olivLaw · US equity research
Penumbra, Inc. PEN
Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus · SIC 3841 · Vertical: Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841)
Penumbra is a global company focused on thrombectomy, the removal of blood clots from vessels in patients with ischemic stroke, pulmonary embolism or acute limb ischemia. The company reported revenue of 1403.7 million USD in 2025 and is currently being acquired by Boston Scientific in a transaction with an enterprise value of 14.5 billion USD.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Penumbra, Inc. (PEN) stock was 322.45 USD (+0.76% on the day), with market capitalisation 12.7 bn USD, P/E 81.2 on diluted EPS of 3.97 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.51, 52-week range 225.54–359.40 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 410.1 m USD (+15.6% YoY), net income of 42.3 m USD (−7.8% YoY), diluted EPS 1.07 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 53.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 317.16 – 326.05
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.60 · band width 2.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 320.31 / 327.17
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.36 / 0.56
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.7% | −1.1% | +2.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.2% | −0.5% | +0.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −0.5% | +4.4% | −4.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +3.7% | +12.3% | −8.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +37.2% | +13.5% | +23.6 pp | −3.6% |
| 3 years | +63.0% | +76.4% | −13.4 pp | −16.1% |
| 5 years | +13.0% | +63.7% | −50.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 315.5 m | 324.1 m | 339.5 m | 354.7 m | 385.4 m | 374.8 m | 390.0 m | 410.1 m |
| Cost of revenue | 104.8 m | 108.3 m | 115.4 m | 114.3 m | 123.3 m | 121.3 m | 125.1 m | 129.8 m |
| Gross profit | 210.7 m | 215.9 m | 224.0 m | 240.4 m | 262.1 m | 253.4 m | 264.9 m | 280.3 m |
| SG&A | 147.9 m | 153.5 m | 160.0 m | 168.9 m | 181.1 m | 192.8 m | 198.5 m | 204.2 m |
| Operating income | 42.8 m | 40.4 m | 40.8 m | 48.8 m | 59.2 m | 38.2 m | 41.0 m | 50.7 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.4 m | 5.0 m | 5.5 m ≈ | 2.5 m ≈ | 4.5 m | 4.6 m | 5.6 m ≈ | 5.5 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 337.0 k | 322.0 k | 319.0 k | 338.0 k | 333.0 k | 317.0 k | 311.0 k | 305.0 k |
| Pre-tax income | 44.3 m | 43.9 m | 45.3 m | 52.3 m | 63.6 m | 41.7 m | 46.2 m | 56.3 m |
| Income tax | 10.7 m | 4.6 m | 40.0 k | 6.5 m | 16.3 m | 9.1 m | 11.4 m | 14.0 m |
| Net income | 33.7 m | 39.2 m | 45.3 m | 45.9 m | 47.3 m | 32.6 m | 34.8 m | 42.3 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.82 ≈ | 1.00 | 1.15 | 1.17 | 1.20 ≈ | 0.82 | 0.88 | 1.07 |
| Operating cash flow | 51.1 m | 49.0 m | 44.9 m ≈ | 58.3 m ≈ | 86.5 m | 87.0 m | 46.1 m ≈ | 41.5 m ≈ |
| Capex | 5.4 m | 13.5 m | 15.6 m ≈ | 16.2 m ≈ | 18.4 m | 13.7 m | 13.5 m ≈ | 15.1 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | -1.0 k | — | — | — | 0 | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 19 percentile of its own 32-quarter history (min 61.1, median 277.2, max 1,915.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 444.9 m | 547.4 m | 560.4 m | 747.6 m | 847.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +33.3% | +23.0% | +2.4% | +33.4% | +13.3% | +25.0% | +12.9% | +17.5% |
| Net income | 6.6 m | 48.5 m | -15.7 m | 5.3 m | -2.0 m | 91.0 m | 14.0 m | 177.7 m |
| Net income YoY | +41.7% | +634.1% | −132.4% | unavailable | −137.9% | unavailable | −84.6% | +1,168.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.18 | 1.34 | -0.44 | 0.14 | -0.05 | 2.32 | 0.36 | 4.52 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +38.5% | +644.4% | −132.8% | unavailable | −135.7% | unavailable | −84.5% | +1,155.6% |
| net % | 1.5% | 8.9% | -2.8% | 0.7% | -0.2% | 8.6% | 1.2% | 12.7% |
| Free cash flow | 19.2 m | 4.5 m | -58.0 m | -11.7 m | -75.0 m | 82.1 m | 147.3 m | 174.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 186.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- unavailable USD
- Net debt
- unavailable USD
- Equity
- 1.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.8 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 6.64x
- ROE
- 13.8%
- ROA
- 10.6%
- FCF margin
- 12.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 560.4 m | 747.6 m | 847.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 222.2 m | 272.2 m | 311.9 m | 375.9 m | 439.6 m | 461.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 338.2 m | 475.4 m | 535.2 m | 682.6 m | 755.0 m | 942.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 287.1 m | 378.3 m | 449.7 m | 506.5 m | 574.0 m | 663.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -38.9 m | -7.5 m | 6.1 m | 73.6 m | 9.3 m | 189.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 12.9 m | 16.4 m | 24.3 m | 27.3 m | 23.7 m | 17.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -26.1 m ≈ | 8.9 m ≈ | 30.4 m ≈ | 100.8 m ≈ | 33.0 m ≈ | 206.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | — | 1.9 m | 1.7 m | 1.7 m | 1.4 m | 1.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -38.0 m | -10.5 m | 3.9 m | 79.7 m | 20.9 m | 205.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -18.8 m | -13.1 m | 5.9 m | -11.3 m | 6.9 m | 27.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -15.7 m | 5.3 m | -2.0 m | 91.0 m | 14.0 m | 177.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.44 | 0.14 | -0.05 | 2.32 | 0.36 | 4.52 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 35.8 m | 37.9 m | 37.8 m | 39.2 m | 39.3 m | 39.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 69.7 m | 59.4 m | 69.9 m | 167.5 m | 324.4 m | 186.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 114.6 m | 133.9 m | 203.4 m | 201.8 m | 167.7 m | 190.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 219.5 m | 263.5 m | 334.0 m | 388.0 m | 406.7 m | 431.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 617.7 m | 681.5 m | 755.7 m | 915.4 m | 951.1 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 48.2 m | 58.9 m | 65.0 m | 72.7 m | 62.6 m | 117.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 8.4 m | 166.4 m | 166.0 m | 166.3 m | 165.8 m | 166.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 10.6 m | 90.6 m | 81.2 m | 71.1 m | 6.5 m | 6.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 823.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 14.1 m | 13.4 m | 26.7 m | 27.2 m | 31.3 m | 34.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 105.9 m | 123.2 m | 144.9 m | 151.1 m | 158.3 m | 183.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 185.2 m | 290.3 m | 372.0 m | 377.4 m | 382.3 m | 398.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 637.8 m | 953.9 m | 998.9 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn † | 1.4 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -33.2 m | 9.5 m | -55.7 m | 97.3 m | 168.5 m | 238.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 24.8 m | 21.2 m | 19.3 m | 15.2 m | 21.2 m | 63.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -58.0 m ≈ | -11.7 m ≈ | -75.0 m ≈ | 82.1 m ≈ | 147.3 m ≈ | 174.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -104.1 m | -21.7 m | 54.8 m | -16.1 m | 77.6 m | -404.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 134.9 m | 836.0 k | 11.6 m | 16.2 m | -87.0 m | 26.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | 0 | 0 | 100.4 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 12.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
56% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 87.50 – 153.30 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E87.50 – 153.30 (Mid 122.56)12 companies used · median multiple 30.9x · quartiles 22.0x – 38.6xBDX, BSX, DXCM, GCTK, HAE, LMAT, MMM, PODD, RMD, SYK, UTMD, WST
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.1% | 69 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 127.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 18.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 149.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 5.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 81.2x | 20 (vs peers) | 19% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.6% | 20 (on a fixed band) | 15% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality84/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation20/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Penumbra, Inc (PEN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 17.5%; net margin 10.1%; ROE 10.7%.
The estimated value range is 87.50–153.30 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 122.56 USD, the price of 322.45 USD leaves a potential of -62.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -163.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 56.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 127.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 18.3%
- Interest coverage: 149.5x
- Current ratio: 5.9x
What contradicts it
- P/E (TTM): 81.2x
- FCF yield: 1.6%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus (SIC 3841) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYKStryker Corp | 129.3 bn | 36.2 | 16.0% | 13.8% | +11.2% | −8% / +15% |
| MMM3m Company | 100.2 bn | 28.9 | 80.8% | 14.0% | +1.5% | +13% / +134% |
| BSXBoston Scientific Corporation | 66.4 bn | 19.4 | 14.3% | 16.6% | +19.9% | −55% / −18% |
| BDXBecton, Dickinson And Company | 57.0 bn | 63.2 | 3.8% | 4.0% | +8.2% | +37% / +13% |
| RMDResMed Inc. | 33.8 bn | 21.9 | 26.4% | 27.8% | +9.9% | −6% / +52% |
| DXCMDexcom, Inc. | 33.0 bn | 34.8 | 37.7% | 19.4% | +15.6% | +39% / −23% |
| WSTWest Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 28.5 bn | 45.9 | 21.2% | 18.8% | +6.3% | +47% / +17% |
| GKOSGLAUKOS Corp | 14.6 bn | — | -22.8% | -24.6% | +32.3% | +132% / +286% |
| BAXBaxter International Inc. | 13.7 bn | — | -10.5% | -6.2% | +5.7% | +41% / −27% |
| PENPenumbra, Inc | 12.7 bn | 81.2 | 10.7% | 10.1% | +17.5% | +37% / +63% |
| PODDInsulet Corporation | 11.4 bn | 30.9 | 26.0% | 12.3% | +30.7% | −50% / −13% |
| TFXTeleflex Incorporated | 6.4 bn | — | -28.9% | -45.8% | +17.2% | +31% / −34% |
| HAEHaemonetics Corporation | 5.8 bn | 62.3 | 11.2% | 7.1% | −2.0% | +57% / +58% |
| ICUIIcu Medical Inc | 4.3 bn | 144.2 | 1.4% | 1.4% | −6.3% | +16% / +97% |
| LMATLemaitre Vascular, Inc. | 2.0 bn | 30.9 | 16.8% | 25.0% | +13.5% | +6% / +67% |
| KMTSKestra Medical Technologies, Ltd. | 1.8 bn | — | -73.7% | -140.4% | +59.0% | +13% / unavailable |
| IARTIntegra Lifesciences Holdings Corp | 1.2 bn | 88.3 | 1.2% | 0.8% | +1.5% | +13% / −62% |
| SIBNSi-Bone, Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -7.7% | -6.2% | +20.2% | +28% / +32% |
| MDXGMimedx Group, Inc. | 467.0 m | — | -8.5% | -6.3% | +20.0% | −53% / −59% |
| CARLCarlsmed, Inc. | 439.3 m | — | -6,196.9% | -57.4% | +85.9% | −1% / unavailable |
| BWAYBrainsway Ltd. | 439.0 m | 224.2 | 5.6% | 7.1% | +29.0% | +28% / +258% |
| OFIXOrthofix Medical Inc. | 395.9 m | — | -13.9% | -7.4% | +2.9% | −40% / −12% |
| CTSOCytosorbents Corporation | 286.6 m | — | -336.2% | -48.9% | +4.1% | −72% / −81% |
| UTMDUtah Medical Products, Inc. | 230.6 m | 22.1 | 8.8% | 29.0% | −5.8% | +29% / −14% |
| LUNGPulmonx Corporation | 123.2 m | — | -90.3% | -47.9% | +8.0% | +75% / −74% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for PEN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 211.38 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 371.99 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 557.99 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 250.73 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 491.96 Total return 53% · Per year 15% | 803.50 Total return 149% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 297.40 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 650.62 Total return 102% · Per year 15% | 1,157.04 Total return 259% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 122.99
- Net margin± 86.09
- Annual revenue growth± 64.21
- Annual dilution± 7.23
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
Penumbra is a global company focused on thrombectomy, the removal of blood clots from vessels in patients with ischemic stroke, pulmonary embolism or acute limb ischemia. The company reported revenue of 1403.7 million USD in 2025 and is currently being acquired by Boston Scientific in a transaction with an enterprise value of 14.5 billion USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- Penumbra presents itself as the leader in thrombectomy and has a portfolio covering clots in cerebral and peripheral vessels alike.
- The company has a direct sales structure in its main markets and close relationships with specialist physicians, which supports adoption of new products.
- Revenue growth has been steady in recent years, and the embolization and access category accelerated in the latest reported quarter.
Weaknesses
- Operating profitability has been thin in the past, and in 2024 income from operations was very low because of the exit from the immersive healthcare business.
- The company relies on a relatively small number of product families, and launches of new generations can reduce sales of older ones.
- Selling, general and administrative expenses rose sharply in 2026, which compresses operating margins.
Opportunities
- The potential market outside the United States remains large, and published data suggest many cases eligible for thrombectomy in other countries.
- Becoming part of a large strategic owner could accelerate development and distribution of products if the transaction closes.
- New clinical studies and approvals for CAVT technology in neurology could open new treatment categories.
Threats
- Larger competitors have greater resources and can offer bundles or discounts that erode Penumbra's share.
- Changes in reimbursement or treatment protocols could slow adoption of the company's products.
- Currency movements affect international revenue, which is denominated mainly in euro and is not hedged.
Risks
- Failure of the Boston Scientific mergerhigh
If the transaction does not close, the company could owe a termination fee and could suffer negative effects on customer and employee relationships.
- Uncertainty during the deal periodmedium
Customers, employees and partners may defer decisions until the transaction closes, which could affect sales and retention of talent.
- Product obsolescencemedium
Product life cycles are short and competitors can launch technologies that make current products less attractive.
- Currency exposurelow
Sales outside the US are denominated mainly in euro and the company currently does not use hedging instruments, exposing results to exchange rate movements.
- Quarterly variabilitylow
Revenue, gross margin and research spending can fluctuate from quarter to quarter because of selling days, product launches and demand changes.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Revenue growth has remained solid and the embolization and access category accelerated in the latest reported quarter.
- If clinical evidence for mechanical thrombectomy keeps expanding, demand for the company's products could increase.
- Acquisition by a large group could bring additional resources for development and distribution if the transaction closes.
What would break the thesis
- Merger uncertainty could affect customer and employee behaviour before the transaction closes.
- Rising selling and administrative expenses could compress margins even as revenue grows.
- Larger competitors have scale advantages, and slower adoption of treatment protocols could limit growth.
What to watch
- Completion or failure of the Boston Scientific transaction and regulatory approvals2026
- Trends in thrombectomy and embolization and access revenue in coming quartersQ3 2026
- Changes in gross margin and SG&A spending after transaction-related costsQ3 2026
- Updates in the next annual report on markets outside the United States and currency exposurenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
The business
The product portfolio is grouped into six product families covering peripheral and neuro thrombectomy, peripheral and neuro embolization, access and neurosurgery. Many products are replaced by next generation versions, and sales of the earlier generation decline when a new product is introduced. Research and development is centred on new products and clinical studies that support regulatory submissions.
On January 14, 2026 Penumbra entered into a merger agreement with Boston Scientific, under which each share is valued at 374 USD and holders may elect cash or Boston Scientific shares. Closing is expected by the end of 2026, subject to stockholder and regulatory approvals. Until then the company operates under contractual restrictions on certain contracts and investments.
Segments
Thrombectomy
The thrombectomy segment includes the INDIGO and Penumbra systems for clots in peripheral, pulmonary, coronary and cerebral vessels. Revenue in this category was 947.9 million USD in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 it grew 12.5% year over year.
Market context
The company defines its market through several vascular conditions, including pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis, acute limb ischemia, ischemic stroke and heart attack. According to the annual report there are about 2.15 million clot incidences per year in the United States, and most do not receive mechanical thrombectomy. Outside the US the company estimates about 9.7 million ischemic strokes a year, of which 1.9 million could be treated mechanically.
Trends
- Growing adoption of mechanical thrombectomytailwind
Clinical evidence showing better functional outcomes with mechanical thrombectomy than with drug treatment alone could widen adoption of the technique. If treatment systems shift, the company could see higher procedure volumes.
- Variable treatment protocolsheadwind
Ischemic stroke protocols differ between hospitals, delaying assessment and interventional treatment. According to the company, changing these care pathways could take years.
- Reimbursement for proceduresmixed
Availability and level of reimbursement in healthcare systems determine how quickly hospitals adopt the company's products. Changes in reimbursement could speed up or slow adoption.
- Industry consolidationmixed
The Boston Scientific acquisition and other moves by competitors, including Stryker's inclusion of Inari Medical, are reshaping the market. Consolidation could create larger competitors with more resources, but also integration opportunities for Penumbra.
Competitive position
Penumbra competes with manufacturers and distributors of neuro and vascular devices, the most notable being Boston Scientific, Medtronic, Stryker (now including Inari Medical) and Terumo. The larger competitors have greater brand recognition, broader relationships with physicians and stronger financial resources. Penumbra differentiates through its CAVT technology and procedural cost-effectiveness.
There are also smaller companies with a single product or a narrow range, which can respond quickly to new technologies. If competitors launch products that are equally effective at lower cost, Penumbra's position could be affected.
- Boston ScientificBSX
Large company with substantial resources that has agreed to acquire Penumbra.
- MedtronicMDT
Major competitor in vascular and neuro devices with considerable experience and resources.
- StrykerSYK
Competitor that now includes the Inari Medical thrombectomy business.
- Terumo
Manufacturer with a presence in vascular devices, cited as one of the notable competitors.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report07 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report06 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement29 Apr 2026
- Annual report25 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Penumbra, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Penumbra, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Penumbra, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.