olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Sidus Space, Inc. SIDU

Radiotelephone Communications · SIC 4812 · Vertical: Radiotelephone Communications (SIC 4812)

1.04USD−0.95% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Sidus Space is a space and defense technology company headquartered on Florida's Space Coast that designs and builds satellites, offers AI computing for orbit and mission operations services. The company is moving from technology development to commercialization after strengthening its balance sheet through two share offerings in 2026, ending the second quarter with a cash position of 166.5 million USD. Revenue remains small and losses persistent, so the timing depends on converting contracts into recurring revenue.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Sidus Space, Inc. (SIDU) stock was 1.04 USD (−0.95% on the day), with market capitalisation 18.7 m USD, beta 2.25, 52-week range 0.63–6.20 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 583.1 k USD (−53.8% YoY), net income of -4.8 m USD, diluted EPS -0.06 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
18.7 m USD
shares as of 14 Nov 2022
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.69 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-65.91%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.25
Volatility (1y) 168%
52-week range
0.636.20

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
23.4
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.90 – 1.51
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 50.2%
SMA 50 / 200
1.69 / 2.64
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.19 / -0.20
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−40.6%−1.1%−39.5 pp—
3 months−49.8%−0.5%−49.3 pp—
6 months−68.2%+4.4%−72.6 pp—
Year to date−66.9%+12.3%−79.2 pp—
1 year−2.8%+13.5%−16.3 pp+6.6%
3 years−88.8%+76.4%−165.2 pp+29.1%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−83.2%
26 May 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−99.9%
14 Dec 2021 → 01 Dec 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
583.1 k USD
−53.8% YoY
Net income
-4.8 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.06
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-820.0% / -976.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue1.9 m826.0 k238.5 k1.3 m1.3 m586.3 k359.4 k583.1 k
Cost of revenue1.8 m1.6 m1.9 m2.3 m2.6 m2.3 m1.4 m1.2 m
Gross profit38.2 k-750.1 k-1.6 m-1.0 m-1.3 m-1.7 m-1.1 m-629.7 k
SG&A3.2 m4.3 m4.4 m4.3 m4.3 m9.3 m4.4 m5.1 m
Operating income-3.2 m-5.1 m-6.1 m-5.3 m-5.6 m-11.0 m-5.5 m-5.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation636.4 k ≈677.4 k934.7 k1.1 m ≈1.2 m ≈1.1 m611.6 k608.0 k ≈
Interest expense642.4 k324.2 k75.4 k2.5 k1.1 k111.1 k879879
Pre-tax income-3.9 m-5.7 m-6.4 m-5.6 m-6.0 m-11.4 m-5.2 m-4.8 m
Net income-3.9 m-5.7 m-6.4 m-5.6 m-6.0 m-11.4 m-5.2 m-4.8 m
Diluted EPS-0.93-0.68 ≈-0.35-0.31-0.24-0.31 ≈-0.08-0.06
Operating cash flow-2.7 m ≈-5.5 m-3.2 m-4.6 m ≈-6.2 m ≈-4.1 m-5.6 m-3.5 m ≈
Capex1.0 m ≈2.4 m3.0 m1.4 m ≈1.4 m ≈2.4 m3.7 m3.6 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202020212022202320242025
Revenue1.8 m1.4 m7.3 m6.0 m4.7 m3.4 m
Revenue YoYunavailable−22.0%+417.7%−18.2%−21.6%−27.6%
Net income-1.5 m-3.7 m-12.8 m-14.3 m-17.5 m-29.5 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailable-0.34-74.80-23.44-3.60-1.19
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-85.4%-265.9%-176.0%-240.3%-375.0%-871.0%
Free cash flow-1.6 m-2.7 m-14.2 m-19.0 m-23.3 m-26.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
unavailable USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
50.6 m USD
Total assets
66.1 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
3.37x
ROE
-79.5%
ROA
-56.8%
FCF margin
-778.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
6.0 m
2024
4.7 m
2025
3.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
4.3 m
2024
6.1 m
2025
9.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
1.6 m
2024
-1.5 m
2025
-5.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

SG&A
2023
14.2 m
2024
14.2 m
2025
22.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-12.5 m
2024
-15.7 m
2025
-28.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
217.1 k
2024
2.2 m
2025
4.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-12.3 m ≈
2024
-13.5 m ≈
2025
-23.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
747.4 k
2024
1.3 m
2025
90.1 k

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-14.3 m
2024
-17.5 m
2025
-29.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Income tax
2023
—
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Net income
2023
-14.3 m
2024
-17.5 m
2025
-29.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-23.44
2024
-3.60
2025
-1.19

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
620.0 k
2024
4.9 m
2025
24.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 05 Apr 2022verified

Receivables
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Mar 2023verified

Inventories
2023
858.6 k
2024
255.7 k
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2025verified

Current assets
2023
9.2 m
2024
22.3 m
2025
50.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
9.6 m
2024
14.9 m
2025
14.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
398.1 k
2024
398.1 k
2025
398.1 k

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Total assets
2023
19.4 m
2024
37.7 m
2025
66.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
4.7 m
2024
2.1 m
2025
3.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
12.2 m
2024
14.2 m
2025
15.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
12.2 m
2024
14.2 m
2025
15.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Equity
2023
7.1 m †
2024
23.5 m †
2025
50.6 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-11.7 m
2024
-15.8 m
2025
-18.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Capex
2023
7.2 m
2024
7.5 m
2025
8.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-19.0 m ≈
2024
-23.3 m ≈
2025
-26.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-7.7 m
2024
-7.5 m
2025
-8.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
18.4 m
2024
37.8 m
2025
53.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Apr 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
19.6 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2024verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-27.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-22.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
13.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
-166.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-859.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-983.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-970.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-1,081.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-27.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-24.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-14.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
-244.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
33.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
unavailable
input data missing

Cash

Operating cash flow
-19.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
11.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-30.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
144 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
18.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-65.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
6.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-163.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

1.04 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 18.7 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
18.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-27.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-970.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-27.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 14 Nov 2022
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Aug 2026
verified 677derived 65

Score by group

33% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Radiotelephone Communications (SIC 4812)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-970.3%0 (vs peers)19%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-22.6%0 (on a fixed band)25%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-244.0x0 (on a fixed band)19%
Current ratio · Balance sheet33.3x100 (on a fixed band)13%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-163.4%0 (on a fixed band)25%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

SIDUS SPACE, INC. (SIDU). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -27.6%; net margin -970.3%; ROE -27.0%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 33.3x

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -970.3%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -22.6%
  • Interest coverage: -244.0x
  • FCF yield: -163.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Radiotelephone Communications (SIC 4812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 17.8x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 4.7x
P/S
6.6x
vertical median 2.2x
above median (+195.7%)
P/B
0.1x
vertical median 2.7x
below median (−96.3%)
ROE
-27.0%
vertical median 10.8%
below median (−349.3%)
Net margin
-970.3%
vertical median 11.4%
below median (−8,624.7%)
EBIT margin
-983.7%
vertical median 20.5%
below median (−4,893.9%)
Revenue YoY
-27.6%
vertical median 2.8%
below median (−1,088.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.0x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 2.7%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CHTChunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd.380.0 bn326.59.4%16.2%−3.8%+17% / +29%
TMUST-Mobile Us, Inc.168.6 bn15.419.4%12.0%+8.5%−24% / +6%
VEONVEON Ltd.146.1 bn263.448.5%13.4%+9.9%+48% / +294%
TIGOMillicom International Cellular SA13.0 bn9.836.2%22.6%+0.3%+45% / +357%
KYIVKyivstar Group Ltd.3.1 bn23.910.4%10.7%+25.9%−4% / unavailable
ADArray Digital Infrastructure, Inc.2.9 bn5.418.3%250.8%+58.3%−32% / −27%
IHSIHS Holding Ltd2.8 bn20.2—9.1%+3.6%+19% / +82%
SPOKSpok Holdings, Inc.252.6 m13.612.8%13.9%+1.5%−9% / −28%
SIDUSidus Space, Inc.18.7 m—-27.0%-970.3%−27.6%−3% / −89%
CHAICore Ai Holdings, Inc.3.6 m—-1,196.1%-57.2%+58.6%−93% / −100%
SKMSK Telecom Co., Ltd.——10.8%7.0%+1.9%+55% / +39%
TUTelus Corp——7.1%5.4%+0.6%−30% / −49%
VODVodafone Group Public Ltd Co——-7.4%-11.1%+2.0%+31% / +80%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SIDU from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Sidus Space is a space and defense technology company headquartered on Florida's Space Coast that designs and builds satellites, offers AI computing for orbit and mission operations services. The company is moving from technology development to commercialization after strengthening its balance sheet through two share offerings in 2026, ending the second quarter with a cash position of 166.5 million USD 3. Revenue remains small and losses persistent, so the timing depends on converting contracts into recurring revenue.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Vertical integration of design, manufacturing, computing and mission operations within one organization, with quality certifications for space and defense production.
    • Balance sheet strengthened through 2026 share offerings and no outstanding term bank debt, giving room to execute in the near term.
    • Patent portfolio and contracts with government and defense agencies, including a large-ceiling IDIQ award.

    Weaknesses

    • Small and volatile revenue, with large net losses and negative gross margins in the periods reviewed.
    • Short operating history makes it difficult to assess the ability to execute production at scale and planned launches.
    • Dependence on a limited number of suppliers for space-grade components and on third parties for launches.

    Opportunities

    • Commercialization of AI computing products and the Fortis VPX platform could produce more predictable recurring revenue than project contracts.
    • Government and defense demand for SOSA-aligned hardware and space services could grow if programs advance as planned.
    • Partnerships with satellite operators and data companies could open access to new customers in Europe and other regions.

    Threats

    • A delayed or failed launch could damage the company's reputation and mission revenue.
    • Competition from larger and better-funded space and defense companies could reduce market share.
    • The need for additional funding could lead to further share issuances diluting shareholders if results do not improve.

    Risks

    • Persistent net losseshigh

      The company has not reached profitability, and operating expenses could rise before revenue offsets its investments.

    • Dependence on launcheshigh

      Mission success depends on successful launches, and launch failures could lead to total loss of customer payloads.

    • Dilution from share issuancesmedium

      Additional funding could be raised through new share issuances, which could reduce the stake of existing shareholders.

    • Contract timingmedium

      Revenue is tied to milestones and customer acceptance, and delays could move revenue outside expected periods.

    • Supplier dependencelow

      Space-grade components come from a limited number of sources, which could affect production if disruptions occur.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If AI computing products and modular platforms reach commercialization, revenue could become more predictable and less dependent on one-off projects.
    • The strengthened balance sheet could allow the company to execute its programs without issuing additional capital in the near term.
    • Contracts with government and defense agencies could provide a stable revenue base if programs advance on schedule.

    What would break the thesis

    • Revenue declined in 2025 and in the second quarter of 2026, and if the trend persists, losses could remain high for longer.
    • The company could need additional funding, which could reduce per-share value for existing shareholders.
    • Competition from companies with far greater resources could limit the company's ability to win major contracts.

    What to watch

    • Quarterly revenue trajectory and whether growth resumes after the second quarter 2026 declineQ3 2026
    • Execution of the Lonestar contract and the Pathfinder mission on LizzieSat2027
    • Development of operating expenses and net loss against the commercialization plannext 10-K
    • Any further share issuances and the level of available cashQ1 2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Sidus Space describes its activity as the vertical integration of satellite design, manufacturing, computing and AI technology, mission operations and space-based data solutions 1. The company operates a modular satellite platform called LizzieSat, with three launches between 2024 and March 2025, and develops computing products such as the Orlaith AI Ecosystem and the Fortis VPX family 1. Revenue comes from satellite platform sales, payload hosting, engineering services, defense hardware manufacturing and, emerging, subscriptions to space-derived data and analytics 1.

    The business model relies on fixed-price or milestone-based contracts, so revenue timing can fluctuate between periods 1. The company presents itself as transitioning from technology development to commercialization, and in 2026 the focus is on turning its technical and financial base into recurring commercial and government revenue 3.

    Net losses are significant, and operating expenses are expected to rise as the company moves toward production-level manufacturing and more frequent launches 1. Capital markets financing remains central to the strategy, and 2026 data show this channel was used heavily 3.

    Segments

    Satellite platforms and missions

    The LizzieSat platform, with configurations from 100 kg to 800 kg, includes variants for low Earth, geostationary and lunar orbits, and the Lonestar lunar satellite manufacturing contract was extended to a total value of 120 million USD 1. Revenue here is most sensitive to launch timing and milestone deliveries.

    AI computing and defense hardware

    The FeatherEdge, Cielo and Fortis VPX products target on-board data processing and defense applications, built to SOSA and MOSA architectures 1. In 2026 the company added the Fortis VPX Maxima platform, integrated on its next LizzieSat spacecraft 3.

    Manufacturing and engineering services

    Manufacturing covers precision machining, additive manufacturing and assembly under ISO 9001 and AS9100 certifications, and a ten-year IDIQ contract with an Army depot covers cable and mechanical assembly fabrication 1.

    Market context

    The company describes space as a growing economy, supported by falling launch costs, satellite technology advances and demand for space-based data and analytics 1. The small satellite market is however capital-intensive, with long development cycles and regulatory dependencies 1. The company's market estimates rest on internal and third-party sources and may prove incorrect 1.

    In 2026, a shift toward higher defense and intelligence budgets could support demand for dual-use hardware, in line with the company's description of rising demand 13. The timing of government contracts nonetheless remains unpredictable.

    Trends

    • Shift from development to commercializationmixed

      The company has said it is moving from technology development to production and commercial revenue, which could reduce the weight of research spending if revenue grows.

    • Demand for dual-use hardwaretailwind

      Demand for SOSA-aligned hardware usable in both civil and military markets has grown according to the company, which could support revenue from computing products.

    • Launch and contract timingheadwind

      Revenue depends on launches and milestone achievement, and delays can shift revenue recognition between periods, as seen in the decline in 2025 and in the second quarter of 2026 13.

    • Access to capital and dilutionmixed

      The 2026 share offerings strengthened the balance sheet but increased shares outstanding, which could reduce per-share value for existing shareholders if further financing becomes necessary 13.

    Competitive position

    Sidus competes with commercial space companies such as Spire, BlackSky, Hawkeye 360, Satellogic, Iceye, Loft Orbital, York Space Systems, Apex and K2Space, as well as larger aerospace and defense contractors 1. The company's stated advantage is its vertical integration and ability to rapidly integrate customer technologies 1.

    Differentiation depends on executing the integrated model in practice, and without comparable revenue and margin figures, the advantage remains largely as asserted by the company 1.

    • Spire GlobalSPIR

      Space-based data and analytics provider, named by the company among commercial competitors in orbital data.

    • BlackSkyBKSY

      Near real-time geospatial intelligence company, cited in the space data competitor group.

    • Satellogic

      Earth observation satellite operator, named among the company's commercial competitors.

    • York Space Systems

      Satellite and space platform manufacturer, cited among satellite manufacturing competitors.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    • Current report29 Oct 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report09 Oct 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report06 Oct 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers
    • Current report29 Sept 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers
    • Current report14 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report13 Aug 2026
    • Current report24 Jul 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report21 Jul 2026
      Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report22 Jun 2026
      Shareholder vote
    • Current report28 May 2026
      Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Sidus Space, Inc. · 01 Apr 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Sidus Space, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Sidus Space, Inc. · 14 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.