olivLaw · US equity research
The Simply Good Foods Company SMPL
Food and Kindred Products · SIC 2000 · Vertical: Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000)
The Simply Good Foods Company sells protein bars, protein shakes and sweet and salty snacks under the Quest, Atkins and OWYN brands, mainly in North America. Net sales rose in fiscal 2025, but in fiscal 2026 the company faces declining Atkins distribution and a lowered outlook, so the performance of its brands is being watched closely.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) stock was 13.29 USD (+6.58% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.2 bn USD, beta 0.43, 52-week range 9.43–21.40 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 333.3 m USD (−9.7% YoY), net income of 30.5 m USD, diluted EPS 0.34 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 73.2
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.25 – 12.67
- above the upper band · %B 1.18 · band width 31.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 10.52 / 12.72
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.51 / 0.24
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +33.7% | −1.1% | +34.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | +18.9% | −0.5% | +19.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +5.2% | +4.4% | +0.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −33.8% | +12.3% | −46.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −34.2% | +13.5% | −47.8 pp | −45.6% |
| 3 years | −64.6% | +76.4% | −141.0 pp | −72.2% |
| 5 years | −67.6% | +63.7% | −131.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 29 Aug 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 341.3 m | 359.7 m | 381.0 m | 369.0 m | 340.2 m | 326.0 m | 357.0 m | 333.3 m |
| Cost of revenue | 210.8 m | 229.5 m | 242.4 m | 242.4 m | 230.3 m | 223.0 m | 240.9 m | 220.0 m |
| Gross profit | 130.5 m | 130.1 m | 138.5 m | 126.6 m | 109.9 m | 103.0 m | 116.1 m | 113.3 m |
| Operating income | 54.6 m | 54.7 m | 59.3 m | -11.8 m | 37.6 m | -213.3 m | -49.9 m | 45.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 5.0 m | 4.1 m | 4.2 m | 6.0 m | 6.2 m | 4.3 m | 4.3 m | 6.2 m |
| Interest expense | 7.9 m | 6.3 m | 4.9 m | 4.2 m | 4.3 m | 5.8 m | 5.8 m | 5.6 m |
| Pre-tax income | 47.7 m | 49.0 m | 54.7 m | -15.5 m | 33.8 m | -218.0 m | — | — |
| Income tax | 9.6 m | 12.2 m | 13.6 m | -3.1 m | 8.5 m | -58.3 m | -3.0 m | 10.5 m |
| Net income | 38.1 m | 36.7 m | 41.1 m | -12.4 m | 25.3 m | -159.7 m | -52.0 m | 30.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.40 | -0.12 ≈ | 0.26 | -1.73 | -0.58 | 0.34 ≈ |
| Operating cash flow | 32.0 m | 31.2 m ≈ | 69.8 m ≈ | 45.4 m | 50.1 m | 8.1 m ≈ | 44.0 m ≈ | 78.9 m |
| Capex | 307.0 k | 495.0 k ≈ | 1.7 m ≈ | 18.0 m | 2.1 m | 5.5 m ≈ | 2.5 m ≈ | 14.0 m |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 ≈ | 24.3 m ≈ | 26.5 m | 99.6 m | 88.5 m ≈ | 25.0 m ≈ | 104.0 k |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 523.4 m | 816.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +21.3% | +56.0% | +23.1% | +16.2% | +6.3% | +7.1% | +9.0% | −6.5% |
| Net income | -25.2 m | 65.6 m | 40.9 m | 108.6 m | 133.6 m | 139.3 m | 103.6 m | -155.9 m |
| Net income YoY | −167.5% | unavailable | −37.7% | +165.6% | +23.0% | +4.3% | −25.6% | −250.5% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.31 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 1.08 | 1.32 | 1.38 | 1.02 | -1.69 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −160.8% | unavailable | +20.0% | +157.1% | +22.2% | +4.5% | −26.1% | −265.7% |
| net % | -4.8% | 8.0% | 4.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.1% | -11.5% |
| Free cash flow | 72.0 m | 57.2 m | 126.2 m | 105.4 m | 159.5 m | 210.0 m | 157.9 m | 156.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 29 Aug 2026
- Cash
- 138.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 347.2 m USD
- Net debt
- 208.8 m USD
- Equity
- 1.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.24x
- Current ratio
- 5.57x
- ROE
- -9.6%
- ROA
- -7.0%
- FCF margin
- 11.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 595.8 m | 723.1 m | 789.3 m | 819.8 m | 925.2 m | 914.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 409.8 m | 445.6 m | 453.4 m | 511.6 m | 525.7 m | 442.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Research & development | 3.5 m | 4.1 m | 4.3 m | 5.4 m | 5.5 m | 5.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Operating income | 173.7 m | 202.8 m | 204.9 m | 206.5 m | 156.9 m | -179.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 18.2 m | 19.3 m | 20.3 m | 21.0 m | 21.4 m | 24.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 191.8 m ≈ | 222.1 m ≈ | 225.2 m ≈ | 227.5 m ≈ | 178.3 m ≈ | -155.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 31.6 m | 21.9 m | 30.1 m | 26.0 m | 23.2 m | 21.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 80.9 m | 150.6 m | 175.7 m | 186.1 m | 135.9 m | -198.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Income tax | 40.0 m | 42.0 m | 42.1 m | 46.7 m | 32.3 m | -42.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Net income | 40.9 m | 108.6 m | 133.6 m | 139.3 m | 103.6 m | -155.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.42 | 1.08 | 1.32 | 1.38 | 1.02 | -1.69 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 97.4 m | 100.6 m | 100.9 m | 101.3 m | 101.5 m | 92.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 75.3 m | 67.5 m | 87.7 m | 132.5 m | 98.5 m | 138.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Receivables | 111.5 m | 132.7 m | 145.1 m | 150.7 m | 165.0 m | 137.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Inventories | 97.3 m | 125.5 m | 116.6 m | 142.1 m | 167.2 m | 132.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 298.7 m | 351.6 m | 371.7 m | 440.3 m | 453.7 m | 433.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 16.6 m | 18.2 m | 24.9 m | 24.8 m | 39.7 m | 52.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 543.1 m | 543.1 m | 543.1 m | 591.7 m | 590.0 m | 552.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 953.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 59.7 m | 62.1 m | 52.7 m | 58.6 m | 78.3 m | 45.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 285.0 k | 264.0 k | 143.0 k | 0 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Oct 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 451.3 m | 403.0 m | 281.6 m | 397.5 m | 249.1 m | 347.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 113.7 m | 102.2 m | 89.9 m | 108.6 m | 124.6 m | 77.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 863.4 m | 655.6 m | 526.0 m | 708.7 m | 589.2 m | 584.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.2 bn † | 1.4 bn † | 1.6 bn † | 1.7 bn † | 1.8 bn † | 1.5 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 132.1 m | 110.6 m | 171.1 m | 215.7 m | 178.5 m | 181.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Capex | 5.9 m | 5.2 m | 11.6 m | 5.7 m | 20.5 m | 24.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 126.2 m ≈ | 105.4 m ≈ | 159.5 m ≈ | 210.0 m ≈ | 157.9 m ≈ | 156.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.5 m | -8.2 m | -12.2 m | -286.9 m | -20.9 m | -24.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -150.0 m | -110.0 m | -138.5 m | 115.9 m | -191.2 m | -117.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 59.9 m | 16.4 m | 0 | 50.9 m | 213.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
50% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 26.60 – 45.12 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)26.60 – 45.12 (Mid 33.48)WACC 8.3% · starting FCFF 175.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -28.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -8.3% | 50 (vs peers) | 21% |
| Net margin · Quality | -11.5% | 42 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.0% | 25 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -8.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 5.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 13.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 18.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial25/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality47/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-29.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -6.5%; net margin -11.5%; ROE -9.6%.
The estimated value range is 26.60–45.12 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 33.48 USD, the price of 13.29 USD leaves a potential of 152.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 60.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 5.6x
- FCF yield: 13.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 18.5%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.0%
- Interest coverage: -8.4x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | 85.3 bn | 21.2 | 15.5% | 10.2% | +5.8% | +17% / −5% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | 7.3 bn | — | -24.9% | -17.0% | −2.9% | −14% / −46% |
| CPBThe Campbell’s Company | 6.9 bn | 17.8 | 10.4% | 4.1% | −5.0% | −24% / −42% |
| OTLYOatly Group AB | 5.1 bn | — | -247.9% | -17.7% | +4.7% | −34% / −55% |
| BYNDBeyond Meat, Inc. | 3.7 bn | — | — | 111.7% | −15.6% | −76% / −97% |
| STKHSteakholder Foods Ltd. | 2.3 bn | — | -266.3% | -112,470.0% | unavailable | −95% / −100% |
| FLOFlowers Foods Inc | 1.5 bn | 27.3 | 4.0% | 1.1% | unavailable | −34% / −66% |
| BRBRBellRing Brands, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 7.2 | — | 7.3% | +16.1% | −67% / −81% |
| SMPLThe Simply Good Foods Company | 1.2 bn | — | -9.6% | -11.5% | −6.5% | −34% / −65% |
| VITLVital Farms, Inc. | 450.8 m | — | -7.4% | -3.0% | +25.3% | −68% / −21% |
| UCFICN Healthy Food Tech Group Corp. | 287.8 m | 36.7 | 39.2% | 24.6% | +144.6% | −46% / unavailable |
| BGSB&G Foods, Inc. | 208.9 m | — | -15.8% | -4.0% | unavailable | −44% / −72% |
| CHSNChanson International Holding | 131.0 m | 112.0 | 0.5% | 1.0% | +0.2% | −99% / −100% |
| SOWGSow Good Inc. | 44.4 m | — | -346.4% | — | unavailable | −75% / −98% |
| MLECMoolec Science SA | 32.7 m | — | -86.4% | -130.0% | +521.5% | −86% / −100% |
| LSFLaird Superfood, Inc. | 26.9 m | — | -22.9% | -3.4% | +15.2% | −12% / +129% |
| BOFBranchOut Food Inc. | 25.9 m | — | -202.6% | -56.8% | +113.3% | −45% / +8% |
| BRLSBorealis Foods Inc. | 24.7 m | — | — | -56.5% | +8.2% | −38% / −90% |
| HAINThe Hain Celestial Group, Inc. | 13.7 m | — | -96.8% | -22.5% | −13.2% | −86% / −99% |
| NOMDNomad Foods Limited | — | — | 5.3% | 4.5% | −2.2% | +2% / −22% |
| DDCDDC Enterprise Limited | — | — | -124.4% | -123.3% | +4.6% | −96% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SMPL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 09 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-K (27 Oct 2026).
In brief
The Simply Good Foods Company sells protein bars, protein shakes and sweet and salty snacks under the Quest, Atkins and OWYN brands, mainly in North America. Net sales rose in fiscal 2025, but in fiscal 2026 the company faces declining Atkins distribution and a lowered outlook, so the performance of its brands is being watched closely 123.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company owns brands with strong awareness in nutritious snacking and a solid position on retailers' shelves, and its asset-light model supports cash generation.
- The portfolio covers a range of needs, from bars and chips to plant-based protein beverages, providing a base for new launches.
- Management has experience in brand building and acquisitions, and the balance sheet has in the past supported transactions of significant size.
Weaknesses
- The Atkins brand is losing distribution and sales, and other brands have only partly offset this decline.
- Gross margins have fallen recently due to ingredient, packaging and restructuring costs.
- The company recorded significant non-cash impairment on goodwill and on the Atkins and OWYN brands, reflecting weakness in the performance of some assets.
Opportunities
- Expanding distribution in convenience, club and e-commerce channels could raise sales of existing brands.
- Launches of products with higher protein content and new formats could attract new buyers.
- If price increases and productivity measures take hold, margins could gradually recover.
Threats
- Changing consumer preferences or new scientific views on nutrition could reduce demand for the company's products.
- Tariffs, inflation and supply chain disruption could continue to raise costs and weigh on margins.
- Wider use of weight management medications could reduce demand for foods in this category.
Risks
- Shift in consumer preferenceshigh
If perceptions of protein-rich and low-carb products change, brand loyalty and purchase frequency could decline 1.
- Loss of Atkins distributionhigh
The reduction of Atkins shelf space is already visible and could continue in coming periods, affecting total sales 13.
- Costs and tariffsmedium
Ingredient, packaging and logistics costs could remain high, and if prices cannot be raised, margins would suffer 12.
- Asset impairmentmedium
If brand performance stays weak or the share price falls, further goodwill or brand impairments could follow 23.
- Indebtednesslow
The company borrowed additional funds in fiscal 2026, and a higher debt level could reduce financial flexibility if results weaken 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Quest and OWYN regain sales momentum and cost and pricing actions work, margins could gradually recover and the company could resume growth.
- The brand portfolio remains well positioned in protein and reduced-sugar foods, and the asset-light model can support cash generation.
- A moderate debt level and the share repurchase program could support shareholder value if operating results stabilize.
What would break the thesis
- If the Atkins decline continues and OWYN does not recover sales, total sales could stay below earlier levels and further impairments could follow.
- Cost pressure and tariffs could limit margins, especially if price increases cause volume losses.
- Wider use of weight management medications and shifting nutrition perceptions could reduce long-term demand for the company's products.
What to watch
- Fourth quarter results and delivery against the outlook for net sales and Adjusted EBITDAQ4 2026
- Trend in gross margin and the effect of pricing actions and productivity measures2027
- Stabilization of Atkins distribution and recovery of OWYN velocities2027
- Any further goodwill or brand impairments and the level of debtnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 09 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-K (27 Oct 2026).
The business
Simply Good Foods is a consumer packaged food and beverage company that aims to lead the nutritious snacking movement through three brands: Quest, for consumers seeking protein-rich foods that limit sugars and simple carbs, Atkins, for those following a low-carb lifestyle, and OWYN, with plant-based protein beverages tested for the top nine allergens 1. The company runs an asset-light model: it keeps sales, marketing, brand management and product development in house, while manufacturing and distribution are outsourced to contract partners 1. Products are sold through major retail channels, mainly in North America, and through e-commerce, and the OWYN acquisition in June 2024 expanded the portfolio 1.
The stated strategy combines product innovation with expanded distribution and acquisitions. Management pursues new forms with higher protein levels, entry into convenience and club channels, and growth in e-commerce, which represented about 22% of Quest's gross sales in fiscal 2025 1. In marketing, the company aims to attract first-time buyers, including people using weight management medications, for whom it sees complementary benefits 1.
Recent developments show a change in direction: in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 management described early steps in a turnaround plan with three priorities, cost actions and reinvestment behind key brands 3. The company reported a net loss and a non-cash impairment tied to goodwill and the Atkins and OWYN brands, which are central to understanding the outlook 3.
Segments
Market context
The company describes the U.S. nutritious snacking market as large and intensely competitive, with many multinational, regional and local companies competing on quality, taste, awareness and price 1. It believes the trend toward higher protein and lower carbohydrate consumption supports demand, while consumer preferences can shift quickly 1. On costs, ingredient inflation, tariffs and supply chain challenges have weighed on margins in fiscal 2026 23.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 the company said margins would stay under pressure until the benefits of recent pricing actions and productivity measures materialize, and management lowered its fiscal 2026 outlook to net sales of 1.345 to 1.355 billion USD 23.
Trends
- Interest in protein and low carbohydratestailwind
The company says the consumer shift toward protein and low carbohydrate and low sugar foods supports the category, and its brands are aligned with these preferences 1.
- Weight management medicationsmixed
The company notes that the popularity of weight management medications could reduce demand for many foods, but also that it can become a target audience if it explains its products well 1.
- Cost and tariff pressureheadwind
Costs of ingredients, packaging and logistics, together with tariffs, have reduced margins and could continue to affect results if price increases do not fully offset them 23.
- E-commerce growthtailwind
Rising online sales offer a route to wider distribution, although their share remains below that of traditional retail channels 1.
Competitive position
The company says it competes with numerous companies in nutritious snacking, some with far greater resources and better-known brands. Competition arises both nationally and regionally, and rivals may offer similar products at lower prices 1. Competitive pressure could increase if new entrants arrive or existing rivals gain shelf space and share 1.
- Multinational snack and nutrition companies
The sources refer to numerous multinational, regional and local companies selling bars, chips, confections, shakes and supplements, without naming them individually.
- Protein bar and shake producers
Competition in protein products is described generically, with a focus on diets such as keto, paleo or vegan.
- Regional and retail-linked brands
The sources note that local markets have competitors with particular ties to regional retail chains.
- Conventional snack producers
The company compares its products with conventional chips and cookies but does not name competitors.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Annual report27 Oct 2026
- Current report27 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report09 Jul 2026
- Current report09 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)22 Apr 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report21 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report09 Apr 2026
- Current report09 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 Jan 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-08-30 · SEC / The Simply Good Foods Company · 28 Oct 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-05-30 · SEC / The Simply Good Foods Company · 09 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Simply Good Foods Company · 09 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.