olivLaw · US equity research
Garden Stage Limited GSIW
Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services · SIC 6200 · Vertical: Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services (SIC 6200)
Garden Stage Limited is a Hong Kong-based financial services provider offering advisory, brokerage, underwriting and placement, and asset management. The company is also expanding into humanoid robotics through its Mental Form acquisition, while net losses remain significant, so revenue and cost trends will matter for its financial outlook.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Garden Stage Limited (GSIW) stock was 10.50 USD (+2.54% on the day), with market capitalisation 164.1 m USD, P/E 7.6 on diluted EPS of 1.38 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.00, 52-week range 9.12–35.40 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 9.03 – 11.11
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.71 · band width 20.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.41 / 22.04
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.72 / -0.97
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.1% | −1.1% | +7.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −40.7% | −0.5% | −40.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −63.6% | +4.4% | −68.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −59.3% | +12.3% | −71.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −70.0% | +13.5% | −83.5 pp | +11.2% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +40.6% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 12.1, median 204.3, max 2,791.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 m | 3.3 m | 1.4 m | 5.5 m | 7.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +41.3% | −56.8% | +288.1% | +33.2% |
| Net income | -510.9 k | -207.2 k | -4.6 m | -4.3 m | -13.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 1.38 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −66.7% | +2,350.0% | −4.1% | +193.6% |
| net % | -22.2% | -6.4% | -325.8% | -79.0% | -190.1% |
| Free cash flow | -6.9 m | -1.9 m | -7.1 m | -1.4 m | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 17.5 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 24.2 m USD
- Total assets
- 41.9 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.72x
- ROE
- -89.5%
- ROA
- -47.9%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 m | 3.3 m | 1.4 m | 5.5 m | 7.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -510.1 k | -207.7 k | -4.6 m | -4.3 m | -13.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Income tax | 792 | -524 | 13.4 k | 43.2 k | -22.8 k | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Net income | -510.9 k | -207.2 k | -4.6 m | -4.3 m | -13.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 1.38 | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 9.2 m | 11.5 m | 9.3 m | 9.3 m | 10.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7.8 m | 6.3 m | 8.9 m | 7.9 m | 17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | — | — | 947.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 12.5 m | 12.3 m | 13.8 m | 30.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 28.2 k | 20.3 k | 164.8 k | 160.5 k | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 63.7 k | 63.9 k | 64.3 k | 11.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 13.1 m | 16.6 m | 15.9 m | 41.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 11.2 m | 7.1 m | 9.1 m | 17.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 11.2 m | 7.3 m | 9.2 m | 17.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Equity | 128.7 k † | 1.9 m † | 9.3 m † | 6.7 m † | 24.2 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 15.6 m | 15.6 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2025verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -6.9 m | -1.9 m | -7.1 m | -1.1 m | -4.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Capex | 18.3 k | 22.2 k | 1.4 k | 218.2 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -6.9 m ≈ | -1.9 m ≈ | -7.1 m ≈ | -1.4 m ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -18.3 k | -22.2 k | -1.4 k | -218.2 k | -6.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -35.4 k | 388.3 k | 9.7 m | 263.5 k | 20.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 31 Jul 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 164.1 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
46% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 25.15 – 37.91 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E25.15 – 37.91 (Mid 33.85)9 companies used · median multiple 24.5x · quartiles 18.2x – 27.5xBGC, CBOE, CME, ICE, LPLA, MRX, NDAQ, SNEX, TW
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -190.1% | 14 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 30.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 310.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.7x | 77 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.6x | 100 (vs peers) | 23% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -2.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial77/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial14/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation56/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
GARDEN STAGE LIMITED (GSIW). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.3 m USD in 2026; YoY growth 33.2%; net margin -190.1%; ROE -89.5%.
The estimated value range is 25.15–37.91 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 33.85 USD, the price of 10.50 USD leaves a potential of 222.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 69.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 30.7%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 310.2%
- Current ratio: 1.7x
- P/E (TTM): 7.6x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -190.1%
- FCF yield: -2.7%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Security & Commodity Brokers, Dealers, Exchanges & Services (SIC 6200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 15 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | 97.8 bn | 23.9 | 14.2% | 29.6% | +7.5% | +11% / +54% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | 60.9 bn | 30.0 | 17.4% | 22.8% | +11.6% | +21% / +96% |
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. | 36.0 bn | 24.5 | 27.4% | 28.0% | +15.1% | +34% / +89% |
| LPLALPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 24.3 bn | 17.9 | 25.7% | 6.8% | +37.2% | −13% / +40% |
| SNEXStoneX Group Inc. | 6.9 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 0.3% | +32.5% | +41% / +214% |
| MRXMarex Group Ltd | 5.1 bn | 18.2 | 28.7% | 14.5% | +26.9% | +102% / unavailable |
| TOPTop Financial Group Limited | 401.2 m | — | -1.0% | -23.3% | +41.9% | +95% / −51% |
| EBONEbang International Holdings Inc. | 199.5 m | — | -5.6% | -215.6% | +11.4% | −48% / −73% |
| GSIWGarden Stage Limited | 164.1 m | 7.6 | -89.5% | -190.1% | +33.2% | −70% / unavailable |
| WTFWaton Financial Limited | 95.5 m | — | -87.9% | -136.7% | +48.8% | −40% / unavailable |
| STEXStreamex Corp. | 42.0 m | — | -705.4% | — | +122.2% | −92% / −86% |
| SOSSOS Limited | 23.4 m | — | -22.7% | -63.1% | −33.3% | −84% / −100% |
| CMECme Group Inc. | — | 25.2 | 16.1% | 63.3% | +6.4% | +10% / +41% |
| PLUTPlutus Financial Group Limited | — | — | -55.3% | -377.3% | +6.9% | −63% / unavailable |
| TWTradeweb Markets Inc. | 0 | 29.8 | 14.1% | 39.8% | +18.9% | +17% / +31% |
| BGCBGC Group, Inc. | — | 27.5 | 19.5% | 6.0% | +30.0% | +30% / +73% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GSIW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Sept 2026), 6-K (20 Aug 2026).
In brief
Garden Stage Limited is a Hong Kong-based financial services provider offering advisory, brokerage, underwriting and placement, and asset management. The company is also expanding into humanoid robotics through its Mental Form acquisition, while net losses remain significant, so revenue and cost trends will matter for its financial outlook.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds HKSFC licences for dealing, advising and asset management, and has access to the Hong Kong exchange through its operating subsidiaries.
- Its service mix spans advisory, brokerage, underwriting and asset management, which allows cross-selling across business lines.
- The company has invested in new technology systems for portfolio, risk and customer relationship management.
Weaknesses
- Net losses have remained significant in the periods reviewed, which limits internal funding capacity.
- Revenues depend on trading volumes and individually negotiated mandates, making them unpredictable from quarter to quarter.
- The company has relied on several share issuances, which diluted existing shareholders.
Opportunities
- If the humanoid robot business develops, it could open a new revenue source outside financial services.
- Cross-selling between brokerage, asset management and margin financing could raise the average value of each client.
- If market activity recovers, new clients could support higher commission income.
Threats
- Intense competition and pricing pressure could reduce commissions and weigh on profitability.
- Changes to HKSFC capital and compliance rules could raise costs or restrict activity.
- Geopolitical tensions and PRC-related risks could affect the corporate structure and the value of the shares.
Risks
- Persistent net losseshigh
The company has reported net losses over several consecutive fiscal years, which could require new financing if the trend continues.
- Dilution from share issuanceshigh
Registered direct and private placements have issued a large number of new shares at low prices, which may reduce the stake of existing shareholders.
- Regulatory risk in Hong Kongmedium
Failure to meet capital requirements or changes to HKSFC rules could lead to sanctions or narrower business activity.
- PRC-related riskmedium
The report warns that Chinese authorities could restrict the corporate structure and Hong Kong operations, with effects on the value of the shares.
- Dependence on key personnellow
Client relationships depend on experienced employees and brokers, who may leave or renegotiate their terms.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If trading volumes recover and underwriting revenue grows, the company could narrow its losses and show a more stable business model.
- If the humanoid robot business generates sales, the company could add a revenue source distinct from its financial operations.
- Synergies between brokerage, asset management and margin financing could increase the value of existing clients.
What would break the thesis
- If net losses continue, the company could need further share issuances, which would reduce value per share for existing shareholders.
- Unpredictable underwriting and brokerage revenue could make short-term financial planning difficult.
- The robotics and electronic components activity is new, and if sales do not materialise, the investment could yield little return.
What to watch
- Trend in net loss and revenue in quarterly resultsQ1 2027
- Contribution of humanoid robot sales and of Shenyang Mental Aether2027
- Any new share issuances or financings and their effect on the shareholder structurenext 10-K
- Changes to capital requirements or HKSFC rules for licensed firms2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (07 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Sept 2026), 6-K (20 Aug 2026).
The business
Garden Stage Limited, incorporated in the Cayman Islands, conducts its business through Hong Kong operating subsidiaries: I Win Securities Limited, licensed for Type 1 (dealing in securities) activities, and I Win Asset Management Limited, licensed for Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 9 (asset management) activities. Revenues for fiscal 2026 were 7.278837 million USD, while the net loss was 13.838227 million USD, according to the 20-F for the year ended March 31, 2026. Its shares have traded on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol GSIW since December 2023.
Segments
Brokerage and underwriting services
Brokerage, underwriting and placement services depend on customer trading volumes, and underwriting mandates are negotiated project by project, which makes revenue variable and hard to predict. The company argues these business lines reinforce each other, although the synergies are not assured.
Asset management and advisory
Asset management and advisory services target high-net-worth clients and can create cross-selling opportunities with brokerage and margin financing. The asset management subsidiary holds HKSFC licences for advising and asset management, and the company intends to grow this client base.
Robotics and electronics (in development)
Through the acquisition of Mental Form (BVI) Limited and its subsidiary Shenyang Mental Aether, the company is preparing to produce and sell humanoid robots and electronic components. According to the report, production and sales began in April 2026, after the period under review, so this segment's contribution is still uncertain.
Market context
The company operates mainly in Hong Kong's financial market, which the report describes as intensely competitive, highly fragmented and subject to rapid change. Trading volumes, investor confidence and economic and political conditions directly influence commission and underwriting revenues.
Trends
- Volatility in trading volumesmixed
Brokerage commissions depend on trading volumes, which tend to fall when investor confidence weakens. If markets become calmer, revenues could rise, but a period of stress could reduce them.
- Tighter regulatory requirementsheadwind
The report notes that the HKSFC may change capital and compliance requirements, which could mean additional costs for licensed firms. Stricter rules could also limit business activity.
- Growing interest in robotics and automationtailwind
Diversification into humanoid robots and electronic components targets rising demand for these products. If sales materialise, they could add new revenue, but fiscal 2026 has not yet produced substantial sales.
- Reliance on equity financingheadwind
The company raised funds through several registered direct and private placements in 2025 and 2026, which diluted existing shareholders. If losses continue, further financing could remain necessary.
Competitive position
The report says larger competitors have advantages in brand recognition, human and financial resources and geographic reach. Local small and medium-sized providers offering similar services also compete, and pricing pressure could erode margins.
- Large Hong Kong brokerage and investment houses
Competitors with stronger brands, broader services and greater financial resources, cited in the report as an advantage over the company.
- Local small and medium-sized financial services providers
Firms offering similar services, which could reduce fees and pressure the company's margins in the local market.
- New market entrants
New participants can enter if they hire qualified professionals and obtain the required regulatory licences, which intensifies competition.
- Online trading platforms
The report does not name them explicitly, but competition for brokerage clients also comes from digital providers attracting investors with lower fees.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Aug 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)31 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)10 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)12 Feb 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Jan 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Jan 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / Garden Stage Limited · 31 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.