olivLaw · US equity research
Kyivstar Group Ltd. KYIV
Radiotelephone Communications · SIC 4812 · Vertical: Radiotelephone Communications (SIC 4812)
Kyivstar Group is a telecom and digital holding company running Ukraine's leading mobile and broadband provider, listed on Nasdaq since August 2025. It is expanding its digital business through acquisitions while the war continues to affect its infrastructure and subscriber base, with 2025 revenue of 1157 million USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Kyivstar Group Ltd. (KYIV) stock was 13.62 USD (+2.18% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.1 bn USD, P/E 23.9 on diluted EPS of 0.57 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.75, 52-week range 9.33–16.17 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 60.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.70 – 13.92
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.86 · band width 17.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 13.06 / 12.90
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.13 / 0.05
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +8.4% | −1.1% | +9.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +3.0% | −0.5% | +3.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +7.2% | +4.4% | +2.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +4.9% | +12.3% | −7.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +1.6% | +13.5% | −11.9 pp | +18.3% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +17.4% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 7.3, median 15.0, max 22.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 915.0 m | 919.0 m | 1.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +0.4% | +25.9% |
| Net income | 281.0 m | 283.0 m | 124.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +0.7% | −56.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.36 | 1.37 | 0.57 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +0.7% | −58.4% |
| net % | 30.7% | 30.8% | 10.7% |
| Free cash flow | 317.0 m | 268.0 m | 311.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 455.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 1.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 2.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.39x
- ROE
- 10.4%
- ROA
- 5.7%
- FCF margin
- 26.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 915.0 m | 919.0 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 363.0 m | 348.0 m | 274.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 82.0 m | 82.0 m | 75.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 346.0 m | 347.0 m | 198.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 65.0 m | 64.0 m | 74.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 281.0 m | 283.0 m | 124.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.36 | 1.37 | 0.57 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 206.9 m | 206.9 m | 216.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 425.0 m | 674.0 m | 455.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 40.0 m | 37.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 3.0 m | 3.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 1.2 bn | 692.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 15.0 m | 14.0 m | 128.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 257.0 m | 283.0 m | 363.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 103.0 m | 141.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 887.0 m | 498.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 887.0 m † | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 230.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 413.0 m | 430.0 m | 558.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 96.0 m | 162.0 m | 247.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 317.0 m ≈ | 268.0 m ≈ | 311.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -327.0 m | -132.0 m | -150.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -88.0 m | -37.0 m | -626.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
42% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.61 – 8.75 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E5.61 – 8.75 (Mid 7.74)5 companies used · median multiple 13.6x · quartiles 9.8x – 15.4xAD, IHS, SPOK, TIGO, TMUS
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.7% | 50 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 250.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.7x | 33 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 49 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.9x | 29 (vs peers) | 25% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 9.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality75/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation60/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Kyivstar Group Ltd. (KYIV). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 25.9%; net margin 10.7%; ROE 10.4%.
The estimated value range is 5.61–8.75 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.74 USD, the price of 13.62 USD leaves a potential of -43.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -75.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 41.7% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 250.8%
- FCF yield: 9.9%
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 23.9x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Radiotelephone Communications (SIC 4812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. | 380.0 bn | 326.5 | 9.4% | 16.2% | −3.8% | +17% / +29% |
| TMUST-Mobile Us, Inc. | 168.6 bn | 15.4 | 19.4% | 12.0% | +8.5% | −24% / +6% |
| VEONVEON Ltd. | 146.1 bn | 263.4 | 48.5% | 13.4% | +9.9% | +48% / +294% |
| TIGOMillicom International Cellular SA | 13.0 bn | 9.8 | 36.2% | 22.6% | +0.3% | +45% / +357% |
| KYIVKyivstar Group Ltd. | 3.1 bn | 23.9 | 10.4% | 10.7% | +25.9% | +2% / unavailable |
| ADArray Digital Infrastructure, Inc. | 2.9 bn | 5.4 | 18.3% | 250.8% | +58.3% | −32% / −27% |
| IHSIHS Holding Ltd | 2.8 bn | 20.2 | — | 9.1% | +3.6% | +19% / +82% |
| SPOKSpok Holdings, Inc. | 252.6 m | 13.6 | 12.8% | 13.9% | +1.5% | −9% / −28% |
| SIDUSidus Space, Inc. | 18.7 m | — | -27.0% | -970.3% | −27.6% | +49% / −82% |
| CHAICore Ai Holdings, Inc. | 3.6 m | — | -1,196.1% | -57.2% | +58.6% | −93% / −100% |
| VODVodafone Group Public Ltd Co | — | — | -7.4% | -11.1% | +2.0% | +31% / +80% |
| SKMSK Telecom Co., Ltd. | — | — | 10.8% | 7.0% | +1.9% | +55% / +39% |
| TUTelus Corp | — | — | 7.1% | 5.4% | +0.6% | −30% / −49% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for KYIV from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 8.39 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 14.76 Total return 8% · Per year 8% | 22.14 Total return 63% · Per year 63% |
| 3 years | 9.95 Total return -27% · Per year -10% | 19.52 Total return 43% · Per year 13% | 31.88 Total return 134% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 11.80 Total return -13% · Per year -3% | 25.81 Total return 90% · Per year 14% | 45.91 Total return 237% · Per year 28% |
- Exit P/E± 4.88
- Net margin± 3.42
- Annual revenue growth± 2.55
- Annual dilution± 0.29
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (31 Jul 2026), 6-K (28 May 2026), 6-K (26 May 2026), 6-K (14 May 2026).
In brief
Kyivstar Group is a telecom and digital holding company running Ukraine's leading mobile and broadband provider, listed on Nasdaq since August 2025. It is expanding its digital business through acquisitions while the war continues to affect its infrastructure and subscriber base, with 2025 revenue of 1157 million USD 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- War and infrastructurehigh
War could lead to destruction or occupation of the network, and part of the infrastructure remains non-functional in occupied areas 1.
- Going concernhigh
The auditor included an emphasis paragraph on the uncertainty over the company's ability to continue as a going concern, linked to the war and sanctions 1.
- Nationalisation and confiscationhigh
Ukrainian nationalisation rules and restrictions on foreign-owned companies could affect operations 1.
- Reputation and shareholder sanctionsmedium
Association with sanctioned individuals linked to the LetterOne shareholder could lead to lost partners and delays in deals 1.
- Operating and energy costsmedium
Higher electricity tariffs and generator and battery costs could compress margins 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Trend in mobile subscribers and ARPUQ1 2027
- Status of sanctions and fund-transfer restrictions2027
- Expansion of the 5G pilot and satellite connectivity2026
- Going-concern disclosure in the next annual reportnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 16 Mar 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (31 Jul 2026), 6-K (28 May 2026), 6-K (26 May 2026), 6-K (14 May 2026).
The business
Kyivstar Group Ltd. is a telecom and digital holding company whose main activity is run through JSC Kyivstar, which forms a single reportable segment 1. Revenue splits between telecommunications, about 89% of 2025 revenue, and digital services, about 11% 1. At end-2025 the company served more than 22.4 million mobile customers and about 1.2 million home internet customers 1.
Segments
Mobile and fixed telecom
The telecom segment offers voice, data and mobile internet on 2G, 3G and 4G/LTE networks, plus fixed connectivity for corporates and consumers, with LTE population coverage of 96.2% at end-2025 1. The company also launched direct-to-cell satellite connectivity with Starlink, and a 5G pilot began in Lviv in January 2026 1.
Digital services
Digital services include Kyivstar TV, Helsi (digital health), MyKyivstar, Kyivstar.Tech (IT and big data) and Uklon, a ride-hailing and delivery platform acquired in 2025 1. The Tabletki.ua acquisition, completed after antitrust approval, extends the digital platform into medicines 1.
Market context
Trends
- Multiplay strategytailwind
The company aims to grow its multiplay customer share and ARPU through bundles of internet, voice and digital services, which could lower churn 1.
- War and subscriber migrationheadwind
The war has caused subscriber losses and migration abroad, and the company responded with offers such as Roam Like at Home 1.
- Energy and security cost increasesheadwind
Electricity, generator and network protection costs have risen, and war-risk insurance has not been available for Ukrainian operations since 2023 1.
- Digital expansion through M&A and AImixed
Acquisitions in ride-hailing, health and pharmacy, along with a Ukrainian language model project, could create synergies with the mobile base 1.
Competitive position
The analysed source does not detail Ukrainian competitors; it notes that Kyivstar leads the market by mobile subscribers, which suggests a dominant position but also competitive pressure in digital services 1. The risk environment, including sanctions and the reputation of the majority shareholder, also shapes the company's ability to work with outside partners 1.
- VEONVEON
The majority shareholder, with a history of operating in emerging markets and the source of the assets Kyivstar was demerged from 1.
- Starlink (SpaceX)
A partner in direct-to-cell satellite connectivity that could also serve as a connectivity alternative where terrestrial networks are unavailable 1.
- Other Ukrainian mobile operators
The source does not name them; it implies rivals in the mobile market given Kyivstar's subscriber leadership 1.
- Local digital health and services providers
Helsi, Uklon and Tabletki.ua compete with other local digital services, which the source does not detail 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Lived in occupation, fought against Ukraine. Now, Kyiv says, Russia won’t take them back.Euromaidan Press (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Train services on one of Kyiv's metro lines suspendedUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Operation Carthage: anti-corruption authorities search home of Kyiv Oblast Police chiefUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ukraine: Russian drone and missile attack sparks fire in Kyiv regionEuronews — News (EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Debris from Russian drone falls in Kyiv's Pecherskyi districtUkrinform (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Emergency power cuts introduced in parts of KyivUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Woman injured in Russian strike on Kyiv on 10 October dies in hospitalUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- One man injured in Russian attack on Kyiv OblastUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ucraina pierde aliați-cheie în Congresul SUA, pe măsură ce democrații preiau controlul (analiză Kyiv Post)Digi24 · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Russian drone attacks injure 4 in Dnipropetrovsk and Kyiv oblasts, spark fires at infrastructure facilitiesKyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Kyiv Urges ‘Cast-Iron’ Security Guarantees, Patriot Missiles as Ukraine and Allies Advance Postwar PlansKyiv Post · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ukraine War News Today - Top Stories and Breaking Updates from Kyiv PostKyiv Post · 05 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ukraine war latest: Kyiv suffers worst water outage of full-scale war after mass Russian assaultKyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Russian strikes cause Kyiv’s worst water outage of full-scale warKyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Law enforcement detains 2 female suspects linked to clashes near Kyiv, media reportsKyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Democrats took Congress overnight, but Ukraine isn’t their top-three priority: What midterm win really means for KyivEuromaidan Press (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Russian forces launch propaganda Shahed drone with territorial recruitment centre leaflets at KyivUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Russian attacks disrupt power in Kyiv, while death toll in a stricken village rises to 40The Hindu — International · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Ukrainian news outlet Kyiv Independent hit by suspected Russian cyberattackThe Record (Recorded Future) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Clashes in Kyiv Oblast's Borshchahivka: details about four injured soldiers found in house revealedUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)31 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)31 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)12 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Kyivstar Group Ltd. · 16 Mar 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.