olivLaw · European equity research
Ayvens AYV.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0013258662 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Ayvens is a European car leasing and fleet management company formed from the integration of ALD and LeasePlan, wholly owned by Societe Generale. The company is now focused on completing integration, on the transition to electric vehicles and on managing residual value risk, which directly affects its margins. Its funded fleet reached 2.5 million vehicles at 31 December 2025.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Ayvens (AYV.PA) stock was 9.54 EUR (+1.92% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.4 bn EUR, P/E 8.6 on diluted EPS of 1.11 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.88%, beta 0.94, 52-week range 8.60–12.45 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.48 – 9.38
- above the upper band · %B 1.17 · band width 10.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.71 / 10.81
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.09 / -0.23
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.2% | +0.4% | +4.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −17.7% | −3.3% | −14.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −15.0% | +4.0% | −19.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −16.7% | +8.1% | −24.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −13.9% | +10.7% | −24.6 pp | −8.8% |
| 3 years | +48.8% | +50.1% | −1.3 pp | −10.0% |
| 5 years | −23.7% | +43.6% | −67.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 6.5, median 9.0, max 10.3; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 760.0 m | 683.6 m | 995.8 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −10.1% | +45.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.99 | 0.73 | 1.11 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −26.3% | +52.1% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | -3.1 bn | 525.3 m | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.0 bn EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 11.0 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 70.9 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 9.0%
- ROA
- 1.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross profit | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.2 bn | 984.2 m | 1.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.2 bn | 994.3 m | 1.4 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 359.4 m | 284.2 m | 410.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 760.0 m | 683.6 m | 995.8 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.99 | 0.73 | 1.11 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.10 | 0.47 | 0.37 | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 4.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 2.0 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 806.6 m | 842.7 m | 817.9 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 16.5 bn | 19.4 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 645.9 m | 662.9 m | 609.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 70.4 bn | 75.1 bn | 70.9 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 25.3 bn | 28.9 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 59.1 bn | 64.0 bn | 59.9 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.3 bn | 11.2 bn | 11.0 bn | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 752.5 m | 911.5 m | 881.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -3.0 bn | 603.0 m | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Capex | 76.6 m | 77.7 m | 98.2 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -3.1 bn ≈ | 525.3 m ≈ | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | 754.5 m | -2.0 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | 5.7 bn | 2.2 bn | — | esef· 15 Apr 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 360.0 m | esef· 15 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 8.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
31% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.03 – 32.73 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E12.75 – 32.73 (Mid 19.75)21 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 11.5x – 29.5x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)5.03 – 6.86 (Mid 5.81)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 50.7% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.6x | 83 (vs peers) | 33% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.0% | 75 (on a fixed band) | 27% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.3% | 61 (on a fixed band) | 20% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial30/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial61/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AYVENS (AYV.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 9.0%.
The estimated value range is 8.89–19.80 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 12.78 EUR, the price of 9.54 EUR leaves a potential of 34.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 25.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 31.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 8.6x
- FCF yield: 6.0%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 50.7%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| BN.PADanone | 44.1 bn | 21.9 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −11% / +16% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AYV.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Ayvens is a European car leasing and fleet management company formed from the integration of ALD and LeasePlan, wholly owned by Societe Generale. The company is now focused on completing integration, on the transition to electric vehicles and on managing residual value risk, which directly affects its margins. Its funded fleet reached 2.5 million vehicles at 31 December 2025 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a large and diversified fleet with recent vehicles, which reduces the risk linked to technological change 1.
- Used vehicle sales stayed profitable in 2025, with profit per unit above pre-pandemic levels 1.
- Support from the majority shareholder and access to consolidated funding structures help the company during integration 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Residual value riskhigh
If used vehicle prices fall, the company could record losses on returned vehicles, especially electric ones 1.
- Integration riskmedium
Integration costs could exceed estimates, although the risk has fallen after most migrations were completed 1.
- Client satisfaction riskmedium
Service problems during integration could lead to lost contracts and market share 1.
- Maintenance cost riskmedium
Inflation can raise repair and tyre costs, which the company cannot immediately pass on to existing contracts 1.
- Climate and environmental riskmedium
Emissions from financed vehicles and climate policy can affect demand and asset values 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If integration is completed as planned and synergies are realised, margins could benefit from greater operating efficiency 1.
- If demand for electric vehicles stays strong, the company could win new contracts and dedicated services 1.
- Profit from used vehicle sales could remain solid if prices hold above historical levels 1.
What to watch
- Trend in profit from used vehicle salesnext 10-K
- Realisation of integration synergies against target2026
- Achievement of the fleet CO2 emission targetend 2026
- Share of electric vehicles in the funded fleet2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Ayvens provides mobility solutions to companies and individual clients, mainly through operating leasing and related fleet services. According to the 2025 annual report, the company managed a funded fleet of 2.5 million vehicles at year end 1. Its model means that Ayvens generally retains the residual value risk on vehicles returned by clients, selling them at a profit or loss 1. The company is controlled by Societe Generale, so relations with the majority shareholder are governed by related-party transactions 1.
Segments
Leasing and fleet management
The core segment combines vehicle financing with maintenance, repair and tyre services, with costs estimated at lease inception. The main risk is unexpected inflation in labour and spare parts, which the company cannot pass on to existing contracts, only to new ones 1.
Market context
The European car leasing market is being shaped by the shift to electric vehicles, which accounted for 40% of new cars delivered in Europe in 2024, compared with 21% for the market, according to the source cited by the company 1. Global electric car sales reached 20.7 million units in 2025 1. Growth has slowed in Europe due to lower subsidies and high vehicle prices, which could change the profitability of used car sales 1.
Trends
- Shift to electric vehiclesmixed
Demand for electric vehicles is rising, and Ayvens faces both the opportunity and the risk of depreciation of used electric vehicles, especially if volumes exceed market demand 1.
- CO2 emission regulationmixed
European emission rules for manufacturers and the recent fleet mandate for corporate leasing could push lessors toward more electric vehicle purchases, adding volatility to the used car market 1.
- Completing the ALD and LeasePlan integrationtailwind
Most migrations are finished, and the risk of integration costs above estimates fell significantly at the end of 2025 1. If integration stays on track, synergies could be fully realised by 2026 1.
- Inflation of maintenance costsheadwind
General inflation, particularly in labour and spare parts, can raise fleet maintenance costs, and the company cannot pass them on immediately to clients with existing contracts 1.
Competitive position
Ayvens competes with other car leasing and fleet management providers, including specialist companies and banks with mobility divisions. The available sources do not identify competitors in detail, so its relative position is hard to measure from the documents reviewed 1. The company notes, however, that market share could be lost if clients choose other providers because of service problems 1.
- Other car leasing and fleet management providers
Competition comes from providers that could win clients if Ayvens has service problems during integration, as the company's risk disclosures note 1.
- Bank-owned mobility divisions
Bank mobility divisions may compete for the same corporate clients, though the sources do not name them explicitly.
- Car manufacturers with leasing services
Manufacturers can influence demand and used prices through their sales policy, a point raised in the residual value risk analysis 1.
- Fleet service providers
Maintenance and tyre providers can influence costs and clients, and are relevant to the company's service model 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202515 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Ayvens · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.