olivLaw · US equity research
Flowers Foods, Inc. FLO
Food and Kindred Products · SIC 2000 · Vertical: Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000)
Flowers Foods is the second-largest producer of packaged bakery foods in the United States, with net sales of about 5.3 billion USD in fiscal 2025. The company is going through a difficult period, as the packaged fresh bread category weakens and management has lowered its 2026 outlook.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO) stock was 7.10 USD (+5.65% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.5 bn USD, P/E 17.7 on diluted EPS of 0.40 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 12.22%, beta 0.21, 52-week range 5.55–12.10 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (−4.0% YoY), net income of 40.7 m USD (−30.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.19 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 71.4
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.55 – 6.84
- above the upper band · %B 1.20 · band width 20.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.15 / 7.95
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.17 / 0.05
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +26.8% | −1.1% | +27.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.9% | −0.5% | −3.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −17.6% | +4.4% | −22.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −34.7% | +12.3% | −47.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −41.0% | +13.5% | −54.5 pp | −45.6% |
| 3 years | −68.1% | +76.4% | −144.5 pp | −72.2% |
| 5 years | −71.9% | +63.7% | −135.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 18 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '23 | Q2 '24 | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 587.7 m | 613.4 m | 598.2 m | 568.5 m | 636.1 m | 638.7 m | 634.5 m | 615.0 m |
| SG&A | 447.9 m | 471.4 m | 460.4 m | 444.0 m | 473.5 m | 476.0 m | 492.4 m | 473.2 m |
| Operating income | 49.9 m | 95.2 m | 90.2 m | 61.4 m | 93.4 m | 66.5 m | -71.1 m | 68.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 37.0 m | 36.8 m | 37.3 m | 36.8 m | 39.8 m | 39.9 m | 38.5 m | 38.6 m |
| Interest expense | 8.2 m | 9.0 m | 8.7 m | 8.2 m | 18.9 m | 18.2 m | 19.9 m | 17.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 46.1 m | 90.4 m | 85.5 m | 56.9 m | 78.5 m | 52.2 m | -86.7 m | 54.3 m |
| Income tax | 10.4 m | 23.5 m | 20.5 m | 13.8 m | 20.1 m | 12.6 m | -19.7 m | 13.6 m |
| Net income | 35.7 m | 67.0 m | 65.0 m | 43.1 m | 58.4 m | 39.5 m | -67.1 m | 40.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.17 ≈ | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.20 ≈ | 0.28 | 0.19 | -0.32 ≈ | 0.19 |
| Operating cash flow | 92.0 m | — | 113.9 m ≈ | 130.3 m | — | 54.4 m ≈ | 125.4 m | — |
| Capex | 32.1 m | — | 25.4 m ≈ | 45.5 m | — | 23.9 m ≈ | 46.8 m | — |
| Dividends paid | 48.5 m | — | 50.5 m ≈ | 50.5 m | — | 52.3 m ≈ | 52.3 m | — |
| Share repurchases | 14.9 m | — | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | 0 ≈ | 0 | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 11 percentile of its own 9-quarter history (min 17.5, median 27.0, max 38.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.9 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −0.2% | +0.8% | +4.4% | unavailable | +9.5% | +5.9% | +0.2% | unavailable |
| Net income | 150.1 m | 157.2 m | 164.5 m | 152.3 m | 228.4 m | 123.4 m | 248.1 m | 83.8 m |
| Net income YoY | −8.3% | +4.7% | +4.7% | unavailable | +49.9% | −46.0% | +101.0% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 1.07 | 0.58 | 1.17 | 0.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −9.0% | +4.2% | +5.4% | unavailable | +48.6% | −45.8% | +101.7% | unavailable |
| net % | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 1.6% |
| Free cash flow | 222.2 m | 196.5 m | 263.3 m | 356.5 m | 191.8 m | 220.3 m | 280.6 m | 319.1 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 12.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.7 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 4.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.35x
- Current ratio
- 0.75x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 2.0%
- FCF margin
- 6.1%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.1 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.0 bn ≈ | 2.2 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 4.3 m | 4.0 m | 6.1 m | 5.9 m | 5.1 m | 9.3 k | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 225.4 m | 321.5 m | 303.2 m | 172.9 m | 348.3 m | 174.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 144.2 m | 141.4 m | 142.0 m | 151.7 m | 159.2 m | 167.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 369.7 m ≈ | 462.9 m ≈ | 445.2 m ≈ | 324.6 m ≈ | 507.5 m ≈ | 341.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 38.8 m | 38.8 m | 28.9 m | 36.6 m | 37.1 m | 76.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 212.1 m | 200.7 m | 298.7 m | 157.1 m | 328.9 m | 115.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 47.5 m | 48.4 m | 70.3 m | 33.7 m | 80.8 m | 31.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 164.5 m | 152.3 m | 228.4 m | 123.4 m | 248.1 m | 83.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.78 | 0.72 | 1.07 | 0.58 | 1.17 | 0.40 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 212.0 m | 212.3 m | 213.2 m | 213.4 m | 212.1 m | 212.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.75 | 0.79 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 0.95 | 0.98 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 11.0 m | 307.5 m | 165.1 m | 22.5 m | 5.0 m | 12.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 127.1 m | 125.2 m | 168.7 m | 184.5 m | 171.9 m | 201.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 553.9 m | 838.2 m | 804.9 m | 687.7 m | 656.4 m | 729.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 717.8 m | 699.4 m | 849.3 m | 963.0 m | 964.3 m | 952.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 545.2 m | 545.2 m | 545.2 m | 677.8 m | 679.9 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 750.2 m | 714.9 m | 664.4 m | 657.7 m | 314.0 k | 137.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 233.0 m | 225.9 m | 343.4 m | 318.6 m | 260.7 m | 312.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 3.7 m | — | — | — | — | 399.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 862.8 m | 960.1 m | 891.8 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 528.1 m | 504.1 m | 564.4 m | 659.2 m | 548.6 m | 976.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.3 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 367.0 m | 454.5 m | 360.9 m | 349.4 m | 412.7 m | 446.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 103.7 m | 97.9 m | 169.1 m | 129.1 m | 132.1 m | 127.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 263.3 m ≈ | 356.5 m ≈ | 191.8 m ≈ | 220.3 m ≈ | 280.6 m ≈ | 319.1 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -97.1 m | -74.0 m | -151.1 m | -403.8 m | -172.7 m | -943.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -284.1 m | -84.0 m | -222.2 m | -88.1 m | -257.5 m | 504.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 160.0 m | 167.3 m | 186.5 m | 195.2 m | 203.0 m | 209.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 7.1 m | 783.0 k | 34.6 m | 45.8 m | 22.7 m | 5.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 47 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.5 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation59
- Returns94
- Quality84
- Balance sheet1
- Growth4
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 2.04 – 56.61 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)23.14 – 56.61 (Mid 33.74)WACC 6.6% · starting FCFF 361.9 m USD · terminal value share of EV 82%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA2.04 – 12.64 (Mid 6.70)4 companies used · median multiple 9.8x · quartiles 6.6x – 13.8xBGS, BRBR, CPB, MDLZ
- Peers: P/E3.93 – 6.53 (Mid 5.07)4 companies used · median multiple 19.5x · quartiles 15.1x – 25.1xBRBR, CPB, MDLZ, UCFI
- Dividend discount (DDM)12.91 – 17.36 (Mid 14.81)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 47/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 3.2% | 83 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.1% | 68 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 554.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.1% | 9 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -11.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 5.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 4 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 27.3x | 40 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 10.1x | 45 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 20.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 12.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 60.6% | 85 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet1/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth4/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns94/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
FLOWERS FOODS INC (FLO). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-18.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.3 bn USD in 2026; net margin 1.1%; ROE 4.0%; net debt/EBITDA 5.2x.
The estimated value range is 8.42–15.00 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.76 USD, the price of 7.10 USD leaves a potential of 51.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 34.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 47/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 3.2%
- FCF conversion: 554.7%
- FCF yield: 20.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 12.6%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 60.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -11.6%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 5.2x
- Interest coverage: 1.8x
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | 85.3 bn | 21.2 | 15.5% | 10.2% | +5.8% | +17% / −5% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | 7.3 bn | — | -24.9% | -17.0% | −2.9% | −14% / −46% |
| CPBThe Campbell’s Company | 6.9 bn | 17.8 | 10.4% | 4.1% | −5.0% | −24% / −42% |
| OTLYOatly Group AB | 5.1 bn | — | -247.9% | -17.7% | +4.7% | −34% / −55% |
| BYNDBeyond Meat, Inc. | 3.7 bn | — | — | 111.7% | −15.6% | −76% / −97% |
| STKHSteakholder Foods Ltd. | 2.3 bn | — | -266.3% | -112,470.0% | unavailable | −95% / −100% |
| FLOFlowers Foods Inc | 1.5 bn | 27.3 | 4.0% | 1.1% | unavailable | −41% / −68% |
| BRBRBellRing Brands, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 7.2 | — | 7.3% | +16.1% | −67% / −81% |
| SMPLThe Simply Good Foods Company | 1.2 bn | — | -9.6% | -11.5% | −6.5% | −32% / −66% |
| VITLVital Farms, Inc. | 450.8 m | — | -7.4% | -3.0% | +25.3% | −68% / −21% |
| UCFICN Healthy Food Tech Group Corp. | 287.8 m | 36.7 | 39.2% | 24.6% | +144.6% | −46% / unavailable |
| BGSB&G Foods, Inc. | 208.9 m | — | -15.8% | -4.0% | unavailable | −44% / −72% |
| CHSNChanson International Holding | 131.0 m | 112.0 | 0.5% | 1.0% | +0.2% | −99% / −100% |
| SOWGSow Good Inc. | 44.4 m | — | -346.4% | — | unavailable | −75% / −98% |
| MLECMoolec Science SA | 32.7 m | — | -86.4% | -130.0% | +521.5% | −86% / −100% |
| LSFLaird Superfood, Inc. | 26.9 m | — | -22.9% | -3.4% | +15.2% | −12% / +129% |
| BOFBranchOut Food Inc. | 25.9 m | — | -202.6% | -56.8% | +113.3% | −45% / +8% |
| BRLSBorealis Foods Inc. | 24.7 m | — | — | -56.5% | +8.2% | −38% / −90% |
| HAINThe Hain Celestial Group, Inc. | 13.7 m | — | -96.8% | -22.5% | −13.2% | −86% / −99% |
| DDCDDC Enterprise Limited | — | — | -124.4% | -123.3% | +4.6% | −96% / −100% |
| NOMDNomad Foods Limited | — | — | 5.3% | 4.5% | −2.2% | +2% / −22% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FLO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 4.05 Total return -40% · Per year -40% | 7.18 Total return 5% · Per year 5% | 10.83 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 3.67 Total return -40% · Per year -16% | 7.33 Total return 14% · Per year 5% | 12.18 Total return 86% · Per year 23% |
| 5 years | 3.32 Total return -41% · Per year -10% | 7.49 Total return 24% · Per year 4% | 13.71 Total return 118% · Per year 17% |
- Exit P/E± 1.83
- Net margin± 1.28
- Annual revenue growth± 1.09
- Annual dilution± 0.11
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Flowers Foods is the second-largest producer of packaged bakery foods in the United States, with net sales of about 5.3 billion USD in fiscal 2025 1. The company is going through a difficult period, as the packaged fresh bread category weakens and management has lowered its 2026 outlook 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio of well-known brands with leading positions in several categories, such as Nature’s Own, Wonder and Canyon Bakehouse 1.
- A flexible production structure that allows capacity to move quickly to products with high demand 1.
- High-volume customers and varied distribution channels that provide a steady sales base 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Expansion in better-for-you products through Simple Mills and the Nature’s Own relaunch could support growth 13.
- Optimizing the brand portfolio and distribution network could improve margins if the reorganization succeeds 13.
- Disciplined acquisitions, especially in premium categories, could extend geographic and category reach 1.
Threats
- A difficult consumer environment and inflationary pressure could push consumers toward cheaper products or store brands 13.
- Legal and regulatory risks around the independent distributor model could affect results 1.
- Trade tariffs and supply chain disruptions could affect costs and production volumes 1.
Risks
- Weakness in the fresh bread categoryhigh
If volume declines in traditional bread continue, revenue and profitability could stay below expectations 13.
- Dependence on one major customerhigh
Losing or a material deterioration in the relationship with the largest customer could have a significant adverse effect on the business 1.
- Independent distributor modelmedium
Court rulings or regulations on distributor status could materially change the distribution model and its costs 1.
- Labor costsmedium
A shortage of skilled labor and rising wages could reduce production efficiency and margins 13.
- ERP system deploymentmedium
The ERP upgrade, with an estimated cost of about 325 million USD and completion expected in 2027, could face implementation difficulties 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Nature’s Own relaunch and the better-for-you segment grow over time, the company could return to sales and margin growth 3.
- A portfolio of brands with high recognition and leading category positions could support market share even in a difficult environment 1.
- The reorganization and cost reduction program could improve margins if it translates into real efficiencies 3.
What would break the thesis
- If volumes in fresh bread keep falling, sales and profit forecasts could be revised down again 3.
- Competitive pressure and higher marketing spending could limit near-term margin recovery 3.
- Repeated restructuring costs and brand impairments could suggest the portfolio strategy has not yet delivered the expected results 13.
What to watch
- Trend in sales and volumes in the packaged fresh bread categoryQ3 2026
- Results of the Nature’s Own relaunch and its effect on sales2026
- Completion of the spare parts review and any resulting accounting adjustmentsend of fiscal 2026
- Completion of the ERP upgrade and related costs2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Flowers Foods, founded in 1919 and headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia, produces and markets breads, buns, rolls, snack items, bagels, English muffins, tortillas and baking mixes under brands such as Nature’s Own, Dave’s Killer Bread, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, Wonder and Tastykake 1. Its strategy focuses on brands, margins and disciplined acquisitions, and in February 2025 it bought Simple Mills to expand in better-for-you snacking 1. The company reports one reportable segment, although in 2025 it identified two operating segments, legacy Flowers Foods and Simple Mills 1.
Declared long-term goals include growing sales by 1% to 2% annually, EBITDA by 4% to 6% annually and earnings per share by 7% to 9% annually, excluding any future acquisitions 1. The company operates 44 plants in 19 states and sells through channels ranging from supermarkets and club stores to foodservice 1.
Recent results show pressure: in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, net sales declined and net income fell sharply, mainly due to a challenging consumer environment, higher marketing expense and increases in labor and freight costs 3. Management said its response includes the relaunch of Nature’s Own and a reorganization to reduce costs 3.
Segments
Branded Retail
Branded retail sales, the main activity, represented 65.9% of total sales in fiscal 2025, and brands such as Nature’s Own, Dave’s Killer Bread and Wonder lead many categories 1. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, branded retail sales fell 3.8% on lower volumes 3.
Other (store branded, foodservice, contract manufacturing)
The Other category covers store branded retail, foodservice, institutional, vending and contract manufacturing, and in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 its sales fell 4.4%, with inflationary pressure hitting consumer spending on store brands 3.
Market context
Trends
- Weakening packaged fresh bread categoryheadwind
The packaged fresh bread category, especially traditional loaf bread, declined because of changes in purchasing habits, which hurt sales in fiscal 2025 and continue into 2026 13.
- Demand for healthier productstailwind
Demand for products with simple ingredients and better-for-you positioning, illustrated by Simple Mills and the Nature’s Own relaunch, could support margin growth if the brands keep their relevance 13.
- Labor and transport costsheadwind
Rising labor, transport and wage costs reduce margins, and a shortage of skilled workers can affect production line efficiency 13.
- Stabilizing ingredient pricesmixed
Ingredient costs have moderated, which partly helps the company, though this effect could be offset if trade tariffs and supply chains worsen 13.
Competitive position
The analysed sources do not name individual competitors; they describe only the general competitive pressure in fresh bakery and in the better-for-you snack segment 13. The company notes that sustained competitive activity made the operating environment more difficult than expected 3.
Declared strengths are brand recognition, leading positions in categories such as gluten-free and organic bread, and a flexible production structure that lets capacity shift quickly 1. These could offset competitive pressure if in-store execution improves 3.
- Retailer store brands
Store branded products compete directly with Flowers brands and were hit by inflationary pressure on consumer spending 3.
- Other packaged fresh bread producers
The sources mention sustained competition in the fresh bread category without naming individual producers 3.
- Better-for-you snack producers
The better-for-you segment in which Simple Mills operates faces competition from other brands of crackers, snack bars and baking mixes 1.
- Local and regional bread brands
The company’s regional brands were impaired in 2025, which points to strong local competition 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Why we give flowers to those in grief—or buy them for ourselves when we're sadPhys.org · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Red gold from purple flowers: saffron harvest in Kashmir – in picturesThe Guardian — Environment · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Olivia Rodrigo gives Amy Acton flowers at Columbus concertThe Hill · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Florilegium: Procedural Flowers in LaTeXHacker News · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- US: flowers laid at Patrick Stewart's Hollywood star after his deathEuronews — News (EN) · 30 Oct 2026 · EN
- New tropical protea flowers expand floriculture opportunities across HawaiʻiPhys.org · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Customs seizes over $300,000 worth of cannabis flowers, ketamine at Malaysia airportThe Straits Times — Asia · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- How to Design FlowersHacker News · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Ivy bees fight back against honeybees that drive other pollinators off flowersPhys.org · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Campioni mondiali ai designului floral, la București, la Artestry World Of Flowers FestivalAgerpres · 09 Oct 2026 · RO
- Curtis Flowers, US man wrongfully imprisoned for 22 years, dies aged 56The Guardian World · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Bees struggle to smell flowers when air pollutants combinePhys.org · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Petal 'windows' affect the abundance of microbes within flowersPhys.org · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Sixteen new fungus species found hiding in Thailand's flowersPhys.org · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- How a pathogen turns flowers into leavesPhys.org · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
- Flowers of Invention: The Economic Impacts of Patent Rights -- by Jacob MosconaNBER — New Working Papers · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- 1-800-Flowers (FLWS) Bets On Discipline While Revenue Keeps FadingYahoo Finance — News · 13 Sept 2026 · EN
- Bite, buzz, release: How bees make flowers give up their pollenPhys.org · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- 1-800-FLOWERS (FLWS) Q4 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. Q4 2026 Earnings Call SummaryYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 03 Nov 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Aug 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report20 Aug 2026
- Current report20 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report02 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report21 May 2026
- Current report21 May 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement14 Apr 2026
- Current report07 Apr 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · SEC / Flowers Foods, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-18 · SEC / Flowers Foods, Inc. · 20 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Flowers Foods, Inc. · 20 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.