olivLaw · US equity research
AAON, Inc. AAON
Air-Cond & Warm Air Heatg Equip & Comm & Indl Refrig Equip · SIC 3585 · Vertical: Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 358x)
AAON designs and manufactures configurable heating, ventilation, air conditioning and liquid cooling equipment for commercial and industrial buildings, sold largely through independent representatives. The company is drawing attention because growth is driven by data center demand through its BASX division, while margins are under pressure during rapid scaling. Net sales reached 1442.1 million USD in fiscal 2025 and rose 101.2% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 to 627.0 million USD.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, AAON, Inc. (AAON) stock was 58.25 USD (−15.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.8 bn USD, P/E 30.4 on diluted EPS of 1.92 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.69%, beta 1.74, 52-week range 58.25–148.25 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 627.0 m USD (+101.2% YoY), net income of 56.7 m USD (+265.8% YoY), diluted EPS 0.68 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 27.9
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 60.67 – 89.12
- below the lower band · %B -0.08 · band width 38.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 77.92 / 97.35
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -4.19 / -2.95
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −30.9% | −1.1% | −29.8 pp | — |
| 3 months | −37.5% | −0.5% | −37.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −40.7% | +4.4% | −45.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −23.6% | +12.3% | −35.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −35.2% | +13.5% | −48.8 pp | +0.5% |
| 3 years | +0.7% | +76.4% | −75.8 pp | +34.8% |
| 5 years | +18.2% | +63.7% | −45.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 327.3 m | 297.7 m | 322.1 m | 311.6 m | 384.2 m | 424.2 m | 496.9 m | 627.0 m |
| Cost of revenue | 213.1 m | 220.1 m | 235.7 m | 228.8 m | 277.4 m | 314.4 m | 372.0 m | 474.5 m |
| Gross profit | 114.2 m | 77.6 m | 86.4 m | 82.7 m | 106.9 m | 109.8 m | 125.0 m | 152.5 m |
| SG&A | 48.6 m | 48.2 m | 51.3 m | 59.1 m | 63.2 m | 65.8 m | 67.9 m | 83.6 m |
| Operating income | 65.5 m | 29.4 m | 35.1 m | 23.6 m | 43.6 m | 44.0 m | 57.1 m | 68.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 17.3 m ≈ | 17.6 m | 18.9 m | 19.9 m ≈ | 20.0 m ≈ | 20.4 m | 20.9 m | 23.8 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 64.5 m | 28.3 m | 32.5 m | 19.5 m | 38.4 m | 38.3 m | 52.1 m | 62.8 m |
| Income tax | 11.9 m | 3.6 m | 3.2 m | 4.0 m | 7.7 m | 6.3 m | 12.3 m | 6.2 m |
| Net income | 52.6 m | 24.7 m | 29.3 m | 15.5 m | 30.8 m | 32.0 m | 39.8 m | 56.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.63 | 0.29 ≈ | 0.35 | 0.19 | 0.37 | 0.39 ≈ | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| Operating cash flow | 63.8 m ≈ | 845.0 k | -9.2 m | -21.8 m ≈ | 12.3 m ≈ | 19.3 m | 34.0 m | 21.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 6.5 m ≈ | 6.5 m | 8.1 m | 8.2 m ≈ | 8.2 m ≈ | 8.2 m | 8.1 m | 8.2 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 38 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 22.3, median 34.1, max 77.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 433.9 m | 469.3 m | 514.6 m | 534.5 m | 888.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +7.1% | +8.2% | +9.6% | +3.9% | +66.3% | +31.5% | +2.7% | +20.1% |
| Net income | 42.3 m | 53.7 m | 79.0 m | 58.8 m | 100.4 m | 177.6 m | 168.6 m | 107.6 m |
| Net income YoY | −21.4% | +26.9% | +47.1% | −25.6% | +70.8% | +77.0% | −5.1% | −36.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.80 | 1.02 | 1.49 | 0.73 | 1.24 | 2.13 | 2.02 | 1.29 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −20.8% | +27.5% | +46.1% | −51.0% | +69.9% | +71.8% | −5.2% | −36.1% |
| net % | 9.8% | 11.4% | 15.4% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 7.5% |
| Free cash flow | 17.6 m | 60.8 m | 61.0 m | 5.8 m | 7.3 m | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 13.0 k USD
- Financial debt
- 0 USD
- Net debt
- -13.0 k USD
- Equity
- 895.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 2.63x
- ROE
- 12.5%
- ROA
- 7.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 514.6 m | 534.5 m | 888.8 m | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 358.7 m | 396.7 m | 651.2 m | 769.5 m | 803.5 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 155.8 m | 137.8 m | 237.6 m | 399.0 m | 397.1 m | 385.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 17.4 m | 16.6 m | 46.8 m | 43.7 m | 47.3 m | 58.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 60.5 m | 68.6 m | 110.8 m | 171.5 m | 188.0 m | 239.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 101.8 m | 69.3 m | 126.8 m | 227.5 m | 209.1 m | 146.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 25.6 m | 30.3 m | 35.1 m | 46.5 m | 62.7 m | 79.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 127.5 m ≈ | 99.6 m ≈ | 161.9 m ≈ | 274.0 m ≈ | 271.9 m ≈ | 225.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 102.0 m | 69.2 m | 124.5 m | 223.2 m | 206.6 m | 128.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 23.0 m | 10.4 m | 24.2 m | 45.5 m | 38.0 m | 21.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 79.0 m | 58.8 m | 100.4 m | 177.6 m | 168.6 m | 107.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.49 | 0.73 | 1.24 | 2.13 | 2.02 | 1.29 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 53.1 m | 80.6 m | 81.1 m | 83.3 m | 83.6 m | 83.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.38 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.40 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 79.0 m | 2.9 m | 5.5 m | 287.0 k | 14.0 k | 13.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 47.4 m | 70.8 m | 127.2 m | 138.1 m | 147.4 m | 314.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Inventories | 82.2 m | 130.3 m | 198.9 m | 213.5 m | 187.4 m | 261.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 220.3 m | 218.1 m | 349.1 m | 409.0 m | 488.2 m | 869.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 223.3 m | 258.1 m | 304.7 m | 369.9 m | 510.4 m | 631.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 3.2 m | 85.7 m | 81.9 m | 81.9 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 38.0 k | 70.1 m | 64.6 m | 68.1 m | 78.3 m | 83.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 449.0 m | 650.2 m | 813.9 m | 941.4 m | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 12.4 m | 29.0 m | 45.5 m | 27.5 m | 44.6 m | 110.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | — | — | 0 | 16.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 59.0 m | 86.8 m | 145.6 m | 126.7 m | 174.9 m | 330.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 350.9 m | 466.2 m | 560.7 m | 735.2 m | 824.6 m | 895.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 128.8 m | 61.2 m | 61.3 m | 158.9 m | 192.5 m | 534.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 67.8 m | 55.4 m | 54.0 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2023verified |
| Free cash flow | 61.0 m ≈ | 5.8 m ≈ | 7.3 m ≈ | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2023derived |
| Investing cash flow | -61.3 m | -158.7 m | -76.2 m | -109.3 m | -213.1 m | -192.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -29.6 m | 18.7 m | 17.4 m | -46.5 m | 18.0 m | 186.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 19.8 m | 19.9 m | 22.9 m | 26.4 m | 26.1 m | 32.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 02 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 46.55 – 48.93 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
- Peers: P/E46.55 – 48.93 (Mid 48.13)4 companies used · median multiple 25.1x · quartiles 24.3x – 25.5xALH, HAYW, JCI, SXI
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate5.26 – 7.07 (Mid 6.03)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.2% | 50 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 17.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.3% | 9 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 30.4x | 17 (vs peers) | 24% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.7% | 10 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial50/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial10/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial17/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AAON, INC. (AAON). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 20.1%; net margin 8.2%; ROE 17.3%.
The estimated value range is 46.55–48.93 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 48.13 USD, the price of 58.25 USD leaves a potential of -17.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -21.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 17.5%
- Current ratio: 3.0x
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 1.3%
- P/E (TTM): 30.4x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.7%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Industrial machinery and computer equipment (SIC 358x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCIJohnson Controls International PLC | 85.7 bn | 25.1 | 24.1% | 14.5% | +2.8% | +21% / +166% |
| CARRCarrier Global Corporation | 45.5 bn | — | -14.3% | -7.9% | −3.3% | +1% / +7% |
| LIILennox International Inc | 12.3 bn | 16.7 | 59.5% | 13.8% | −2.7% | −28% / −12% |
| MIDDThe Middleby Corporation | 5.8 bn | — | -16.2% | -13.9% | unavailable | +34% / +26% |
| AAONAaon, Inc. | 4.8 bn | 30.4 | 17.3% | 8.2% | +20.1% | −35% / +1% |
| ALHAlliance Laundry Holdings Inc. | 4.6 bn | 25.1 | 109.8% | 10.1% | +13.3% | −3% / unavailable |
| HAYWHayward Holdings, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 21.8 | 10.9% | 14.4% | +6.7% | +3% / +44% |
| SXIStandex International Corp | 3.0 bn | 26.8 | 15.3% | 12.5% | +12.8% | +3% / +88% |
| TNCTennant Co | 1.2 bn | 54.9 | 3.9% | 1.9% | −6.5% | −0% / −15% |
| TGENTecogen Inc. | 51.6 m | — | -77.5% | -42.3% | +19.7% | −77% / +94% |
| LBGJLi Bang International Corporation Inc. | 34.5 m | — | -16.6% | -9.1% | +2.9% | −100% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AAON from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 38.40 Total return -33% · Per year -33% | 67.57 Total return 17% · Per year 17% | 101.36 Total return 75% · Per year 75% |
| 3 years | 45.54 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 89.36 Total return 56% · Per year 16% | 145.95 Total return 154% · Per year 36% |
| 5 years | 54.02 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 118.18 Total return 108% · Per year 16% | 210.17 Total return 268% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 22.34
- Net margin± 15.64
- Annual revenue growth± 11.66
- Annual dilution± 1.31
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AAON designs and manufactures configurable heating, ventilation, air conditioning and liquid cooling equipment for commercial and industrial buildings, sold largely through independent representatives. The company is drawing attention because growth is driven by data center demand through its BASX division, while margins are under pressure during rapid scaling. Net sales reached 1442.1 million USD in fiscal 2025 and rose 101.2% year over year in the second quarter of 2026 to 627.0 million USD.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has strong demand, a high backlog and a semi-customization model that combines production efficiency with customer-specific configurations 13.
- The independent representative network and reputation for efficiency and durability support market share in the replacement market 1.
- BASX holds a solid position in the data center market with differentiated liquid cooling products for high-density loads 13.
Weaknesses
- Gross margins fell in 2026 because of scaling costs, outsourcing and inflation pressures, and management acknowledges the pressure on margins 3.
- Customer concentration and dependence on a few large data center customers make revenue sensitive to their purchasing decisions 1.
- Sales depend on third-party representatives, whose relationships can be affected by competitors with greater resources 1.
Opportunities
- If data center and AI infrastructure investment continues, demand for BASX could support growth in the coming years 13.
- Heat pump solutions and decarbonization of commercial buildings could open new markets for the AAON brand 1.
- If price increases, higher utilization of new capacity and sourcing initiatives take hold, margins could gradually recover 3.
Threats
- A slowdown in commercial construction or a recession could reduce AAON-brand sales and replacement demand 1.
- Tariffs and volatile raw material prices could raise costs and affect supplier availability 12.
- Competitors with greater resources could cut prices or restrict sales channels, which would affect market share 1.
Risks
- Customer concentrationhigh
A small number of large customers account for a significant share of revenue, and losing or reducing orders from them could materially affect results 1.
- Backlog conversionhigh
Customers can reduce or defer firm orders, and a large backlog does not guarantee that the expected revenue will be fully realized 1.
- Margin pressurehigh
Scaling costs, outsourcing and inflation reduced gross margin in 2026, and improvement depends on utilization of capacity and execution of price increases 3.
- Tariffs and raw materialsmedium
Shifting trade policy and volatile prices for copper, aluminum and steel could raise costs and disrupt the supply chain 12.
- Single-location dependencemedium
Most operations are carried out in Tulsa, so natural disasters or disruptions there could halt production 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Second quarter 2026 sales growth and a backlog nearly double last year's level point to strong demand and rising conversion capacity 3.
- The raised 2026 outlook suggests management sees sustained demand and new capacity reaching higher utilization 3.
- If price increases, sourcing savings and productivity gains take hold, margins could recover and cash generation could improve 3.
What would break the thesis
- Gross margin fell in the second quarter of 2026 and the margin guidance was reduced, showing that rapid scaling can cost more than expected 3.
- Dependence on data centers and a few large customers makes revenue sensitive to sudden changes in investment timing 13.
- Backlog fell from the previous quarter and large order timing can vary, which could make results harder to predict 3.
What to watch
- Gross margin trajectory and execution of price increasesQ3 2026
- BASX backlog level and new data center ordersQ3 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
AAON, based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, designs, manufactures and sells customizable HVAC equipment for indoor commercial and industrial environments, including rooftop units, data center cooling solutions and cleanroom systems 1. Its mass semi-customization model combines scaled production efficiency with configurations for each customer, and products are built to order after the system has been specified before production 1. The company runs three reportable segments, AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products and BASX, and sells mainly through independent representatives plus a small internal sales force 1.
Market context
The commercial and industrial HVAC market has moderated: after strong growth in 2022 to 2024, nonresidential construction activity softened in late 2024 and through 2025, and recent indicators show stabilization without a clear reacceleration 12. The data center market expanded rapidly, with construction spending up about 240.0% between 2022 and 2025, which has fed demand for BASX 1.
Tariffs introduced from 2025 raised costs for imported materials and components, and the company applied price surcharges to partly offset them 12. Competition is dominated by larger manufacturers, some with greater financial resources, and AAON aims to compete on total value and lifecycle cost rather than price 1.
Trends
- Data center and AI demandtailwind
Rising investment in AI and high-performance computing infrastructure supports demand for liquid cooling and BASX solutions, and backlog of 2.0 billion USD at June 30 2026 reflects this demand 13.
- Slowdown in commercial constructionheadwind
Nonresidential construction has moderated since 2024, weighing on the AAON brand and replacement sales; the company reported lower AAON-brand sales in 2025 1.
- Tariffs and material costsmixed
Tariffs and higher copper and aluminum prices raised costs, and the company introduced price increases, whose effect lags because of production lead times 12.
- Production capacity expansionmixed
New plants and ERP systems helped raise volumes but also added costs and disruption that pressured margins in 2026 13.
Competitive position
In commercial air conditioning AAON competes with larger manufacturers such as Lennox, Trane, Johnson Controls, Carrier and Daikin, which have greater financial and research resources 1. In data center thermal management the rivals include Vertiv, STULZ, Munters, Modine and others 1.
The company says it has gained share in the replacement market through lower total cost of ownership and configurable systems, but competitors that control their own sales channels can restrict access to independent representatives 1.
- Lennox InternationalLII
HVAC equipment maker for residential and commercial markets, named in the source as a comfort-products competitor.
- Trane TechnologiesTT
Supplier of climate control and cooling systems, named in the source as a main competitor in commercial equipment.
- VertivVRT
Data center infrastructure company that competes with BASX in thermal management.
- Carrier GlobalCARR
Large HVAC manufacturer named in the source among competitors in comfort products.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report28 Aug 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Other events
- Current report13 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
- Current report10 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / AAON, Inc. · 02 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / AAON, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / AAON, Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.