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olivLaw · US equity research

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. ADTN

Telephone & Telegraph Apparatus · SIC 3661 · Vertical: Telephone & Telegraph Apparatus (SIC 3661)

4.73USD−6.52% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

ADTRAN Holdings is a global provider of networking platforms, software and services for fiber infrastructure, data center interconnect and broadband access. After a 17.5% revenue increase in fiscal 2025, the company reported second quarter 2026 revenue of 281.1 million USD, in a context where bandwidth demand and operator fiber investment remain high.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN) stock was 4.73 USD (−6.52% on the day), with market capitalisation 385.4 m USD, dividend yield 1.90%, beta 1.71, 52-week range 4.73–19.40 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 281.1 m USD (+6.1% YoY), net income of -10.9 m USD, diluted EPS -0.13 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
385.4 m USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.31 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-6.45%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.90%
DPS 12m 0.09
Beta (2y)
1.71
Volatility (1y) 72%
52-week range
4.7319.40

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
22.8
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
5.26 – 7.83
below the lower band · %B -0.21 · band width 39.3%
SMA 50 / 200
6.98 / 11.07
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.41 / -0.26
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−33.8%−1.1%−32.7 pp—
3 months−40.2%−0.5%−39.8 pp—
6 months−69.9%+4.4%−74.3 pp—
Year to date−45.6%+12.3%−57.9 pp—
1 year−40.2%+13.5%−53.7 pp−10.1%
3 years−35.1%+76.4%−111.5 pp−26.6%
5 years−77.1%+63.7%−140.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−75.6%
27 May 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−82.5%
19 Aug 2022 → 30 Apr 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−25.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
281.1 m USD
+6.1% YoY
Net income
-10.9 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.13
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-3.9% / -3.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue227.7 m242.9 m247.7 m265.1 m279.4 m291.6 m286.1 m281.1 m
Cost of revenue144.7 m153.3 m152.6 m166.1 m172.3 m177.8 m173.1 m177.2 m
Gross profit83.0 m89.6 m95.2 m98.9 m107.1 m113.7 m113.0 m104.0 m
Research & development51.6 m49.3 m48.9 m51.9 m51.7 m51.8 m50.8 m53.8 m
SG&A57.6 m57.0 m50.3 m60.3 m58.2 m57.4 m55.8 m60.2 m
Operating income-26.1 m-16.8 m-4.0 m-13.3 m-2.8 m4.5 m6.4 m-10.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation7.2 m22.6 m21.6 m7.6 m7.9 m24.2 m24.9 m8.1 m
Interest expense5.7 m4.9 m4.8 m4.6 m5.5 m4.5 m4.2 m4.2 m
Pre-tax income-30.6 m-20.2 m-9.3 m-17.2 m-6.6 m1.9 m2.8 m-7.9 m
Income tax390.0 k23.5 m-397.0 k1.0 m1.2 m3.2 m1.9 m788.0 k
Net income-33.3 m-46.1 m-11.3 m-20.5 m-10.3 m-3.6 m-1.3 m-10.9 m
Diluted EPS-0.38-0.58-0.14-0.24-0.12-0.05 ≈-0.01-0.13
Operating cash flow43.3 m ≈2.4 m43.2 m32.2 m ≈12.2 m ≈42.2 m12.7 m25.9 m ≈
Capex6.2 m ≈3.3 m7.4 m4.7 m ≈8.0 m ≈11.7 m7.5 m8.9 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue529.3 m530.1 m506.5 m563.0 m1.0 bn1.1 bn922.7 m1.1 bn
Revenue YoY−20.6%+0.1%−4.4%+11.2%+82.2%+12.0%−19.7%+17.5%
Net income-19.3 m-53.0 m2.4 m-8.6 m-2.0 m-268.9 m-459.9 m-45.7 m
Net income YoY−181.1%unavailableunavailable−463.1%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.40-1.110.05-0.18-0.03-3.43-5.79-0.52
Diluted EPS YoY−181.6%unavailableunavailable−460.0%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-3.7%-10.0%0.5%-1.5%-0.2%-23.4%-49.8%-4.2%
Free cash flow47.3 m-12.0 m-22.9 m-2.7 m-61.3 m-79.4 m69.1 m98.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
95.7 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
145.8 m USD
Total assets
1.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.76x
ROE
-33.5%
ROA
-3.8%
FCF margin
9.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.1 bn
2024
922.7 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
818.0 m
2024
598.6 m
2025
668.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
331.1 m
2024
324.2 m
2025
415.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
258.3 m
2024
221.5 m
2025
204.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
258.6 m
2024
232.9 m
2025
226.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-223.7 m
2024
-427.6 m
2025
-15.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
112.9 m
2024
90.5 m
2025
92.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-110.7 m ≈
2024
-337.0 m ≈
2025
77.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
16.3 m
2024
22.1 m
2025
19.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-233.6 m
2024
-442.7 m
2025
-31.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
28.3 m
2024
7.3 m
2025
5.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-268.9 m
2024
-459.9 m
2025
-45.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-3.43
2024
-5.79
2025
-0.52

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
78.4 m
2024
78.9 m
2025
79.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.09
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 15 Mar 2024verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
87.2 m
2024
76.0 m
2025
95.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
209.7 m
2024
178.0 m
2025
210.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
360.4 m
2024
261.6 m
2025
215.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
719.0 m
2024
599.1 m
2025
635.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
118.2 m
2024
106.5 m
2025
124.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
358.2 m
2024
52.9 m
2025
60.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
337.4 m
2024
284.9 m
2025
294.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
162.9 m
2024
171.8 m
2025
167.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
274.0 m
2024
293.5 m
2025
361.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
628.9 m
2024
621.5 m
2025
685.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
605.3 m
2024
127.0 m
2025
145.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-43.0 m
2024
103.6 m
2025
129.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
36.3 m
2024
34.5 m
2025
31.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-79.4 m ≈
2024
69.1 m ≈
2025
98.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-34.9 m
2024
-64.3 m
2025
-69.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
58.9 m
2024
-50.0 m
2025
-46.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
21.2 m
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
17.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
16.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
41.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
38.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
5.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-17.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
-0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
93.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
36.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
56.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
147.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
59 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
91 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
385.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
6.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
14.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

4.73 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 385.4 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
385.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
3.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-17.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
17.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Aug 2026
verified 2991derived 213

Score by group

72% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Telephone & Telegraph Apparatus (SIC 3661)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality38.5%0 (on a fixed band)15%
EBIT margin · Quality-0.2%50 (vs peers)12%
FCF margin · Quality5.0%20 (on a fixed band)12%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth1.9%7 (on a fixed band)24%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth17.5%50 (vs peers)12%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.8x58 (on a fixed band)9%
EV/Sales · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation14.8%100 (on a fixed band)18%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial58/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth22/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality22/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (ADTN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 17.5%; net margin -2.3%; ROE -17.4%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF yield: 14.8%

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 38.5%
  • FCF margin: 5.0%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.9%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Telephone & Telegraph Apparatus (SIC 3661) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 26.1x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
0.3x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−79.3%)
P/B
3.0x
vertical median 1.8x
above median (+63.9%)
ROE
-17.4%
vertical median 1.1%
below median (−1,758.5%)
Net margin
-2.3%
vertical median -0.5%
below median
EBIT margin
-0.2%
vertical median 2.7%
below median (−106.4%)
Revenue YoY
17.5%
vertical median 10.1%
above median (+72.8%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
1.9%
vertical median 4.0%
below median (−52.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CIENCiena Corp38.6 bn60.722.4%10.9%+18.8%+33% / +494%
FNFabrinet12.2 bn25.821.0%9.4%+35.7%−26% / +111%
CLFDClearfield, Inc.446.6 m—-2.8%-4.7%+19.6%+12% / +29%
ADTNADTRAN Holdings, Inc.385.4 m—-17.4%-2.3%+17.5%−40% / −35%
AUDCAudiocodes Ltd.219.2 m26.14.9%3.6%+1.4%−10% / −29%
FKWLFranklin Wireless Corp.25.0 m—-14.9%-13.0%−20.8%−52% / −27%
CLROClearone Inc13.4 m—-275.7%—unavailable−5% / −59%
SONMDNA X, Inc.3.8 m——-14.5%−37.7%−55% / −98%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ADTN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

    In brief

    ADTRAN Holdings is a global provider of networking platforms, software and services for fiber infrastructure, data center interconnect and broadband access. After a 17.5% revenue increase in fiscal 2025 1, the company reported second quarter 2026 revenue of 281.1 million USD 3, in a context where bandwidth demand and operator fiber investment remain high.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A broad portfolio of products and services covering the network core to the customer edge 1.
    • Revenue growth in fiscal 2025 and a recovery in optical sales 13.
    • The Mosaic One software platform and AI-driven SaaS applications 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Debt and restrictive credit agreement covenants are significant 1.
    • Material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting remain ongoing 3.
    • Operating expenses are relatively fixed in the short term, making rapid cost reduction difficult 1.

    Opportunities

    • BEAD public funding could open new orders in fiber access 1.
    • Demand from cloud providers and data centers could grow the optical segment 3.
    • Diversifying customers toward government and enterprises could reduce reliance on a single client 13.

    Threats

    • Payments to minority shareholders of Adtran Networks are contested in appraisal proceedings 1.
    • Revenue can swing sharply between quarters because of lengthy operator approvals 1.
    • Geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies could affect international operations 3.

    Risks

    • Credit agreement covenant compliancehigh

      The Wells Fargo credit agreement restricts dividends, debt and investments, and past non-compliance has led to events of default that could accelerate debt 1.

    • Payments under the domination agreementhigh

      The company must compensate minority shareholders of Adtran Networks and absorb annual losses, and appraisal proceedings could result in higher payments 12.

    • Revenue volatilitymedium

      Quarterly revenue is hard to predict because it depends on operator approvals and delivery timing 1.

    • Inventory managementmedium

      Excess inventory or cancelled orders could lead to write-downs and affect results 1.

    • Internal control weaknessesmedium

      Material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting are ongoing, which could weigh on investor confidence 3.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the recovery in operator spending and the BEAD program materialize, revenue could keep growing after the 2025 increase 1.
    • The optical segment and cloud and government customers are growing strongly and could diversify the revenue base 3.
    • Margins have improved and cost control has been tight, which could support profitability if volumes rise 13.

    What would break the thesis

    • Debt and credit restrictions could limit the company's flexibility during periods of weaker demand 1.
    • Payments to minority shareholders of the German subsidiary could rise if courts rule in their favor 12.
    • GAAP margins are below non-GAAP margins and GAAP operating losses show that profitability is fragile 3.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against third quarter 2026 revenue guidanceQ3 2026
    • Non-GAAP operating margin versus guidanceQ3 2026
    • Court decisions in the domination agreement appraisal proceedings2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results).

    The business

    ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. ('Adtran') operates through two reportable segments: Network Solutions, covering hardware and software products, and Services & Support, covering network design and implementation services, support and cloud-hosted SaaS applications for AI-driven operations 1. It reports revenue across three categories: Subscriber Solutions, Access & Aggregation Solutions and Optical Networking Solutions 1. Its global headquarters is in Huntsville, Alabama, and it holds Adtran Networks SE through a domination and profit and loss transfer agreement 1.

    Segments

    Network Solutions

    The Network Solutions segment includes residential gateways, optical network terminals, switches, Carrier Ethernet devices, optical line terminals and optical transport systems 1. It is the core hardware segment supporting operators' transition to full fiber networks 1.

    Services & Support

    The Services & Support segment offers design, implementation, maintenance and cloud-hosted services, including SaaS applications on the Mosaic One platform for optimizing fiber access networks and mesh Wi-Fi 1. The services are backed by a global support organization 1.

    Market context

    Bandwidth demand is rising because of connected devices, hybrid work, streaming video and artificial intelligence, and operators are moving to full fiber networks 1. The company describes customer spending returning to normalized levels, and public BEAD funding is expected to begin in 2026 1.

    Optical demand for data centers and interconnection benefits from hyperscale and cloud providers 3. However, operator purchase approval cycles can run from six to eighteen months or longer, and order timing can be lumpy 1.

    Trends

    • Return of operator spendingtailwind

      Revenue growth in 2025 was supported by normalized customer spending and fiber expansion 1. If this recovery holds, it could support volumes in the following periods.

    • Public BEAD fundingtailwind

      The BEAD public program is expected to begin in 2026 and offers a positive outlook for the company 1. The actual delivery timing will depend on how the program is implemented.

    • Long approval cycles and customer inventoriesmixed

      Operator approvals and reductions in customer inventories can delay sales and create quarter-to-quarter revenue swings 1. The effect is mixed, since approvals once obtained can strengthen the company's position.

    • Higher cost of capitalheadwind

      Current capital market conditions have increased borrowing rates and could raise the cost of capital if additional funding is needed 1. This factor may limit the company's flexibility.

    Competitive position

    The company competes on products, price, delivery and services, and operators usually prefer two or more suppliers for most products 1. The market is marked by rapid technological change and evolving industry standards 1.

    Competitive strengths cited include a broad portfolio from the network core to the customer edge, open architectures and AI-driven SaaS operations 1. The company relies on innovation in optics and software to defend its market position 1.

    • Network equipment suppliers to operators

      The reviewed sources do not name specific competitors; the company notes that operators generally require several suppliers for the same products 1.

    • Optical systems suppliers for data centers

      The sources do not name optical competitors; the company points to optical innovation and hyperscale demand as its basis for position 13.

    • Fiber access solution suppliers

      Competition in fiber access is described generically without naming companies in the filings reviewed 1.

    • Network software and services providers

      The sources mention competition in software and services without identifying specific competitors 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 10 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 03 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    • Current report03 Nov 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report29 Oct 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report10 Aug 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
    • Current report04 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report23 Jul 2026
      Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report22 Jul 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report26 Jun 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report18 May 2026
      Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report05 May 2026

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. · 26 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.