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olivLaw · US equity research

Alliance Entertainment Holding Corp. AENT

Wholesale-Durable Goods, NEC · SIC 5099 · Vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 509x)

4.25USD−3.19% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Alliance Entertainment is a global distributor and retailer of physical entertainment and collectible products, with over 340000 SKUs in stock and a portfolio expanding into premium collectibles and authentication. The company grew net revenues 8% in fiscal 2026, suggesting physical formats remain relevant in a market dominated by streaming.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Alliance Entertainment Holding Corp. (AENT) stock was 4.25 USD (−3.19% on the day), with market capitalisation 216.5 m USD, P/E 16.3 on diluted EPS of 0.26 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.25, 52-week range 4.25–8.43 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q4 2026): revenue of 500.0 k USD (+25.0% YoY), net income of -3.5 m USD (−161.1% YoY), diluted EPS -0.07 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
216.5 m USD
shares as of 09 May 2024
P/E (TTM)
16.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.26 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.12%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.25
Volatility (1y) 65%
52-week range
4.258.43

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
38.5
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
4.21 – 4.85
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.07 · band width 14.3%
SMA 50 / 200
4.83 / 5.94
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.11 / -0.10
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−7.6%−1.1%−6.5 pp—
3 months−25.3%−0.5%−24.9 pp—
6 months−41.9%+4.4%−46.3 pp—
Year to date−47.4%+12.3%−59.7 pp—
1 year−36.6%+13.5%−50.1 pp−39.9%
3 years+282.9%+76.4%+206.5 pp−37.6%
5 years−56.8%+63.7%−120.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−49.6%
29 Dec 2025 → 05 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−92.9%
17 Jan 2023 → 15 Dec 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
−15.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q4 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
500.0 k USD
+25.0% YoY
Net income
-3.5 m USD
−161.1% YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.07
−161.2% YoY
net / operating
-704.2% / -785.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26
Revenue0800.0 k700.0 k400.0 k870.0 k700.0 k600.0 k500.0 k
Cost of revenue203.5 m351.4 m184.0 m-738.8 m216.8 m321.6 m225.2 m233.1 m
SG&A13.1 m13.8 m14.2 m14.9 m15.1 m16.6 m16.9 m17.6 m
Operating income2.1 m14.8 m3.5 m9.7 m10.5 m17.3 m3.3 m-3.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation426.0 k400.0 k1.4 m548.0 k442.0 k1.3 m1.4 m454.0 k
Interest expense2.8 m2.0 m1.5 m1.6 m1.6 m1.7 m1.5 m200.0 k
Pre-tax income-760.0 k9.4 m2.8 m7.3 m6.7 m13.0 m2.6 m-3.5 m
Income tax-1.2 m2.4 m919.0 k1.5 m1.9 m3.6 m323.0 k-13.0 k
Net income397.0 k7.1 m1.9 m5.8 m4.9 m9.4 m2.3 m-3.5 m
Diluted EPS0.010.140.040.11 ≈0.100.180.05-0.07 ≈
Operating cash flow-11.6 m25.3 m ≈2.5 m ≈10.7 m2.7 m-16.5 m ≈21.1 m ≈-9.0 m
Capex10.0 k0 ≈42.0 k ≈2.0 k345.0 k367.0 k ≈262.0 k ≈100.0 k

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 44 percentile of its own 9-quarter history (min 12.5, median 17.3, max 70.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202120222023202420252026
Revenueunavailable1.4 bn16.8 m8.4 m2.7 m2.7 m
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailable−98.8%−50.0%−67.9%0.0%
Net income3.2 m2.9 m-35.4 m4.6 m15.1 m13.1 m
Net income YoYunavailable−9.3%−1,302.8%unavailable+229.1%−13.4%
Diluted EPSunavailable0.60-0.740.090.300.26
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable−223.3%unavailable+233.3%−13.3%
net %unavailable0.2%-210.7%54.5%558.4%483.6%
Free cash flowunavailable-1.3 m2.6 m55.6 m26.8 m-2.8 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Cash
814.0 k USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
116.6 m USD
Total assets
397.6 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.34x
ROE
11.9%
ROA
3.4%
FCF margin
-102.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
8.4 m
2025
2.7 m
2026
2.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
1.0 m
2025
0
2026
996.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
7.4 m ≈
2025
2.7 m ≈
2026
-994.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026derived

SG&A
2024
57.7 m
2025
56.0 m
2026
66.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Operating income
2024
14.1 m
2025
30.1 m
2026
27.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
1.9 m
2025
1.8 m
2026
1.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
16.0 m ≈
2025
32.0 m ≈
2026
29.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
11.2 m
2025
7.2 m
2026
4.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
1.9 m
2025
18.7 m
2026
18.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Income tax
2024
-2.7 m
2025
3.6 m
2026
5.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Net income
2024
4.6 m
2025
15.1 m
2026
13.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
0.09
2025
0.30
2026
0.26

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
50.8 m
2025
51.0 m
2026
51.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
1.1 m
2025
1.2 m
2026
814.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Receivables
2024
92.4 m
2025
95.0 m
2026
111.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Inventories
2024
97.4 m
2025
102.8 m
2026
126.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Current assets
2024
196.2 m
2025
218.1 m
2026
248.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
12.9 m
2025
11.3 m
2026
10.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
89.1 m
2025
89.1 m
2026
94.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
13.4 m
2025
18.5 m
2026
18.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Total assets
2024
340.8 m
2025
361.2 m
2026
397.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
133.2 m
2025
155.3 m
2026
171.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
73.0 m
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Sept 2024verified

Current liabilities
2024
147.9 m
2025
172.7 m
2026
185.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
253.2 m
2025
258.0 m
2026
281.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Equity
2024
87.6 m †
2025
103.2 m †
2026
116.6 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
55.8 m
2025
26.8 m
2026
-1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Capex
2024
183.0 k
2025
54.0 k
2026
1.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
55.6 m ≈
2025
26.8 m ≈
2026
-2.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-117.0 k
2025
-8.1 m
2026
-2.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-55.4 m
2025
-18.6 m
2026
3.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Sept 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-45.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
-9.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
-13.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
32.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
-13.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
-110.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
-36,813.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBITDA margin
1,074.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EBIT margin
1,008.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net margin
483.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF margin
-102.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Returns

ROE
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
12.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
5.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-1.7 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Capital expenditure
1.1 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Free cash flow
-2.8 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2026
FCF conversion
-21.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Cash conversion
-5.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
13,928 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
42 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
60 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
13,911 days
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
216.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
16.6x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Earnings yield
6.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
80.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-1.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

4.25 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 216.5 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
216.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.3x
computed by olivLawFY 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
11.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
483.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
0.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 09 May 2024
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Sept 2026
verified 706derived 58

Score by group

50% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
1.21
USD per share
Mid
3.23
USD per share
High
5.05
USD per share
Price: 4.25 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -24.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -31.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.21 – 5.05 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E1.21 – 5.05 (Mid 3.23)
    5 companies used · median multiple 12.4x · quartiles 4.6x – 19.4x
    CNM, GOLD, POOL, SORA, YDDL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 509x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality483.6%100 (vs peers)13%
FCF conversion · Quality-21.2%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-45.6%0 (on a fixed band)17%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet5.6x62 (on a fixed band)13%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.3x45 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation16.3x40 (vs peers)21%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-1.3%0 (on a fixed band)17%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet55/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality50/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation22/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ALLIANCE ENTERTAINMENT HOLDING CORPORATION (AENT). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.7 m USD in 2026; YoY growth 0.0%; net margin 483.6%; ROE 11.9%.

The estimated value range is 1.21–5.05 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 3.23 USD, the price of 4.25 USD leaves a potential of -24.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -31.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 50.0% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 483.6%

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: -21.2%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -45.6%
  • FCF yield: -1.3%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 509x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
16.3x
vertical median 12.4x
above median (+31.6%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
80.2x
vertical median 1.4x
above median (+5,543.3%)
P/B
1.9x
vertical median 1.2x
above median (+48.6%)
ROE
11.9%
vertical median 23.4%
below median (−49.3%)
Net margin
483.6%
vertical median 6.0%
above median (+8,011.1%)
EBIT margin
1,008.1%
vertical median -2.4%
above median
Revenue YoY
0.0%
vertical median -0.4%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
POOLPool Corporation7.7 bn19.930.4%7.3%−0.4%−11% / −38%
GOLDGold.com, Inc.1.1 bn12.410.8%0.3%+132.4%+31% / +31%
AENTAlliance Entertainment Holding Corporation216.5 m16.311.9%483.6%0.0%−37% / +283%
SORAAsiaStrategy57.9 m4.6106.1%111.9%−37.7%−40% / unavailable
BGMSBio Green Med Solution, Inc.5.7 m—-40.8%-204.0%−100.0%−43% / −100%
GNLNGreenlane Holdings, Inc.847.3 k—-534.0%-4,630.6%−67.2%−95% / −100%
CNMCore & Main, Inc.—19.423.4%6.0%+2.8%−3% / +34%
YDDLOne and one Green Technologies. INC—4.537.8%17.9%+23.1%−80% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for AENT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
2.24
Total return -47% · Per year -47%
3.98
Total return -6% · Per year -6%
6.02
Total return 42% · Per year 42%
3 years
1.78
Total return -58% · Per year -25%
3.59
Total return -15% · Per year -5%
6.02
Total return 42% · Per year 12%
5 years
1.41
Total return -67% · Per year -20%
3.24
Total return -24% · Per year -5%
6.02
Total return 42% · Per year 7%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 0.90
  • Net margin± 0.63
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.57
  • Annual dilution± 0.05

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Alliance Entertainment is a global distributor and retailer of physical entertainment and collectible products, with over 340000 SKUs in stock and a portfolio expanding into premium collectibles and authentication. The company grew net revenues 8% in fiscal 2026, suggesting physical formats remain relevant in a market dominated by streaming.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has long experience in distribution and a broad product portfolio, with automated fulfilment capabilities and relationships with major studios and retailers.
  • Exclusive distribution agreements for major studios' physical content strengthen the company's position as a scaled partner for physical entertainment.
  • Gross margin and adjusted profit growth show an ability to extract value from premium products and categories with better margins.

Weaknesses

  • Working capital grew faster than revenue, and operating cash flow was negative in fiscal 2026.
  • The company recorded a non-cash write-off of a historical vendor rebate receivable, which weighed on reported net income.
  • Administrative expenses rose with personnel and consulting costs, which could limit operating margin expansion.

Opportunities

  • Collectibles and authenticated products could become a higher-margin revenue source if adoption continues.
  • Retailers and studios that outsource physical distribution could create new contracts for fulfilment and exclusive distribution.
  • Lower borrowing costs could support investment in automation and technology, if these translate into operating efficiency.

Threats

  • Consumer migration to streaming and direct-to-digital release could reduce demand for traditional categories.
  • Tariffs and changes in trade policy could raise acquisition costs and weigh on gross margin.
  • Competition from larger retailers and distributors could pressure pricing and vendor terms.

Risks

  • Dependence on technology and formatshigh

    If the company fails to adapt quickly to technological change in music, video and gaming, its business could be affected.

  • Supply chain pressurehigh

    Logistics and supply disruptions have raised acquisition costs and could lead to lost sales or contractual penalties.

  • Indebtedness and covenantsmedium

    The revolving credit facility and financing restrictions could limit financial flexibility, particularly if economic conditions worsen.

  • Inventory riskmedium

    Large product inventories could lead to write-downs or storage costs if demand does not materialise as forecast.

  • Related-party transactionslow

    Transactions with related parties may create conflicts of interest, and inadequate oversight could weigh on investor confidence.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If demand for premium physical products and collectibles continues, the company could benefit from its scaled distribution position and partnerships with major studios.
  • Gross margin and adjusted profit growth suggest that the higher-value product strategy could support more balanced development.
  • Automation and fulfilment capabilities could attract retailers that outsource distribution, potentially producing more stable revenue.

What would break the thesis

  • If the shift to streaming accelerates, physical categories could decline faster than management expects, affecting volumes.
  • Rising working capital and negative operating cash flow could limit the company's ability to turn profit into cash.
  • Tariffs and competition from larger players could compress margins, particularly if acquisition costs rise.

What to watch

  • Evolution of gross margin and administrative costsQ1 2027
  • Trend in working capital and operating cash flow2027
  • Contribution of collectibles and authenticated products to revenuenext 10-K
  • Impact of tariffs and trade policy on cost of sales2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Alliance Entertainment distributes vinyl, CDs, DVDs, Blu-ray, video games, electronics and licensed products, serving more than 35000 retail locations and about 200 online storefronts in over 75 countries. The company combines wholesale distribution with direct-to-consumer sales and fulfilment services for retailers, supported by automation at its Shepherdsville warehouse.

Recently Alliance expanded its portfolio through Alliance Home Entertainment, which exclusively distributes Paramount Pictures physical content and, from January 2026, Amazon MGM Studios content. The company also acquired Handmade by Robots, a designer of licensed collectible figures, and Endstate Authentic, which brings NFC technology for product authentication.

Revenue is dominated by vinyl and DVD/Blu-ray, with video games and CDs completing the portfolio. Management describes its strategy through three pillars, Service, Selection and Technology, and recent developments point to a shift toward premium and collectible products with higher margins.

Segments

Vinyl and DVD/Blu-ray

Vinyl represented about 33% of consolidated revenue in fiscal 2026, and DVD, Blu-ray and UltraHD about 30%. These are the company's largest categories and reflect demand for premium physical formats.

Games and CDs

Video games represented about 16% of revenue in fiscal 2026, and CDs about 14%. Game distribution relies on relationships with major publishers, while CDs grew over the last year.

Collectibles and third-party distribution

Collectibles and licensed merchandise are growing as a share of sales, supported by Handmade by Robots and Alliance Authentic. Fulfilment and 3PL services for retailers complement the segment, with revenue growth in fiscal 2026.

Market context

The physical entertainment market is contracting overall as streaming grows, but collector and enthusiast niches show growth. Retailers are reducing shelf space for physical products, which favours distributors with direct-to-consumer and fulfilment capabilities.

E-commerce and demand for fulfilment services are growing in North America, and content owners are outsourcing physical distribution. This dynamic could favour a scaled distributor if demand for premium products holds.

Trends

  • Demand for premium physical formatstailwind

    Companies report sustained demand for vinyl, special editions and box sets, and physical movie sales rose 22% in fiscal 2026. If this preference persists, the premium product portfolio could support margins.

  • Migration to streamingheadwind

    Many releases go directly to streaming platforms without a physical format, and management acknowledges that the overall effect on revenue is hard to predict. This structural pressure could limit growth in classic categories.

  • Retail shelf reductionsmixed

    Large chains are reducing space for physical products, which may push retailers to outsource fulfilment. The company believes this favours its distribution model, but the effect depends on how quickly demand shifts.

  • Tariffs and trade policyheadwind

    IEEPA tariffs were invalidated in February 2026, but other tariffs remain in force, and the company says its current exposure has not been material. Escalating tariffs could still affect cost of sales and gross margin.

Competitive position

The company competes with many small and large distributors, as well as e-commerce retailers and platforms building brands across several categories. Competitors with greater resources may secure better vendor terms and invest more in technology and marketing.

Specialised distributors have an agility advantage in niches, and partnerships with artists for exclusive releases are a differentiator. The company argues that its scale, portfolio and fulfilment capabilities give it an edge, but competitive pressure could increase.

  • E-commerce retailers and general platforms

    Compete for consumer attention and spending, with greater resources and better vendor terms, as described in the company's filing.

  • Large entertainment distributors

    Operate at national scale and may negotiate more favourable terms with publishers and studios, according to the risk factors.

  • Specialised niche distributors

    Can be more agile in responding to market trends and compete on exclusive products for collectors.

  • Entertainment companies with multi-category brands

    Build brands across several consumer categories, including through content, and can compete for consumer attention.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 14 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 16 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report16 Oct 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement24 Sept 2026
  • Current report10 Sept 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Annual report10 Sept 2026
  • Current report28 Aug 2026
    Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Jul 2026
    Amendments to articles or bylaws · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report29 Jun 2026
    Shareholder vote
  • Current report14 May 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report14 May 2026
  • Current report13 Feb 2026
    Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Alliance Entertainment Holding Corp. · 10 Sept 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Alliance Entertainment Holding Corp. · 10 Sept 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.