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olivLaw · US equity research

agilon health, inc. AGL

Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC · SIC 8090 · Vertical: Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC (SIC 8090)

96.23USD+9.61% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

agilon health empowers primary care physicians in their communities to manage the total healthcare needs of Medicare Advantage patients through risk-bearing capitation arrangements. The company is working through losses and a shifting membership base, but in the second quarter of 2026 it raised its full-year outlook, making the trajectory of medical margin and Adjusted EBITDA worth watching closely.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, agilon health, inc. (AGL) stock was 96.23 USD (+9.61% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.6 bn USD, P/E 16.5 on diluted EPS of 5.83 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.88, 52-week range 7.91–129.84 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.5 bn USD (+5.9% YoY), net income of 34.9 m USD, diluted EPS 1.97 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.6 bn USD
shares as of 29 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.5
Diluted EPS TTM 5.83 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.06%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.88
Volatility (1y) 140%
52-week range
7.91129.84

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
63.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
81.94 – 94.51
above the upper band · %B 1.14 · band width 14.2%
SMA 50 / 200
87.55 / 65.97
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.87 / 0.45
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+14.2%−1.1%+15.3 pp—
3 months−10.8%−0.5%−10.3 pp—
6 months+245.5%+4.4%+241.1 pp—
Year to date+458.7%+12.3%+446.3 pp—
1 year+431.7%+13.5%+418.1 pp+14.1%
3 years−73.7%+76.4%−150.2 pp−5.2%
5 years−84.6%+63.7%−148.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−69.0%
15 Jan 2026 → 31 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−98.9%
24 Mar 2023 → 31 Mar 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−31.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.5 bn USD
+5.9% YoY
Net income
34.9 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
1.97
unavailable YoY
net / operating
2.3% / 1.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.5 bn1.5 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.6 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn
Operating income-108.1 m-22.1 m-116.0 m-131.3 m-193.8 m4.0 m11.8 m24.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation6.5 m6.9 m7.3 m7.4 m7.0 m6.8 m6.9 m6.7 m
Interest expense1.6 m1.5 m1.6 m1.8 m1.7 m1.8 m1.6 m1.7 m
Pre-tax income-104.7 m-1.7 m-104.3 m-110.5 m-187.6 m29.9 m17.6 m38.9 m
Income tax1.8 m196.0 k62.0 k-331.0 k1.3 m28.0 k-375.0 k4.0 m
Net income-105.8 m12.1 m-104.4 m-110.2 m-188.9 m48.9 m18.0 m34.9 m
Diluted EPS—0.73-6.31-6.65-0.12 ≈2.941.041.97
Operating cash flow16.4 m-32.0 m-35.1 m ≈-18.2 m ≈-20.5 m23.7 m-57.3 m ≈49.9 m ≈
Capex3.3 m3.8 m3.3 m ≈3.2 m ≈3.0 m3.1 m3.4 m ≈3.3 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 1-quarter history (min 13.6, median 13.6, max 13.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue794.4 m1.2 bn1.5 bn2.4 bn4.3 bn6.1 bn5.9 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+53.4%+24.9%+57.0%+80.7%+40.4%−2.1%
Net income-282.6 m-60.1 m-406.5 m-106.6 m-262.6 m-260.2 m-391.3 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-35.6%-4.9%-26.7%-4.5%-6.1%-4.3%-6.6%
Free cash flow-106.8 m-55.0 m-154.7 m-146.2 m-172.0 m-71.0 m-119.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
173.7 m USD
Financial debt
35.0 m USD
Net debt
-138.7 m USD
Equity
126.7 m USD
Total assets
1.3 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.28x
Current ratio
1.02x
ROE
-131.0%
ROA
-26.0%
FCF margin
-2.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.3 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
5.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-232.1 m
2024
-292.1 m
2025
-463.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
20.2 m
2024
24.5 m
2025
28.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-212.0 m ≈
2024
-267.7 m ≈
2025
-434.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
6.7 m
2024
6.2 m
2025
6.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-194.5 m
2024
-248.8 m
2025
-404.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
791.0 k
2024
1.5 m
2025
1.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-262.6 m
2024
-260.2 m
2025
-391.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
408.9 m
2024
411.0 m
2025
414.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
107.6 m
2024
188.2 m
2025
173.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
27.6 m
2024
28.2 m
2025
25.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
24.1 m
2024
24.1 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
63.8 m
2024
72.8 m
2025
65.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
239.4 m
2024
220.3 m
2025
127.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
6.3 m
2024
0
2025
19.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
32.3 m
2024
34.9 m
2025
15.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
977.2 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
661.0 m
2024
471.0 m
2025
126.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-156.2 m
2024
-57.8 m
2025
-105.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
15.8 m
2024
13.3 m
2025
13.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-172.0 m ≈
2024
-71.0 m ≈
2025
-119.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-44.0 m
2024
139.9 m
2025
88.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-193.1 m
2024
-2.6 m
2025
-3.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
200.0 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2024verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
35.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
37.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
-2.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
-2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
-0.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
-29.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
-5.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
-84.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
-46.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-143.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
-22.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-4.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
12.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-17.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
1.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
16.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
6.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-1.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

96.23 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
5.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-29.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
-1.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 29 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Nov 2026
verified 850derived 67

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
50.87
USD per share
Mid
118.78
USD per share
High
157.95
USD per share
Price: 96.23 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 23.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 19.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 50.87 – 157.95 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/E50.87 – 157.95 (Mid 118.78)
    6 companies used · median multiple 20.4x · quartiles 8.7x – 27.1x
    DVA, FMS, NIVF, PGNY, SHC, VMD
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC (SIC 8090)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-84.4%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Net margin · Quality-1.5%30 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth35.4%100 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-22.4x0 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x28 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation16.5x50 (vs peers)19%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-1.1%0 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet11/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality11/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation28/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

agilon health, inc. (AGL). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -2.1%; net margin -1.5%; ROE -29.7%.

The estimated value range is 50.87–157.95 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 118.78 USD, the price of 96.23 USD leaves a potential of 23.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 19.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 35.4%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -84.4%
  • Net margin: -1.5%
  • Interest coverage: -22.4x
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • FCF yield: -1.1%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC (SIC 8090) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
16.5x
vertical median 20.4x
below median (−19.0%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 6.8x
P/S
0.3x
vertical median 1.3x
below median (−79.5%)
P/B
5.8x
vertical median 2.6x
above median (+125.4%)
ROE
-29.7%
vertical median 9.0%
below median (−429.2%)
Net margin
-1.5%
vertical median 5.0%
below median (−129.0%)
EBIT margin
-2.6%
vertical median 0.6%
below median (−521.3%)
Revenue YoY
-2.1%
vertical median 0.1%
below median (−2,252.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.8x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 4.9%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DVADavita Inc.12.1 bn14.2—6.5%+6.5%+61% / +90%
FMSFresenius Medical Care AG6.5 bn6.97.0%5.0%+1.5%−3% / +13%
SHCSotera Health Company4.7 bn27.327.0%14.1%+5.7%−6% / +20%
PGNYProgyny, Inc.2.3 bn32.716.2%6.0%+10.4%+14% / −12%
AGLagilon health, inc.1.6 bn16.5-29.7%-1.5%−2.1%+432% / −74%
VMDViemed Healthcare, Inc.383.1 m26.511.0%5.0%+20.5%+46% / +30%
CCELCryo-Cell International, Inc.40.9 m——-6.2%−1.3%+18% / −5%
BRTXBiorestorative Therapies, Inc.38.5 m—-241.1%-3,089.6%−10.3%+40% / −21%
MGRXMangoceuticals, Inc.4.5 m—-95.1%-4,791.3%−26.0%−81% / −98%
NIVFNewgenivf Group Limited166.5 k0.277.2%209.0%−13.0%−100% / −100%
MCTACharming Medical Limited——-0.9%-0.5%−22.7%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for AGL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

    In brief

    agilon health empowers primary care physicians in their communities to manage the total healthcare needs of Medicare Advantage patients through risk-bearing capitation arrangements. The company is working through losses and a shifting membership base, but in the second quarter of 2026 it raised its full-year outlook, making the trajectory of medical margin and Adjusted EBITDA worth watching closely 13.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has long-term partnerships with physician groups, with contracts typically lasting about twenty years 1.
    • The return to profitability in the second quarter of 2026 and the raised outlook show management can improve operating performance 3.

    Weaknesses

    • The company has reported significant net losses in recent years and carries a substantial accumulated deficit 1.
    • Revenue is concentrated in a limited number of payors, and those contracts have relatively short terms 1.
    • Falling membership directly weighs on the revenue base and profitability 23.

    Opportunities

    • If the number of Medicare Advantage patients keeps growing, expansion into new geographies could add members 1.
    • Better burden of illness performance and cost control could improve medical margin in the coming years 3.
    • Participation in CMS ACO models could add income through unconsolidated entities 13.

    Threats

    • Changes in CMS rate and risk-adjustment policy could reduce revenue per member 1.
    • Competition for physicians and payor contracts could limit expansion 1.
    • If the share price stays below the NYSE minimum, the company could face delisting 1.

    Risks

    • Net losses and rising expenseshigh

      The company has reported net losses in recent years and expects expenses to rise, which could keep it from reaching profitability 1.

    • Dependence on payorshigh

      Revenue depends on a limited number of payors, and contracts have limited terms and can be terminated on certain events 1.

    • Exchange listing riskhigh

      The company's shares did not meet the NYSE minimum price requirement, and if a reverse stock split does not cure the deficiency, trading could be affected 1.

    • Medical costs and risk estimatesmedium

      Medical costs may exceed revenue, and estimates of risk adjustment and unreported claims may prove inaccurate 1.

    • Regulation and auditsmedium

      Payor audits, federal investigations and repayment obligations could create additional financial liabilities 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the Total Care model expands and partner physicians improve performance, medical margin could keep recovering, in line with the revised guidance 3.
    • Long-term partnerships and the physician network could make the company hard to replace in the communities where it operates 1.
    • If demand for Medicare Advantage care grows, the company could regain members and return to revenue growth 13.

    What would break the thesis

    • If net losses continue and membership keeps declining, pressure on the balance sheet could increase 12.
    • Dependence on a few payors and short contract terms could leave revenue exposed to policy changes 1.
    • Exchange delisting risk and regulatory issues could weigh on investor confidence and access to capital 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against the revised guidance for revenue and medical marginQ3 2026
    • Trend in MA membership and ACO model membershipQ3 2026
    • Outcome of the reverse stock split vote2026

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).

    The business

    agilon health aims to transform healthcare by empowering primary care physicians (PCPs) in the communities they serve. Its model rests on the agilon platform, long-term partnerships with anchor physician groups, typically 20 years in duration, and a network of like-minded physicians 1. The company forms risk-bearing entities (RBEs) in each local geography, which enter into monthly capitation arrangements with payors to manage the total healthcare needs of attributed patients 1. Payors receive premiums from CMS and pay agilon a defined percentage of them, and agilon shares surplus with its anchor physician groups 1.

    The company was formed in 2016 and established its first anchor physician partnership in 2017 1. As of December 31, 2025, it had 28 anchor physician groups across 30 geographies 1. Substantially all revenue comes from medical services, primarily capitation 1.

    The company operates essentially one business line, medical services for Medicare Advantage patients, and through its participation in CMS ACO models it also reports results from entities it does not consolidate 13. The model depends on growing physician partner capacity and maintaining profitable payor contracts 1.

    Segments

    Capitated medical services for Medicare Advantage

    This is the main segment and generates almost all revenue through monthly per-member payments to the company's RBEs 1. Revenue tracks MA membership and the capitation rate set by payors 1.

    Participation in CMS ACO models

    The company participates through equity method investments in the ACO REACH and MSSP models, which are not consolidated into its financial results 13. Its contribution to Adjusted EBITDA is reported separately 3.

    Market context

    The target market is Medicare Advantage patients in the United States, and value-based payment is more attractive to primary care physicians than fee-for-service payment 1. MA membership and payor budgets depend on CMS policy and annual payor bids 1.

    Growth depends on how quickly physicians and health systems adopt the Total Care model, the company's ability to recruit new physicians, and payors' willingness to sign profitable contracts 13.

    Trends

    • Shift to the Total Care modeltailwind

      Physician adoption of global capitation could open long-term revenue growth if partner physicians manage costs and quality of care well 1.

    • Membership adjustmentheadwind

      Membership fell in 2025 and in the first half of 2026, reflecting market exits and a more selective contracting approach, which could limit near-term growth 23.

    • Medical costs and marginmixed

      The raised medical margin guidance was linked to stronger burden of illness performance and favorable cost trends, and if those trends do not hold, margin could come in below the revised outlook 3.

    • Pricing and regulatory riskheadwind

      Changes in CMS rates and Medicare Advantage rules can alter revenue and margins, and the company relies on payors to pay claims on its behalf 1.

    Competitive position

    The company competes with other organizations that manage Medicare Advantage patient care, with physician networks, and with health systems building their own capitation models 1. Competition for primary care physicians and payor contracts could affect its ability to grow membership 1.

    Its advantage lies in long-term partnerships with physician groups and a like-minded physician network, which can make anchor groups harder to replace 13.

    • Other Medicare Advantage care organizations

      Companies managing MA capitation contracts compete for the same payors and primary care physicians 1.

    • Physician networks and health systems

      Systems building their own Total Care models could compete with the company's physician partner groups 1.

    • Payors running their own care programs

      Payors may try to manage care directly, reducing room for risk-bearing entities 1.

    • Other ACO participants

      ACOs in the same geographies compete for fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / agilon health, inc. · 25 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / agilon health, inc. · 05 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / agilon health, inc. · 05 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.