olivLaw · US equity research
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. WMS
Plastics Foam Products · SIC 3086 · Vertical: Rubber and plastics products (SIC 308x)
Advanced Drainage Systems is a leading maker of water management products for stormwater and onsite wastewater, using recyclable plastic. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 net sales rose 20.6% to 1.0 billion USD, with the NDS acquisition completed in February 2026 contributing materially.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) stock was 144.07 USD (+5.93% on the day), with market capitalisation 10.9 bn USD, P/E 24.9 on diluted EPS of 5.79 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.51%, beta 1.20, 52-week range 125.19–175.38 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q1 2027): revenue of 1.0 bn USD (+20.6% YoY), net income of 168.5 m USD (+17.1% YoY), diluted EPS 2.19 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 70.1
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 121.31 – 140.60
- above the upper band · %B 1.18 · band width 14.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 130.65 / 143.26
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 2.36 / 0.85
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +11.3% | −1.1% | +12.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.7% | −0.5% | −3.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −3.1% | +4.4% | −7.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −0.5% | +12.3% | −12.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +6.1% | +13.5% | −7.4 pp | +16.1% |
| 3 years | +27.9% | +76.4% | −48.5 pp | +27.2% |
| 5 years | +16.3% | +63.7% | −47.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q1 2027 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 782.6 m | 690.5 m | 615.8 m | 829.9 m | 850.4 m | 693.4 m | 676.8 m | 1.0 bn |
| Gross profit | 293.9 m | 241.6 m | 226.3 m | 330.4 m | 340.1 m | 259.2 m | 237.7 m | 408.0 m |
| Operating income | 187.4 m | 126.9 m | 117.0 m | 205.7 m | 223.3 m | 136.8 m | 53.3 m | 254.5 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 44.8 m | 47.8 m | 49.6 m | 50.2 m | 54.7 m | 51.5 m | 59.8 m | 62.2 m |
| Pre-tax income | 171.2 m | 108.6 m | 99.2 m | 189.4 m | 208.2 m | 122.7 m | 39.4 m | 229.0 m |
| Income tax | 40.9 m | 27.1 m | 23.2 m | 46.7 m | 52.4 m | 30.6 m | 5.4 m | 53.7 m |
| Net income | 130.4 m | 81.2 m | 77.2 m | 143.9 m | 156.0 m | 93.6 m | 32.9 m | 168.5 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.67 | 1.04 | 0.99 ≈ | 1.84 | 1.99 | 1.19 | 0.42 ≈ | 2.19 |
| Operating cash flow | 166.9 m ≈ | 189.9 m ≈ | 41.2 m | 275.0 m | 234.9 m ≈ | 269.3 m ≈ | 39.9 m | 260.4 m |
| Capex | 54.5 m ≈ | 54.2 m ≈ | 46.5 m | 52.6 m | 58.4 m ≈ | 85.7 m ≈ | 53.0 m | 57.2 m |
| Dividends paid | 12.5 m ≈ | 12.4 m ≈ | 12.4 m | 14.0 m | 14.1 m ≈ | 14.0 m ≈ | 14.0 m | 15.3 m |
| Share repurchases | 20.7 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 92.0 m | 233.2 m |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 46 percentile of its own 28-quarter history (min 13.9, median 25.1, max 47.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +4.1% | +20.9% | +18.5% | +39.7% | +10.9% | −6.4% | +1.0% | +5.0% |
| Net income | 77.8 m | -193.2 m | 224.2 m | 271.3 m | 507.1 m | 509.9 m | 450.2 m | 426.5 m |
| Net income YoY | +25.4% | −348.4% | unavailable | +21.0% | +86.9% | +0.6% | −11.7% | −5.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.22 | -3.21 | 2.59 | 3.15 | 6.08 | 6.45 | 5.76 | 5.44 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +23.2% | −363.1% | unavailable | +21.6% | +93.0% | +6.1% | −10.7% | −5.6% |
| net % | 5.6% | -11.5% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 16.5% | 17.7% | 15.5% | 14.0% |
| Free cash flow | 108.3 m | 238.5 m | 373.5 m | 125.8 m | 540.9 m | 534.1 m | 368.5 m | 569.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 223.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.6 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 4.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.86x
- Current ratio
- 2.42x
- ROE
- 24.9%
- ROA
- 10.4%
- FCF margin
- 18.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 690.1 m | 800.4 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| SG&A | 267.6 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 May 2021verified |
| Operating income | 344.5 m | 411.9 m | 719.3 m | 732.1 m | 657.4 m | 619.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 66.4 m | 141.8 m | 145.1 m | 154.9 m | 183.3 m | 216.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 410.9 m ≈ | 553.7 m ≈ | 864.5 m ≈ | 887.0 m ≈ | 840.7 m ≈ | 835.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 312.3 m | 383.5 m | 657.1 m | 666.8 m | 589.5 m | 559.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Income tax | 86.4 m | 110.1 m | 150.6 m | 159.0 m | 141.1 m | 135.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Net income | 224.2 m | 271.3 m | 507.1 m | 509.9 m | 450.2 m | 426.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.59 | 3.15 | 6.08 | 6.45 | 5.76 | 5.44 | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 71.6 m | 72.9 m | 83.3 m | 79.0 m | 78.2 m | 78.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.36 | 0.44 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.72 | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 195.0 m | 20.1 m | 217.1 m | 490.2 m | 463.3 m | 223.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 301.0 m | 494.3 m | 464.0 m | 464.2 m | 488.3 m | 543.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Current assets | 743.0 m | 871.9 m | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 504.3 m | 619.4 m | 733.1 m | 876.4 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 599.1 m | 610.3 m | 620.2 m | 617.2 m | 720.2 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 482.0 m | 431.4 m | 407.6 m | 352.7 m | 448.1 m | 848.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 171.1 m | 225.0 m | 210.1 m | 254.4 m | 218.0 m | 237.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 7.0 m | 19.5 m | 14.7 m | 11.9 m | 9.9 m | 5.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 782.2 m | 908.7 m | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 318.3 m | 391.2 m | 378.8 m | 439.6 m | 398.4 m | 509.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 833.5 m | 909.7 m | 841.6 m | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 452.2 m | 274.9 m | 707.8 m | 717.9 m | 581.5 m | 819.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Capex | 78.8 m | 149.1 m | 166.9 m | 183.8 m | 212.9 m | 249.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 373.5 m ≈ | 125.8 m ≈ | 540.9 m ≈ | 534.1 m ≈ | 368.5 m ≈ | 569.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -77.9 m | -198.8 m | -214.5 m | -155.7 m | -447.9 m | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -354.6 m | -251.1 m | -296.3 m | -284.3 m | -157.7 m | 156.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 32.2 m | 37.0 m | 39.6 m | 44.0 m | 49.7 m | 56.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 292.0 m | 575.0 m | 207.3 m | 69.9 m | 92.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 May 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 55 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 10.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet64
- Valuation54
- Quality83
- Growth0
- Returns70
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 124.78 – 212.02 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDA124.78 – 145.59 (Mid 141.48)7 companies used · median multiple 13.5x · quartiles 12.1x – 13.9xATR, AWI, CMT, KRT, MYE, NWL, SWIM
- Peers: P/E130.11 – 212.02 (Mid 151.23)7 companies used · median multiple 26.1x · quartiles 22.5x – 36.6xATR, AWI, CMT, DSWL, ENTG, KRT, MYE
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate9.46 – 12.72 (Mid 10.85)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 55/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 18.3% | 75 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 14.0% | 80 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 122.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -0.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 50 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 24.9x | 63 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 13.7x | 38 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.1% | 63 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.5% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 10.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet64/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns70/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation54/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. (WMS). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.1 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 5.0%; net margin 14.0%; ROE 26.1%; net debt/EBITDA 1.6x.
The estimated value range is 127.44–178.80 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: same basis (multiples on one peer group, not independent confirmations)); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 146.35 USD, the price of 144.07 USD leaves a potential of 1.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 1.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 55/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 18.3%
- Net margin: 14.0%
- FCF conversion: 122.0%
- Current ratio: 2.1x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 10.4%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.2%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -3.6%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage.
Versus the vertical median
Rubber and plastics products (SIC 308x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENTGEntegris, Inc. | 21.8 bn | 55.7 | 9.6% | 11.1% | −1.4% | +85% / +37% |
| WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | 10.9 bn | 24.9 | 26.1% | 14.0% | +5.0% | +6% / +28% |
| ATRAptarGroup, Inc | 9.3 bn | 35.6 | 9.9% | 6.7% | +5.4% | +18% / +16% |
| AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc. | 7.4 bn | 23.5 | 36.0% | 18.4% | +12.1% | −7% / +107% |
| NWLNewell Brands Inc | 2.5 bn | — | -12.8% | -4.4% | −5.0% | +61% / −23% |
| MYEMyers Industries, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 37.6 | 9.7% | 3.3% | −1.3% | +58% / +62% |
| KRTKarat Packaging Inc. | 1.1 bn | 21.5 | 31.2% | 10.2% | +10.7% | +143% / +149% |
| SWIMLatham Group, Inc. | 963.2 m | 100.2 | 2.2% | 1.6% | +7.4% | +14% / +262% |
| LWLGLightwave Logic, Inc. | 662.9 m | — | -34.4% | -9,134.4% | +147.7% | −1% / +8% |
| CMTCore Molding Technologies, Inc. | 187.1 m | 26.1 | 4.4% | 2.4% | −9.5% | +12% / +18% |
| DSWLDeswell Industries, Inc. | 46.5 m | 4.4 | 10.0% | 17.3% | −9.3% | −19% / +12% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for WMS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 83.82 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 148.53 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 224.22 Total return 56% · Per year 56% |
| 3 years | 73.80 Total return -48% · Per year -19% | 147.86 Total return 4% · Per year 1% | 246.14 Total return 73% · Per year 20% |
| 5 years | 64.98 Total return -53% · Per year -14% | 147.20 Total return 5% · Per year 1% | 270.20 Total return 91% · Per year 14% |
- Exit P/E± 36.97
- Net margin± 25.88
- Annual revenue growth± 22.25
- Annual dilution± 2.17
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Advanced Drainage Systems is a leading maker of water management products for stormwater and onsite wastewater, using recyclable plastic. In the first quarter of fiscal 2027 net sales rose 20.6% to 1.0 billion USD, with the NDS acquisition completed in February 2026 contributing materially 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds a leading position in several drainage markets and operates a national sales and distribution network. It offers complete solutions rather than single products, which strengthens customer relationships.
- Margins have improved and operating cash generation is strong, supporting debt reduction and share repurchases.
- The company holds many patents and runs an efficient manufacturing base with a high share of recycled material.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on a few large customers means losing one important customer could significantly affect results.
- Many contracts are not long-term, so customers can stop buying without long notice.
- Debt has increased after the NDS acquisition, and interest and integration costs could limit financial flexibility.
Opportunities
- Integrating NDS could expand sales in the residential and irrigation markets if the expected synergies materialize.
- Growing demand for water management and public infrastructure spending could support new orders.
- Expanding complementary products and international reach through joint ventures could bring new customers.
Threats
- Resin price swings and new tariffs could cut margins if costs cannot be passed on to customers.
- Rising competition and industry consolidation could pressure prices and volumes.
- Climate regulation and extreme weather could raise costs or interrupt production.
Risks
- Resin prices and tariffshigh
Resin is the main raw material, and price increases or supply disruptions could hurt margins if they are not passed on to customers.
- Customer concentrationhigh
A small number of customers account for a large share of sales, and the absence of long-term contracts could cause sudden revenue losses.
- NDS integrationmedium
Integrating a large acquisition carries the risk of unexpected costs and synergies below expectations, which could affect financial results.
- Construction cyclicalitymedium
Demand depends on non-residential, residential and public infrastructure construction, which can fall sharply during economic uncertainty.
- Debt and interest costslow
Higher net debt and interest costs could limit financial flexibility if financing conditions worsen.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If organic growth stays solid and the NDS integration delivers the stated synergies, the Adjusted EBITDA margin could keep improving.
- The shift from traditional materials to plastic, together with a large addressable market, could support long-term growth.
- Strong complete-package selling and the repurchase program could strengthen the company's position and shareholder returns.
What would break the thesis
- If resin prices or tariffs rise faster than selling prices, margins could fall after the current period of price increases.
- First-quarter growth may partly reflect orders pulled forward ahead of price increases, which could make later quarters weaker.
- Higher debt and integration costs could limit the ability to fund growth or repurchase more shares.
What to watch
- Delivery against fiscal 2027 net sales and Adjusted EBITDA guidance2027
- Organic sales trend and the effect of order pull-forward ahead of price increasesQ2 2027
- Progress of NDS integration and the synergies reportednext 10-K
- Level of net debt and leverage ratio after share repurchasesQ2 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company designs and manufactures thermoplastic corrugated pipe and related drainage products, along with chambers, tanks and treatment systems for onsite wastewater. Its range covers non-residential, residential, infrastructure and agricultural construction, sold through national distribution networks. The NDS acquisition added channel drains, catch basins and access boxes for the residential market 1.
The company describes its model through the lifecycle of rainwater, from capture and conveyance to storage and treatment, so customers buy a complete package rather than pipe alone. This strategy of complementary products, called Allied Products, is presented as a driver of sales growth and market share 1.
Market context
The company estimates the stormwater industry, including irrigation, at roughly 14 billion USD a year, and the onsite wastewater market at about 2 billion USD, implying an addressable market of around 16 billion USD 1. These are the company's own estimates and have not been independently verified.
Demand depends on non-residential construction, infrastructure spending, farm income and mortgage rates. The company notes that demand trends in fiscal 2027 look similar to last year, but it remains cautious about the overall environment 13.
Trends
- Conversion from traditional materialstailwind
Thermoplastic pipe is lighter and cheaper to install than concrete or PVC, which could speed adoption. Broader regulatory approvals and polypropylene pipe could open new markets 1.
- Trade policy and tariffsheadwind
New tariffs could raise resin and transport costs and slow orders, especially if prices cannot be passed on to customers. The company has raised prices to cover these pressures, which has influenced order patterns 12.
- Acquisitions and integrationmixed
The NDS acquisition brought fast growth and a broader residential offer, but integration involves costs and the risk of synergies falling short. The company already reports integration costs and higher overhead 23.
- Seasonality and weathermixed
Sales are concentrated in the first two quarters of the fiscal year, and winter and extreme weather can delay projects. Climate change could increase the frequency of storms and flooding, with effects on demand and production 1.
Competitive position
The company says many competitors are less integrated in full water solutions and that barriers to entry are low, especially locally. Larger competitors with greater resources or through consolidation could gain market share 1.
Competing materials include concrete, steel and PVC, and traditional producers may cut prices to keep customers. ADS's edge could hold if it keeps selling complete product packages while keeping pace on pricing 1.
- Concrete pipe and chamber producers
Compete directly with plastic drainage pipe, cited in the filings as alternative materials in drainage and sewer markets.
- PVC pipe producers
Offer alternative drainage and sewer solutions, which the company describes as heavier and harder to install.
- Steel pipe producers
Compete in infrastructure and agriculture, cited as traditional materials that can be replaced.
- Regional onsite treatment system suppliers
Compete in the onsite wastewater market, where low entry barriers allow local entrants.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report05 Oct 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jul 2026Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement03 Jun 2026
- Current report21 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report21 May 2026
- Current report21 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 Feb 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. · 21 May 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.