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olivLaw · US equity research

Key Tronic Corporation KTCC

Printed Circuit Boards · SIC 3672 · Vertical: Printed Circuit Boards (SIC 3672)

1.46USD−29.13% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Key Tronic is a contract electronics manufacturer with facilities in the United States, Mexico and Vietnam, having shifted from keyboards to contract manufacturing for a wide range of products. In fiscal 2026 net sales fell to 386.7 million USD on reduced legacy and end-of-life programs, but the order backlog rose to 204.1 million USD and management expects revenue growth in coming quarters.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Key Tronic Corporation (KTCC) stock was 1.46 USD (−29.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.2 m USD, beta 0.52, 52-week range 1.46–4.26 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 102.0 m USD (−7.7% YoY), net income of -34.3 m USD, diluted EPS -3.16 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
16.2 m USD
shares as of 21 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -4.41 · TTM to 27 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-302.05%
TTM to 27 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.52
Volatility (1y) 69%
52-week range
1.464.26

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
14.6
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
1.79 – 2.39
below the lower band · %B -0.56 · band width 28.4%
SMA 50 / 200
2.31 / 3.06
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.13 / -0.11
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−33.0%−1.1%−31.9 pp—
3 months−64.1%−0.5%−63.7 pp—
6 months−54.5%+4.4%−58.9 pp—
Year to date−47.7%+12.3%−60.0 pp—
1 year−57.2%+13.5%−70.7 pp+4.6%
3 years−63.1%+76.4%−139.5 pp+124.2%
5 years−77.0%+63.7%−140.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−65.7%
02 Jul 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−80.0%
10 Feb 2023 → 04 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−25.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 27 Jun 2026

Revenue
102.0 m USD
−7.7% YoY
Net income
-34.3 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-3.16
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-33.7% / -3.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26
Revenue131.6 m113.9 m112.0 m110.5 m98.8 m96.3 m89.6 m102.0 m
Cost of revenue118.3 m106.1 m103.4 m103.7 m90.5 m95.8 m82.4 m94.1 m
Gross profit13.3 m7.7 m8.6 m6.8 m8.3 m560.0 k7.2 m7.9 m
Research & development2.3 m2.3 m2.3 m2.2 m2.1 m1.8 m1.8 m2.3 m
SG&A6.6 m6.5 m6.8 m6.9 m6.8 m9.0 m6.2 m14.6 m
Operating income4.4 m-1.1 m-459.0 k-2.3 m-584.0 k-10.3 m-238.0 k-3.6 m
Depreciation & amortisation3.0 m2.5 m ≈2.4 m ≈1.7 m2.5 m2.5 m ≈2.1 m ≈3.1 m
Interest expense3.3 m3.9 m2.6 m2.8 m2.8 m2.4 m2.4 m2.5 m
Pre-tax income1.2 m-5.0 m-3.0 m-5.1 m-3.4 m-12.6 m-2.6 m-6.2 m
Income tax57.0 k-111.0 k-2.4 m-1.2 m-1.1 m-4.1 m-9.0 k28.2 m
Net income1.1 m-4.9 m-604.0 k-3.9 m-2.3 m-8.6 m-2.6 m-34.3 m
Diluted EPS0.10-0.46-0.06-0.36 ≈-0.21-0.79-0.24-3.16 ≈
Operating cash flow9.9 m1.6 m ≈-1.4 m ≈8.8 m7.6 m6.4 m ≈-4.0 m ≈-5.5 m
Capex377.0 k444.0 k ≈2.2 m ≈1.1 m3.2 m3.3 m ≈-2.8 m ≈2.7 m

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue464.0 m449.5 m518.7 m544.2 m605.3 m566.9 m467.9 m386.7 m
Revenue YoY+4.0%−3.1%+15.4%+4.9%+11.2%−6.3%−17.5%−17.4%
Net income-8.0 m4.8 m4.3 m3.4 m5.2 m-2.8 m-8.3 m-47.8 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable−8.8%−22.2%+52.7%−154.0%unavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.740.440.390.310.47-0.26-0.77-4.41
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable−11.4%−20.5%+51.6%−155.3%unavailableunavailable
net %-1.7%1.1%0.8%0.6%0.9%-0.5%-1.8%-12.4%
Free cash flow-7.5 m-39.6 m-25.7 m-11.7 m-21.1 m9.8 m14.8 m-1.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 27 Jun 2026

Cash
584.0 k USD
Financial debt
106.2 m USD
Net debt
105.6 m USD
Equity
69.2 m USD
Total assets
299.8 m USD
Debt / equity
1.54x
Current ratio
2.10x
ROE
-51.3%
ROA
-15.5%
FCF margin
-0.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
566.9 m
2025
467.9 m
2026
386.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
527.1 m
2025
431.4 m
2026
362.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
39.9 m
2025
36.4 m
2026
23.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Research & development
2024
8.3 m
2025
9.2 m
2026
8.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

SG&A
2024
25.2 m
2025
26.7 m
2026
36.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Operating income
2024
6.8 m
2025
562.0 k
2026
-14.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
11.0 m
2025
9.6 m
2026
10.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
17.8 m ≈
2025
10.2 m ≈
2026
-4.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
11.9 m
2025
12.5 m
2026
10.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
-5.2 m
2025
-12.0 m
2026
-24.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Income tax
2024
-2.4 m
2025
-3.6 m
2026
23.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Net income
2024
-2.8 m
2025
-8.3 m
2026
-47.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
-0.26
2025
-0.77
2026
-4.41

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
10.8 m
2025
10.8 m
2026
10.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
4.8 m
2025
1.4 m
2026
584.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Inventories
2024
105.1 m
2025
97.3 m
2026
95.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Current assets
2024
288.4 m
2025
234.2 m
2026
223.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
28.8 m
2025
27.7 m
2026
28.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 16 Sept 2021verified

Total assets
2024
355.3 m
2025
315.9 m
2026
299.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
79.4 m
2025
63.7 m
2026
76.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
3.1 m
2025
6.2 m
2026
7.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
116.4 m
2025
98.9 m
2026
99.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
104.2 m
2025
92.0 m
2026
106.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
231.4 m
2025
198.7 m
2026
230.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Equity
2024
124.0 m †
2025
117.1 m †
2026
69.2 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 07 Jul 2021verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
13.8 m
2025
18.9 m
2026
4.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Capex
2024
4.0 m
2025
4.1 m
2026
6.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
9.8 m ≈
2025
14.8 m ≈
2026
-1.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-2.1 m
2025
-4.2 m
2026
-4.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-10.5 m
2025
-18.1 m
2026
-1.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Sept 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-17.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-13.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-5.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-2,718.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-113.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
6.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBITDA margin
-1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBIT margin
-3.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net margin
-12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF margin
-0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Returns

ROE
-51.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
ROA
-15.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
ROIC
-6.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
ROCE
-7.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
105.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-1.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
4.4 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Capital expenditure
6.4 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Free cash flow
-1.9 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
70 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
16.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
121.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-302.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
P/S
0.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 25 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

1.46 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 16.2 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
16.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-51.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Jun 2026
Net margin
-12.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-17.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 27 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 27 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 21 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 24 Sept 2026
verified 2595derived 166

Score by group

  • Balance sheet77
  • Growth0
  • Valuation57
  • Quality3

Estimated value range

Low
7.56
USD per share
Mid
11.98
USD per share
High
22.27
USD per share
Price: 1.46 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 720.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 87.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.63 – 23.29 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)1.63 – 21.26 (Mid 6.71)
    WACC 5.6% · starting FCFF 6.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 86%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -19.7%
  • Peers: EV/Sales13.48 – 23.29 (Mid 17.25)
    6 companies used · median multiple 0.8x · quartiles 0.7x – 0.9x
    BHE, CLS, FLEX, JBL, KE, SANM
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Printed Circuit Boards (SIC 3672)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 25/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality6.2%0 (on a fixed band)12%
EBIT margin · Quality-3.8%9 (vs peers)10%
FCF margin · Quality-0.5%0 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-13.9%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth-17.4%0 (vs peers)10%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.1x77 (on a fixed band)7%
EV/Sales · Valuation0.3x100 (vs peers)19%
FCF yield · Valuation-11.9%0 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial77/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality3/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation57/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

KEY TRONIC CORP (KTCC). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-27.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 386.7 m USD in 2026; YoY growth -17.4%; net margin -12.4%; ROE -51.3%.

The estimated value range is 7.56–22.27 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.98 USD, the price of 1.46 USD leaves a potential of 720.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 87.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 25/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 2.1x
  • EV/Sales: 0.3x
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 6.2%
  • EBIT margin: -3.8%
  • FCF margin: -0.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -13.9%
  • Revenue growth (YoY): -17.4%
  • FCF yield: -11.9%
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Printed Circuit Boards (SIC 3672) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 27.2x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 11.9x
P/S
0.0x
vertical median 0.9x
below median (−95.5%)
P/B
0.2x
vertical median 3.0x
below median (−92.2%)
ROE
-51.3%
vertical median 12.6%
below median (−507.8%)
Net margin
-12.4%
vertical median 2.9%
below median (−526.5%)
EBIT margin
-3.8%
vertical median 4.7%
below median (−180.3%)
Revenue YoY
-17.4%
vertical median 8.1%
below median (−313.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.3x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.3%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CLSCelestica Inc.29.8 bn22.430.2%6.8%+28.5%−31% / +777%
FLEXFlex Ltd.28.5 bn27.919.1%3.4%+8.1%+31% / +303%
JBLJabil Inc26.6 bn26.566.7%2.9%+20.6%+23% / +124%
TTMITtm Technologies, Inc.7.7 bn29.314.3%7.0%+19.0%+5% / +389%
SANMSanmina Corporation7.7 bn25.711.8%2.4%+7.4%−8% / +187%
PLXSPlexus Corp.5.5 bn30.512.6%4.6%+1.8%+45% / +103%
BHEBenchmark Electronics, Inc.2.3 bn42.25.0%1.9%+0.1%+45% / +162%
CTSCts Corporation1.8 bn24.413.0%12.9%+5.2%+46% / +60%
KEKimball Electronics, Inc.619.8 m22.94.8%2.0%−3.7%−11% / +5%
NNDMNano Dimension Ltd.278.3 m—-28.7%-135.2%+77.3%−25% / −43%
ELTKEltek Ltd.42.0 m52.11.9%1.6%+11.3%−27% / −49%
KTCCKey Tronic Corp16.2 m—-51.3%-12.4%−17.4%−57% / −63%

1- and 3-year price returns: for KTCC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

    In brief

    Key Tronic is a contract electronics manufacturer with facilities in the United States, Mexico and Vietnam, having shifted from keyboards to contract manufacturing for a wide range of products. In fiscal 2026 net sales fell to 386.7 million USD on reduced legacy and end-of-life programs, but the order backlog rose to 204.1 million USD and management expects revenue growth in coming quarters.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Strong vertical integration, from engineering design to final assembly, and manufacturing capacity across several countries.
    • The order backlog grew materially over the prior year, suggesting a base of future revenue.
    • Vietnam capacity and the Arkansas center give flexibility to customers seeking production outside China.

    Weaknesses

    • The customer base is highly concentrated, and losing one major customer could significantly affect results.
    • Margins are thin, and the company reported a substantial net loss in fiscal 2026, partly due to a non-cash tax charge.
    • Write-offs of receivables and inventory followed customers in financial distress.

    Opportunities

    • Reshoring toward North America and Southeast Asia could bring new contracts for existing capacity.
    • New programs in medical devices and data centers could extend revenue in the coming years.
    • Recovering receivables and restoring delivery capacity could improve cash flow.

    Threats

    • Trade tariffs and changes to regional agreements could raise component and product costs.
    • Supply chain credit restrictions could delay production and shipments.
    • Larger competitors may offer lower prices on high-volume work, which could erode market share.

    Risks

    • Customer concentrationhigh

      A small number of customers generate most sales, and a reduction in orders from any of them could seriously affect results 1.

    • Liquidity and financinghigh

      Credit restrictions delayed shipments, and the company is evaluating additional sources of capital, which could limit growth if problems persist 2.

    • Tariff policymedium

      Tariffs on products from China and Mexico can raise costs or reduce demand, and the USMCA arrangement could be amended or cancelled 1.

    • Financially distressed customersmedium

      Customer bankruptcies led to write-offs of receivables and inventory, and recovery of those amounts could be uncertain 1.

    • Taxes and deferred tax assetsmedium

      A valuation allowance against deferred tax assets weighed heavily on the net loss and could affect a return to profit if taxable income does not materialize 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • The order backlog and recent program wins could support revenue growth, as management suggests for coming quarters 2.
    • Restructuring lowered costs and lifted gross margin in the fourth quarter, and US and Vietnam capacity could attract customers relocating production 2.
    • If the reshoring trend persists, the company could benefit from its vertical integration and presence in several countries 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • Sales fell in fiscal 2026 and gross margin stayed below prior levels, which could pressure results if the recovery is delayed 1.
    • Customer concentration and financing constraints could postpone shipments and revenue from new programs 12.
    • The market is highly competitive, and larger rivals could offer better prices, reducing the company's share 1.

    What to watch

    • Revenue trajectory and the return to profitability management has guided toQ1 2027
    • Pace of new program ramps in Arkansas and Vietnam2027
    • Release of working capital and resolution of credit constraintsnext 10-K
    • Effects of tariffs and the refund process for IEEPA tariffs2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Sept 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

    The business

    Key Tronic Corporation, organized in 1969 as a Washington corporation, began as a maker of computer keyboards but moved into contract manufacturing for a wide range of products. The company offers integrated engineering design, precision plastic molding, sheet metal fabrication, printed circuit board assembly and full product assembly, plus worldwide logistics 1. Its main operations are in the United States, Mexico and Vietnam, with procurement support from China, where manufacturing was wound down in fiscal 2026 1.

    Customers are original equipment manufacturers, and the company typically does not enter long-term volume purchase contracts. The five largest customers accounted for 39% of net sales in fiscal 2026, down from 48% a year earlier, showing a high concentration of the customer base 1. The company aims to diversify through new programs in medical devices, industrial equipment, automotive and data centers 1.

    Recent strategy focuses on relocating production and reducing dependence on China: Vietnam capacity was doubled in fiscal 2026, and a new technology and research center was opened in Arkansas 1. Management believes these investments support demand amid tariffs and supply chain diversification 1.

    Segments

    Industrial and consumer

    The industrial sector represented 58% of revenue in fiscal 2026, up from 52% a year earlier, while consumer fell from 38% to 24% 1. The shift reflects the loss of end-of-life programs as well as gains from new industrial contracts.

    Communication and medical

    Communication rose from 6% to 11% of revenue, and medical from 3% to 4% in fiscal 2026 1. Production growth in Vietnam, tied in particular to medical devices, contributed to the fourth-quarter increase 2.

    Market context

    The contract electronics manufacturing industry is intensely competitive, and Key Tronic holds less than 1% of the potential global market 1. The trend of contract manufacturing returning to North America, driven by tariffs and logistics problems, could favor companies with facilities in Mexico and the United States. Tightening credit and liquidity across the supply chain affected the whole sector in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 2.

    Industry revenue depends on customer programs with short life cycles, and demand can drop abruptly. Inflation and US trade policy remain important external factors for the company's costs and margins 1.

    Trends

    • Reshoring of manufacturing to North Americatailwind

      Tariffs and US-China political tensions could keep moving contract work to Mexico, Vietnam and the United States, where Key Tronic has facilities 1.

    • Trade tariffs and uncertaintyheadwind

      Tariffs on components imported from China and Mexico can raise costs, and the USMCA arrangement is not assured over the long term 1.

    • Credit constraints in the supply chainheadwind

      Financing constraints delayed about 10 million USD of shipments in the fourth quarter, which could weigh on revenue if they persist 2.

    • New program winstailwind

      A rising number of active quotes and new awards in data center and industrial power management could support revenue growth in fiscal 2027 2.

    Competitive position

    The market is shaped by many competitors that are larger and have greater financial resources and comparable international capabilities. Competition can take the form of lower prices on high-volume programs, and customers may choose in-house manufacturing 1. Key Tronic defends its position through its international footprint, responsiveness, vertical integration and cost.

    The company's ability to hold share depends on keeping costs competitive and investing in capacity. A risk is that competitors copy non-proprietary processes after development work, reducing its cost advantage 1.

    • Jabil Inc.JBL

      Global electronics manufacturing services provider and direct competitor for contract production work.

    • Flex Ltd.FLEX

      International contract electronics manufacturer active in similar production regions.

    • Sanmina CorporationSANM

      EMS provider with operations in several countries, competing for OEM programs.

    • Benchmark ElectronicsBHE

      Contract manufacturer active in industrial and medical sectors, competing in similar segments.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Key Tronic Corporation · 24 Sept 2026
    2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Key Tronic Corporation · 27 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.