olivLaw · US equity research
Science Applications International Corporation SAIC
Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design · SIC 7373 · Vertical: Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design (SIC 7373)
SAIC is one of the largest pure-play technology service providers to the U.S. government, offering IT modernization, digital engineering and mission systems. More than 98% of revenue comes from U.S. government contracts, and second quarter fiscal 2027 revenue grew about 6.3%, 5.3% organic.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) stock was 150.45 USD (−0.75% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.3 bn USD, P/E 17.6 on diluted EPS of 8.56 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.25%, beta 0.31, 52-week range 82.22–152.91 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 1.9 bn USD (+6.3% YoY), net income of 102.0 m USD (−19.7% YoY), diluted EPS 2.38 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 71.2
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 124.69 – 158.06
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.77 · band width 23.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 133.92 / 111.42
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 5.90 / 4.95
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +18.6% | −1.1% | +19.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +25.1% | −0.5% | +25.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +59.4% | +4.4% | +55.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +49.5% | +12.3% | +37.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +64.5% | +13.5% | +51.0 pp | −34.8% |
| 3 years | +35.6% | +76.4% | −40.8 pp | −27.7% |
| 5 years | +66.1% | +63.7% | +2.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 31 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn |
| SG&A | 83.0 m | 94.0 m | 89.0 m | 75.0 m | 101.0 m | 85.0 m | 83.0 m | 87.0 m |
| Operating income | 160.0 m | 138.0 m | 121.0 m | 139.0 m | 128.0 m | 133.0 m | 179.0 m | 152.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 35.0 m ≈ | -79.0 m | 36.0 m | 35.0 m ≈ | 38.0 m ≈ | -79.0 m | 40.0 m | 39.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 32.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | 126.0 m | 107.0 m | 86.0 m | 108.0 m | 94.0 m | 99.0 m | 145.0 m | 119.0 m |
| Income tax | 20.0 m | 9.0 m | 18.0 m | -19.0 m | 16.0 m | 14.0 m | 30.0 m | 17.0 m |
| Net income | 106.0 m | 98.0 m | 68.0 m | 127.0 m | 78.0 m | 85.0 m | 115.0 m | 102.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 2.13 | 2.01 ≈ | 1.42 | 2.71 | 1.69 | 1.88 ≈ | 2.61 | 2.38 |
| Operating cash flow | 143.0 m ≈ | 115.0 m | 100.0 m | 122.0 m ≈ | 129.0 m ≈ | 258.0 m | 127.0 m | 146.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 9.0 m ≈ | 15.0 m | 8.0 m | 7.0 m ≈ | 9.0 m ≈ | 8.0 m | 9.0 m | 15.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 18.0 m ≈ | 18.0 m | 19.0 m | 17.0 m ≈ | 17.0 m ≈ | 17.0 m | 17.0 m | 16.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 121.0 m ≈ | 133.0 m | 142.0 m | 110.0 m ≈ | 95.0 m ≈ | 98.0 m | 188.0 m | 98.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 35 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 10.8, median 19.4, max 31.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +4.6% | +36.9% | +10.6% | +4.8% | +4.2% | −3.4% | +0.5% | −2.9% |
| Net income | 137.0 m | 226.0 m | 209.0 m | 277.0 m | 300.0 m | 477.0 m | 362.0 m | 358.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −23.5% | +65.0% | −7.5% | +32.5% | +8.3% | +59.0% | −24.1% | −1.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 3.11 | 3.83 | 3.56 | 4.77 | 5.38 | 8.88 | 7.17 | 7.70 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −22.6% | +23.2% | −7.0% | +34.0% | +12.8% | +65.1% | −19.3% | +7.4% |
| net % | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| Free cash flow | 156.0 m | 437.0 m | 709.0 m | 482.0 m | 507.0 m | 369.0 m | 458.0 m | 577.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 182.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 2.5 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.5 bn USD
- Total assets
- 5.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 1.66x
- Current ratio
- 1.20x
- ROE
- 23.3%
- ROA
- 6.8%
- FCF margin
- 7.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.1 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.3 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 792.0 m ≈ | 859.0 m ≈ | 888.0 m ≈ | 872.0 m ≈ | 892.0 m ≈ | 872.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived |
| Research & development | 6.0 m | 4.0 m | 1.0 m | 4.0 m | 12.0 m | 13.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 352.0 m | 344.0 m | 374.0 m | 373.0 m | 339.0 m | 350.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 390.0 m | 462.0 m | 501.0 m | 741.0 m | 563.0 m | 521.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 32.0 m | 37.0 m | 32.0 m | 26.0 m | 25.0 m | 30.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 422.0 m ≈ | 499.0 m ≈ | 533.0 m ≈ | 767.0 m ≈ | 588.0 m ≈ | 551.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 122.0 m | 105.0 m | 120.0 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 03 Apr 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | 271.0 m | 358.0 m | 375.0 m | 620.0 m | 428.0 m | 387.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 60.0 m | 79.0 m | 72.0 m | 143.0 m | 66.0 m | 29.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 209.0 m | 277.0 m | 300.0 m | 477.0 m | 362.0 m | 358.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 3.56 | 4.77 | 5.38 | 8.88 | 7.17 | 7.70 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 58.7 m | 58.1 m | 55.8 m | 53.7 m | 50.5 m | 46.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 171.0 m | 106.0 m | 109.0 m | 94.0 m | 56.0 m | 182.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 962.0 m | 1.0 bn | 936.0 m | 914.0 m | 1.0 bn | 853.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 78.0 m | 64.0 m | 71.0 m | 3.0 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2024verified |
| Current assets | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 108.0 m | 100.0 m | 92.0 m | 91.0 m | 104.0 m | 110.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 894.0 m | 779.0 m | 761.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 5.7 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 517.0 m | 612.0 m | 624.0 m | 567.0 m | 631.0 m | 500.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 68.0 m | 148.0 m | 31.0 m | 77.0 m | 313.0 m | 19.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 982.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 755.0 m | 518.0 m | 532.0 m | 396.0 m | 494.0 m | 609.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 46.0 m | 36.0 m | 25.0 m | 27.0 m | 36.0 m | 32.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 709.0 m ≈ | 482.0 m ≈ | 507.0 m ≈ | 369.0 m ≈ | 458.0 m ≈ | 577.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -292.0 m | -36.0 m | 314.0 m | -35.0 m | -248.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 464.0 m | -301.0 m | -493.0 m | -725.0 m | -498.0 m | -235.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 87.0 m | 86.0 m | 83.0 m | 79.0 m | 75.0 m | 70.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 34.0 m | 226.0 m | 267.0 m | 382.0 m | 558.0 m | 445.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 42 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 6.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation81
- Returns100
- Quality31
- Balance sheet22
- Growth8
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 93.45 – 523.94 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/Sales93.45 – 523.94 (Mid 249.26)12 companies used · median multiple 1.7x · quartiles 0.8x – 3.3xCACI, CREX, DAIC, FUSE, GDDY, HCTI, JKHY, KD, LDOS, OTEX, RBBN, WAY
- Peers: EV/EBITDA110.88 – 186.98 (Mid 125.06)5 companies used · median multiple 12.1x · quartiles 11.1x – 16.2xASUR, CACI, GDDY, LDOS, WAY
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 42/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 12.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 8.0% | 68 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 8.4% | 33 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | -2.9% | 24 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 3.7x | 20 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 24 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 1.2x | 67 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 9.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 8.7% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet22/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth8/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality31/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation81/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.3 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -2.9%; net margin 5.1%; ROE 25.7%; net debt/EBITDA 3.7x.
The estimated value range is 102.17–355.46 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 187.16 USD, the price of 150.45 USD leaves a potential of 24.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 19.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 42/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF yield: 9.8%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 8.7%
What contradicts it
- Gross margin: 12.6%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.0%
- Revenue growth (YoY): -2.9%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 3.7x
- Current ratio: 1.2x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design (SIC 7373) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDOSLeidos Holdings, Inc. | 16.6 bn | 12.2 | 28.2% | 8.0% | +3.1% | −29% / +26% |
| GDDYGoDaddy Inc. | 14.3 bn | 16.2 | — | 18.6% | +8.3% | −7% / +18% |
| CACICACI International Inc | 14.0 bn | 25.9 | 12.5% | 5.5% | +10.9% | +2% / +97% |
| JKHYJack Henry & Associates, Inc. | 12.6 bn | 25.7 | 24.0% | 19.8% | +7.1% | +3% / +13% |
| IONQIonQ, Inc. | 11.3 bn | — | -60.8% | -553.3% | +201.9% | −40% / +142% |
| OTEXOpen Text Corp | 6.4 bn | 10.3 | 16.2% | 12.3% | +1.5% | −21% / −34% |
| SAICScience Applications International Corporation | 6.3 bn | 17.6 | 25.7% | 5.1% | −2.9% | +65% / +36% |
| WAYWaystar Holding Corp. | 5.7 bn | 42.9 | 3.7% | 10.7% | +16.5% | −20% / unavailable |
| KDKyndryl Holdings, Inc | 3.7 bn | 48.9 | 6.8% | 0.5% | +0.2% | −35% / −7% |
| AGYSAgilysys, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 78.5 | 13.6% | 12.9% | +15.9% | −0% / +42% |
| NTCTNetscout Systems Inc | 2.8 bn | 23.3 | 7.5% | 13.7% | +4.5% | +42% / +90% |
| AURAurora Innovation, Inc. | 2.6 bn | — | -45.7% | -13,328.6% | unavailable | −3% / +86% |
| PONYPony AI Inc. | 2.1 bn | — | -10.3% | -148.9% | +20.0% | −65% / unavailable |
| OSPNOneSpan Inc. | 872.9 m | 13.2 | 26.8% | 27.5% | +0.0% | +94% / +136% |
| TLSTelos Corporation | 378.2 m | — | -14.9% | -8.1% | +52.2% | −12% / +23% |
| SLPSimulations Plus, Inc. | 374.2 m | 46.7 | 6.2% | 9.9% | +13.1% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SMRTSmartrent, Inc. | 307.5 m | — | -7.6% | -11.0% | −12.9% | −6% / −48% |
| ASURAsure Software, Inc. | 293.6 m | — | -1.9% | — | +24.3% | +22% / +22% |
| VEEAVeea Inc. | 281.2 m | — | — | -2,491.9% | +56.6% | −55% / −98% |
| RBBNRibbon Communications Inc. | 275.9 m | 22.5 | 5.0% | 2.3% | +1.3% | −46% / −28% |
| KDKKodiak AI, Inc. | 220.7 m | — | — | -4,259.6% | −74.6% | −82% / unavailable |
| AIOSAIOS Tech Inc. | 138.9 m | — | -208.9% | -4,359.1% | −98.5% | −87% / −86% |
| MRLNMerlin, Inc. | 91.5 m | — | — | — | unavailable | −92% / unavailable |
| CSPICSP Inc | 75.4 m | — | -1.5% | -1.2% | +6.4% | −35% / −40% |
| HCTIHealthcare Triangle, Inc. | 69.2 m | — | -57.4% | -66.3% | +18.8% | −97% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SAIC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 88.15 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 156.37 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 236.24 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 74.82 Total return -50% · Per year -20% | 150.33 Total return 1% · Per year 0% | 250.87 Total return 68% · Per year 19% |
| 5 years | 63.51 Total return -57% · Per year -16% | 144.52 Total return -3% · Per year -1% | 266.40 Total return 79% · Per year 12% |
- Exit P/E± 37.58
- Net margin± 26.31
- Annual revenue growth± 23.02
- Annual dilution± 2.21
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
SAIC is one of the largest pure-play technology service providers to the U.S. government, offering IT modernization, digital engineering and mission systems. More than 98% of revenue comes from U.S. government contracts, and second quarter fiscal 2027 revenue grew about 6.3%, 5.3% organic 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Long-standing relationships with government customers, some lasting more than 20 years, support recurring demand for services 1.
- Scale and prime integrator position on complex programs allow resources to go into repeatable solutions 1.
- A workforce largely holding security clearances and ISO and CMMI maturity certifications support credibility in bids 1.
Weaknesses
- Almost complete dependence on U.S. government contracts exposes the company to budget decisions and policy shifts 1.
- A high share of cost-reimbursable and T&M contracts, which are generally less profitable than fixed-price contracts 1.
- Backlog relative to revenue was below one in the quarter ended July 31, 2026, which indicates thinner near-term coverage 3.
Opportunities
- New defense, border security and digital modernization funding could increase demand for the company's services 1.
- Recent recompete and expansion awards in intelligence and border work could strengthen medium-term revenue 3.
- Outsourcing of some traditionally governmental functions to private firms could open new business opportunities 1.
Risks
- Dependence on the U.S. governmenthigh
Almost all revenue comes from government contracts, so cuts in spending or shifts in priorities could affect financial results 1.
- Budget delays and continuing resolutionshigh
If Congress fails to pass budgets on time, contract awards may be delayed or funded at lower levels, affecting revenue 12.
- Cost-reimbursable and T&M contractsmedium
Contract types with lower margins could reduce profitability if costs are misestimated or not recovered 1.
- Estimates in revenue recognitionmedium
A significant share of revenue depends on estimates of total costs at completion, and adjustments could affect future results 1.
- Government audits and investigationsmedium
Audits, cost adjustments and investigations by the government could affect profitability, cash flows and growth prospects 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If new defense and security funds turn into contracts, the company could see stronger demand for its programs 1.
- Organic growth in the quarter ended July 31, 2026 and the raised fiscal 2027 guidance point to good execution on existing contracts 3.
- Long customer relationships and scale could help the company win large recompete and new contracts 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the federal budget stalls again, contracts could be postponed and unreimbursed costs could rise 12.
- A backlog-to-revenue ratio below one in the latest quarter could signal slower growth in the near term 3.
- Competitive pressure and new procurement rules could reduce margins or limit access to some contracts 1.
What to watch
- Delivery against fiscal 2027 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA marginQ3 2027
- Outcome of budget negotiations for fiscal 2027 and any continuing resolutions2027
- Development of backlog and book-to-bill ratio after recent awardsQ3 2027
- Final form of conflict-of-interest and federal procurement rulesnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
SAIC provides technical, engineering and mission IT services, mainly to the Department of War, intelligence agencies and U.S. civilian agencies, through approximately 1,700 active contracts and task orders and about 23,000 employees 1. The company covers the design, development, integration and operation of customers' IT infrastructure, from cloud modernization and cybersecurity to weapon systems and simulation 1. Since January 31, 2026, the business has been organized into three business groups, a restructuring meant to simplify the company and focus it on growth 2.
More than 98% of revenue comes from contracts with the U.S. government, directly or as a subcontractor, and about 52% is attributed to the Department of War 1. The remainder comes mainly from intelligence and other federal agencies, as well as commercial, state and local customers 1. Operations are reported in two segments, Defense and Intelligence and Civilian 1.
The company recently reshaped its portfolio through the acquisition of SilverEdge Government Solutions in October 2025 and the 2023 sale of its logistics business, to focus on long-term growth areas 1. The revenue model depends largely on contract type, with a high share of cost-reimbursable contracts 1.
Segments
Market context
The market is shaped by U.S. government spending on defense, intelligence and civilian programs, and contracts are awarded through competitive procedures, with growing use of IDIQ and GSA multi-award vehicles 1. Federal budgets remain sensitive to legislative delays and continuing resolutions, which can postpone awards 12. Infrastructure and climate spending packages add opportunities in digital modernization and cybersecurity 1.
Higher defense and border spending could support demand if recently approved funds reach programs the company covers 1. Heightened competition and price pressure, along with a smaller addressable market due to small business set-asides, limit growth potential 1.
Trends
- Budget funding after shutdownsmixed
The February 2026 appropriations package funded most agencies through September 30, 2026, after a DHS shutdown that ended in April 2026 2. Further delays or another shutdown could postpone contracts and increase unreimbursed costs 1.
- Additional defense and border fundingtailwind
The July 2025 reconciliation package adds new funds for defense and border security that remain available through 2029 and could increase demand for naval operations and border surveillance work 1.
- Competitive contracting and price pressureheadwind
Government increasingly uses IDIQ, GSA and other multi-award contracts, which has led to more competition and pricing pressure 1. This could limit margins, especially on fixed-price contracts 1.
- Acquisition and regulatory reformmixed
Executive orders revising the FAR and rules on organizational conflicts of interest could restrict participation in some bids and add compliance burdens 1. The effect on profitability remains uncertain and depends on the final rules 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with larger firms with more name recognition and financial resources, with smaller specialized firms focused on particular areas, and at times with the government's own capabilities 1. Multi-award contracts and competitive bidding have increased pricing pressure, and losing a protest can delay revenue 1.
SAIC's advantages include its scale, prime integrator position and long customer relationships, which could help it win large and complex contracts 1. Future competitiveness depends on program execution and the ability to price competitively in new service models 1.
- Larger government services firms
The filing refers to competitors with greater name recognition and financial resources without naming them 1.
- Smaller specialized firms
Smaller competitors concentrate resources on particular technical areas, as described in the annual report 1.
- Government in-house capabilities
The U.S. government may compete with its own capabilities on some programs, per the risks the company describes 1.
- Other multi-award IDIQ and GSA contract holders
Firms that win multi-award contracts compete for subsequent task orders, which intensifies competition 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Science Applications (SAIC) Grew Revenue 6% but Posted a 0.6 Book-to-Bill Ratio. Is the $22B Backlog Enough?Yahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Science Applications International Q2 Earnings Call HighlightsYahoo Finance — News · 31 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 04 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report02 Nov 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Aug 2026
- Current report31 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report08 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report01 Jun 2026
- Current report01 Jun 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-30 · SEC / Science Applications International Corporation · 16 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-31 · SEC / Science Applications International Corporation · 31 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Science Applications International Corporation · 31 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.