olivLaw · European equity research
COFACE SA COFA.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0010667147 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
COFACE SA is a French group that provides trade credit insurance and credit risk information services to companies worldwide. The documents analysed show a board with a detailed governance structure, under increasing scrutiny over the independence and diversity of its members.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, COFACE SA (COFA.PA) stock was 16.07 EUR (+1.32% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.4 bn EUR, P/E 10.8 on diluted EPS of 1.49 EUR over the last 12 months, beta 0.50, 52-week range 14.47–17.49 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 15.29 – 16.04
- above the upper band · %B 1.04 · band width 4.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 15.96 / 15.67
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / -0.11
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.6% | −0.6% | +2.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.4% | −4.2% | +3.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −0.6% | +4.3% | −4.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +2.4% | +7.5% | −5.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +11.6% | +9.9% | +1.7 pp | −8.8% |
| 3 years | +37.9% | +49.8% | −11.9 pp | −10.0% |
| 5 years | +31.8% | +42.8% | −11.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 7.4, median 8.2, max 10.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Net income | 240.5 m | 261.1 m | 222.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +8.6% | −15.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.61 | 1.75 | 1.49 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +8.7% | −14.9% |
| net % | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 501.5 m EUR
- Financial debt
- unavailable EUR
- Net debt
- unavailable EUR
- Equity
- 2.2 bn EUR
- Total assets
- 8.1 bn EUR
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 10.1%
- ROA
- 2.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Income statement · EUR
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 495.6 m | 507.8 m | 501.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 155.3 m | 156.8 m | 169.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 84.4 m | 83.7 m | 93.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.9 bn | 8.1 bn | 8.1 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 149.4 m | 149.2 m | 149.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 1 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 2.4 bn EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
10% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.12 – 43.94 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E17.12 – 43.94 (Mid 26.52)21 companies used · median multiple 17.8x · quartiles 11.5x – 29.5x74SW.PA, ABEO.PA, AC.PA, ADP.PA, AF.PA, AI.PA, ALBON.PA, ALCIS.PA, ALCLA.PA, ALFER.PA, ALHEX.PA, ALO.PA, ALPWG.PA, ALSOG.PA, ANTIN.PA, ARAMI.PA, ATE.PA, AUB.PA, AURE.PA, BB.PA, BN.PA
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.8x | 79 (vs peers) | 100% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial79/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
COFACE SA (COFA.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: ROE 10.1%.
The estimated value range is 17.12–43.94 EUR per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 26.52 EUR, the price of 16.07 EUR leaves a potential of 65.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 39.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 1 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 10.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- P/E (TTM): 10.8x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net margin, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, Current ratio, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 40 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| BN.PADanone | 44.1 bn | 21.9 | 11.9% | 7.4% | −0.9% | −11% / +16% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for COFA.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
COFACE SA is a French group that provides trade credit insurance and credit risk information services to companies worldwide. The documents analysed show a board with a detailed governance structure, under increasing scrutiny over the independence and diversity of its members.
SWOT
Strengths
- A board with a diverse composition and a high share of independent directors, in line with the AFEP-MEDEF Code.
- A governance system with clearly separated key functions reporting directly to the board.
- High director attendance at meetings and an annual evaluation of how the board works.
Weaknesses
- The document contains no detailed financial or operating data, which limits any assessment of performance.
- The self-assessment suggests the board could devote more time to human resources and CSR matters.
- Some directors have commercial relationships with partner companies, which require specific independence reviews.
Opportunities
- Strengthening distribution partnerships across several countries could widen geographic reach.
- External development and acquisition projects discussed by the board could bring new growth sources.
- Sustainability commitments and emission reductions could strengthen the company's reputation.
Threats
- A deterioration in the macroeconomic environment could raise the risk of non-payment for insured clients.
- Higher regulatory requirements could generate additional compliance costs.
- Dependence on a reference shareholder may raise questions about the independence of decisions.
Risks
- Macroeconomic riskhigh
Sudden changes in the economy can influence client solvency and insurance demand, with effects on results.
- Regulatory riskmedium
Applying Solvency II and new reporting requirements may need extra resources and could expose the company to sanctions if non-compliance occurs.
- Independence riskmedium
Commercial relationships of some directors with partner companies could affect perceptions of the board's independent judgement.
- Shareholder concentration riskmedium
The influence of the reference shareholder over strategic decisions may limit the role of minority shareholders in governance.
- External development risklow
Acquisitions and international partnerships discussed by the board may involve integration and execution risks.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the solid governance and internal control structure is maintained, the company could benefit from greater confidence among investors and regulators.
- International activity and distribution partnerships could open new markets and diversify revenue sources.
- Attention to sustainability and CSRD reporting could attract investors focused on ESG criteria.
What would break the thesis
- If the economy deteriorates, demand for trade credit insurance could fall and the risk of losses could rise.
- Higher compliance costs linked to regulatory requirements could reduce profit margins.
- The influence of the reference shareholder and some directors' commercial ties could be seen as limits on independence.
What to watch
- Quarterly results and publication of financial dataQ1 2027
- Evolution of the macroeconomic environment and its impact on trade credit insurance demand2027
- Progress on CSRD application and CO2 emission reductionsnext 10-K
- Development of distribution partnerships and external development projects2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The available source is the annual report for the year ended 31 December 2025, which focuses mainly on corporate governance and how the board functions. The document describes the board structure, specialised committees and a governance system built on key functions for risk management, compliance, internal audit and actuarial work.
The board held seven meetings in 2025, plus a strategic seminar in November and a session without management in December. Agenda items covered financial position, the application of Solvency II, approval of the 2026 budget, long-term incentive plans and external development projects.
The document shows a board with an international composition and a high share of independent directors, reflecting compliance with the AFEP-MEDEF Code. Two thirds of the committee members are independent directors, and the committee chairs are held by women.
Segments
Board governance
The board works through specialised committees for accounts and audit, nominations, remuneration and CSR, and risks. The 2025 self-assessment was generally rated satisfactory, with directors highlighting the quality of organisation and the atmosphere of trust.
Internal control and risk
The internal control system includes key functions that report directly to the board. Regular ORSA, RSR and SFCR reporting and approval of written Solvency II policies point to a structured supervisory framework.
Market context
The document provides no market data, market shares or sales figures, so it does not allow a quantitative assessment of the company's position in the trade credit insurance market. The findings are limited to governance structure and board decisions.
The macroeconomic environment was a recurring topic at board meetings in 2025, alongside risk management and the group's reinsurance policy, indicating that exposure to economic conditions remains a priority.
Trends
- Macroeconomic environmentmixed
The board reviewed economic developments regularly, which suggests that changes in the economic cycle directly influence demand for credit insurance. If economic uncertainty persists, demand for protection against non-payment could remain high.
- Sustainability reportingmixed
The board discussed the application of the CSRD and tracking of CO2 emission reductions. Heavier reporting requirements can add administrative cost but also improve transparency.
- Insurance regulationmixed
Applying Solvency II and preparing regular reports is an ongoing task. A stricter regulatory framework may strengthen investor confidence but also requires constant administrative effort.
- Governance diversitytailwind
Legal requirements and the AFEP-MEDEF Code encourage diversity of gender, nationality and experience on the board. If this trend strengthens, board composition could become a more important criterion for investors.
Competitive position
The document analysed does not identify competitors and does not describe market share. Based on this source, no statements can be made about the company's competitive positioning.
The only references to commercial relationships with third parties concern distribution partnerships and information purchase contracts, which the report states have no significant impact on the company.
- Arch Capital GroupACGL
The reference shareholder mentioned in the report; it is not presented as a direct competitor in the source.
- Generali
Distribution partner in several countries according to the report, not a declared competitor.
- Groupe Elsan
Information services customer mentioned in the report in the context of director independence.
- Other trade credit insurers
The source does not name other competitors; this category remains unidentified in the documents analysed.
News & filings
In the press
- Coface Top 500 cele mai mari companii din Europa Centrală şi de Est. România are 59 de firme în clasament, din care zece în top 100. „Raportat la mărimea economiei, puteau fi mai multe. O explicaţie? Piaţa internă suficient de mare cât să nu încurajeze companiile să depăşească graniţele propriei ţări ”Ziarul Financiar · 06 Nov 2026 · RO
- BTA: 26 de companii bulgare, printre cele mai mari 500 din Europa Centrală și de Est (Coface)Agerpres · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Coface estimează că economia României va creşte cu 1,6% în 2027. “Poate părea surprinzător să fim optimişti pentru România, dar ritmul de creştere va fi sub media regională şi sub potenţial”Ziarul Financiar · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Coface CEE Top 500: România se află pe locul 4 în clasamentul regional al celor mai mari 500 de companii, cu 59 de firme, dar a avut în 2025 cel mai mare ritm de creştere al afacerilor, de 6,2%, la 106 mld.euroZiarul Financiar · 05 Nov 2026 · RO
- Tensiunea din Orientul Mijlociu, El Niño, perturbările climatice şi tranziţia energetică determină creşteri simultane ale preţurilor la energie, produse agricole şi metale industriale. Coface îşi menţine prognoza pentru un preţ al petrolului de 85 USD/baril în 2026Ziarul Financiar · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Conferinţa de risc de ţară Coface 2026. România a recuperat în 30 de ani decalaje economice care păreau imposibil de acoperit, dar următoarea etapă cere companii mai mari, investiţii şi predictibilitate. „Nu există o lume fără riscuri”Ziarul Financiar · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- Alina Popa, country manager, Coface România: Cele mai bune decizii se bazează pe analiză, pe date. Trebuie să înţelegem schimbările din jurul nostru, să punem întrebările potrivite, să identificăm oportunităţile, să înţelegem riscurile şi să fim pregătiţiZiarul Financiar · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Alina Popa, country manager, Coface România: Cele mai bune decizii se bazează pe analiză, pe date. Trebuie - Ziarul FinanciarSurge — Google News · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- Alina Popa, Coface România: Deciziile de business trebuie să se bazeze pe analiză și date - www.goldring.roSurge — Google News · 20 Oct 2026 · RO
- CCIA Timiș și Coface aduc în prim-plan puterea informației în deciziile de business - Sursa de VestSurge — Google News · 24 Sept 2026 · RO
- Analiză Coface: Importurile din China în Europa Centrală şi de Est au crescut cu 17% într-un an, punând presiune şi mai mare pe sectoare economice deja slăbiteZiarul Financiar · 21 Sept 2026 · RO
- Studiu Coface 2026: „China Shock 2.0” și tensiunile din Strâmtoarea Ormuz pun presiune pe companiile din CEE / Cum este afectată RomâniaEconomedia · 21 Sept 2026 · RO
- COFACE: Numărul insolvenţelor a crescut în primul semestru din 2026 cu 12%, la 3.855 de proceduri noi. Cele mai afectate sectoare sunt Comerţ, Construcţii şi Transporturi. ”Ne aşteptăm ca disciplina la plată să rămână sub presiune, iar numărul insolvenţelor să îşi menţină tendinţa de creştere”Ziarul Financiar · 16 Sept 2026 · RO
- Coface: Avem cele mai multe insolvențe din ultimii 8 aniHotNews.ro · 16 Sept 2026 · RO
- Analiză COFACE: Nivelurile scăzute ale apei pe Rin şi Dunăre pun economia europeană sub presiune. Operatorii şi-au redus încărcăturile cu până la 40% pe tronsonul românesc al DunăriiZiarul Financiar · 01 Sept 2026 · RO
- Coface: Statele Unite au înlocuit tarifele temporare cu noi tarife cuprinse între 10% şi 12,5%, care vizează 60 de ţări, şi pregăteşte deja următoarele demersuriZiarul Financiar · 03 Aug 2026 · RO
- Insolvențele explodează la nivel mondial. Coface avertizează: Situația companiilor se deteriorează rapid pe fondul conflictelor și al costurilor tot mai mariCapital.ro · 11 Jun 2026 · RO
- Analiză Coface: Numărul insolvenţelor la nivel global este din nou în creştere, pe fondul deteriorării climatului economicZiarul Financiar · 11 Jun 2026 · RO
- CEC Bank pentru afaceri româneşti. Bogdan Nichişoiu, Coface: Industria alimentară, alături de energie sunt prioritare. Dar fragmentarea din producţia alimentară ne taie din puterea de negociere şi ne face scumpi, iar în energie nu trebuie să fim doar producători, ci să intrăm în zona de valoare adăugatăZiarul Financiar · 14 May 2026 · RO
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / COFACE SA · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.