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olivLaw · US equity research

Herc Holdings Inc. HRI

Services-Miscellaneous Equipment Rental & Leasing · SIC 7350 · Vertical: Business services and software (SIC 735x)

158.41USD−6.82% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Herc Holdings is one of the largest equipment rental suppliers in North America, with more than 600 locations and annual revenues close to 4.4 billion USD in 2025. After the H&E acquisition, the company relies on scale and network density to win large projects, and its growth pace in 2026 matters to investors.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Herc Holdings Inc. (HRI) stock was 158.41 USD (−6.82% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.3 bn USD, P/E 43.3 on diluted EPS of 3.66 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.77%, beta 1.70, 52-week range 91.04–181.12 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.4 bn USD (+4.6% YoY), net income of 104.0 m USD (+246.7% YoY), diluted EPS 3.10 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.3 bn USD
shares as of 23 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
43.3
Diluted EPS TTM 3.66 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
2.31%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.77%
DPS 12m 2.80
Beta (2y)
1.70
Volatility (1y) 61%
52-week range
91.04181.12

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
58.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
101.65 – 178.43
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.74 · band width 54.8%
SMA 50 / 200
139.67 / 139.17
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
8.46 / 4.39
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+16.9%−1.1%+18.0 pp—
3 months−6.2%−0.5%−5.7 pp—
6 months+16.5%+4.4%+12.1 pp—
Year to date+6.8%+12.3%−5.6 pp—
1 year+18.1%+13.5%+4.6 pp+26.3%
3 years+27.8%+76.4%−48.7 pp+30.7%
5 years−18.3%+63.7%−82.0 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−49.7%
10 Feb 2026 → 02 Apr 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−62.0%
06 Nov 2024 → 02 Apr 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−4.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.4 bn USD
+4.6% YoY
Net income
104.0 m USD
+246.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.10
+244.4% YoY
net / operating
7.6% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue951.0 m861.0 m1.0 bn1.3 bn1.2 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn
SG&A120.0 m118.0 m127.0 m166.0 m153.0 m146.0 m155.0 m178.0 m
Pre-tax income-43.0 m-8.0 m-46.0 m38.0 m17.0 m-23.0 m24.0 m120.0 m
Income tax3.0 m10.0 m-11.0 m8.0 m-7.0 m1.0 m5.0 m16.0 m
Net income-46.0 m-18.0 m-35.0 m30.0 m24.0 m-24.0 m19.0 m104.0 m
Diluted EPS-1.61 ≈-0.63-1.170.900.71 ≈-0.720.573.10
Operating cash flow331.0 m171.0 m241.0 m ≈358.0 m ≈315.0 m277.0 m314.0 m ≈360.0 m ≈
Capex34.0 m33.0 m47.0 m ≈43.0 m ≈34.0 m41.0 m41.0 m ≈25.0 m ≈
Dividends paid19.0 m21.0 m20.0 m ≈23.0 m ≈23.0 m24.0 m23.0 m ≈24.0 m ≈
Share repurchases0———————

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 94 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 5.4, median 15.3, max 152.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.0 bn2.0 bn1.8 bn2.1 bn2.7 bn3.3 bn3.6 bn4.4 bn
Revenue YoY+12.7%+1.1%−10.9%+16.4%+32.2%+19.8%+8.7%+22.6%
Net income69.1 m47.5 m73.7 m224.0 m330.0 m347.0 m211.0 m1.0 m
Net income YoY−56.9%−31.3%+55.2%+203.9%+47.3%+5.2%−39.2%−99.5%
Diluted EPS2.391.632.517.3710.9212.097.400.03
Diluted EPS YoY−57.3%−31.8%+54.0%+193.6%+48.2%+10.7%−38.8%−99.6%
net %3.5%2.4%4.1%10.8%12.0%10.6%5.9%0.0%
Free cash flow481.5 m578.7 m569.5 m696.0 m813.0 m930.0 m1.1 bn928.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
52.0 m USD
Financial debt
26.0 m USD
Net debt
-26.0 m USD
Equity
1.9 bn USD
Total assets
13.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.01x
Current ratio
1.31x
ROE
0.1%
ROA
0.0%
FCF margin
21.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.3 bn
2024
3.6 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
440.0 m
2024
469.0 m
2025
564.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 14 Feb 2023verified

Pre-tax income
2023
447.0 m
2024
291.0 m
2025
1.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
100.0 m
2024
80.0 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
347.0 m
2024
211.0 m
2025
1.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
12.09
2024
7.40
2025
0.03

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
28.7 m
2024
28.5 m
2025
31.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.53
2024
2.66
2025
2.80

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
71.0 m
2024
83.0 m
2025
52.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
563.0 m
2024
589.0 m
2025
769.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
732.0 m
2024
776.0 m
2025
956.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
465.0 m
2024
554.0 m
2025
868.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
483.0 m
2024
670.0 m
2025
2.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
467.0 m
2024
572.0 m
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
7.1 bn
2024
7.9 bn
2025
13.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
212.0 m
2024
248.0 m
2025
337.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
15.0 m
2024
17.0 m
2025
26.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
508.0 m
2024
562.0 m
2025
730.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
5.8 bn
2024
6.5 bn
2025
11.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.3 bn †
2024
1.4 bn †
2025
1.9 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
156.0 m
2024
161.0 m
2025
157.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
930.0 m ≈
2024
1.1 bn ≈
2025
928.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.6 bn
2024
-1.5 bn
2025
-4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
512.0 m
2024
299.0 m
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
73.0 m
2024
77.0 m
2025
87.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
120.0 m
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
22.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
16.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
19.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
-99.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-85.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-57.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-99.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-86.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-58.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
2.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
22.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
76.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
8.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-39.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
141.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
914.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
65 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
5.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
43.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
43.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
1.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
4.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
21.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 52 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

158.41 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
43.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
2.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
22.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 23 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 27 Oct 2026
verified 2269derived 128

Score by group

  • Valuation49
  • Returns55
  • Quality68
  • Balance sheet23
  • Growth50

Estimated value range

Low
35.36
USD per share
Mid
54.13
USD per share
High
65.25
USD per share
Price: 158.41 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -65.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -192.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 33.93 – 81.02 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E33.93 – 81.02 (Mid 66.06)
    11 companies used · median multiple 18.0x · quartiles 9.3x – 22.1x
    AER, EQPT, FTAI, KPLT, MGRC, NPKI, PRG, SUNB, TRTN-PA, UPBD, URI
  • Dividend discount (DDM)36.79 – 49.48 (Mid 42.21)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Business services and software (SIC 735x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 52/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality2.5%36 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality914.6%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth16.9%100 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-86.0%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x23 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation43.3x8 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation21.2%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns1.8%25 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns8.4%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial23/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality68/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns55/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation49/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

HERC HOLDINGS INC. (HRI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 22.6%; net margin 2.5%; ROE 6.3%.

The estimated value range is 35.36–65.25 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 54.13 USD, the price of 158.41 USD leaves a potential of -65.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -192.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 52/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 914.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 16.9%
  • FCF yield: 21.2%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 8.4%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -86.0%
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • P/E (TTM): 43.3x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.8%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Business services and software (SIC 735x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
43.3x
vertical median 18.6x
above median (+132.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 9.0x
P/S
1.1x
vertical median 2.5x
below median (−56.2%)
P/B
2.7x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+16.0%)
ROE
6.3%
vertical median 15.5%
below median (−59.4%)
Net margin
2.5%
vertical median 8.8%
below median (−71.5%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 8.4%
Revenue YoY
22.6%
vertical median 8.3%
above median (+174.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.3x
Dividend yield
1.8%
vertical median 1.2%
above median (+47.7%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
URIUnited Rentals, Inc.69.6 bn24.430.6%16.3%+4.9%+38% / +136%
SUNBSunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.33.1 bn23.818.2%12.1%+3.4%unavailable / unavailable
AERAerCap Holdings N.V.27.7 bn7.821.1%44.0%+6.5%+24% / +143%
FTAIFtai Aviation Ltd.18.4 bn36.2154.3%15.5%+44.5%+4% / +336%
HRIHerc Holdings Inc.5.3 bn43.36.3%2.5%+22.6%+18% / +28%
WSCWillscot Holdings Corporation3.5 bn—-7.1%-3.0%−4.8%−2% / −54%
MGRCMcGRATH RENTCORP3.2 bn20.512.9%16.8%+3.7%+29% / +31%
TRTN-PATriton International Limited2.5 bn4.918.8%854.3%+22.4%−4% / −4%
CTOSCustom Truck One Source, Inc.2.3 bn76.73.7%1.4%+7.9%+59% / +74%
PRGProg Holdings, Inc.1.6 bn10.820.0%5.5%+0.4%+39% / +46%
UPBDUpbound Group, Inc.1.4 bn12.715.5%2.4%+8.7%+35% / −17%
EQPTEquipmentShare.com Inc1.2 bn19.27.4%1.3%+16.3%unavailable / unavailable
NPKINPK International Inc.758.7 m18.012.3%14.0%+27.4%−27% / +30%
KPLTKatapult Holdings, Inc.50.0 m7.2—5.4%+18.0%+62% / −9%
EHGOEShallGo Inc.——-117.3%-69.4%+21.1%−54% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for HRI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
103.94
Total return -33% · Per year -33%
182.92
Total return 18% · Per year 18%
274.38
Total return 76% · Per year 76%
3 years
123.29
Total return -17% · Per year -6%
241.91
Total return 60% · Per year 17%
395.11
Total return 158% · Per year 37%
5 years
146.24
Total return 2% · Per year 0%
319.93
Total return 116% · Per year 17%
568.96
Total return 277% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 60.48
  • Net margin± 42.33
  • Annual revenue growth± 31.57
  • Annual dilution± 3.56

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).

In brief

Herc Holdings is one of the largest equipment rental suppliers in North America, with more than 600 locations and annual revenues close to 4.4 billion USD in 2025 3. After the H&E acquisition, the company relies on scale and network density to win large projects, and its growth pace in 2026 matters to investors 23.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Large branch network and diversified fleet, with a strong position on national and large projects 3.
  • Integration of H&E is complete, and quarterly results show improvement in key metrics 23.
  • The company has access to large financing lines and has kept substantial liquidity 3.

Weaknesses

  • Debt is high after the acquisition, and interest costs have risen significantly 23.
  • Operating costs as a share of rental revenue are higher than before the acquisition 3.
  • New branches and the acquired network need time to mature, which slows margins 3.

Opportunities

  • Demand for large and specialty projects could raise revenues and market share 3.
  • Revenue and cost synergies from H&E could improve margins if delivered as planned 3.
  • Expanding digital offerings and specialty products could reduce sensitivity to seasonality 2.

Threats

  • A slowdown in construction or industrial investment could reduce demand for equipment 1.
  • High fuel prices and tariffs could raise costs and pressure margins 2.
  • Regional competition and price pressure could reduce market share in some regions 1.

Risks

  • Cyclical demandhigh

    The business depends on customer investment in construction and industry, which can fall sharply in periods of economic slowdown 1.

  • High leveragehigh

    Net debt rose after the H&E acquisition, and financing costs could weigh on profitability if interest rates stay high 23.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    The synergies promised from the H&E acquisition could be realized more slowly or at higher cost than estimated 1.

  • Fuel and transport costsmedium

    Rising fuel and transport costs can reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 23.

  • Supplier dependencelow

    Delays in equipment deliveries from suppliers could affect the ability to meet demand 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If large projects keep growing, the company's scale and network density could let it gain more market share 3.
  • The H&E integration appears complete, and key metrics improved in the second quarter of 2026 23.
  • The raised 2026 guidance shows management sees solid demand and a good pipeline for the second half of the year 3.

What would break the thesis

  • High net debt and large interest costs could limit financial flexibility if the market slows 23.
  • Fuel and operating cost pressure could keep weighing on margins in the near term 23.
  • The cyclicality of construction and industry could suddenly reduce demand for rental equipment 1.

What to watch

  • Trend in fleet utilization and dollar utilizationQ3 2026
  • Delivery against the raised revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance2026
  • Fuel costs and the adjusted EBITDA margin trendQ3 2026
  • Net debt level and leverage after the acquisitionnext 10-Q

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).

The business

Herc Holdings Inc. operates through its subsidiary Herc Rentals Inc. and is mainly engaged in renting equipment, with revenues from rentals, sales of used rental equipment, sales of new equipment and parts, and services 1. Equipment rental is the largest part of revenue, and the company grew in 2025 mainly through the H&E acquisition, which added about 160 branches 1. The offering includes classic equipment lines, specialty solutions and the ProControl digital platform 3.

The business depends on capital spending and maintenance by customers, especially contractors in construction and industrial clients, so the company is sensitive to economic cycles 1. The model depends on fleet utilization, pricing and the cost of financing, since most investment goes into equipment 1. Seasonality is significant, with demand lower in winter months, particularly in the northern United States and Canada 2.

In the first half of 2026 the company reported total revenues of 2343 mn USD, up year over year, and dollar utilization was nearly flat 3. Management raised its 2026 guidance, citing large projects and a higher mix of specialty equipment rentals 3.

Segments

Equipment rental

Equipment rental is the largest source of income, with 3770 mn USD in 2025 and growth of 18% 1. The growth came mainly from the H&E acquisition, while on a pro forma basis rental revenue fell 6% due to moderation in some local markets 1.

Sales of rental equipment

Sales of fleet equipment rose 64% in 2025 and helped renew the fleet mix, but the margin fell from 28% to 18% 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the margin recovered to 22%, helped by a more favorable sales channel mix 2.

Services and sales of new equipment

Revenues from services and sales of new equipment, parts and supplies are much smaller and play a supporting role to the core rental business 1. They complement customer relationships but do not change the main structure of the company 1.

Market context

The equipment rental market is fragmented, with competitors ranging from small firms with one or two branches to public companies and dealer divisions 1. Demand depends on activity in construction, industry, oil and gas, infrastructure and mining 1. Management argues the current environment favors companies of scale 1.

The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, with high interest rates, inflation pressures and possible tariffs, and fuel costs rose in 2026 2. The company expects higher construction spending in 2026 and aims to gain share on large projects 3.

Trends

  • Large projects and infrastructuretailwind

    Activity on mega projects and infrastructure supports demand from national accounts, and management says the pipeline for the second half of the year looks strong 3. If these projects extend, the company's scale could become an advantage 3.

  • Fuel costsheadwind

    Higher fuel prices have hit margins, and operating expenses rose as a share of rental revenue 23. The company is taking further steps to offset this, but pressure could continue if prices stay elevated 3.

  • Cost of financingheadwind

    Higher interest rates and the debt raised for the H&E acquisition have increased financing costs, and management monitors exposure to floating rate debt 2. Pressure could ease if rates stabilize, though this is not certain 2.

  • Market consolidation and scalemixed

    Scale players can gain share in large rentals, and the H&E acquisition added fleet and network density 13. Integration of H&E is complete, but the benefits depend on execution 2.

Competitive position

Competition comes from thousands of small and regional operators and from dealers who both sell and rent equipment 1. Pressure on prices and on retaining employees can reduce rental volumes and margins 1.

The company's advantage comes from network scale, diversification across industries and the ability to serve national customers on complex projects 23. If smaller competitors gain share in local markets, this advantage could be tested 1.

  • United RentalsURI

    Leading American equipment rental company, comparable in business model and customers.

  • Sunbelt Rentals

    Rental operator with a broad network in North America and a direct rival on large projects.

  • Regional and local operators

    Firms with one to a few branches that compete on price in local markets.

  • Equipment dealers

    Sellers that rent and sell directly, competing for construction and industrial customers.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Herc Holdings Inc. · 17 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Herc Holdings Inc. · 28 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Herc Holdings Inc. · 28 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.