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olivLaw · US equity research

Core & Main, Inc. CNM

Wholesale-Durable Goods, NEC · SIC 5099 · Vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 509x)

48.63USD+8.38% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Core & Main is a specialty distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage and fire protection products, operating a network of over 370 branches in the United States and Canada and serving municipalities, private water companies and professional contractors. Net sales of 2,145 million USD in the quarter ended August 2, 2026 show moderate growth, and the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) stock was 48.63 USD (+8.38% on the day), with P/E 20.1 on diluted EPS of 2.42 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.06, 52-week range 40.35–59.09 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 2.1 bn USD (+2.5% YoY), net income of 144.0 m USD (+7.5% YoY), diluted EPS 0.77 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
unavailable
P/E (TTM)
20.1
Diluted EPS TTM 2.42 · TTM to 02 Aug 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.97%
TTM to 02 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.06
Volatility (1y) 34%
52-week range
40.3559.09

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
79.0
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
38.49 – 46.45
above the upper band · %B 1.27 · band width 18.7%
SMA 50 / 200
42.40 / 47.76
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.00 / 0.33
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+16.3%−1.1%+17.4 pp—
3 months+4.5%−0.5%+5.0 pp—
6 months−4.0%+4.4%−8.4 pp—
Year to date−6.4%+12.3%−18.7 pp—
1 year−5.1%+13.5%−18.7 pp−37.4%
3 years+52.5%+76.4%−23.9 pp−36.9%
5 years+79.4%+63.7%+15.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−31.7%
22 Jan 2026 → 09 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−40.0%
29 Dec 2021 → 28 Dec 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+12.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 02 Aug 2026

Revenue
2.1 bn USD
+2.5% YoY
Net income
144.0 m USD
+7.5% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.77
+10.0% YoY
net / operating
6.7% / 10.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue2.0 bn1.7 bn1.9 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn1.6 bn1.9 bn2.1 bn
Cost of revenue1.5 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn1.2 bn1.4 bn1.6 bn
Gross profit543.0 m451.0 m510.0 m560.0 m561.0 m428.0 m520.0 m573.0 m
SG&A274.0 m279.0 m293.0 m302.0 m295.0 m264.0 m299.0 m301.0 m
Operating income223.0 m124.0 m171.0 m213.0 m220.0 m118.0 m177.0 m227.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation46.0 m50.0 m48.0 m45.0 m46.0 m48.0 m47.0 m45.0 m
Interest expense36.0 m36.0 m30.0 m31.0 m30.0 m29.0 m27.0 m32.0 m
Pre-tax income187.0 m88.0 m141.0 m182.0 m190.0 m94.0 m150.0 m193.0 m
Income tax47.0 m21.0 m36.0 m41.0 m47.0 m21.0 m37.0 m43.0 m
Net income133.0 m64.0 m100.0 m134.0 m137.0 m70.0 m108.0 m144.0 m
Diluted EPS0.690.32 ≈0.520.700.720.36 ≈0.570.77
Operating cash flow260.0 m ≈235.0 m77.0 m34.0 m ≈271.0 m ≈268.0 m82.0 m62.0 m ≈
Capex8.0 m ≈11.0 m13.0 m10.0 m ≈8.0 m ≈15.0 m14.0 m18.0 m ≈
Share repurchases100.0 m ≈55.0 m39.0 m8.0 m ≈50.0 m ≈58.0 m88.0 m169.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 18-quarter history (min 7.6, median 20.1, max 28.1; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2020202120222023202420252026
Revenue3.4 bn3.6 bn5.0 bn6.7 bn6.7 bn7.4 bn7.6 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+7.5%+37.4%+32.9%+0.8%+11.0%+2.8%
Net income36.0 m37.0 m166.0 m366.0 m371.0 m411.0 m441.0 m
Net income YoYunavailable+2.8%+348.6%+120.5%+1.4%+10.8%+7.3%
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailable0.552.132.152.132.31
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable+287.3%+0.9%−0.9%+8.5%
net %1.1%1.0%3.3%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.8%
Free cash flow180.0 m202.0 m-51.0 m376.0 m1.0 bn586.0 m604.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 01 Feb 2026

Cash
220.0 m USD
Financial debt
2.1 bn USD
Net debt
1.9 bn USD
Equity
2.1 bn USD
Total assets
6.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.04x
Current ratio
2.63x
ROE
22.9%
ROA
7.4%
FCF margin
7.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
6.7 bn
2025
7.4 bn
2026
7.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
4.9 bn
2025
5.5 bn
2026
5.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.0 bn
2026
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2024
931.0 m
2025
1.1 bn
2026
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2024
740.0 m
2025
719.0 m
2026
722.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
154.0 m
2025
194.0 m
2026
192.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
894.0 m ≈
2025
913.0 m ≈
2026
914.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
81.0 m
2025
142.0 m
2026
120.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
659.0 m
2025
577.0 m
2026
607.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2024
128.0 m
2025
143.0 m
2026
145.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
371.0 m
2025
411.0 m
2026
441.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
2.15
2025
2.13
2026
2.31

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
227.8 m
2025
201.4 m
2026
197.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
1.0 m
2025
8.0 m
2026
220.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2024
888.0 m
2025
986.0 m
2026
981.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2024
766.0 m
2025
908.0 m
2026
986.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.0 bn
2026
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
151.0 m
2025
168.0 m
2026
178.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.9 bn
2026
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
784.0 m
2025
935.0 m
2026
823.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
5.1 bn
2025
5.9 bn
2026
6.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
504.0 m
2025
562.0 m
2026
512.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2024
15.0 m
2025
24.0 m
2026
24.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
1.9 bn
2025
2.2 bn
2026
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
774.0 m
2025
866.0 m
2026
874.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
3.5 bn
2025
4.1 bn
2026
4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.8 bn
2026
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
1.1 bn
2025
621.0 m
2026
650.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
39.0 m
2025
35.0 m
2026
46.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
1.0 bn ≈
2025
586.0 m ≈
2026
604.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-270.0 m
2025
-788.0 m
2026
-145.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-975.0 m
2025
174.0 m
2026
-293.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
1.3 bn
2025
176.0 m
2026
155.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
16.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
0.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
64.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
8.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
3.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
27.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
EBITDA margin
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
EBIT margin
9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Net margin
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
FCF margin
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026

Returns

ROE
23.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
ROA
7.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
ROIC
13.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
ROCE
13.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
2.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Debt / equity
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Interest coverage
6.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Quick ratio
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 02 Aug 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
683.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Capital expenditure
55.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Free cash flow
628.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
FCF conversion
136.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Cash conversion
73.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
63 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Days inventory outstanding
71 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Days payables outstanding
51 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Cash conversion cycle
83 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
20.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Earnings yield
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
P/S
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 55 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

48.63 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: unavailable

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
unavailable
input data missing
P/E (TTM)
20.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
P/B
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
23.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 02 Aug 2026
Net margin
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 02 Aug 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 02 Aug 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 02 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 09 Sept 2026
verified 969derived 88

Score by group

  • Balance sheet66
  • Quality79
  • Valuation20
  • Growth29

Estimated value range

Low
11.72
USD per share
Mid
33.15
USD per share
High
40.80
USD per share
Price: 48.63 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -31.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -46.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 11.72 – 40.80 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E11.72 – 40.80 (Mid 33.15)
    5 companies used · median multiple 13.7x · quartiles 4.8x – 16.9x
    AENT, GOLD, POOL, SORA, YDDL
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 509x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 55/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality13.4%88 (on a fixed band)15%
Net margin · Quality6.0%43 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Quality136.8%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.8%40 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth2.7%18 (on a fixed band)12%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.3x48 (on a fixed band)15%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet6.3x74 (on a fixed band)9%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.5x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation20.1x20 (vs peers)15%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet66/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth29/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality79/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial20/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Core & Main, Inc. (CNM). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-02.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.6 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 2.8%; net margin 6.0%; ROE 23.4%; net debt/EBITDA 2.3x.

The estimated value range is 11.72–40.80 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 33.15 USD, the price of 48.63 USD leaves a potential of -31.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -46.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 55/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns, valuation. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 13.4%
  • FCF conversion: 136.8%
  • Interest coverage: 6.3x
  • Current ratio: 2.5x

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 2.7%
  • P/E (TTM): 20.1x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale — durable goods (SIC 509x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 7 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
20.1x
vertical median 13.7x
above median (+46.7%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
—
vertical median 3.5x
P/B
—
vertical median 1.6x
ROE
23.4%
vertical median 11.9%
above median (+97.3%)
Net margin
6.0%
vertical median 7.3%
below median (−18.0%)
EBIT margin
9.6%
vertical median -1.9%
above median
Revenue YoY
2.8%
vertical median -0.4%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
2.3x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
POOLPool Corporation7.8 bn20.230.4%7.3%−0.4%−10% / −37%
GOLDGold.com, Inc.1.2 bn13.710.8%0.3%+132.4%+44% / +45%
AENTAlliance Entertainment Holding Corporation223.6 m16.911.9%483.6%0.0%−34% / +362%
SORAAsiaStrategy60.4 m4.8106.1%111.9%−37.7%−37% / unavailable
BGMSBio Green Med Solution, Inc.5.9 m—-40.8%-204.0%−100.0%−41% / −100%
GNLNGreenlane Holdings, Inc.871.7 k—-534.0%-4,630.6%−67.2%−95% / −100%
CNMCore & Main, Inc.—20.123.4%6.0%+2.8%−5% / +52%
YDDLOne and one Green Technologies. INC—4.637.8%17.9%+23.1%−79% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for CNM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Scenarios are not available. input data missing

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Core & Main is a specialty distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage and fire protection products, operating a network of over 370 branches in the United States and Canada and serving municipalities, private water companies and professional contractors 1. Net sales of 2,145 million USD in the quarter ended August 2, 2026 show moderate growth, and the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The national branch network and local access to customers and suppliers form an operating base that is hard to replicate 1.
  • A very broad product portfolio and technical expertise support relationships with municipal customers 1.
  • The company has shown acquisition and integration capability and enough cash generation to fund share repurchases 3.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on cyclical and rate-sensitive construction demand exposes revenue to downturns 1.
  • Net debt is significant and interest costs remain relevant for profit margins 3.
  • Volatile procurement prices could weigh on margins if they cannot be passed on quickly to customers 1.

Opportunities

  • Federal water funds, if allocated efficiently, could generate additional municipal projects 1.
  • The fragmented market offers acquisition opportunities, and greenfield expansion can widen geographic reach 3.
  • Large projects such as treatment plants and data centers showed strong growth according to the results release 3.

Threats

  • Price-based bidding could lead to losing contracts to lower-cost competitors 1.
  • New or replacement tariffs could raise the cost of imported products 2.
  • Delays in allocating federal funds could postpone municipal projects and expected revenue 1.

Risks

  • Construction cyclicalityhigh

    A slowdown in residential and non-residential construction could reduce sales, particularly if interest rates remain high 1.

  • Delayed municipal fundingmedium

    Municipal budget difficulties or delays in federal funds could postpone projects and sales 1.

  • Volatile procurement pricesmedium

    If product prices rise faster than they can be passed on to customers, gross margin could be affected 1.

  • Debt and interest costsmedium

    Variable-rate debt exposes the company to higher financing costs, although part of the risk is hedged with swaps 2.

  • Tariffs and international tradelow

    Changes in tariff policy could alter costs for imported products, although the disclosed exposure is limited 2.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If federal water funding is largely deployed, municipal demand could support sales growth over several years 1.
  • Its position as one of two national distributors and its broad network could let the company gain share from a fragmented sector 1.
  • Growing adjusted EBITDA alongside share repurchases could support growth in earnings per share 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If interest rates stay high or construction slows, sales in the residential and non-residential segments could decline 1.
  • Price-based bidding could erode margins if lower-cost competitors win municipal contracts 1.
  • High net debt limits financial flexibility, particularly if cash generation weakens 3.

What to watch

  • Delivery against the fiscal 2026 outlook of 7,800-7,900 million USD in net sales and 950-980 million USD in adjusted EBITDAQ4 2026
  • Municipal demand trends and the actual allocation of IIJA funds2027
  • Effect of replacement tariffs on procurement costsQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

The stated strategy combines geographic expansion in underpenetrated areas, growing share with strategic accounts, accelerating adoption of new products and selective acquisitions run through a structured M&A process 1. The company also aims to expand gross margin through private label products, sourcing optimization and data-driven pricing 1. Talent development is presented as a third pillar supporting local service 1.

In the second quarter of fiscal 2026 the company opened seven greenfield locations during the year and repurchased 169 million USD of shares in the quarter; net debt at August 2, 2026 stood at 2,166 million USD 3.

Segments

Municipal

The municipal segment accounted for about 44% of net sales in fiscal 2025, tied to repair, replacement and expansion of water and wastewater systems; the company describes demand as steady over the long term because aging infrastructure must be replaced 1.

Non-residential

The non-residential segment accounted for about 38% of net sales in fiscal 2025 and covers commercial, industrial, institutional, warehouse and road projects; the company notes fire protection products are typically installed later in construction projects 1.

Residential

The residential segment accounted for about 18% of net sales in fiscal 2025 and is linked to land and lot development for single-family housing, with products installed in the early stages of development 1.

Market context

The company estimates its addressable market in the United States and Canada for water, wastewater, storm drainage and fire protection distribution at about 44 billion USD in sales in fiscal 2025 1. The market is described as highly fragmented, with only two national distributors of comparable scale 1. Demand depends on municipal spending, utility rates, interest rates and residential and commercial construction 1.

The IIJA allocation of 55 billion USD for U.S. water infrastructure is considered by the company to be largely unrealized, which could support municipal demand in coming years 1. Interest rates remain a sensitive factor for residential and non-residential construction, and the Federal Reserve has not clearly signalled its future direction 1.

Trends

  • Water infrastructure fundingmixed

    Federal investment through the IIJA could accelerate municipal projects, but delays in allocating funds could postpone benefits for distributors 1.

  • Interest rates and constructionheadwind

    Interest rates influence residential and non-residential demand; if rates stay high, new construction could slow 1.

  • Acquisitions and market consolidationtailwind

    The fragmented market offers acquisition opportunities, and the company says its acquisition pipeline is active 3.

  • Product costs and tariffsmixed

    Procurement prices are volatile and tariffs could raise costs, although the company says most products it buys are manufactured domestically 2.

Competitive position

The market is intensely competitive and fragmented, with many regional and local distributors; the company says it is one of only two national distributors in this market 1. Municipal contracts are often awarded through price-based bidding, which could lead to losing contracts to lower-cost competitors 1.

Competitive pressure may also rise from alternatives to distribution in the supply chain, a risk the company acknowledges 1. Its stated advantages are local networks, a broad portfolio and project planning capabilities 1.

  • The other national water distributor

    The company states it operates alongside one other national distributor in this market, which is not named in the analysed source 1.

  • Regional and local distributors

    The company describes numerous smaller competitors that may offer lower prices in municipal bids 1.

  • Suppliers selling directly to customers

    The company notes that alternatives to distribution in the supply chain could increase competitive pressure 1.

  • Specialist drainage and fitting distributors

    Specialised competitors in particular product categories, harder to identify individually from the available sources 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-02-01 · SEC / Core & Main, Inc. · 24 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-02 · SEC / Core & Main, Inc. · 09 Sept 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Core & Main, Inc. · 09 Sept 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.