olivLaw · US equity research
NOV Inc. NOV
Oil & Gas Field Machinery & Equipment · SIC 3533 · Vertical: Oil & Gas Field Machinery & Equipment (SIC 3533)
NOV Inc. is an independent supplier of equipment and technology to the global energy industry, active in drilling, completion, production and, increasingly, digitalization and automation. The company reported revenue of $8.74 billion in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 it pointed to recovering demand in several regions. Its relevance now depends on how demand for offshore equipment and technology settles within the current oil and gas cycle.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NOV Inc. (NOV) stock was 18.03 USD (−2.49% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.4 bn USD, P/E 45.2 on diluted EPS of 0.40 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.41%, beta 1.13, 52-week range 14.38–21.71 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.2 bn USD (+2.3% YoY), net income of 90.0 m USD (+114.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.25 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.3
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 17.95 – 20.20
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.03 · band width 11.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 19.82 / 19.67
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.23 / -0.16
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −7.6% | −1.1% | −6.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −7.5% | −0.5% | −7.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −10.7% | +4.4% | −15.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +15.4% | +12.3% | +3.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | +22.2% | +13.5% | +8.7 pp | +15.0% |
| 3 years | −11.4% | +76.4% | −87.8 pp | +36.7% |
| 5 years | +23.0% | +63.7% | −40.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Gross profit | 493.0 m | 447.0 m | 446.0 m | 412.0 m | 462.0 m | 379.0 m | 521.0 m | 439.0 m |
| SG&A | 286.0 m | 295.0 m | 303.0 m | 305.0 m | 300.0 m | 332.0 m | 328.0 m | 297.0 m |
| Operating income | 207.0 m | 152.0 m | 143.0 m | 107.0 m | 92.0 m | 47.0 m | 193.0 m | 142.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 88.0 m | 89.0 m | 87.0 m | 89.0 m | 90.0 m | 92.0 m | 93.0 m ≈ | 93.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 24.0 m | 22.0 m | 22.0 m | 22.0 m | 22.0 m | 22.0 m | 21.0 m | 21.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 199.0 m | 121.0 m | 115.0 m | 73.0 m | 66.0 m | 35.0 m | 157.0 m | 123.0 m |
| Income tax | 38.0 m | 47.0 m | 1.0 m | 29.0 m | 147.0 m | 15.0 m | 41.0 m | 28.0 m |
| Net income | 160.0 m | 73.0 m | 108.0 m | 42.0 m | -78.0 m | 19.0 m | 112.0 m | 90.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.41 ≈ | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.11 | -0.21 ≈ | 0.05 | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| Operating cash flow | 591.0 m | 135.0 m | 191.0 m ≈ | 352.0 m ≈ | 573.0 m | -26.0 m | 17.0 m ≈ | 41.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 118.0 m | 84.0 m | 83.0 m ≈ | 107.0 m ≈ | 101.0 m | 65.0 m | 81.0 m ≈ | 88.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 29.0 m | 28.0 m | 107.0 m ≈ | 28.0 m ≈ | 27.0 m | 33.0 m | 64.0 m ≈ | 32.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 112.0 m | 81.0 m | 69.0 m ≈ | 80.0 m ≈ | 85.0 m | 67.0 m | 63.0 m ≈ | 15.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 71 percentile of its own 17-quarter history (min 5.9, median 15.2, max 613.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.5 bn | 8.5 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.5 bn | 7.2 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +15.7% | +0.3% | −28.2% | −9.3% | +31.0% | +18.6% | +3.3% | −1.4% |
| Net income | -31.0 m | -6.1 bn | -2.5 bn | -250.0 m | 155.0 m | 993.0 m | 635.0 m | 145.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +540.6% | −36.1% | −77.2% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.08 | -15.96 | -6.62 | -0.65 | 0.39 | 2.50 | 1.60 | 0.39 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +541.0% | −36.0% | −75.6% |
| net % | -0.4% | -71.9% | -41.7% | -4.5% | 2.1% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 1.7% |
| Free cash flow | 277.0 m | 481.0 m | 700.0 m | 90.0 m | -393.0 m | -140.0 m | 953.0 m | 876.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.6 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 1.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 166.0 m USD
- Equity
- 6.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 11.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.27x
- Current ratio
- 2.42x
- ROE
- 2.3%
- ROA
- 1.3%
- FCF margin
- 10.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.1 bn | 5.5 bn | 7.2 bn | 8.6 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.7 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 434.0 m | 774.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 968.0 m | 908.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -2.4 bn | -134.0 m | 264.0 m | 651.0 m | 876.0 m | 494.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 352.0 m | 306.0 m | 301.0 m | 302.0 m | 343.0 m | 355.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -2.1 bn ≈ | 172.0 m ≈ | 565.0 m ≈ | 953.0 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 849.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 84.0 m | 77.0 m | 78.0 m | 88.0 m | 91.0 m | 88.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -2.8 bn | -230.0 m | 238.0 m | 612.0 m | 831.0 m | 375.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -242.0 m | 15.0 m | 83.0 m | -373.0 m | 196.0 m | 224.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -2.5 bn | -250.0 m | 155.0 m | 993.0 m | 635.0 m | 145.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -6.62 | -0.65 | 0.39 | 2.50 | 1.60 | 0.39 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 384.0 m | 386.0 m | 394.0 m | 397.0 m | 396.0 m | 375.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.51 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 816.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.2 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.8 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 527.0 m | 503.0 m | 490.0 m | 450.0 m | 508.0 m | 455.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 9.9 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.1 bn | 11.3 bn | 11.4 bn | 11.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 489.0 m | 612.0 m | 906.0 m | 904.0 m | 837.0 m | 831.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 5.0 m | 13.0 m | 13.0 m | 37.0 m | 30.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.7 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 5.3 bn | 5.1 bn | 5.1 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 926.0 m | 291.0 m | -179.0 m | 143.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 226.0 m | 201.0 m | 214.0 m | 283.0 m | 351.0 m | 375.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 700.0 m ≈ | 90.0 m ≈ | -393.0 m ≈ | -140.0 m ≈ | 953.0 m ≈ | 876.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -144.0 m | -196.0 m | -238.0 m | -293.0 m | -471.0 m | -362.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -259.0 m | -189.0 m | -96.0 m | -103.0 m | -406.0 m | -584.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 19.0 m | 20.0 m | 78.0 m | 79.0 m | 108.0 m | 190.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | — | 229.0 m | 315.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 53 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation51
- Returns87
- Quality59
- Balance sheet53
- Growth27
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.70 – 24.93 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)12.96 – 22.25 (Mid 16.43)WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 342.2 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 10.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA21.37 – 24.93 (Mid 23.00)4 companies used · median multiple 10.5x · quartiles 9.8x – 11.3xFET, FTI, INVX, WHD
- Peers: P/E6.81 – 11.50 (Mid 8.08)9 companies used · median multiple 20.3x · quartiles 17.1x – 28.8xBKR, FET, FLOC, FTI, INVX, LSE, OMSE, WFRD, WHD
- Dividend discount (DDM)6.70 – 9.01 (Mid 7.69)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 53/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 5.7% | 50 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 1.6% | 33 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 188.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.5% | 54 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 29 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.5x | 62 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 45.2x | 20 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.4x | 80 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.2% | 53 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 6.0% | 86 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 57.8% | 89 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet53/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth27/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality59/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns87/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation51/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
NOV INC. (NOV). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.4%; net margin 1.6%; ROE 2.3%; net debt/EBITDA 0.8x.
The estimated value range is 9.89–16.87 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 12.26 USD, the price of 18.03 USD leaves a potential of -32.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -47.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 188.8%
- Current ratio: 2.5x
- EV/EBITDA: 8.4x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 6.0%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 57.8%
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 0.0%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.8x
- P/E (TTM): 45.2x
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Oil & Gas Field Machinery & Equipment (SIC 3533) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 15 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKRBaker Hughes Company | 49.5 bn | 17.1 | 15.1% | 10.1% | −0.3% | −1% / +48% |
| FTITechnipFMC plc | 25.1 bn | 20.3 | 38.6% | 12.0% | +9.4% | +43% / +211% |
| NOVNov Inc. | 6.4 bn | 45.2 | 2.3% | 1.6% | −1.4% | +22% / −11% |
| WFRDWeatherford International plc | 6.2 bn | 15.3 | 23.0% | 8.6% | −10.8% | +15% / −5% |
| WHDCactus, Inc. | 4.3 bn | 23.6 | 14.7% | 12.0% | −4.5% | +35% / +37% |
| DNOWDnow Inc. | 2.8 bn | — | -12.4% | -4.9% | +18.8% | +10% / +54% |
| INVXInnovex International, Inc. | 1.8 bn | 37.1 | 4.5% | 4.8% | +48.0% | +16% / +15% |
| FETForum Energy Technologies, Inc. | 845.3 m | 28.8 | 9.8% | 3.5% | −3.1% | +135% / +238% |
| OISOil States International, Inc | 510.2 m | — | -16.8% | -16.5% | −3.4% | +35% / +24% |
| OMSEOMS Energy Technologies Inc. | 167.2 m | 3.3 | 43.5% | 22.0% | unavailable | −16% / unavailable |
| LSELeishen Energy Holding Co., Ltd. | 75.4 m | 55.4 | 2.9% | 2.6% | −30.0% | −14% / unavailable |
| DTIDrilling Tools International Corporation | 52.9 m | — | -2.5% | -2.0% | +3.4% | −38% / −56% |
| STAKSTAK Inc. | 27.5 m | 71.5 | 2.9% | 1.5% | +13.2% | +202% / unavailable |
| GPUSHyperscale Data, Inc. | 247.1 k | — | -159.8% | -71.0% | −4.3% | −89% / −100% |
| SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | — | — | 8.4% | 7.2% | +98.7% | +20% / +573% |
| FLOCFlowco Holdings Inc. | — | 17.7 | 12.5% | 6.4% | +41.9% | +15% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NOV from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 10.94 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 19.32 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 29.08 Total return 64% · Per year 64% |
| 3 years | 11.05 Total return -33% · Per year -13% | 21.92 Total return 29% · Per year 9% | 36.16 Total return 110% · Per year 28% |
| 5 years | 11.16 Total return -29% · Per year -7% | 24.86 Total return 51% · Per year 9% | 44.96 Total return 167% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 5.48
- Net margin± 3.84
- Annual revenue growth± 3.09
- Annual dilution± 0.32
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
In brief
NOV Inc. is an independent supplier of equipment and technology to the global energy industry, active in drilling, completion, production and, increasingly, digitalization and automation. The company reported revenue of $8.74 billion in 2025 1, and in the second quarter of 2026 it pointed to recovering demand in several regions 23. Its relevance now depends on how demand for offshore equipment and technology settles within the current oil and gas cycle 3. 123
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a leading global position in equipment and technology, with large scale in procurement, manufacturing and distribution 1. An extensive installed base favours service and spare parts revenue 1. A conservative capital structure and an investment-grade rating provide flexibility through volatility 1.
- A proprietary technology portfolio and a pioneering role in digitalization and automation differentiate it from competitors 12. Robotics and the Max platform recorded new orders in 2026 23.
- Geographic diversification is broad, with operations in 57 countries, which reduces revenue volatility tied to where activity takes place 1.
Weaknesses
- Revenue depends on the level of global drilling activity, which fell in 2025 and remains volatile 1. Dependence on oil cycles limits the predictability of results 1.
- Energy Products and Services margins fell in 2025 due to a less favourable sales mix and inflationary pressure 1.
- A significant share of revenue comes from outside the United States, exposing the company to political, currency and sanctions risks 1.
Opportunities
- If offshore and international investment rises, capital equipment orders could support revenue growth 13. The existing backlog provides visibility on part of future activity 1.
- Solutions for geothermal, offshore wind and advanced nuclear could open new markets for a company with existing industrial expertise 1.
- Growing demand for digitalization, automation and robotics could increase the value of long-term services and recurring revenue 123.
Threats
- Oil price volatility and OPEC+ decisions can reduce client investment and delay projects 1.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine can disrupt supply chains and deliveries 13.
- Adoption of technologies that reduce the amount of equipment needed could lower demand for the company's traditional products 1.
Risks
- Dependence on oilfield activityhigh
Demand for NOV products depends on active rig counts, well drilling and oil and gas prices 1. A prolonged decline in activity could affect revenue and results 1.
- Long-term contract risksmedium
Fixed-price contracts with limited escalation clauses can expose the company to cost overruns and penalties 1. Customer cancellations or delays could affect results 1.
- International exposurehigh
Operations in many countries involve political, tax, currency and sanctions risks, along with limits on repatriating income 1. These could affect results if conditions in certain countries deteriorate 1.
- Competition and intellectual propertymedium
Competitors may introduce new products, and licence disputes and patent expiry could reduce revenue 1. The company already has ongoing litigation over licence payments 1.
- Supply chain and cost pressuremedium
Raw material shortages, logistics delays and rising labour and tariff costs could affect margins and deliveries 13. The company already reported tariff pressure in 2025 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the demand recovery seen in the second quarter of 2026 is sustained, revenue and margins could improve, supported by existing backlog and new orders 23.
- A leading position in offshore and digital technology could let the company capture a larger share of long-term investment in production and automation 12.
- A conservative capital structure and the ability to return capital to shareholders could continue to support financial flexibility 13.
What would break the thesis
- If oil prices stay low or volatile, client investment could be deferred and revenue could remain below historical levels 1.
- The effect of tariff refunds on second quarter 2026 results is one-off; without them, margins could be lower 3.
- International exposure and Middle East tensions could disrupt projects and supply chains, reducing the predictability of results 13.
What to watch
- Third quarter 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $240 million to $270 millionQ3 2026
- Development of the Energy Equipment backlog and book-to-bill ratio from the $4.08 billion levelQ3 2026
- Actual collection of tariff refunds and their effect on marginsnext 10-Q
- Evolution of the Middle East situation and effects on deliveries and projects2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).
The business
NOV Inc. describes itself as an independent equipment and technology provider to the energy industry, with over 160 years of history and operations in 57 countries 1. Its strategy relies on economies of scale in procurement and manufacturing, a large installed base of equipment that generates service activity, and a conservative capital structure 1. The company operates two segments, Energy Equipment and Energy Products and Services 12. 12
The business model is described as less asset- and capital-intensive than most industry participants, allowing manufacturing capacity to ramp quickly in expansion phases and a focus on efficiency in downturns 1. The company says it has resisted vertical integration, positioning it as the largest global independent technology and equipment provider to the oilfield service sector 1. 1
NOV also pursues adjacent areas such as geothermal, offshore wind, carbon capture and advanced nuclear, leveraging its engineering expertise and supply chain management 1. The development of its Max digital platform and robotics and automation solutions appears as a central theme in recent reporting 123. 123
Segments
Energy Equipment
This segment designs, builds and supports capital equipment and integrated systems for oil and gas exploration and production, onshore and offshore, as well as for marine and renewable markets 1. Revenue comes from capital equipment sales, spare parts and services, and many products have long lead times that enter backlog 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the segment reported revenue of $1.22 billion and a backlog of $4.08 billion 23. 123
Energy Products and Services
This segment supplies tools and equipment used in drilling, intervention, completion and production, including drill bits, downhole tools, drill pipe and artificial lift systems 1. It also provides tubular inspection and coating, solids control, waste management and digital solutions 1. Segment revenue was $3.98 billion in fiscal 2025 1 and $974 million in the second quarter of 2026 3. 13
Market context
The market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, trade policy and OPEC+ decisions, which can influence both prices and the timing of capital investment 1. The company notes that the current environment makes capital investment decisions difficult, with clearer downside risk than upside in the short term 1. 1
Trends
- Rising offshore investmenttailwind
Management sees offshore as the main source of new supply, and the Energy Equipment backlog is largely weighted to offshore products 1. If offshore investment keeps growing, demand for production and installation equipment could support segment revenue 13.
- Demand recovery in second quarter 2026tailwind
The company reported improving demand in most major markets and higher capital equipment orders, which it described as the start of a synchronized global recovery 3. Whether this continues depends on how geopolitical uncertainty evolves 3.
- Geopolitical tensions and volatilityheadwind
Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, trade restrictions and price volatility have caused temporary project disruptions and supply chain issues 13. If these conditions worsen, deliveries and margins could be adversely affected 3.
- Tariffs and inflationary pressuremixed
Tariffs and raw material inflation raised costs and reduced margins in some product lines, although tariff refunds gave a one-off benefit in the second quarter of 2026 13. The net effect depends on how trade policy develops.
Competitive position
NOV operates in a highly competitive industry, competing with national, regional and foreign suppliers in each major product line 1. Some competitors may have greater financial, technical or marketing resources, and national oil companies sometimes favour local suppliers 1. NOV's advantages include global scale, its installed base and its patent portfolio 1.
Competitive risk is also linked to technological change: if new technologies make production more efficient with less equipment, demand for NOV products could decline over time 1. Expiring intellectual property rights and licence disputes may also affect its competitive position 1.
- Schlumberger (SLB)SLB
Global oilfield services and technology provider, cited among large competitors with extensive financial and technical resources 1.
- Baker HughesBKR
Energy services and equipment company active in the same drilling and production markets 1.
- HalliburtonHAL
Oilfield services provider active in the same completion and stimulation segments 1.
- National and regional equipment suppliers
Local companies in regions with local content policies that can compete in specific markets 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report28 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
- Current report28 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report15 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement09 Apr 2026
- Current report18 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NOV Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NOV Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NOV Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.