olivLaw · US equity research
Nomura Holdings, Inc. NMR
Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies · SIC 6211 · Vertical: Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies (SIC 6211)
Nomura Holdings is one of the largest financial services groups in Japan, active in wealth management, investment, markets and banking. In the year ended March 31, 2026 its net revenue rose 14.5% to 2,167.7 billion JPY, and it is now expanding its asset management business after acquiring Macquarie's asset management arm in December 2025.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) stock was 9.79 USD (+3.38% on the day), with beta 1.16, 52-week range 6.94–10.86 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 59.6
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.86 – 9.78
- above the upper band · %B 1.01 · band width 9.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.83 / 9.01
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.07 / -0.16
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +0.4% | −1.1% | +1.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −1.4% | −0.5% | −1.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | +20.0% | +4.4% | +15.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | +16.7% | +12.3% | +4.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +40.3% | +13.5% | +26.7 pp | −16.4% |
| 3 years | +137.0% | +76.4% | +60.6 pp | +61.7% |
| 5 years | +118.0% | +63.7% | +54.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 694.4 bn | 700.1 bn | 759.9 bn | 790.8 bn | 707.9 bn | 896.5 bn | 1,068.7 bn | 1,204.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +0.8% | +8.5% | +4.1% | −10.5% | +26.6% | +19.2% | +12.7% |
| Net income | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 4,318.7 bn JPY
- Financial debt
- unavailable JPY
- Net debt
- unavailable JPY
- Equity
- unavailable JPY
- Total assets
- unavailable JPY
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- unavailable
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (JPY)
Income statement · JPY
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 759.9 bn | 790.8 bn | 707.9 bn | 896.5 bn | 1,068.7 bn | 1,204.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 230.7 bn | 226.6 bn | 149.5 bn | 273.9 bn | 472.0 bn | 539.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 3,147,338.6 bn | 3,158,708.0 bn | 3,114,313.6 bn | 3,144,541.0 bn | 3,066,458.8 bn | 3,041,190.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
- 2024
- 3,144,541.0 bn
- 2025
- 3,066,458.8 bn
- 2026
- 3,041,190.1 bn
SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified
Balance sheet · JPY
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3,510.0 bn | 3,316.4 bn | 3,820.9 bn | 4,299.0 bn | 4,425.4 bn | 4,318.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 7.3 bn | 6.3 bn | 8.5 bn | 7.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 114.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 22 Jun 2026verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 1 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 8.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
8% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 8.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 19.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 100% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Nomura America Finance, LLC (NMR). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1,204.2 bn JPY in 2026; YoY growth 12.7%.
The estimated value range is 0.98–1.21 JPY per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 8.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 19.4%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies (SIC 6211) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSMorgan Stanley | 304.6 bn | 15.6 | 18.0% | — | unavailable | +14% / +144% |
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | 189.7 bn | 28.1 | 12.2% | 24.2% | +89.3% | +17% / +63% |
| SCHWSchwab Charles Corp | 161.5 bn | 16.8 | 20.3% | 38.8% | +22.0% | +1% / +52% |
| RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc. | 32.4 bn | 14.7 | 18.5% | 13.6% | +6.6% | +8% / +60% |
| SEICSei Investments Company | 12.9 bn | 18.9 | 28.9% | 28.1% | +8.1% | +34% / +85% |
| FRHCFreedom Holding Corp. | 11.9 bn | 73.8 | 11.2% | 6.5% | +9.3% | +42% / +129% |
| JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc. | 10.5 bn | 11.5 | 8.6% | 7.5% | +2.9% | −11% / +44% |
| MKTXMarketaxess Holdings Inc | 5.8 bn | 19.5 | 23.3% | 35.2% | +3.6% | +1% / −31% |
| SFStifel Financial Corp | 5.1 bn | 5.2 | 16.5% | 14.6% | +6.7% | −10% / +79% |
| IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc. | 5.0 bn | 17.1 | 91.3% | 179.4% | +23.4% | +20% / +300% |
| PIPRPiper Sandler Companies | 5.0 bn | 6.0 | 23.6% | 14.5% | +24.3% | −16% / +82% |
| MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 12.5 | 28.9% | 19.8% | +19.6% | −23% / unavailable |
| WTWisdomTree, Inc. | 3.0 bn | 38.2 | 18.7% | 13.3% | +15.4% | +81% / +208% |
| JSMNavient Holdings, Inc. | 1.5 bn | — | -2.0% | — | −15.6% | −21% / −19% |
| MTCMmtec, Inc. | 534.8 m | — | -272.7% | -6,944.3% | −56.8% | +97% / −42% |
| SIEBSiebert Financial Corp. | 75.2 m | — | -1.3% | -1.1% | +12.3% | −43% / −3% |
| DOMHDominari Holdings Inc. | 39.8 m | — | -315.4% | -51.6% | +487.0% | −65% / −28% |
| LGHLLion Group Holding Ltd. | 34.3 m | — | -27.4% | -52.8% | unavailable | −100% / −100% |
| COHNCohen & Co Inc. | 33.0 m | 1.9 | 33.3% | 5.6% | +246.2% | −33% / +66% |
| AXGSolowin Holdings, Ltd. | 26.5 m | — | -88.9% | -47.4% | +895.0% | −53% / −38% |
| GLXYGalaxy Digital Inc. | 1.4 k | — | -16.7% | -0.5% | +41.8% | −47% / unavailable |
| VIRTVirtu Financial, Inc. | — | 8.7 | 33.6% | 13.5% | +26.2% | +48% / +195% |
| NMRNomura America Finance, LLC | — | — | — | — | +12.7% | +40% / +137% |
| ETOReToro Group Ltd. | — | 10.4 | 1.4% | 1.6% | +9.5% | −43% / unavailable |
| OPYOppenheimer Holdings Inc. | — | 12.4 | 9.1% | 4.9% | +14.4% | +35% / +131% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NMR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Jun 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (22 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Oct 2026).
In brief
Nomura Holdings is one of the largest financial services groups in Japan, active in wealth management, investment, markets and banking. In the year ended March 31, 2026 its net revenue rose 14.5% to 2,167.7 billion JPY 1, and it is now expanding its asset management business after acquiring Macquarie's asset management arm in December 2025.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group holds a leading position in the Japanese equity market and is a member of many exchanges, which gives it broad market access 1.
- Diversification across four divisions lets recurring revenue from asset management offset volatility in trading 1.
- Recent growth in recurring revenue and assets under management points to a steadier revenue base than in the past 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends heavily on trading volumes and market conditions, which makes results volatile 1.
- Operating expenses have risen fast in some divisions, and in Banking profit fell against higher costs in fiscal 2026 1.
- Operations are concentrated in Japan, where earthquake risk and demographic change can weigh on demand 1.
Opportunities
- The Macquarie acquisition opens access to U.S. and European markets and supports expansion in private assets 1.
- Growing retail investment in Japan and wealth planning programs could expand the client base 1.
- Developing digital services and AI tools could reduce costs and widen the service offer to clients 1.
Threats
- Competition from online firms, FinTech companies and non-financial entrants could reduce market share and margins 1.
- Geopolitical tensions, tariffs and bond volatility can generate losses on positions and reduce activity 1.
- Tighter regulation and capital requirements could limit activity and raise compliance costs 1.
Risks
- Market and geopolitical volatilityhigh
Geopolitical events, tariffs and changes in monetary policy can affect the value of trading and investment assets and lead to significant losses 1.
- Liquidity and fundingmedium
If markets become less liquid or the credit rating falls, funding could become more costly or harder to obtain 1.
- Intense competitionmedium
Pricing pressure in investment banking and brokerage could reduce revenue from these activities 1.
- Operational and cyber riskmedium
System failures, information leaks and cyberattacks could disrupt business continuity and damage reputation 1.
- Regulation and compliancelow
Penalties for breaches of anti-money laundering rules or other regulations could be significant 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If recurring revenue from asset management keeps growing after the Macquarie acquisition, the group could rely less on trading volatility.
- Its leading position in Japan and access to global exchanges could support investment banking growth if client activity recovers.
- The 2030 return target could be reached if cost efficiency improves alongside revenue growth.
What would break the thesis
- If geopolitical and bond volatility persists, trading revenue could stay unpredictable.
- Competition from digital firms and FinTech companies could erode margins in brokerage and wealth management.
- If the Macquarie acquisition brings net outflows, the benefit to asset management could be smaller than expected.
What to watch
- Trend in recurring revenue and cost coverage ratio in Wealth ManagementQ1 2027
- Net capital flows into assets under management after integrating Macquarie2027
- Progress toward the return on equity target for fiscal 2031next 10-K
- Banking revenue trend and costs linked to the core banking system renewal2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 22 Jun 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (02 Nov 2026), 6-K (28 Oct 2026), 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (22 Oct 2026), 6-K (14 Oct 2026).
The business
The Nomura group, incorporated in Japan in 1925 and listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the NYSE, runs its business through four divisions: Wealth Management, Investment Management, Wholesale and Banking 1. Clients include individuals, corporations, financial institutions and governments. The company operates offices in Japan, the U.S., the U.K., Singapore and Hong Kong through its subsidiaries 1.
The Nomura group, incorporated in Japan in 1925 and listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the NYSE, runs its business through four divisions: Wealth Management, Investment Management, Wholesale and Banking 1. Clients include individuals, corporations, financial institutions and governments. The company operates offices in Japan, the U.S., the U.K., Singapore and Hong Kong through its subsidiaries 1.
Segments
Wealth Management
The division provides wealth management services mainly to individuals and corporations in Japan through a network of branches and online channels. In fiscal 2026 net revenue rose 12.5% to 487.9 billion JPY, and recurring revenue reached a record high 1.
Investment Management
The division manages investment funds for individual and institutional investors, including alternative assets such as private equity and private debt. Net revenue rose 34.3% to 258.5 billion JPY in fiscal 2026, and assets under management reached 136.9 trillion JPY after the Macquarie acquisition 1.
Wholesale
The Wholesale division includes Global Markets, which trades and structures financial products, and Investment Banking, which offers M&A advisory and financing. Net revenue rose 9.9% to 1,162.2 billion JPY in fiscal 2026 1.
Market context
The financial services industry is highly competitive, and Nomura describes this competition as likely to remain intense, particularly because of digitalization and the entry of non-financial companies 1. The company's revenue depends on trading volumes, capital market conditions and the performance of assets under management, all shaped by monetary policy and geopolitical developments 1.
Trends
- Growth in asset management through acquisitiontailwind
The acquisition of Macquarie's asset management business, completed in December 2025, brought in assets under management of about 25,524 billion JPY and extended the business into the U.S. and Europe 1. If net capital inflows remain positive, this could support recurring revenue.
- Monetary policy and bond volatilitymixed
Central banks have changed interest rates, and Japanese government bond yields rose during 2025 and 2026 1. Volatility can affect trading activity and funding costs, but it can also create opportunities for Global Markets.
- Digital competition and AIheadwind
Online securities firms, FinTech companies and non-financial companies are entering financial services, and service models are shifting under the influence of AI 1. These changes can add pressure on pricing and market share.
- Geopolitical instabilitymixed
Conflicts in the Middle East, U.S. tariff policy and political changes in Japan have produced episodes of market volatility 1. If these tensions persist, they could reduce liquidity and generate losses on trading positions.
Competitive position
Nomura competes with other brokers and dealers, investment banks, commercial banks with securities arms, online securities firms and FinTech companies 1. In Japan competition has intensified since deregulation in the late 1990s and the growing presence of global firms 1. Pricing pressure is most visible in investment banking and trading 1.
- Global brokers and investment banks
Global firms competing in underwriting, M&A advisory and trading, particularly in Japan and Asia 1.
- Commercial banks with securities divisions
Financial groups combining banking, brokerage and investment banking that can offer services at lower margins 1.
- Online securities firms
Digital platforms attracting individual clients through low costs and automated services 1.
- FinTech and non-financial companies
New entrants to financial services competing through technology and new service models 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Wealth management and stock trading boost Nomura profits amid uncertaintyThe Japan Times · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nomura's second-quarter profit rises 13%CNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nomura's second-quarter profit rises 13% on growing wealth management feesCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- German regulator fines Nomura over Commerzbank disclosure breachesCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nomura Fined Over Late Commerzbank Disclosures in UniCredit BidBloomberg Markets · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nomura, Daiwa CEOs flag risk AI may spoil stock market rallyThe Japan Times · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nomura, Daiwa CEOs Flag Risk AI May Spoil Stock Market RallyBloomberg Markets · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nomura Asset Management shifts focus to longer-term returnsThe Japan Times · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nomura Asset counting on Japanese market enthusiasm to expand global businessCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 07 Oct 2026 · EN
- Nomura's Wang: US Can Absorb More Rate HikesBloomberg Markets · 28 Sept 2026 · EN
- SMFG brings in Nomura exec as latest outside hire ahead of Jefferies ventureNikkei Asia · 22 Sept 2026 · EN
- Nomura warns of slowing trading revenue growth as boom coolsThe Japan Times · 17 Sept 2026 · EN
- Dovish outlier Nomura boosted Fed-hike forecasts for two reasonsCNBC — Top News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Nomura Says Three Straight BOJ Hikes Possible in Extreme CaseBloomberg Markets · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Nomura's Goto Sees Further BOJ Rate Hikes as 'Possible'Bloomberg Markets · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Nomura Says Back-to-Back ECB Hikes Could Boost Euro in Q4Bloomberg Markets · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- US stablecoin giant Circle to start settlement business with NomuraNikkei Asia · 25 Jun 2026 · RO
- Nomura Joins Sony in Powering Big Week for Japanese Bond SalesBloomberg Markets · 23 Jun 2026 · EN
- Nomura raises CEO pay to $10 million after profit hits a recordThe Japan Times · 22 Jun 2026 · RO
- Nomura's Koo: Weak Yen Tied to Slow BOJ HikesBloomberg Markets · 05 Jun 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 29 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)28 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Aug 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / Nomura Holdings, Inc. · 22 Jun 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.