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olivLaw · US equity research

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. PANW

Computer Peripheral Equipment, NEC · SIC 3577 · Vertical: Computer Peripheral Equipment, NEC (SIC 3577)

348.04USD−0.62% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Palo Alto Networks is a global AI cybersecurity provider headquartered in Santa Clara, California. Total revenue for fiscal 2026 reached 11.5 billion dollars, up 24%, and fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue grew 34%. Guidance for fiscal 2027 points to revenue growth of 23% to 24%.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) stock was 348.04 USD (−0.62% on the day), with market capitalisation 284.7 bn USD, P/E 870.1 on diluted EPS of 0.40 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.22, 52-week range 141.67–419.91 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 3.4 bn USD (+34.5% YoY), net income of -282.0 m USD (−211.0% YoY), diluted EPS -0.34 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
284.7 bn USD
shares as of 31 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
870.1
Diluted EPS TTM 0.40 · TTM to 31 Jul 2026
E/P (TTM)
0.11%
TTM to 31 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.22
Volatility (1y) 50%
52-week range
141.67419.91

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
41.2
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
325.31 – 420.54
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.24 · band width 25.5%
SMA 50 / 200
372.17 / 272.27
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-5.22 / -1.92
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−14.4%−1.1%−13.3 pp—
3 months−4.0%−0.5%−3.6 pp—
6 months+89.5%+4.4%+85.1 pp—
Year to date+88.9%+12.3%+76.6 pp—
1 year+62.2%+13.5%+48.7 pp−16.4%
3 years+185.8%+76.4%+109.4 pp−9.4%
5 years+322.9%+63.7%+259.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−35.1%
11 Nov 2025 → 24 Feb 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−36.0%
28 Oct 2025 → 24 Feb 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+33.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 31 Jul 2026

Revenue
3.4 bn USD
+34.5% YoY
Net income
-282.0 m USD
−211.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.34
−196.0% YoY
net / operating
-8.3% / 5.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26
Revenue2.1 bn2.3 bn2.3 bn2.5 bn2.5 bn2.6 bn3.0 bn3.4 bn
Cost of revenue554.0 m599.0 m619.0 m679.0 m638.0 m685.0 m974.0 m1.1 bn
Gross profit1.6 bn1.7 bn1.7 bn1.9 bn1.8 bn1.9 bn2.0 bn2.3 bn
Research & development481.0 m505.0 m494.0 m504.0 m528.0 m511.0 m734.0 m779.0 m
Operating income286.0 m241.0 m219.0 m497.0 m309.0 m397.0 m-183.0 m172.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation84.0 m87.0 m ≈88.0 m ≈84.0 m89.0 m91.0 m ≈334.0 m ≈341.0 m
Interest expense1.0 m1.0 m1.0 m00000
Pre-tax income368.0 m325.0 m311.0 m592.0 m412.0 m549.0 m-156.0 m-269.0 m
Income tax17.0 m58.0 m49.0 m338.0 m78.0 m117.0 m21.0 m13.0 m
Net income351.0 m267.0 m262.0 m254.0 m334.0 m432.0 m-177.0 m-282.0 m
Diluted EPS0.490.380.370.36 ≈0.470.61-0.22-0.34 ≈
Operating cash flow1.5 bn557.0 m ≈628.0 m ≈1.0 bn1.8 bn554.0 m ≈871.0 m ≈1.4 bn
Capex44.0 m48.0 m ≈68.0 m ≈87.0 m84.0 m170.0 m ≈83.0 m ≈103.0 m
Share repurchases00 ≈0 ≈0———0

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 93 percentile of its own 15-quarter history (min 41.3, median 107.1, max 1,116.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue2.9 bn3.4 bn4.3 bn5.5 bn6.9 bn8.0 bn9.2 bn11.5 bn
Revenue YoY+27.6%+17.5%+24.9%+29.3%+25.3%+16.5%+14.9%+24.5%
Net income-81.9 m-267.0 m-498.9 m-267.0 m439.7 m2.6 bn1.1 bn307.0 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+486.3%−56.0%−72.9%
Diluted EPS-0.87-2.76-1.73-0.900.643.641.600.40
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable+468.8%−56.0%−75.0%
net %-2.8%-7.8%-11.7%-4.9%6.4%32.1%12.3%2.7%
Free cash flow924.4 m821.3 m1.4 bn1.8 bn2.6 bn3.1 bn3.5 bn4.1 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jul 2026

Cash
2.5 bn USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
27.5 bn USD
Total assets
48.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.87x
ROE
1.7%
ROA
0.9%
FCF margin
35.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
8.0 bn
2025
9.2 bn
2026
11.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.5 bn
2026
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
6.0 bn
2025
6.8 bn
2026
8.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Research & development
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.0 bn
2026
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Operating income
2024
684.0 m
2025
1.2 bn
2026
695.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
284.0 m
2025
343.0 m
2026
855.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
968.0 m ≈
2025
1.6 bn ≈
2026
1.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
8.3 m
2025
3.0 m
2026
0

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
988.0 m
2025
1.6 bn
2026
536.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Income tax
2024
-1.6 bn
2025
462.0 m
2026
229.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Net income
2024
2.6 bn
2025
1.1 bn
2026
307.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
3.64
2025
1.60
2026
0.40

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
708.0 m
2025
709.0 m
2026
764.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
1.5 bn
2025
2.3 bn
2026
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Receivables
2024
2.6 bn
2025
3.0 bn
2026
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Inventories
2024
115.9 m
2025
113.0 m
2026
117.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Current assets
2024
6.8 bn
2025
7.5 bn
2026
8.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
361.1 m
2025
387.0 m
2026
523.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
3.4 bn
2025
4.6 bn
2026
22.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
374.9 m
2025
763.0 m
2026
7.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Total assets
2024
20.0 bn
2025
23.6 bn
2026
48.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
116.3 m
2025
232.0 m
2026
290.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
—
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 01 Sept 2023verified

Current liabilities
2024
7.7 bn
2025
8.0 bn
2026
9.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
14.8 bn
2025
15.8 bn
2026
21.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Equity
2024
5.2 bn †
2025
7.8 bn †
2026
27.5 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2024
325.6 m
2025
668.9 m
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.7 bn
2026
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Capex
2024
157.0 m
2025
247.0 m
2026
440.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
3.1 bn ≈
2025
3.5 bn ≈
2026
4.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-1.5 bn
2025
-2.2 bn
2026
-3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-1.3 bn
2025
-779.0 m
2026
-1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
567.0 m
2025
0
2026
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
24.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
18.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
22.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-44.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
-72.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
-11.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-75.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
-14.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
18.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
70.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBITDA margin
13.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBIT margin
6.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF margin
35.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Returns

ROE
1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
ROA
0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
1.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
insufficient data

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
4.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Capital expenditure
440.0 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Free cash flow
4.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF conversion
1,339.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Cash conversion
293.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
105 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Days payables outstanding
28 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
284.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
927.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/E (TTM)
870.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Earnings yield
0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
10.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
P/S
24.8x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
69.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
FCF yield
1.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

348.04 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 284.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
284.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
870.1x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
10.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
1.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 31 Jul 2026
Net margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
24.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 31 Jul 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Jul 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Sept 2026
verified 2203derived 140

Score by group

77% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Computer Peripheral Equipment, NEC (SIC 3577)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality70.4%76 (on a fixed band)14%
EBIT margin · Quality6.1%69 (vs peers)11%
FCF margin · Quality35.8%100 (on a fixed band)11%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth18.5%74 (on a fixed band)22%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth24.5%88 (vs peers)11%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.9x4 (on a fixed band)8%
EV/Sales · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation1.4%29 (on a fixed band)17%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.4%39 (on a fixed band)6%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial4/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth79/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns39/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial29/100 · 1/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 11.5 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 24.5%; net margin 2.7%; ROE 1.7%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Gross margin: 70.4%
  • FCF margin: 35.8%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 18.5%
  • Revenue growth (YoY): 24.5%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.9x
  • FCF yield: 1.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales.

Versus the vertical median

Computer Peripheral Equipment, NEC (SIC 3577) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
870.1x
vertical median 21.6x
above median (+3,934.2%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
24.8x
vertical median 2.4x
above median (+950.7%)
P/B
10.4x
vertical median 1.7x
above median (+526.4%)
ROE
1.7%
vertical median -3.1%
above median
Net margin
2.7%
vertical median -3.0%
above median
EBIT margin
6.1%
vertical median -4.1%
above median
Revenue YoY
24.5%
vertical median 11.2%
above median (+118.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 3.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc.284.7 bn870.11.7%2.7%+24.5%+62% / +186%
FTNTFortinet, Inc.95.1 bn42.1153.1%29.0%+14.2%+59% / +146%
LOGILogitech International S.A.14.2 bn18.138.2%16.4%+6.3%−11% / +14%
CRSRCorsair Gaming, Inc.1.4 bn41.45.8%2.5%+11.9%+104% / +3%
EVLVEvolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.871.2 m—-4.9%-3.0%+40.5%−25% / +20%
MITKMitek Systems, Inc.861.4 m40.79.2%11.4%+4.4%+115% / +69%
SSYSStratasys Ltd.587.3 m—-12.7%-18.9%−3.7%−22% / −38%
IMMRImmersion Corporation237.8 m21.63.5%0.6%+11.2%+1% / +10%
RDCMRadcom Ltd.168.7 m14.311.4%16.8%+17.2%−22% / +29%
XRXXerox Holdings Corp155.0 m—-128.0%-11.9%+12.9%−58% / −92%
MYNDMynd.ai, Inc.126.0 m—-995.5%-32.2%−37.2%−56% / −97%
INVEInve Technologies, Inc.64.0 m—-10.9%-62.9%−19.3%−22% / −62%
TACTTransact Technologies Inc54.4 m—-1.3%-0.8%+18.7%+19% / −22%
LINKInterlink Electronics, Inc52.3 m—-10.5%-7.9%+1.8%−8% / −39%
WETHWetouch Technology Inc.11.6 m1.26.0%17.6%+6.8%−57% / unavailable
AIMDAinos, Inc.5.4 m—-196.3%-106,283.3%+499.0%−65% / −95%
YIBOPlanet Image International Limited——-14.4%-5.3%+3.6%+5% / unavailable
VTIXVirtuix Holdings Inc.———-543.2%+18.4%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for PANW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
213.39
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
375.54
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
563.30
Total return 62% · Per year 62%
3 years
253.12
Total return -27% · Per year -10%
496.65
Total return 43% · Per year 13%
811.16
Total return 133% · Per year 33%
5 years
300.24
Total return -14% · Per year -3%
656.82
Total return 89% · Per year 14%
1,168.07
Total return 236% · Per year 27%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 124.16
  • Net margin± 86.91
  • Annual revenue growth± 64.82
  • Annual dilution± 7.30

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Palo Alto Networks is a global AI cybersecurity provider headquartered in Santa Clara, California. Total revenue for fiscal 2026 reached 11.5 billion dollars 1, up 24% 1, and fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue grew 34% 2. Guidance for fiscal 2027 points to revenue growth of 23% to 24% 2.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company offers an integrated platform spanning network, cloud, security operations and identity, which fits the trend toward vendor consolidation 1.
  • Recurring revenue and growth in Next-Generation Security ARR give a fairly predictable revenue base 2.
  • The company serves a broad customer base across many industries, including most of the largest companies in the world 1.

Weaknesses

  • Rapid growth, including through acquisitions, places heavy demands on systems, processes and internal controls 1.
  • GAAP profit fell well below non-GAAP results in the latest quarter, showing significant gaps between reported and adjusted figures 2.
  • The company relies on manufacturing partners and limited sources of supply for its hardware products 1.

Opportunities

  • AI adoption and the need to secure AI agents and applications could expand the company's addressable market 1.
  • Recent acquisitions could strengthen the Cortex and Idira platforms if integration proceeds as planned 2.
  • The adjusted free cash flow margin target for fiscal 2028 could support higher profitability if the goal is met 2.

Threats

  • Cloud and AI providers offering native capabilities could displace parts of the company's offerings 1.
  • Economic and geopolitical uncertainty, including sanctions and export controls, could affect sales 1.
  • A major security incident could damage the company's reputation and results 1.

Risks

  • Intense competitionhigh

    The company faces rivals with large resources, and market consolidation may favor competitors with broader platforms 1.

  • Acquisition integrationhigh

    Acquisitions such as CyberArk may bring unforeseen liabilities, divert management attention and fail to deliver expected benefits 1.

  • Security incidents and product defectshigh

    A product defect or a major security incident could harm reputation, demand and financial results 1.

  • Dependence on channel partnersmedium

    Sales rely on distributors and resellers, and problems at these partners could limit distribution of products 1.

  • Trade, export and regulatory exposuremedium

    Export controls, sanctions and data protection rules could raise costs or limit access to certain markets 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Rapid growth in revenue and in Next-Generation Security ARR, together with fiscal 2027 guidance, could signal sustained demand for the company's platform 12.
  • The platformization strategy responds to customer demand for fewer vendors, which could strengthen the company's position over time 1.
  • If AI adoption keeps security high on executive agendas, the company could benefit from demand for securing AI agents and applications 2.

What would break the thesis

  • Rapid growth, including through acquisitions, can strain systems and controls, and successful integration is not assured 1.
  • Competition from cloud and AI providers offering native security could limit growth in some segments 1.
  • If economic uncertainty or technology restrictions intensify, sales cycles could lengthen and demand could weaken 1.

What to watch

  • Results for the first fiscal quarter 2027 against guidance for ARR and revenueQ1 2027
  • Integration of CyberArk and its effect on margins and headcount2027
  • Progress toward the 20 billion dollar FY30 NGS ARR target2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The Network & AI Security platform includes SASE (Prisma Access and Prisma SD-WAN), ML-Powered next-generation firewalls, cloud-delivered security services and Prisma AIRS for AI agents and applications 1. The Cortex platform covers security operations, cloud security and observability through Chronosphere 1. The Idira platform covers human, machine and AI agent identities 1.

Segments

Network & AI Security

This segment combines SASE, ML-Powered NGFWs and cloud-delivered security services. Hardware and software firewalls run the PAN-OS operating system across product sizes from small branch offices to large data centers 1. Prisma AIRS extends the portfolio to AI application and agent security 1.

Cortex

The Cortex platform includes Cortex XSIAM, Cortex XDR, Cortex XSOAR, Cortex Xpanse and Cortex Cloud, a CNAPP combined with CDR 1. With the Chronosphere integration, the segment also covers observability and the handling of large data volumes 1.

Idira

Idira unifies identity access management, privileged access management and identity governance, with emphasis on least privilege 1. The company notes that part of its product revenue comes from on-premise licenses for certain identity security offerings following the CyberArk acquisition 1.

Market context

The company competes in cybersecurity, where customers tend to consolidate vendors and providers with broader platforms may be favored 1. The company notes there is still no universally accepted definition of the identity security market 1. Recurring subscription and support revenue grew in fiscal 2026, and Next-Generation Security ARR reached 9.10 billion dollars at the end of the fourth quarter 2.

Demand is also shaped by AI adoption, which the company presents as raising cybersecurity to the top of CIO priorities 2. However, uncertain economic and geopolitical conditions, including technology restrictions, could lengthen sales cycles and shorten contract durations 1.

Trends

  • Vendor consolidation in securitytailwind

    Customers are reducing the number of point products and choosing integrated platforms, which could favor the company if its portfolio meets their needs 1.

  • AI adoption and AI agentsmixed

    Growth in AI creates demand for security of agents and AI applications, but it also introduces new risks, such as AI agents as a new class of identity 1.

  • Native security from cloud and AI providersheadwind

    Cloud infrastructure providers and advanced AI companies increasingly offer native security and observability that compete directly with the company's offerings 1.

  • Economic and geopolitical uncertaintyheadwind

    Geopolitical tensions, sanctions and export controls could slow sales, lengthen decision cycles and raise component costs 1.

Competitive position

The company states it faces intense competition and that it may lack sufficient financial or other resources to maintain or improve its position 1. The risk is heightened by customer trends toward vendor consolidation that may favor competitors with broader platforms 1.

Competitors include cloud and AI providers offering native security, along with specialists in SIEM, identity, SASE and endpoint protection 1. The company stresses that many of these functions are integrated into its platforms, yet competition remains intense 1.

  • Cloud and AI providers with native security capabilities

    Direct competition, cited in the company's risk factors 1.

  • SIEM and endpoint security vendors

    Compete with the Cortex platform in security operations 1.

  • SASE and SD-WAN vendors

    Compete with Prisma Access and Prisma SD-WAN 1.

  • Identity security vendors

    Compete with the Idira platform in a market whose definition is still unsettled 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / Palo Alto Networks, Inc. · 10 Sept 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Palo Alto Networks, Inc. · 01 Sept 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.