olivLaw · US equity research
The Mosaic Company MOS
Agricultural Chemicals · SIC 2870 · Vertical: Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870)
Mosaic is the world's largest producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, with mining and processing operations in the US, Canada and Brazil. In 2026 it faces pressure from sulfur and ammonia costs, lower volumes and quarterly losses, which makes its production and investment adjustments relevant. Net sales in the second quarter of 2026 were 2,824.1 million USD, and the company reported a net loss of 273 million USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Mosaic Company (MOS) stock was 21.62 USD (+17.37% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.9 bn USD, dividend yield 2,035,154.67%, beta 0.72, 52-week range 17.27–31.36 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.1 bn USD (−10.2% YoY), net income of -72.1 m USD (−117.5% YoY), diluted EPS -0.23 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 61.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 16.79 – 20.44
- above the upper band · %B 1.32 · band width 19.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 21.80 / 23.80
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.60 / -1.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.6% | −1.1% | +2.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.6% | −0.5% | −7.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −8.2% | +4.4% | −12.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −10.3% | +12.3% | −22.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | −18.6% | +13.5% | −32.1 pp | −13.4% |
| 3 years | −35.2% | +76.4% | −111.6 pp | −48.2% |
| 5 years | −42.1% | +63.7% | −105.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn |
| Gross profit | 301.9 m | 488.4 m | 518.6 m | 552.3 m | 342.6 m | 235.6 m | 214.7 m | 84.1 m |
| SG&A | 113.5 m | 122.6 m | 167.2 m | 125.5 m | 118.6 m | 135.9 m | 131.6 m | 124.4 m |
| Operating income | 99.9 m | 338.5 m | 244.4 m | 339.8 m | -101.2 m | -372.9 m | -35.5 m | -96.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 282.1 m | 243.0 m | 261.7 m | 277.0 m | 268.2 m | 316.6 m | 292.1 m | 291.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 190.4 m | 312.8 m | 564.3 m | 599.3 m | -263.5 m | -285.9 m | -300.9 m | -103.3 m |
| Income tax | 33.8 m | 63.3 m | 146.0 m | 175.5 m | 255.0 m | -31.0 m | -33.8 m | -37.9 m |
| Net income | 169.0 m | 238.1 m | 410.7 m | 411.4 m | -519.5 m | -257.6 m | -272.8 m | -72.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.53 ≈ | 0.75 | 1.29 | 1.29 | -1.63 ≈ | -0.81 | -0.86 | -0.23 |
| Operating cash flow | 219.3 m | 42.9 m | 609.5 m ≈ | 228.5 m ≈ | -56.1 m | 104.2 m | 167.4 m ≈ | 284.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 294.1 m | 340.8 m | 304.6 m ≈ | 364.4 m ≈ | 349.6 m | 356.8 m | 320.3 m ≈ | 281.5 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 66.5 m | 70.9 m | 70.1 m ≈ | 69.5 m ≈ | 69.9 m | 70.8 m | 69.9 m ≈ | 69.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 25.0 m | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.6 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.7 bn | 12.4 bn | 19.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 11.1 bn | 12.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +29.4% | −7.1% | −2.5% | +42.3% | +54.8% | −28.4% | −18.8% | +8.4% |
| Net income | 470.0 m | -1.1 bn | 666.1 m | 1.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 1.2 bn | 174.9 m | 540.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −327.1% | unavailable | +144.8% | +119.7% | −67.5% | −85.0% | +209.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.22 | -2.78 | 1.75 | 4.27 | 10.06 | 3.50 | 0.55 | 1.70 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −327.9% | unavailable | +144.0% | +135.6% | −65.2% | −84.3% | +209.1% |
| net % | 4.9% | -12.0% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 18.7% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 4.5% |
| Free cash flow | 455.3 m | -176.8 m | 412.0 m | 898.4 m | 2.7 bn | 1.0 bn | 47.4 m | -534.6 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 276.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 759.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 483.3 m USD
- Equity
- 12.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 24.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.06x
- Current ratio
- 1.32x
- ROE
- 4.5%
- ROA
- 2.3%
- FCF margin
- -4.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.7 bn | 12.4 bn | 19.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 11.1 bn | 12.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.6 bn | 9.2 bn | 13.4 bn | 11.5 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 5.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 371.5 m | 430.5 m | 498.0 m | 500.5 m | 496.9 m | 533.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 412.9 m | 2.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 1.3 bn | 621.5 m | 821.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 847.6 m | 812.9 m | 933.9 m | 960.6 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.3 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | 5.7 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 214.1 m | 194.3 m | 168.8 m | 189.0 m | 230.0 m | 241.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 180.9 m | 2.2 bn | 4.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 315.4 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -578.5 m | 597.7 m | 1.2 bn | 177.0 m | 186.7 m | 639.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 666.1 m | 1.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 1.2 bn | 174.9 m | 540.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.75 | 4.27 | 10.06 | 3.50 | 0.55 | 1.70 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 381.3 m | 381.6 m | 356.0 m | 333.2 m | 320.7 m | 318.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.20 | 0.45 | 0.60 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.88 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 574.0 m | 769.5 m | 735.4 m | 348.8 m | 272.8 m | 276.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.7 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.5 bn | 5.3 bn | 6.6 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 11.9 bn | 12.5 bn | 12.7 bn | 13.6 bn | 13.4 bn | 14.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 19.8 bn | 22.0 bn | 23.4 bn | 23.0 bn | 22.9 bn | 24.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 769.1 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 100.0 k | 302.8 m | 224.9 m | 399.7 m | 847.1 m | 759.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.1 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.5 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 9.8 bn | 10.7 bn | 12.2 bn | 12.4 bn | 11.6 bn | 12.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | — | — | — | 317.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 824.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 412.0 m ≈ | 898.4 m ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 47.4 m ≈ | -534.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -1.3 bn | -1.3 bn | -1.3 bn | -1.3 bn | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -283.8 m | -682.1 m | -2.7 bn | -1.5 bn | -131.9 m | 452.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 75.8 m | 103.7 m | 197.7 m | 351.6 m | 270.7 m | 280.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 410.9 m | 1.7 bn | 756.0 m | 235.4 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 31 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation16
- Returns58
- Quality31
- Balance sheet62
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.63 – 15.55 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDA8.63 – 12.82 (Mid 10.37)4 companies used · median multiple 5.5x · quartiles 4.5x – 6.9xCF, ICL, NTR, UAN
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)11.56 – 15.55 (Mid 13.26)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 31/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -4.2% | 20 (vs peers) | 13% |
| Net margin · Quality | -9.4% | 50 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -14.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -44.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -2.5x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 58 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 11.9x | 29 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -11.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.1% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality31/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial58/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation16/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MOSAIC CO (MOS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.4%; net margin -9.4%; ROE -9.3%; net debt/EBITDA -0.4x.
The estimated value range is 10.10–14.18 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.82 USD, the price of 21.62 USD leaves a potential of -45.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -83.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 31/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.4x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -4.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -14.3%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -44.7%
- Interest coverage: -2.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 11.9x
- FCF yield: -11.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRNutrien Ltd. | 41.0 bn | 15.5 | 9.1% | 8.4% | +3.5% | +24% / +35% |
| CFCf Industries Holdings, Inc. | 16.9 bn | 7.9 | 46.7% | 32.3% | +19.3% | +42% / +49% |
| MOSMosaic Co | 6.9 bn | — | -9.3% | -9.4% | +8.4% | −19% / −35% |
| ICLIcl Group Ltd. | 5.9 bn | 25.4 | 3.9% | 3.2% | +4.6% | −18% / −9% |
| SMGScotts Miracle-Gro Co | 3.9 bn | 55.8 | — | 2.1% | −3.9% | +19% / +21% |
| UANCvr Partners, LP | 1.2 bn | 11.1 | — | 16.1% | +15.4% | +16% / +64% |
| AVDAmerican Vanguard Corporation | 28.8 m | — | -26.5% | -10.7% | −5.9% | −79% / −90% |
| BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp. | 16.2 m | — | -19.1% | -16.5% | −27.9% | −85% / −98% |
| SNESSenestech, Inc. | 6.6 m | — | -107.4% | -294.7% | +19.6% | −58% / −87% |
| CBUSCibus, Inc. | 6.2 m | — | -225.9% | -2,258.9% | −14.6% | −9% / −90% |
| EVGNEvogene Ltd. | 3.1 m | 0.3 | — | -220.2% | −30.9% | −66% / −95% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MOS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
Mosaic is the world's largest producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients, with mining and processing operations in the US, Canada and Brazil. In 2026 it faces pressure from sulfur and ammonia costs, lower volumes and quarterly losses, which makes its production and investment adjustments relevant. Net sales in the second quarter of 2026 were 2,824.1 million USD 2, and the company reported a net loss of 273 million USD 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading global position in phosphate and potash with integrated operations from mining to distribution 1. Access to significant phosphate rock reserves in Florida and Peru and a strong presence in Brazil 1.
- Geographic diversification, with a large share of sales outside the US, which reduces reliance on a single market 1. The Potash segment remained relatively stable in the second quarter of 2026 3.
- Access to long-term financing, shown by the 2025 bond issue and recent credit facilities 13.
Weaknesses
- Margins are sensitive to sulfur and ammonia prices, and raw material costs outpaced selling price gains in 2026 2. The company reported a net loss in the second quarter of 2026 3.
- Sales volumes fell in several segments, and commodity fertilizer production in Brazil is being idled 23.
- The company recorded impairments and losses on asset sales, including in potash and phosphate mining 12.
Opportunities
- If sulfur and ammonia supply stabilizes, production could return to normal capacity and margins could improve 3. The company has said it can resume full production rates when markets improve 3.
- The biosciences and animal feed businesses could grow, and the company announced new product launches in 2026 3.
- Lower capital spending and the sale of underperforming assets could improve returns on invested capital 3.
Threats
- US tariffs on Canadian imports and possible retaliatory measures could raise costs and reduce demand 1.
- Geopolitical conflicts can restrict exports of raw materials and raise input costs across the industry 2.
- Operational risks such as outages at production and transport facilities could affect deliveries and financial results 1.
Risks
- Sulfur and ammonia costshigh
Sharp increases in sulfur and ammonia prices can reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to finished product prices 12. The company has settled third-quarter sulfur contracts at a high level 3.
- Tariffs on Canadian potashmedium
Reintroduction of US tariffs on Canadian potash could significantly raise import costs and could reduce demand 1.
- Operational disruptionsmedium
Disruptions at mines, plants or ports can reduce production and deliveries, and the risk increases when facilities run at high rates 1.
- International and currency risksmedium
Most sales occur outside the US, and currency swings and political instability in Brazil, Canada or Peru can affect results 1.
- Losses on investments and assetslow
Changes in the value of Ma'aden shares and asset write-downs can affect net results, as seen in the second quarter of 2026 23.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If sulfur and ammonia costs ease, margins could recover quickly, given the company's leading position and available production capacity 13.
- Higher DAP and potash prices can support revenue, and lower capital spending could improve free cash flow 3.
- Geographic diversification and vertical integration could help the company navigate difficult periods in specific markets 1.
What would break the thesis
- If sulfur and ammonia remain expensive, operating losses could continue in the Phosphate segment and in Mosaic Fertilizantes 23.
- Tariffs and trade measures could reduce access to important markets, which could pressure revenue over the medium term 1.
- Asset write-downs and mine sales could signal structural issues in some operations, affecting future results 12.
What to watch
- Trend in sulfur and ammonia costs and the effect of the 705 USD per long ton sulfur contractQ3 2026
- Pace of restarting phosphate and Brazilian production after curtailmentsQ3 2026
- Completion of remaining asset sales in Brazil and the broader mine portfolio2026
- Decision on US tariffs on Canadian potash and any retaliatory measuresnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (04 Nov 2026), 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
The Mosaic Company, headquartered in Tampa, Florida and listed on the NYSE under the symbol MOS, produces and markets phosphate and potash for agriculture and animal feed ingredients 1. The company estimates it accounts for approximately 10% of global annual phosphate production and approximately 12% of potash production 1. In 2025, approximately 64% of net sales came from customers outside the US 1.
Operations rely on mines in Florida, Brazil and Peru, processing plants in Florida, Louisiana and Brazil, and potash mines in Saskatchewan and New Mexico 1. The company serves customers in approximately 40 countries 1. Its operations also include distribution in China and India and a 75% economic interest in the Miski Mayo mine in Peru 1.
During 2025 the company sold its Patos de Minas phosphate unit and its interest in the Taquari potash mine, and in April 2026 it completed the sale of the Carlsbad mine in New Mexico 12. In November 2025 it completed a 900 million USD bond offering, showing access to long-term financing while the market is volatile 1.
Segments
Phosphate
The Phosphate segment produces DAP, MAP, MicroEssentials and animal feed ingredients, with US phosphoric acid capacity of approximately 4.5 million tonnes per year 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment net sales were 1,246 million USD and the operating loss was 104 million USD, reflecting higher sulfur costs and reduced production 3.
Potash
The Potash segment sells potash mainly as fertilizer in North America and internationally, and is an important contributor to group profitability 1. In the second quarter of 2026 net sales were 650 million USD and operating earnings 195 million USD, nearly unchanged from the prior year and supported by higher average prices 3.
Mosaic Fertilizantes
The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment operates in Brazil and sells fertilizers and animal feed ingredients 1. In the second quarter of 2026 net sales were 1,034 million USD and the operating loss was 41 million USD, driven by lower volumes and the idling of commodity fertilizer production 3.
Market context
The fertilizer market is shaped by weather during application seasons, inventories, agricultural policy and international trade 1. In 2026, conflicts in the Middle East and around Russia and Ukraine restricted exports of fertilizers, sulfur and ammonia, raising input costs and reducing farmer affordability 2. Demand is seasonal, with peaks in spring and after harvest 1.
Trends
- Sulfur and ammonia costsheadwind
Higher sulfur and ammonia prices eroded gross margin in the second quarter of 2026, and the company settled third-quarter sulfur contracts at a high level 23. If supply normalizes, margin pressure could ease.
- Higher DAP and potash pricestailwind
Average DAP and MOP prices rose compared with the prior year, supporting revenue in the Phosphate and Potash segments 3. This could partly offset higher costs, while demand remains sensitive to affordability.
- US tariffs on Canadian potashmixed
Tariffs on Canadian potash imports could be reintroduced, which could raise import costs and reduce demand from US farmers 1. The company notes a risk that such tariffs may be sustained for an extended period 1.
- Production curtailments and lower capexmixed
The company reduced its 2026 capital expenditure plan and temporarily curtailed production at several facilities to protect liquidity 3. These steps may limit short-term losses but could reduce the ability to respond quickly to stronger demand.
Competitive position
Mosaic competes with other integrated phosphate and potash producers, and the sources highlight its position as the second largest integrated phosphate producer in the world and one of the largest potash producers 1. Competition is shaped by raw material costs, transport access and trade tariffs 1.
Competitors include producers in regions with different energy and sulfur costs, and cost gaps can quickly shift market position 12. Trade pressure and subsidies in other countries can affect prices in the US market, as seen with countervailing duties on Moroccan and Russian imports 1.
- Canpotex
Potash export joint venture in which Mosaic is a partner; competition and coordination are noted among operating risks 1.
- Moroccan phosphate producers
Importers into the US subject to countervailing duties, which Moroccan producers have challenged in court 1.
- Russian phosphate producers
Importers into the US subject to the same countervailing duty measure, which Russian producers have challenged 1.
- Ma'aden
Saudi mining company in which Mosaic holds shares; its market value affects the group's reported results 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- S. Korea, Turkey unearth Hellenistic-era mosaic remainsYonhap News (KR, EN) · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Mosaic Co. (MOS) Was Just Added to the Portfolio: Why the Fertilizer Stock Looks UndervaluedYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Mosaic (MOS) Bets On Enzymes While Its Core Business BleedsYahoo Finance — News · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Largest known Roman mosaic, beneath Baths of Trajan, opens to the publicHacker News · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- An American Mosaic (interactive map of ancestry census data)Hacker News · 16 Aug 2026 · EN
- Mosaic Phosphate Pains Highlight Hormuz Fertilizer DisruptionBloomberg Markets · 05 Aug 2026 · EN
- A Koi Pond Mosaic Made from 10 Pounds of 3D Printer WasteHacker News · 21 Jul 2026 · EN
- Italians bemused by Milan bull mosaic restorationBBC World News · 01 Jun 2026 · EN
- ‘What happened to the testicles?’: mockery in Milan over bull mosaic’s restorationThe Guardian World · 01 Jun 2026 · RO
- Italy restores lucky testicles on bull mosaic worn down by touristsBBC World News · 29 May 2026 · EN
- Fertilizer Maker Mosaic Loses Out as Iran Conflict Roils InputsBloomberg Markets · 11 May 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 28 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report03 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report28 Aug 2026Item 2.04
- Current report17 Aug 2026Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / The Mosaic Company · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / The Mosaic Company · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Mosaic Company · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.