olivLaw · European equity research
Valneva SE VLA.PA
France · Euronext Paris · ISIN FR0004056851 · Vertical: Listed companies from France
Valneva SE is a French biotechnology company that develops and sells travel and infectious disease vaccines, led by IXIARO, DUKORAL and IXCHIQ. In fiscal 2025 the company reported total revenue of 174.7 mn EUR, but posted a net loss of 115.2 mn EUR as regulatory restrictions weighed on IXCHIQ.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Valneva SE (VLA.PA) stock was 2.56 EUR (+0.95% on the day), with market capitalisation 433.0 m EUR, beta 1.02, 52-week range 2.08–5.08 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.2
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 2.34 – 2.65
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.70 · band width 12.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.66 / 2.90
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / -0.05
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.4% | −0.6% | +0.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +15.1% | −4.2% | +19.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +4.3% | +4.3% | −0.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | −31.3% | +7.5% | −38.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −34.0% | +9.9% | −43.9 pp | −6.8% |
| 3 years | −55.7% | +49.8% | −105.6 pp | −15.9% |
| 5 years | −85.6% | +42.8% | −128.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 153.7 m | 169.6 m | 174.7 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +10.3% | +3.0% |
| Net income | -101.4 m | -12.2 m | -115.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.73 | -0.08 | -0.68 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -66.0% | -7.2% | -66.0% |
| Free cash flow | -217.0 m | -81.1 m | -57.3 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 109.7 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 179.2 m EUR
- Net debt
- 69.5 m EUR
- Equity
- 106.2 m EUR
- Total assets
- 398.8 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 1.69x
- Current ratio
- 2.38x
- ROE
- -80.2%
- ROA
- -25.6%
- FCF margin
- -32.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 153.7 m | 169.6 m | 174.7 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 100.9 m | 98.5 m | 107.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 52.8 m ≈ | 71.0 m ≈ | 67.5 m ≈ | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Research & development | 59.9 m | 74.1 m | 85.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -82.1 m | 13.3 m | -82.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 23.3 m | 24.0 m | 41.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -98.6 m | -11.5 m | -114.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 2.8 m | 761.0 k | 1.1 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -101.4 m | -12.2 m | -115.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.73 | -0.08 | -0.68 | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 126.1 m | 168.3 m | 109.7 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 44.5 m | 53.7 m | 50.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 262.8 m | 299.0 m | 222.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 136.2 m | 138.9 m | 119.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 25.6 m | 25.3 m | 22.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 460.1 m | 500.0 m | 398.8 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 44.3 m | 35.5 m | 24.5 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 44.1 m | 20.9 m | 17.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 132.8 m | 166.5 m | 161.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 158.9 m | 114.6 m | 93.3 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 331.8 m | 318.8 m | 292.7 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 128.2 m | 181.3 m | 106.2 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 138.9 m | 153.1 m | 169.4 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -202.7 m | -67.2 m | -52.9 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 14.2 m | 13.9 m | 4.4 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -217.0 m ≈ | -81.1 m ≈ | -57.3 m ≈ | esef· 18 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -20.6 m | 76.9 m | -1.7 m | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 63.1 m | 30.7 m | -621.0 k | esef· 18 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 433.0 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -36.7% | 5 (vs peers) | 29% |
| Net margin · Quality | -66.0% | 21 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -2.0x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -13.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality11/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
VALNEVA (VLA.PA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 174.7 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 3.0%; net margin -66.0%; ROE -80.2%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.4x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -36.7%
- Net margin: -66.0%
- Interest coverage: -2.0x
- FCF yield: -13.2%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from France · same country · compared with 39 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI.PAL'air Liquide Societe Anonyme Pour L'etude Et L'exploitation Des Procedes Georges Claude | 109.3 bn | 33.2 | 12.9% | 12.2% | −2.0% | +26% / +32% |
| AC.PAAccor | 13.8 bn | 30.7 | 9.6% | 8.0% | +0.6% | +6% / +56% |
| ADP.PAAeroports De Paris | 11.7 bn | 34.1 | 7.8% | 5.6% | +12.1% | −7% / +4% |
| AKE.PAArkema | 7.1 bn | 115.4 | 0.9% | 0.7% | −5.0% | +12% / −37% |
| ALO.PAAlstom | 5.8 bn | 18.3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | +3.7% | −51% / −4% |
| AF.PAAir France - Klm | 4.3 bn | 13.6 | — | 1.0% | +4.8% | +20% / +9% |
| ATE.PAAlten | 3.1 bn | 29.5 | 4.8% | 2.6% | −1.1% | +33% / −29% |
| BB.PASociete Bic | 2.7 bn | 31.3 | 5.0% | 4.1% | −4.8% | +32% / +5% |
| ANTIN.PAAntin Infrastructure Partners | 1.4 bn | 13.0 | 21.9% | 36.6% | −8.1% | −24% / −35% |
| 74SW.PA74software | 792.7 m | 20.9 | 8.9% | 8.5% | +44.8% | −13% / +41% |
| AUB.PAAubay | 667.4 m | 17.8 | 13.6% | 6.3% | +11.3% | +3% / +45% |
| ASY.PAAssystem | 507.1 m | 69.9 | 2.5% | 1.1% | +7.4% | −19% / −18% |
| ATO.PAAtos Se | 483.0 m | — | -23,400.0% | -17.5% | −16.5% | −45% / −94% |
| VLA.PAValneva | 433.0 m | — | -80.2% | -66.0% | +3.0% | −36% / −52% |
| ARAMI.PAAramis Group | 298.8 m | 15.0 | 10.0% | 0.8% | +6.3% | −33% / −16% |
| ARVEN.PAArverne Group | 246.1 m | — | -14.0% | -115.3% | +27.0% | +20% / −35% |
| BGO.PACompagnie Chargeurs Invest | 189.4 m | — | -8.6% | -5.7% | −2.9% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALCIS.PACatering International & Services | 145.0 m | 28.4 | 9.3% | 1.9% | +5.8% | +39% / +107% |
| ALCGM.PACegedim | 144.6 m | — | -2.6% | -1.2% | +10.9% | −26% / −49% |
| ATEME.PAAteme | 144.0 m | 151.3 | 2.8% | 1.0% | +2.2% | +82% / +77% |
| ALHEX.PAHexaom | 144.0 m | 6.7 | 9.9% | 2.2% | +13.1% | −32% / +7% |
| ALBON.PACompagnie Lebon | 111.7 m | 16.5 | 4.2% | 8.8% | −17.9% | +6% / +8% |
| ALHYF.PALhyfe | 75.8 m | — | -33.4% | -570.5% | +287.2% | unavailable / unavailable |
| ALFER.PASergeferrari Group | 61.5 m | 11.5 | 5.1% | 1.5% | +7.4% | −33% / −27% |
| ABEO.PAAbeo | 60.8 m | 7.3 | 6.9% | 3.0% | +12.6% | −13% / −54% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VLA.PA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Valneva SE is a French biotechnology company that develops and sells travel and infectious disease vaccines, led by IXIARO, DUKORAL and IXCHIQ. In fiscal 2025 the company reported total revenue of 174.7 mn EUR 1, but posted a net loss of 115.2 mn EUR 1 as regulatory restrictions weighed on IXCHIQ.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio of commercial products with recognised brands and stable market positions in the travel segment, such as IXIARO and DUKORAL 1.
- A proprietary cell platform and a network of patents and trade secrets that protect the core technology 1.
- Diversified revenue from research, licensing and service contracts, which grew in 2025 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on key productshigh
The company has only three major products on the market, and revenue depends on their performance and on health authority recommendations 1.
- Restrictions on IXCHIQhigh
The suspension of the US licence and withdrawal of the US authorisation could have long-lasting effects on sales of the product 1.
- Production and compliance riskshigh
The FDA inspection of the Almeida site could limit IXIARO supply to the US market if compliance issues are not resolved 1.
- Need for additional fundingmedium
The company could need new funds, and financing terms could be harder to obtain given conditions in financial markets 1.
- Currency riskmedium
Revenue in US dollars and costs in pounds sterling and Swedish kronor expose the company to exchange rate fluctuations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If IXIARO and DUKORAL sales keep growing on travel industry demand, the company could stabilise revenue despite the problems with IXCHIQ 1.
- If research projects, including the shigellosis candidate, achieve favourable results, they could open new revenue sources 1.
- If compliance issues at Almeida are resolved, production capacity could again support revenue growth 1.
What would break the thesis
- If IXCHIQ restrictions spread to other markets, revenue could fall further and losses could persist 1.
- If patent expiry brings similar products to market, sales could be significantly affected 1.
- If the company cannot obtain financing on acceptable terms, development activities could be constrained 1.
What to watch
- Resolution of compliance issues at the Almeida site and the FDA decision on the IXIARO BLA supplement2026
- IXCHIQ sales trend after use restrictions and the withdrawal of the US authorisationQ1 2026
- Results of the phase 3 trial for the Lyme disease vaccine candidate2026
- Funding strategy and compliance with Pharmakon loan covenantsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Valneva develops vaccines based on its EB66 cell platform and other proprietary technologies, with three major products on the market: IXIARO, DUKORAL and IXCHIQ 1. The company relies on patents, trademarks and trade secrets; patents linked to the EB66 platform could expire in 2036, subject to the conditions in the registration document 1. Production takes place mainly in Scotland (Livingston and Almeida) and Sweden (Solna), with Vienna handling product release 1.
Commercial activity depends heavily on the travel industry and on the company's ability to produce in line with demand, and product sales declined slightly in 2025 versus 2024 1. Research and development spending rose in 2025, mainly due to the shigellosis vaccine candidate and phase 4 work on IXCHIQ 1. The company recorded an operating loss in 2025, compared with an operating profit in 2024 that included an exceptional gain from the sale of a priority review voucher 1.
The financial risk profile is significant: the company could need additional funding, and the Pharmakon loan agreement imposes operating restrictions 1. Currency exposure is high, as sales are largely in US dollars and other currencies while production costs are in pounds sterling and Swedish kronor 1.
Segments
IXIARO / JESPECT
The Japanese encephalitis vaccine sold as IXIARO and JESPECT generated sales of 98.4 mn EUR in 2025, up 4.6 percent on travel market demand 1. Gross margin reached 59.6 percent 1, while output from the new Almeida site could only serve markets outside the United States, as the FDA has not yet approved the supplement for that site 1.
Market context
The travel vaccine market is relatively shielded from direct biosimilar substitution because of regulatory complexity and manufacturing processes, although similar products approved through full or abbreviated pathways could open the door to competition 1. Demand depends on health body recommendations, vaccine availability and public confidence in vaccines 1.
US Department of Defense demand for IXIARO depends on troop rotation frequency, which could influence the volumes ordered 1. Costs and revenues could be affected by inflation, customs tariffs and exchange rate movements 1.
Trends
- Use restrictions on IXCHIQheadwind
Regulators limited use of the IXCHIQ vaccine, which could reduce sales in several markets and affect the product's commercial outlook 1.
- Growth in travel demandtailwind
Growth in the travel industry supported sales of IXIARO and DUKORAL, and this factor could keep supporting revenue if international travel stays strong 1.
- Inflation and cost pressureheadwind
Persistent inflation and customs tariffs have raised production and distribution costs, and difficulty offsetting them could compress margins 1.
- Development projects and partnershipsmixed
Development of vaccine candidates, including against shigellosis and Lyme disease, along with licensing agreements, could generate future revenue, although clinical outcomes are uncertain 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with other vaccine makers in travel and infectious disease vaccines, and the launch of new vaccines for the same indications could be seen as more effective or with fewer adverse effects 1. Competition from similar products approved through abbreviated pathways could increase if patents expire 1.
Valneva depends on a small number of major products, which could leave the company vulnerable if a competitor gains a dominant position in its segments 1.
- Bavarian Nordic
Company active in travel and infectious disease vaccines, mentioned as a possible competitor in the vaccine sector; the source provides no details on this company.
- CSL Seqirus
Distribution partner for DUKORAL in Germany following the commercial transition described in the report 1.
- Serum Institute of India
Supply partner whose agreement was terminated in December 2025, affecting IXCHIQ inventory 1.
- Makers of similar vaccines
Companies that could launch similar products through full or abbreviated approval pathways if patents expire 1.
News & filings
In the press
- Pfizer (PFE), Valneva (VALN) Lyme Vaccine Moves to EMA Review Despite Phase 3 CaveatYahoo Finance — News · 15 Sept 2026 · EN
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202518 Mar 2026
- Annual report 202415 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Valneva SE · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.