olivLaw · US equity research
XP Inc. XP
Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies · SIC 6211 · Vertical: Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies (SIC 6211)
XP Inc. is a technology-driven financial platform in Brazil offering low-fee investment products, advisory services through an independent advisor network, and services for corporate clients and issuers. For fiscal 2025 the company reported total revenue and income of about 18.4 billion reais, and total client assets exceeded 1,491 billion reais. This places it at the centre of the debate over competition with Brazil's traditional banks.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, XP Inc. (XP) stock was 15.14 USD (+2.44% on the day), with beta 1.09, 52-week range 14.04–32.60 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.3
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 7.26 – 38.37
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.25 · band width 136.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 22.13 / 19.13
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.89 / -1.72
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −48.7% | −5.4% | −43.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.8% | −4.9% | −1.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −21.0% | −0.3% | −20.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.5% | +7.8% | −15.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −18.8% | +9.8% | −28.5 pp | −17.7% |
| 3 years | −31.6% | +68.5% | −100.0 pp | +61.3% |
| 5 years | −56.7% | +57.0% | −113.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +60.1% | +75.0% | +39.5% | +23.5% | −4.1% | +10.0% | +13.7% |
| Net income | 413.9 m | 461.4 m | 1.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +11.5% | +134.2% | +92.2% | +72.9% | −0.3% | +8.9% | +15.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 8,535.00 | 9,358.00 | 21,115.00 | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +9.6% | +125.6% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 32.2% | 22.5% | 30.0% | 41.4% | 57.9% | 60.2% | 59.7% | 60.8% |
| Free cash flow | 232.0 m | -539.9 m | -3.9 bn | 1.4 bn | -4.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 8.1 bn | 11.0 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 12.9 bn BRL
- Financial debt
- unavailable BRL
- Net debt
- unavailable BRL
- Equity
- 20.0 bn BRL
- Total assets
- 347.5 bn BRL
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 22.9%
- ROA
- 1.5%
- FCF margin
- 148.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (BRL)
Margins
Income statement · BRL
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.5 bn | 2.4 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.9 bn | 5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Income tax | 454.6 m | 339.9 m | 222.7 m | -135.6 m | 37.0 m | 471.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 21,115.00 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2020verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 511.7 m | 559.1 m | 573.5 m | 573.0 m | 544.2 m | 548.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
Balance sheet · BRL
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 887.8 m | 2.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 5.0 bn | 9.2 bn | 12.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Receivables | 462.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2020verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 142.5 m | 204.0 m | 314.0 m | 310.9 m | 373.4 m | 450.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 553.5 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2020verified |
| Total assets | 43.6 bn | 96.0 bn | 139.3 bn | 192.0 bn | 249.0 bn | 347.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 36.5 bn | 85.1 bn | 124.9 bn | 175.0 bn | 229.6 bn | 327.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Equity | 7.2 bn | 10.9 bn | 14.4 bn | 17.0 bn | 19.5 bn | 20.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
Cash flow · BRL
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -3.8 bn | 1.5 bn | -4.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 8.1 bn | 11.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 72.5 m | 145.2 m | 135.4 m | 44.6 m | 66.0 m | 144.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | -3.9 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | -4.2 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 8.1 bn ≈ | 11.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -161.4 m | -582.0 m | -1.2 bn | -371.3 m | 538.8 m | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 4.2 bn | 788.7 m | 6.6 bn | -200.3 m | -4.4 bn | -5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 500.0 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
25% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 60.8% | 96 (vs peers) | 25% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 244.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 6.2% | 52 (on a fixed band) | 33% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 18.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial52/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality98/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
XP Inc. (XP). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.4 bn BRL in 2024; YoY growth 13.7%; net margin 60.8%; ROE 22.9%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 60.8%
- FCF conversion: 244.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 18.5%
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies (SIC 6211) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 29 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSMorgan Stanley | 283.6 bn | 14.3 | 18.0% | — | unavailable | +7% / +129% |
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | 182.6 bn | 27.0 | 12.2% | 24.2% | +89.3% | +13% / +57% |
| SCHWSchwab Charles Corp | 157.9 bn | 15.5 | 21.1% | 39.3% | +22.0% | −1% / +49% |
| RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc. | 31.3 bn | 14.2 | 18.5% | 13.6% | +6.6% | +4% / +55% |
| SEICSei Investments Company | 12.5 bn | 18.3 | 28.9% | 28.1% | +8.1% | +30% / +79% |
| FRHCFreedom Holding Corp. | 11.4 bn | 70.7 | 11.2% | 6.5% | +9.3% | +36% / +120% |
| JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc. | 9.7 bn | 10.7 | 8.6% | 7.5% | +2.9% | −18% / +34% |
| MKTXMarketaxess Holdings Inc. | 5.8 bn | 20.3 | 22.0% | 33.5% | +3.6% | +1% / −31% |
| SFStifel Financial Corp | 5.0 bn | 5.1 | 16.5% | 14.6% | +6.7% | −12% / +75% |
| IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc. | 4.9 bn | 16.3 | 89.4% | 179.6% | +23.4% | +17% / +290% |
| PIPRPiper Sandler Companies | 4.6 bn | 7.3 | 22.7% | 14.5% | +24.3% | −22% / +70% |
| MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc. | 3.4 bn | 12.3 | 28.9% | 19.8% | +19.6% | −24% / unavailable |
| WTWisdomTree, Inc. | 2.9 bn | 27.3 | 27.0% | 16.6% | +15.4% | +76% / +199% |
| JSMNavient Holdings, Inc. | 1.5 bn | — | -2.0% | — | −15.6% | −21% / −19% |
| MTCMmtec, Inc. | 515.9 m | — | -272.7% | -6,944.3% | −56.8% | +90% / −44% |
| SIEBSiebert Financial Corp. | 73.2 m | — | -1.3% | -1.1% | +12.3% | −45% / −5% |
| DOMHDominari Holdings Inc. | 33.9 m | — | -315.4% | -51.6% | +487.0% | −70% / −38% |
| COHNCohen & Co Inc. | 32.9 m | 1.9 | 33.3% | 5.6% | +246.2% | −34% / +66% |
| LGHLLion Group Holding Ltd. | 27.1 m | — | -27.4% | -52.8% | unavailable | −100% / −100% |
| AXGSolowin Holdings, Ltd. | 19.8 m | — | -88.9% | -47.4% | +895.0% | −65% / −54% |
| GLXYGalaxy Digital Inc. | 1.4 k | — | -16.7% | -0.5% | +41.8% | −49% / unavailable |
| FUTUFutu Holdings Ltd | 0 | 76.0 | 33.3% | 49.6% | +67.8% | −42% / +82% |
| XPXP Inc. | — | — | 22.9% | 60.8% | +13.7% | −19% / −32% |
| TIGRUp Fintech Holding Limited | — | 62.9 | 22.6% | 28.0% | +56.3% | −56% / −12% |
| BULLWebull Corporation | — | — | — | 4.3% | +46.3% | −47% / −55% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for XP from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (17 Aug 2026), 6-K (29 May 2026), 6-K (26 May 2026).
In brief
XP Inc. is a technology-driven financial platform in Brazil offering low-fee investment products, advisory services through an independent advisor network, and services for corporate clients and issuers. For fiscal 2025 the company reported total revenue and income of about 18.4 billion reais, and total client assets exceeded 1,491 billion reais 1. This places it at the centre of the debate over competition with Brazil's traditional banks.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position as an independent investment platform in Brazil, with a broad client base and an extensive adviser network.
- Technology-driven, asset-light business model with low capital expenditure, supporting a high net margin.
- Integrated ecosystem of distribution, media content and issuer services that reinforce each other.
Weaknesses
- Significant revenues depend on capital markets activity and trading volumes, which are volatile.
- A significant portion of revenues comes from one operating subsidiary.
- Most relationships with institutional brokerage clients are not long-term contracts, making volumes more fragile.
Opportunities
- Expanding credit, retirement plan and international investment products to existing clients.
- Deepening stakes in asset managers and independent adviser firms.
- Growth in Brazilian investors moving from traditional saving to digital investing.
Threats
- Competitive pressure from bank affiliates and non-traditional providers with larger resources.
- Evolving regulation and rising compliance costs could limit operating flexibility.
- Market and exchange-rate volatility can affect revenues and trading results.
Risks
- Insufficient technology investmenthigh
If the company fails to invest enough to keep pace with rapid industry change, demand for its services could decline.
- Intense competitionhigh
Competitors with greater resources could offer more attractive fees, which could reduce market share and margins.
- Dependence on one subsidiarymedium
A significant part of revenues comes from one operating subsidiary, and a problem there could affect consolidated results.
- Data security risksmedium
Cybersecurity breaches or service disruptions could lead to liability and reputational damage.
- Brazilian macroeconomic risksmedium
Inflation, political instability and exchange-rate volatility could affect the economy and capital markets, with effects on the company.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Leading position as an independent investment platform and an extensive adviser network provide a distribution advantage that is hard to replicate.
- A technology-driven model and low capital expenditure support a high net margin, which improved in fiscal 2025.
- Growth in issuer services and retail revenues shows diversification of income sources.
What would break the thesis
- Pressure to cut fees could erode margins if cost savings do not offset the gap.
- Dependence on one subsidiary and on capital markets activity makes revenues more sensitive to shocks.
- Competition from bank affiliates and better-resourced non-traditional providers could limit growth.
What to watch
- Development of Corporate & Issuer Services revenues against debt market conditions2026
- Trend in active clients and client assets relative to net inflowsQ1 2027
- Net margin trend after fee reductions and higher adviser incentive costs2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (16 Oct 2026), 6-K (17 Aug 2026), 6-K (29 May 2026), 6-K (26 May 2026).
The business
XP Inc. is a financial holding company incorporated in the Cayman Islands which, through its affiliates, universalises access to high-quality financial services by exploring the synergy between retail investment, retail cross-sell and wholesale banking 1. Its business model rests on investor education, an open product platform and a network of independent financial advisers. The company says it operates mostly online and through mobile applications, which gives it a lean cost structure.
The company built its ecosystem starting from financial education courses, then expanded distribution through the XP, Rico and Clear digital channels and the Infomoney financial information portal 1. Product development included retirement plans, collateralised credit, cards and international investments. Capital expenditure is modest, with the company stating it amounted to a small share of net revenues.
In recent years XP has acquired minority stakes in independent asset managers and in the holding companies of the largest independent financial adviser firms in its network 1. These investments aim to build the most complete ecosystem of managers and distributors in Brazil and to support secondary market liquidity.
Segments
Retail
The retail segment covers individual clients and smaller firms, and gross retail revenues rose in fiscal 2025 to about 14.6 billion reais, mainly from growth in client assets and product mix including fixed income 1. It is the company's largest segment.
Institutional
The institutional segment, serving asset managers, bank treasuries and insurance companies, was stable in fiscal 2025 at about 1.4 billion reais of gross revenues, after a decline in 2024 caused by lower trading activity 1.
Trends
- Digitalisation of retail investingtailwind
Growth in investors using digital channels and mobile applications supports the company's business model, which operates mostly online.
- Activity in debt capital marketsmixed
Strong debt market activity has lifted issuer services revenues, but these can vary with market conditions, issuance volumes and spreads.
- Pressure on feesheadwind
Fee reductions on some of the company's trading platforms could compress margins if cost savings do not offset the lost revenue.
- Consolidation of the independent adviser networkmixed
Stakes in independent advisory firms can strengthen distribution, but they raise the incentive payments needed to keep market share.
Competitive position
The company competes in a highly competitive financial market against traditional financial institutions' affiliates, well-established financial services companies in Brazil and non-traditional providers with significant financial resources 1. Many competitors have greater technological and marketing resources, and bank-affiliated rivals can offer more attractive fees to clients.
The main risk is that competitive pressure forces the company to cut fees further or raise adviser incentives, which could weigh on margins if cost reductions do not offset the gap 1.
- Traditional banks in Brazil
Bank-affiliated institutions offering a narrower product range, but benefiting from large captive client bases and able to offer more competitive fees.
- Non-traditional financial services providers
Companies with significant financial resources developing services different from the traditional ones and competing directly for clients.
- Other digital investment platforms
Platforms competing for the same investor segments, though their scale and cost structure may differ.
- Independent asset managers and distributors
Actors in the ecosystem the company is trying to build, which can be both partners and competitors for the same clients.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 May 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / XP Inc. · 29 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.