1%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.5 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
460.5 m ≈
2024
367.4 m ≈
2025
399.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Research & development
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2022verified

SG&A
2023
358.1 m
2024
263.1 m
2025
303.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-71.2 m
2024
-40.5 m
2025
-410.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
123.4 m
2024
118.4 m
2025
115.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
52.2 m ≈
2024
77.9 m ≈
2025
-294.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
54.2 m
2024
24.7 m
2025
57.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-202.4 m
2024
-63.0 m
2025
-534.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-89.4 m
2024
-1.4 m
2025
-126.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-113.0 m
2024
-61.6 m
2025
-534.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-1.28
2024
-0.81
2025
-5.07

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
111.3 m
2024
114.7 m
2025
114.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
192.8 m
2024
104.2 m
2025
151.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
446.7 m
2024
414.7 m
2025
309.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
683.7 m
2024
607.1 m
2025
506.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
78.2 m
2024
73.2 m
2025
80.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
694.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
752.0 m
2024
680.2 m
2025
584.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.7 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
48.2 m
2024
96.0 m
2025
59.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
0
2024
171.5 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
597.0 m
2024
490.5 m
2025
970.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
674.2 m
2024
715.5 m
2025
385.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.1 bn †
2024
1.0 bn †
2025
415.2 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
142.6 m
2024
18.8 m
2025
38.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Investing cash flow
2023
-415.5 m
2024
-62.9 m
2025
-233.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
281.3 m
2024
-565.0 k
2025
-35.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
40.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-26.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
11.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
15.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
17.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-15.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-20.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-24.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
-79.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-22.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-25.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-28.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
850.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-6.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
54.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
70 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
11 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
542.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-95.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
7.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

4.80 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 542.7 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
542.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-79.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-24.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-26.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 01 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 1757derived 126

Score by group

42% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Engineering, research and management services (SIC 874x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-25.7%29 (vs peers)25%
Net margin · Quality-24.1%26 (vs peers)15%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth11.5%96 (on a fixed band)20%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-6.2x0 (on a fixed band)15%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x37 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns7.4%100 (on a fixed band)15%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial96/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality27/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Evolent Health, Inc. (EVH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -26.6%; net margin -24.1%; ROE -79.0%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.5%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.4%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -25.7%
  • Net margin: -24.1%
  • Interest coverage: -6.2x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Engineering, research and management services (SIC 874x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 24.7x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 15.2x
P/S
0.3x
vertical median 1.9x
below median (−86.3%)
P/B
1.4x
vertical median 2.9x
below median (−51.2%)
ROE
-79.0%
vertical median 6.3%
below median (−1,353.7%)
Net margin
-24.1%
vertical median 2.0%
below median (−1,313.5%)
EBIT margin
-20.4%
vertical median 1.8%
below median (−1,207.9%)
Revenue YoY
-26.6%
vertical median 3.9%
below median (−774.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.9x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.6%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
RTORentokil Initial PLC61.1 bn130.48.7%6.8%+4.4%−13% / −12%
ITGartner, Inc.13.1 bn14.8365.8%14.8%+3.7%−11% / −52%
BAHBooz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation10.5 bn13.770.0%7.1%−6.4%+6% / −29%
GGenpact Limited6.9 bn12.122.4%11.1%+6.6%−7% / +20%
FCNFti Consulting, Inc5.4 bn24.715.2%5.9%+2.4%+22% / −10%
EXPOExponent, Inc.4.2 bn39.231.2%17.7%+4.2%+21% / +14%
HURNHuron Consulting Group Inc.2.7 bn25.825.5%6.1%+11.7%+5% / +66%
VVXV2X, Inc.2.4 bn24.78.8%2.0%+3.7%+41% / +83%
ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.2.2 bn48.35.1%1.1%+56.4%+72% / +19%
ICFIICF International, Inc.1.7 bn20.18.6%4.9%−7.3%+24% / −31%
BWMNBowman Consulting Group Ltd.744.2 m105.32.9%1.4%+14.9%+19% / +39%
ONTOnterris, Inc.566.4 m—-2.5%-1.4%+19.3%−37% / −48%
EVHEvolent Health, Inc.542.7 m—-79.0%-24.1%−26.6%−26% / −82%
PPHCPublic Policy Holding Company, Inc.381.3 m—-39.5%-18.9%+24.7%unavailable / unavailable
HCKTHackett Group, Inc.329.4 m19.020.7%6.3%−2.6%−28% / −40%
IIIInformation Services Group Inc.289.5 m25.212.7%4.7%−1.2%+13% / +46%
AERTAeries Technology, Inc.282.0 m20.9—3.6%−0.3%+35% / −68%
RMRRmr Group Inc.250.5 m12.68.7%3.1%−22.0%+10% / −30%
SUPXSuperx Ai Technology Limited209.8 m—-101.8%-527.7%+1,878.6%−84% / unavailable
TSSITss, Inc.193.3 m14.132.0%7.4%+65.9%−29% / +1,976%
VCIGVCI Global Limited141.3 m0.114.7%28.3%+40.6%−99% / −100%
GRNQGreenpro Capital Corp.122.4 m—-26.8%-169.6%−40.7%−57% / −19%
AUCAtif Holdings Limited109.4 m—-90.5%-723.7%−74.7%−12% / −70%
ROMARoma Green Finance Limited101.0 m—-44.2%-287.8%−22.2%+138% / unavailable
RTBRTB Digital, INC.92.6 m—-141.9%-198.5%−38.7%−49% / −94%

1- and 3-year price returns: for EVH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Evolent Health is a U.S. company that manages specialty care for patients with complex conditions such as cancer, cardiovascular disease and musculoskeletal disorders for health plans and other payers. In 2026 the company raised its revenue guidance to a range of 2.6 to 2.7 billion USD, and this matters because rising medical costs and Medicaid membership losses are testing its performance-based contract model 13.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has a proprietary technology platform integrated across several specialties that links clinical data to payment workflows.
    • The partnership-based model and standardized clinical pathways give clients an integrated offering that is hard to fragment.
    • Growth in oncology contracts and other scheduled launches support revenue expectations for the coming period.

    Weaknesses

    • Revenue is concentrated in a few large partners, and losing or renegotiating one contract could affect results.
    • The company has reported net losses and recorded a significant goodwill impairment, reflecting profitability difficulties.
    • The capital structure includes several debt instruments at high cost, and reducing debt remains a priority.

    Opportunities

    • If new oncology partnerships launch on schedule, they could expand revenue and improve margins.
    • High medical costs may push payers to outsource more specialty management.
    • Using AI-enabled tools could reduce operating costs over time.

    Threats

    • Falling membership in Medicaid and exchange markets could reduce contract revenue.
    • Public policy changes and cuts in government funding may alter contract terms.
    • Competition and price pressure from payers could limit margin expansion.

    Risks

    • Dependence on large partnershigh

      A small number of clients generate a large share of revenue, and losing a major contract could seriously affect results 1.

    • Performance contract riskhigh

      Assuming claims costs can produce losses if rates do not cover cost increases, and refund estimates may prove inaccurate 1.

    • Indebtedness and refinancing termsmedium

      Debt, including second lien loans and convertible notes obligations, could limit financial flexibility if not reduced 12.

    • Regulation and public policymedium

      Changes to Medicaid, Medicare and ACA exchange programs could reduce membership and alter contract conditions 1.

    • Goodwill impairmentlow

      Further declines in the company's value could trigger additional goodwill impairments with accounting effects on results 2.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the new oncology partnerships launch as planned, revenue could rise significantly in 2027, and margins could benefit from better performance contracts 3.
    • Demand for specialty management amid high medical costs may support growth even as health plans face pressure 13.
    • Better cash flow conversion and debt reduction could strengthen the company's financial position in the coming years 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • Declining membership in Medicaid and exchange markets could shrink the revenue base faster than expected 12.
    • Revenue concentration means that a renegotiation or loss of one contract could have a major effect on results 1.
    • If Performance Suite margins do not improve, profitability pressure could persist despite cost reduction goals 3.

    What to watch

    • Launch of the new Oncology Performance Suite partnershipQ4 2026
    • Trend in membership of ACA exchange and Medicaid populations2026
    • Delivery against 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidancenext 10-K
    • Debt reduction measures and delivery of the 2027 outlook2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Evolent builds its business around Specialty Care Management Services, its primary solution, which combines high-performance provider networks, evidence-based clinical pathways and proprietary technology, notably the CarePro platform and Identifi 1. The company operates one operating segment and one reportable segment, and revenue comes from fixed fees per member per month, sometimes with a risk-sharing component 1. Its customers are health plans and other payers, and revenue is concentrated in a few large partners such as Molina Healthcare 1.

    Segments

    Performance Suite

    Performance Suite covers contracts in which Evolent takes responsibility for medical claims costs for covered members, under performance-based arrangements with a narrowed risk corridor since 2024 1. This segment has been the main source of margin pressure, but also of the largest increase in revenue per member in the second quarter of 2026 3.

    Specialty Technology and Services Suite

    This suite provides services and technology for oncology, cardiology, musculoskeletal and advanced imaging management, paid through fixed member fees without assuming claims costs 1. It also includes case-based services such as surgery management and advanced care planning programs 1.

    Administrative Services

    Administrative services include health plan administration, risk management, analytics and management services for payers, based on recurring multi-year contracts 1. The economic model is primarily fee-based, with defined service-level agreements 1.

    Market context

    The addressed market is U.S. specialty care, a segment with rapidly rising costs, driven in part by the pace of development of new therapies 1. According to the company, demand remains robust given rising medical costs at health plans 3. Changes to Medicaid and ACA markets, including under the 2025 OBBBA law, could reduce the number of covered members and therefore the company's revenue base 12.

    Trends

    • Rising medical costsmixed

      Performance Suite claims costs grew faster than historical norms in 2024 and 2025, and the company believes the trend is industry-wide 1. If demand for specialty management solutions stays high, cost pressure could support the value of Evolent's offering 3.

    • Declining Medicaid and ACA exchange membershipheadwind

      Legislative changes created expectations of fewer and sicker members, and customers already reported membership declines in the second quarter of 2026 12. The company expects exchange attrition to continue through year end, though at a slower pace 2.

    • Performance-based and risk-sharing contractsmixed

      Performance contracts could lift revenue and profit if margins improve, as the company's 2027 outlook suggests 3. However, exposure to claims costs caps upside and can produce losses if rates do not adjust to cost increases 1.

    • Demand for oncology and integrated solutionstailwind

      Management says demand for its oncology solution is strong and that new partnerships, including a Performance Suite contract, could add significant revenue from December 2026 3. Payers' preference for fewer vendors and integrated services supports the company's position 1.

    Competitive position

    Evolent competes with other specialty care and cost management providers offering similar services to health plans, and competitive pressure could limit its market share 1. The company argues that integrating several specialties and its proprietary technology differentiate it from fragmented vendors 1.

    • Specialty care management providers

      Companies offering similar specialty management services to payers; the sources do not name direct competitors.

    • Health plan administrative service providers

      Firms offering administration, risk management and analytics to health plans, competing with the company's administrative services.

    • Pharmacy benefit management providers

      Players managing the drug component of health plans, which Evolent describes as different from traditional PBMs.

    • Health plans managing specialty care in-house

      Plans that run specialty care management themselves are an alternative to outsourcing.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Evolent Health, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Evolent Health, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Evolent Health, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.