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olivLaw · US equity research

IceCure Medical Ltd. ICCM

Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus · SIC 3841 · Vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)

0.79USD+2.59% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

IceCure Medical Ltd. is a medical device company based in Caesarea, Israel, focused on liquid nitrogen cryoablation systems that destroy tumors through a minimally invasive procedure. The company received FDA marketing authorization in October 2025 for ProSense in low-risk breast cancer in women aged 70 and above, yet its revenue remains small at about 3.379 mn USD in fiscal 2025 while its accumulated deficit exceeds 120.4 mn USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, IceCure Medical Ltd. (ICCM) stock was 0.79 USD (+2.59% on the day), with market capitalisation 57.8 m USD, P/E 3.3 on diluted EPS of 0.24 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.44, 52-week range 0.77–21.90 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
57.8 m USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
3.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.24 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
30.34%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.44
Volatility (1y) 160%
52-week range
0.7721.90

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
18.3
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.80 – 1.21
below the lower band · %B -0.02 · band width 40.6%
SMA 50 / 200
1.57 / 7.79
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.22 / -0.23
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−48.6%−1.1%−47.5 pp—
3 months−75.4%−0.5%−74.9 pp—
6 months−90.1%+4.4%−94.5 pp—
Year to date−95.7%+12.3%−108.0 pp—
1 year−96.4%+13.5%−109.9 pp−29.7%
3 years−96.5%+76.4%−172.9 pp−20.7%
5 years−99.7%+63.7%−163.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−96.5%
16 Mar 2026 → 03 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−99.6%
09 Nov 2021 → 03 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−67.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 5-quarter history (min 76.3, median 101.1, max 261.4; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.6 m3.9 m4.1 m3.1 m3.2 m3.3 m3.4 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+137.7%+7.0%−25.4%+4.7%+1.9%+2.7%
Net income-4.6 m-3.7 m-9.9 m-17.0 m-14.7 m-15.3 m-15.1 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS0.330.220.350.460.320.300.24
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−33.3%+59.1%+31.4%−30.4%−6.3%−20.0%
net %-279.7%-96.4%-239.1%-550.3%-453.8%-465.5%-445.6%
Free cash flow-2.1 m-3.9 m-13.1 m-15.2 m-13.0 m-12.6 m-14.6 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
8.9 m USD
Financial debt
13.0 k USD
Net debt
-8.9 m USD
Equity
9.1 m USD
Total assets
13.9 m USD
Debt / equity
0.00x
Current ratio
2.61x
ROE
-188.8%
ROA
-113.8%
FCF margin
-432.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.2 m
2024
3.3 m
2025
3.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.9 m
2024
1.8 m
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.3 m
2024
1.5 m
2025
1.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
8.3 m
2024
7.1 m
2025
7.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Mar 2023verified

Operating income
2023
-15.6 m
2024
-15.7 m
2025
-15.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-14.7 m
2024
-15.3 m
2025
-15.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.32
2024
0.30
2025
0.24

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
45.6 m
2024
50.9 m
2025
63.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
10.5 m
2024
7.6 m
2025
8.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
103.0 k
2024
221.0 k
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2025verified

Inventories
2023
2.3 m
2024
2.0 m
2025
2.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
14.2 m
2024
10.8 m
2025
12.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.5 m
2024
1.3 m
2025
993.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
16.4 m
2024
12.6 m
2025
13.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
502.0 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2024verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
161.0 k
2025
13.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
3.9 m
2024
5.5 m
2025
4.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
12.2 m †
2024
6.9 m †
2025
9.1 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
45.7 m
2024
56.6 m
2025
73.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-12.6 m
2024
-12.6 m
2025
-14.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
480.0 k
2024
71.0 k
2025
36.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-13.0 m ≈
2024
-12.6 m ≈
2025
-14.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-684.0 k
2024
446.0 k
2025
-36.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
83.0 k
2024
9.2 m
2025
15.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-20.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-19.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
36.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
-446.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
-445.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
-432.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
-188.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
-113.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
unavailable
insufficient data
ROCE
-166.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-8.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
-14.6 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
36.0 k USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
-14.6 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
391 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
57.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
49.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
3.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
30.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
6.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
17.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
14.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-25.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.79 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 57.8 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
57.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
3.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
6.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-188.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
-445.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

25/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 17 Mar 2026
verified 174

Score by group

46% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
3.22
USD per share
Mid
5.30
USD per share
High
8.44
USD per share
Price: 0.79 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 570.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 85.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.22 – 8.44 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E3.22 – 8.44 (Mid 5.30)
    12 companies used · median multiple 22.1x · quartiles 13.4x – 35.2x
    BDX, BSX, BVS, DXCM, GCTK, GMED, MMM, RMD, SNWV, SOLV, SYK, WST
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-445.6%9 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.1%26 (on a fixed band)18%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-19.5%0 (on a fixed band)18%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.6x100 (on a fixed band)9%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation3.3x92 (vs peers)23%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-25.3%0 (on a fixed band)18%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth13/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial9/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation51/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

IceCure Medical Ltd. (ICCM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.7%; net margin -445.6%; ROE -188.8%.

The estimated value range is 3.22–8.44 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 5.30 USD, the price of 0.79 USD leaves a potential of 570.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 85.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 45.8% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 2.6x
  • P/E (TTM): 3.3x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -445.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.1%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -19.5%
  • FCF yield: -25.3%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
3.3x
vertical median 22.3x
below median (−85.2%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 19.2x
P/S
17.1x
vertical median 3.2x
above median (+443.0%)
P/B
6.4x
vertical median 3.3x
above median (+91.1%)
ROE
-188.8%
vertical median -50.1%
below median
Net margin
-445.6%
vertical median -11.3%
below median
EBIT margin
-446.7%
vertical median -5.4%
below median
Revenue YoY
2.7%
vertical median 10.2%
below median (−73.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 2.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SYKStryker Corp129.3 bn36.216.0%13.8%+11.2%−8% / +15%
MMM3m Company100.2 bn28.980.8%14.0%+1.5%+13% / +134%
BSXBoston Scientific Corporation66.4 bn19.414.3%16.6%+19.9%−55% / −18%
BDXBecton, Dickinson And Company57.0 bn63.23.8%4.0%+8.2%+37% / +13%
RMDResMed Inc.33.8 bn21.926.4%27.8%+9.9%−6% / +52%
DXCMDexcom, Inc.33.0 bn34.837.7%19.4%+15.6%+39% / −23%
WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc.28.5 bn45.921.2%18.8%+6.3%+47% / +17%
SOLVSolventum Corporation15.2 bn10.934.0%17.3%+0.9%+5% / unavailable
GMEDGlobus Medical, Inc.11.7 bn22.311.8%17.0%+16.7%−4% / +94%
TFXTeleflex Incorporated6.4 bn—-28.9%-45.8%+17.2%+31% / −34%
ICUIIcu Medical Inc4.3 bn144.21.4%1.4%−6.3%+16% / +97%
ATECAlphatec Holdings, Inc.1.3 bn—-1,888.0%-10.3%+25.0%−63% / −30%
SIBNSi-Bone, Inc.1.1 bn—-7.7%-6.2%+20.2%+28% / +32%
KIDSOrthoPediatrics Corp875.0 m—-9.8%-12.8%+15.4%+81% / +9%
SGHTSight Sciences, Inc.538.0 m—-50.1%-32.1%−3.1%+16% / +184%
CERSCerus Corp487.7 m—-10.7%-2.9%+16.1%+37% / +50%
SIShoulder Innovations, Inc.437.4 m—-151.9%-58.3%+49.6%+36% / unavailable
OFIXOrthofix Medical Inc.395.9 m—-13.9%-7.4%+2.9%−40% / −12%
CLPTClearPoint Neuro, Inc.325.7 m—-167.5%-79.4%+17.8%−30% / +76%
TMCITreace Medical Concepts, Inc.292.7 m—-72.0%-29.0%+1.6%+51% / −49%
CTSOCytosorbents Corporation286.6 m—-336.2%-48.9%+4.1%−72% / −81%
OSUROrasure Technologies, Inc256.6 m—-14.1%-43.7%−38.1%+56% / −49%
GUTSFractyl Health, Inc.154.8 m———−100.0%−95% / unavailable
KRMDKoru Medical Systems, Inc.151.0 m—-10.5%-4.0%+22.2%−45% / +45%
LUNGPulmonx Corporation123.2 m—-90.3%-47.9%+8.0%+75% / −74%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ICCM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Sept 2026).

    In brief

    IceCure Medical Ltd. is a medical device company based in Caesarea, Israel, focused on liquid nitrogen cryoablation systems that destroy tumors through a minimally invasive procedure. The company received FDA marketing authorization in October 2025 for ProSense in low-risk breast cancer in women aged 70 and above, yet its revenue remains small at about 3.379 mn USD in fiscal 2025 while its accumulated deficit exceeds 120.4 mn USD 1.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has a technology with FDA authorization for one clinical indication, favorable clinical data from the ICE3 study and a pioneering position in LN2 cryoablation.
    • Products are authorized in many countries, and disposables generate recurring revenue with each procedure performed.
    • The procedure is minimally invasive, with fast recovery and no need for reconstruction, which can attract both patients and hospitals.

    Weaknesses

    • Revenue is very small compared with operating losses, and the company relies on outside financing to continue operations.
    • Gross margin fell in fiscal 2025 as cost of revenues rose faster than revenue.
    • Dependence on distributors and insurer coverage limits the speed of commercialization.

    Opportunities

    • Extending FDA authorization to broader patient populations or other indications could considerably expand the addressable market.
    • Obtaining CPT codes and insurance coverage could speed adoption in hospitals and clinics in the United States.
    • Markets such as China, where demand grew in fiscal 2025, could become a larger revenue source if approvals expand.

    Threats

    • Large competitors with superior resources could limit the company's ability to gain market share.
    • Difficulty raising funds on acceptable terms could force the company to scale back product development.
    • Changes in regulation or additional study requirements could delay approvals or raise costs.

    Risks

    • Doubt about going concernhigh

      Management has concluded there are conditions that raise substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern, which could prevent it from obtaining new financing on reasonable terms.

    • Minimal revenue and recurring losseshigh

      The company has generated minimal revenue from product sales and has incurred losses every year since inception, and it may never become profitable.

    • Reimbursement coveragemedium

      If insurers do not cover the procedure, adoption in hospitals could remain slow regardless of FDA authorization.

    • Post-market surveillance obligationsmedium

      Meeting post-market surveillance obligations imposed by the FDA could generate additional costs and delays.

    • Reliance on distributors and supplierslow

      Lack of a major distribution partner could limit access to new markets, and reliance on subcontractors for manufacturing could affect quality and costs.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • FDA authorization for breast cancer and support from surgical societies could turn cryoablation into a standard alternative for small, low-risk tumors.
    • If CPT codes and insurance coverage are obtained, revenue from disposables could grow quickly given the recurring sales model.
    • Clinical data such as the high rate of local recurrence-free patients could persuade hospitals and payers to adopt the technology.

    What would break the thesis

    • Revenue is minimal compared with accumulated losses, and the company could remain dependent on outside financing for a long period.
    • Without CPT codes and insurance coverage, adoption could stay limited to a few clinics, which could keep revenue low.
    • Competitors with much greater resources could reduce the company's chances of expanding its market share.

    What to watch

    • Trend in disposables revenue and gross margin versus fiscal 2025Q1 2027
    • Receipt of CPT I codes for breast cancer cryoablation and results of insurer negotiations2027
    • New financing or changes in liquidity relative to the going concern statementnext 10-K
    • Extension of ProSense authorization or XSense approvals in new indications and countries, including China2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 17 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (05 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Sept 2026).

    The business

    IceCure Medical is a commercial stage medical device company that develops and sells LN2-based cryoablation systems for treating benign and malignant tumors by freezing tissue inside the patient's body 1. Its flagship ProSense system, together with associated CryoProbes, has FDA marketing authorization for low-risk breast cancer in women aged 70 and above, and its XSense system with CryoProbes has 510(k) clearance from the FDA 1. In fiscal 2025 the company reported revenue of 3.379 mn USD and a net loss of 15.057 mn USD, and management concluded there are conditions that raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern 1.

    Segments

    Systems

    Sales of systems such as ProSense and IceSense3 were 1.326 mn USD in fiscal 2025, slightly below the prior year, which points to slow equipment adoption 1.

    Market context

    The breast cancer treatment and minimally invasive procedure market is contested, and the company argues that cryoablation could replace surgery for small, low-risk tumors, with advantages such as reducing re-excision after lumpectomy, where rates range from 14% to 20% 1. Adoption, however, depends on CPT codes, insurer coverage and distribution partnerships, and results across key markets have been uneven, with declines in India and growth in China 1.

    Trends

    • FDA authorization for breast cancertailwind

      The FDA authorization granted in October 2025 for ProSense could open access to treatment of low-risk breast cancer, and support from breast surgeons' societies in March 2026 could help acceptance of the procedure.

    • CPT codes and insurance coverageheadwind

      Obtaining CPT I codes for breast cancer cryoablation and negotiating coverage with insurers are essential steps that remain unfinished, which could limit revenue growth.

    • Preference for minimally invasive surgerytailwind

      Physician interest in less aggressive alternatives to open surgery supports demand for cryoablation, especially for small, low-risk tumors.

    • Need for additional fundingmixed

      Difficulty raising capital on acceptable terms could force the company to reduce or delay development and commercialization, making capital availability a mixed factor.

    Competitive position

    The company operates in a tumor treatment market where large competitors have greater market share, brand recognition and financial and human resources. Competition comes mainly from thermal ablation using radiofrequency and microwave, which the company says has higher pain and complication rates, and dominant competitors could significantly limit IceCure's sales in each segment 1.

    • Thermal ablation providers (radiofrequency and microwave)

      The company considers heat-based technologies less advantageous because they cause more pain and complications, though they have a broader installed base 1.

    • Established cancer treatment companies with dominant market shares

      These companies have brand recognition, regulatory experience and greater resources, giving them dominant positions that are hard to match 1.

    • Conventional breast tumor surgery

      Lumpectomy remains the standard of care, and the company must show that its alternative can replace it 1.

    • Other cryoablation system makers

      Cryoablation rivals compete for the same hospitals and reimbursement codes, so differentiation through clinical data is essential 1.

    News & filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / IceCure Medical Ltd. · 17 Mar 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.