olivLaw · US equity research
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company SMG
Agricultural Chemicals · SIC 2870 · Vertical: Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870)
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is North America's largest marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products, with the Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho and Tomcat brands. Net sales dipped slightly in fiscal 2025 and rose modestly in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, when the company raised its adjusted EPS guidance, completed the sale of its Hawthorne business and changed its chief executive.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) stock was 67.19 USD (+8.72% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.9 bn USD, P/E 55.8 on diluted EPS of 1.20 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.93%, beta 0.82, 52-week range 48.44–73.47 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (+1.1% YoY), net income of 112.2 m USD (−24.7% YoY), diluted EPS 1.90 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 73.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 46.61 – 67.34
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.99 · band width 36.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 55.50 / 61.89
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.91 / 1.78
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +36.8% | −1.1% | +37.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.6% | −0.5% | +2.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +6.9% | +4.4% | +2.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.1% | +12.3% | +2.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +23.4% | +13.5% | +9.8 pp | −14.9% |
| 3 years | +23.8% | +76.4% | −52.7 pp | −63.6% |
| 5 years | −59.2% | +63.7% | −122.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 27 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 414.7 m | 366.6 m | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 497.4 m | 354.4 m | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 427.3 m | 276.7 m | 842.3 m | 784.6 m | 444.8 m | 264.4 m | 849.0 m | 805.0 m |
| Gross profit | -29.5 m | 88.5 m | 542.1 m | 372.7 m | 40.9 m | 88.7 m | 610.5 m | 365.9 m |
| SG&A | 117.6 m | 113.5 m | 177.8 m | 144.8 m | 167.2 m | 106.0 m | 199.2 m | 145.6 m |
| Operating income | -216.1 m | -45.8 m | 349.7 m | 221.8 m | -167.1 m | -21.8 m | 401.8 m | 169.6 m |
| Interest expense | 33.2 m | 33.9 m | 36.6 m | 31.8 m | 26.6 m | 27.2 m | 31.3 m | 28.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -312.2 m | -90.9 m | 306.0 m | 214.0 m | -207.4 m | -63.3 m | 364.9 m | 155.2 m |
| Income tax | -68.2 m | -24.8 m | 85.3 m | 59.3 m | -43.2 m | -15.5 m | 101.6 m | 51.6 m |
| Net income | -244.0 m | -69.5 m | 217.5 m | 149.1 m | -151.9 m | -125.0 m | 238.6 m | 112.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | -4.46 ≈ | -1.21 | 3.72 | 2.54 | -2.58 ≈ | -2.16 | 4.04 | 1.90 |
| Operating cash flow | 118.5 m | -445.3 m | 188.1 m ≈ | 454.4 m ≈ | 174.1 m | -370.4 m | 220.0 m ≈ | 345.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | 16.6 m | 29.3 m | 8.3 m ≈ | 16.9 m ≈ | 42.9 m | 20.0 m | 18.6 m ≈ | 24.5 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 37.6 m | 39.2 m | 38.8 m ≈ | 38.2 m ≈ | 38.1 m | 38.3 m | 39.5 m ≈ | 38.5 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 100.0 k | 15.6 m | 2.7 m ≈ | 100.0 k ≈ | 0 | 8.3 m | 3.3 m ≈ | 500.0 k ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 85 percentile of its own 27-quarter history (min 12.5, median 22.5, max 164.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.7 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +0.8% | +18.5% | +30.9% | +19.2% | −20.3% | −9.5% | +0.0% | −3.9% |
| Net income | 63.7 m | 460.7 m | 387.4 m | 512.5 m | -437.5 m | -380.1 m | -34.9 m | 145.2 m |
| Net income YoY | −70.8% | +623.2% | −15.9% | +32.3% | −185.4% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 1.12 | 8.18 | 6.81 | 8.96 | -7.88 | -6.79 | -0.61 | 2.47 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −69.1% | +630.4% | −16.7% | +31.6% | −187.9% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 2.4% | 14.6% | 9.4% | 10.4% | -11.1% | -10.7% | -1.0% | 4.3% |
| Free cash flow | 274.3 m | 184.4 m | 495.3 m | 164.6 m | -242.5 m | 438.2 m | 583.5 m | 273.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 32.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 2.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.1 bn USD
- Equity
- -357.5 m USD
- Total assets
- 2.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.27x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 5.2%
- FCF margin
- 8.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.1 bn | 4.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 872.9 m | 657.3 m | 850.5 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Research & development | 39.7 m | 45.4 m | 45.3 m | 35.7 m | 34.6 m | 34.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| SG&A | 757.8 m | 743.5 m | 613.0 m | 551.3 m | 559.0 m | 603.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Operating income | 585.2 m | 723.0 m | -434.0 m | -174.4 m | 208.8 m | 358.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 94.7 m | 93.8 m | 105.2 m | 92.5 m | 80.6 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Nov 2024verified |
| EBITDA | 679.9 m ≈ | 816.8 m ≈ | -328.8 m ≈ | -81.9 m ≈ | 289.4 m ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Nov 2024derived |
| Interest expense | 79.6 m | 78.9 m | 118.1 m | 178.1 m | 158.8 m | 128.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 510.6 m | 677.1 m | -558.1 m | -453.3 m | -23.6 m | 221.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 123.7 m | 159.8 m | -120.6 m | -73.2 m | 11.3 m | 76.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | 387.4 m | 512.5 m | -437.5 m | -380.1 m | -34.9 m | 145.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 6.81 | 8.96 | -7.88 | -6.79 | -0.61 | 2.47 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 56.9 m | 57.2 m | 55.5 m | 56.0 m | 56.8 m | 58.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 7.36 | 2.52 | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2.64 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 16.6 m | 244.1 m | 86.8 m | 31.9 m | 71.6 m | 32.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 474.8 m | 483.4 m | 299.0 m | 304.2 m | 176.8 m | 160.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 621.9 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 880.3 m | 587.5 m | 542.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.4 bn | 980.4 m | 940.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 560.0 m | 622.2 m | 606.0 m | 610.3 m | 609.5 m | 607.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 544.1 m | 605.2 m | 254.0 m | 243.9 m | 243.9 m | 243.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 679.2 m | 709.6 m | 580.2 m | 436.7 m | 418.8 m | 352.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 3.4 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.3 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 391.0 m | 609.4 m | 422.6 m | 271.2 m | 254.7 m | 221.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 66.4 m | 57.8 m | 144.3 m | 52.3 m | 52.6 m | 57.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 950.4 m | 1.1 bn | 963.9 m | 773.7 m | 750.3 m | 739.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 2.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 702.9 m | 1.0 bn | 147.7 m | -267.3 m | -390.6 m | -357.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 558.0 m | 271.5 m | -129.0 m | 531.0 m | 667.5 m | 371.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Capex | 62.7 m | 106.9 m | 113.5 m | 92.8 m | 84.0 m | 97.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 495.3 m ≈ | 164.6 m ≈ | -242.5 m ≈ | 438.2 m ≈ | 583.5 m ≈ | 273.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | 46.9 m | -538.6 m | -283.2 m | -65.7 m | -100.4 m | -112.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -607.1 m | 494.0 m | 255.3 m | -520.1 m | -527.9 m | -294.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 411.2 m | 143.0 m | 166.2 m | 149.1 m | 151.3 m | 154.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 53.2 m | 129.3 m | 257.9 m | 9.3 m | 5.1 m | 18.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 46 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 3.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation37
- Returns72
- Quality80
- Balance sheet31
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 9.56 – 109.54 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)43.88 – 109.54 (Mid 66.59)WACC 7.3% · starting FCFF 333.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 79%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -4.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E9.56 – 18.63 (Mid 13.42)5 companies used · median multiple 11.1x · quartiles 7.9x – 15.5xCF, EVGN, ICL, NTR, UAN
- Dividend discount (DDM)34.69 – 46.66 (Mid 39.79)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 46/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.1% | 60 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 356.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -4.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.4x | 29 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 35 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 55.8x | 0 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.7% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.3% | 61 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 58.6% | 88 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet31/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns72/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation37/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Scotts Miracle-Gro Co (SMG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -3.9%; net margin 2.1%.
The estimated value range is 34.69–46.66 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 39.79 USD, the price of 67.19 USD leaves a potential of -40.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -68.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 46/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 356.3%
- FCF yield: 6.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 58.6%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -4.5%
- Interest coverage: 3.4x
- P/E (TTM): 55.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRNutrien Ltd. | 41.0 bn | 15.5 | 9.1% | 8.4% | +3.5% | +24% / +35% |
| CFCf Industries Holdings, Inc. | 16.9 bn | 7.9 | 46.7% | 32.3% | +19.3% | +42% / +49% |
| MOSMosaic Co | 6.9 bn | — | -9.3% | -9.4% | +8.4% | −12% / −40% |
| ICLIcl Group Ltd. | 5.9 bn | 25.4 | 3.9% | 3.2% | +4.6% | −18% / −9% |
| SMGScotts Miracle-Gro Co | 3.9 bn | 55.8 | — | 2.1% | −3.9% | +23% / +24% |
| UANCvr Partners, LP | 1.2 bn | 11.1 | — | 16.1% | +15.4% | +16% / +64% |
| AVDAmerican Vanguard Corporation | 28.8 m | — | -26.5% | -10.7% | −5.9% | −79% / −90% |
| BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp. | 16.2 m | — | -19.1% | -16.5% | −27.9% | −85% / −98% |
| SNESSenestech, Inc. | 6.6 m | — | -107.4% | -294.7% | +19.6% | −58% / −87% |
| CBUSCibus, Inc. | 6.2 m | — | -225.9% | -2,258.9% | −14.6% | −9% / −90% |
| EVGNEvogene Ltd. | 3.1 m | 0.3 | — | -220.2% | −30.9% | −66% / −95% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SMG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 38.04 Total return -42% · Per year -42% | 67.57 Total return 2% · Per year 2% | 102.21 Total return 54% · Per year 54% |
| 3 years | 30.51 Total return -51% · Per year -21% | 61.56 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 103.15 Total return 60% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 24.47 Total return -58% · Per year -16% | 56.10 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 104.09 Total return 66% · Per year 11% |
- Exit P/E± 15.39
- Net margin± 10.77
- Annual revenue growth± 9.68
- Annual dilution± 0.91
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is North America's largest marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products, with the Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho and Tomcat brands. Net sales dipped slightly in fiscal 2025 and rose modestly in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, when the company raised its adjusted EPS guidance, completed the sale of its Hawthorne business and changed its chief executive.
SWOT
Strengths
- The Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho and Tomcat brands are among the most recognized in the industry, supporting negotiating power and retail visibility 1.
- The company holds a leading position in North American lawn and garden and an exclusive agency for Roundup products in the U.S., which brings steady revenue 1.
- Margin improvement and lower leverage show operational discipline in execution 3.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a few large retailers means a loss of orders or inventory reductions can have a major effect on results 1.
- Sales are highly seasonal, which makes quarterly results hard to predict and exposes the company to unfavorable weather 1.
- The Hawthorne segment incurred losses and was sold, showing the difficulty of sustaining growth in some niches 2.
Opportunities
- The SMG 2.0 strategy targets channel expansion, innovation and closer consumer engagement, which could open new growth sources 3.
- Lower cash taxes after the Hawthorne sale could free cash for investment or debt reduction 2.
- Automation and AI in the supply chain could support further efficiency gains 3.
Threats
- Freight and raw material costs, influenced by geopolitical conflict, could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on to customers 3.
- Tariffs and global supply chains could raise the cost of imported raw materials and finished goods 1.
- Pesticide regulations and PFAS rules could limit certain products or raise compliance costs 1.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
Two retailers account for a major share of sales without long-term contracts, exposing the company to changes in their strategy or financial difficulty 1.
- Cost pressureshigh
Higher freight and raw material costs linked to geopolitical conflict could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on in prices 3.
- Pesticide and PFAS regulationmedium
Registration requirements and restrictions on PFAS substances could delay product launches or raise compliance costs 1.
- Seasonality and weathermedium
Most sales fall into a few months, and unfavorable weather can significantly reduce volumes in a given year 1.
- Leadership transitionlow
The move to a new CEO and the SMG 2.0 strategy carry execution risk, although the main shareholder has expressed support for the change 23.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the SMG 2.0 strategy delivers growth in new channels, the company could exceed its current guidance, given its strong brand position in lawn and garden 3.
- The Hawthorne exit could simplify the structure and reduce cash taxes, freeing cash for debt reduction 2.
- Margin gains from automation and efficiency could offset the cost pressures seen in fiscal 2026 3.
What would break the thesis
- If freight and raw material cost pressures persist, margins could fall further than the company expects 3.
- Dependence on a few large retailers means any change in orders could have a major impact on results 1.
- Economic uncertainty and tariffs could reduce demand for non-essential consumer products 12.
What to watch
- Delivery of the adjusted EPS guidance of 4.30 to 4.45 dollars per shareFiscal 2026
- Trend in freight and commodity costs after the Iran conflictQ4 fiscal 2026
- Results of the first season under the new CEO and the SMG 2.0 strategyQ1 fiscal 2027
- Reduction of leverage toward the high 3sEnd of fiscal 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
Scotts Miracle-Gro builds its business around recognized consumer brands in lawn care, gardening, soil, pest control and weed control. Reported segments in fiscal 2025 were U.S. Consumer, Hawthorne and Other, the latter mainly the consumer lawn and garden business in Canada 1. The company is also Monsanto's exclusive agent for distributing certain consumer Roundup products in the U.S., a contract that adds revenue and overhead absorption 1.
Sales are concentrated among large retailers, with The Home Depot and Lowe's as the two largest customers, and seasonality is strong, with most consumer lawn and garden sales in the second and third fiscal quarters 1. The company has no long-term sales agreements with these customers, so retailer bargaining power is an important factor 1.
In 2026 the company sold the North American Hawthorne business, now treated as a discontinued operation, for an equity stake in Vireo, and a new CEO took over and launched the SMG 2.0 strategy built on channel expansion, innovation and a new consumer engagement model 23.
Segments
U.S. Consumer
This is the largest segment, selling lawn and garden products in the U.S. In fiscal 2025 volumes in this segment were supported by soils, mulch, grass seed and spreaders, while pricing was affected by additional consumer activation investments 1. Guidance calls for low single-digit growth in U.S. Consumer net sales 3.
Other
The Other segment mainly covers the lawn and garden business in Canada. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 sales volume rose in this segment, contributing to the growth in total sales 2.
Market context
The North American lawn and garden market is highly competitive, with national and regional brands, private label products and local players 1. Seasonality and weather strongly influence demand, and consumer demand is sensitive to economic conditions and inflation 12.
The indoor and hydroponic cultivation market was hit by cannabis oversupply and lower wholesale prices, which reduced volumes in the Hawthorne segment before its sale 12. This market has been less stable than the consumer lawn and garden market 1.
Trends
- Higher freight and commodity costsheadwind
The Iran conflict raised freight and commodity costs in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, lowering the adjusted gross margin. If these pressures persist, they could limit profitability growth 3.
- Gross margin gains from automationtailwind
The company keeps expanding gross margin through supply chain automation, expanded use of AI and manufacturing investment, which could offset cost pressures 3.
- Hawthorne exit and debt reductionmixed
Selling Hawthorne removed a declining segment and produced an accounting loss, but could reduce cash taxes in coming years. A leverage ratio guided to the high 3s points to a healthier balance sheet 23.
- Macroeconomic and trade uncertaintyheadwind
Elevated interest rates, cost inflation, tariffs and the risk of recession can reduce discretionary consumer spending, which would affect sales volumes 12.
Competitive position
Primary competitors include Spectrum Brands, Central Garden & Pet, Kellogg Garden Products, Oldcastle Retail, Reckitt Benckiser, The Procter & Gamble Company, Hydrofarm and Lebanon Seaboard, along with many regional players and private label brands 1. In Canada the competition comes from Premier Tech and local companies 1.
The company competes on brand strength, innovation, quality and retailer relationships, but some competitors sell at lower prices and may have greater financial resources 1. In hydroponics, specialist competitors such as FoxFarm, Advanced Nutrients and Sun Gro are active 1.
- Spectrum Brands HoldingsSPB
Competitor in lawn, garden and pest control products, mainly in the U.S. market 1.
- Central Garden & Pet CompanyCENT
Competitor in lawn and garden products with a strong presence in retail channels 1.
- The Procter & Gamble CompanyPG
Competitor through consumer brands present in home and garden product categories 1.
- Hydrofarm Holdings GroupHYFM
Competitor in indoor cultivation and hydroponics, a segment affected by the same cannabis market pressures 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Scotts Miracle-Gro's biggest challenge: Overcoming young homeowners who are OK with dandelions in their lawnYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 31 Aug 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)25 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report15 Sept 2026Termination of a material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report03 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report27 Aug 2026Material agreement · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company · 25 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company · 05 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.