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olivLaw · US equity research

DaVita Inc. DVA

Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC · SIC 8090 · Vertical: Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC (SIC 8090)

194.82USD+1.12% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

DaVita is one of the largest dialysis service providers in the United States and also operates an international network of dialysis centers and integrated kidney care programs. The company sits at the centre of a market in which patients with end stage kidney disease depend on regular treatment, and official sources show that its U.S. business grew again in 2025, although cost pressures and reliance on government programs remain significant.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, DaVita Inc. (DVA) stock was 194.82 USD (+1.12% on the day), with market capitalisation 12.3 bn USD, P/E 14.3 on diluted EPS of 13.58 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.34, 52-week range 103.87–240.96 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.6 bn USD (+4.6% YoY), net income of 222.9 m USD (+48.3% YoY), diluted EPS 3.40 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
12.3 bn USD
shares as of 27 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.3
Diluted EPS TTM 13.58 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.97%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta (2y)
0.34
Volatility (1y) 45%
52-week range
103.87240.96

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
59.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
174.64 – 194.86
in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 10.9%
SMA 50 / 200
182.34 / 178.69
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.17 / 1.07
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+8.0%−1.1%+9.1 pp—
3 months+7.8%−0.5%+8.3 pp—
6 months−0.7%+4.4%−5.1 pp—
Year to date+71.5%+12.3%+59.2 pp—
1 year+60.8%+13.5%+47.3 pp+15.1%
3 years+146.7%+76.4%+70.3 pp−7.5%
5 years+78.1%+63.7%+14.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−27.9%
29 Jul 2026 → 21 Aug 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−47.0%
20 Apr 2022 → 09 Nov 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+12.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
3.6 bn USD
+4.6% YoY
Net income
222.9 m USD
+48.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.40
+66.7% YoY
net / operating
6.2% / 14.0%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue3.3 bn3.2 bn3.4 bn3.4 bn3.6 bn3.4 bn3.6 bn3.6 bn
Operating income565.4 m438.9 m537.8 m505.8 m561.1 m481.9 m579.0 m499.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation166.6 m176.5 m174.7 m177.5 m179.6 m177.8 m167.8 m165.2 m
Interest expense138.7 m135.1 m146.1 m150.6 m148.3 m145.1 m150.3 m150.0 m
Pre-tax income413.7 m286.3 m368.9 m308.8 m382.8 m341.2 m435.0 m358.7 m
Income tax64.5 m54.1 m93.7 m68.6 m76.7 m66.2 m91.8 m89.3 m
Net income259.3 m162.9 m199.3 m150.3 m234.2 m197.5 m265.4 m222.9 m
Diluted EPS3.09 ≈2.002.582.043.29 ≈2.874.023.40
Operating cash flow547.6 m180.0 m324.2 m ≈841.5 m ≈540.7 m320.8 m490.1 m ≈518.8 m ≈
Capex170.7 m143.3 m121.1 m ≈166.1 m ≈145.4 m102.0 m169.8 m ≈159.5 m ≈
Share repurchases365.4 m510.2 m283.7 m ≈240.1 m ≈274.5 m196.4 m181.5 m ≈73.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 48 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 9.9, median 14.6, max 76.5; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue11.4 bn11.4 bn11.6 bn11.6 bn11.6 bn12.1 bn12.8 bn13.6 bn
Revenue YoY+4.9%−0.1%+1.4%+0.6%−0.1%+4.6%+5.6%+6.5%
Net income159.4 m811.0 m773.6 m978.5 m560.4 m691.5 m936.3 m746.8 m
Net income YoY−76.0%+408.8%−4.6%+26.5%−42.7%+23.4%+35.4%−20.2%
Diluted EPS0.925.276.318.905.857.4210.739.84
Diluted EPS YoY−73.5%+472.8%+19.7%+41.0%−34.3%+26.8%+44.6%−8.3%
net %1.4%7.1%6.7%8.4%4.8%5.7%7.3%5.5%
Free cash flow784.5 m1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn961.1 m1.5 bn1.5 bn1.3 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
676.4 m USD
Financial debt
109.2 m USD
Net debt
-567.2 m USD
Equity
-373.7 m USD
Total assets
17.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.29x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
4.3%
FCF margin
9.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
12.1 bn
2024
12.8 bn
2025
13.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.6 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
736.5 m
2024
716.4 m
2025
708.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
2.3 bn ≈
2024
2.8 bn ≈
2025
2.8 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
398.6 m
2024
470.5 m
2025
539.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
220.1 m
2024
279.7 m
2025
293.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
691.5 m
2024
936.3 m
2025
746.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
7.42
2024
10.73
2025
9.84

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
93.2 m
2024
87.3 m
2025
75.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
380.1 m
2024
794.9 m
2025
676.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
143.1 m
2024
134.6 m
2025
160.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.7 bn
2025
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
3.1 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
7.1 bn
2024
7.4 bn
2025
7.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
203.2 m
2024
197.4 m
2025
222.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
16.9 bn
2024
17.3 bn
2025
17.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
514.5 m
2024
547.2 m
2025
696.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
123.3 m
2024
270.9 m
2025
109.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
2.6 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
14.2 bn
2024
15.2 bn
2025
16.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.2 bn
2024
395.9 m
2025
-373.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
568.0 m
2024
555.4 m
2025
575.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
1.5 bn ≈
2024
1.5 bn ≈
2025
1.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-771.8 m
2024
-771.4 m
2025
-654.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.2 bn
2024
-816.9 m
2025
-1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
0
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
272.2 m
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
5.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-20.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
10.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-0.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-8.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
18.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
9.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-10.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
19.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
15.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
6.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
14.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
-383.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
3.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
1.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
576.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
1.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
140.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
66.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
62 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
12.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
11.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
13.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
7.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
4.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
5.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
9.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Attractive profile

Score: 81 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']

Closing price

194.82 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 12.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
12.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
14.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
4.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
6.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
6.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 27 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 2714derived 156

Score by group

  • Quality90
  • Growth73
  • Balance sheet70
  • Returns91
  • Valuation87

Estimated value range

Low
260.94
USD per share
Mid
376.92
USD per share
High
465.07
USD per share
Price: 194.82 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 93.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 48.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 137.92 – 581.03 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)383.97 – 581.03 (Mid 460.79)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 1.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -28.8%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/E137.92 – 349.11 (Mid 293.05)
    6 companies used · median multiple 21.6x · quartiles 10.2x – 25.7x
    AGL, FMS, NIVF, PGNY, SHC, VMD
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC (SIC 8090)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Attractive profile · Score 81/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality6.5%80 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality140.6%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth5.5%46 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth18.9%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.1x100 (on a fixed band)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.6x32 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.4x51 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation14.3x67 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation4.2x98 (on a fixed band)12%
FCF yield · Valuation10.6%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.9%85 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns0.0%100 (on a fixed band)5%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth73/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality90/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns91/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation87/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

DAVITA INC. (DVA). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 13.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.5%; net margin 6.5%; net debt/EBITDA -0.1x.

The estimated value range is 260.94–465.07 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 376.92 USD, the price of 194.82 USD leaves a potential of 93.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 48.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 81/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 6.5%
  • FCF conversion: 140.6%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 18.9%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.1x
  • EV/EBITDA: 4.2x
  • FCF yield: 10.6%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.9%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 0.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC.

Versus the vertical median

Services-Misc Health & Allied Services, NEC (SIC 8090) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
14.3x
vertical median 21.6x
below median (−33.5%)
EV/EBITDA
4.2x
vertical median 8.4x
below median (−49.8%)
P/S
0.9x
vertical median 1.3x
below median (−32.5%)
P/B
—
vertical median 4.0x
ROE
—
vertical median 7.0%
Net margin
6.5%
vertical median 2.3%
above median (+187.8%)
EBIT margin
15.0%
vertical median -0.6%
above median
Revenue YoY
6.5%
vertical median -1.7%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.1x
vertical median 1.7x
below median (−107.9%)
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DVADavita Inc.12.3 bn14.3—6.5%+6.5%+61% / +147%
FMSFresenius Medical Care AG6.6 bn7.07.0%5.0%+1.5%−1% / +15%
SHCSotera Health Company4.5 bn26.427.0%14.1%+5.7%−9% / +16%
PGNYProgyny, Inc.2.6 bn37.416.2%6.0%+10.4%+30% / +0%
AGLagilon health, inc.1.9 bn19.5-29.7%-1.5%−2.1%+599% / −57%
VMDViemed Healthcare, Inc.341.4 m23.711.0%5.0%+20.5%+30% / +16%
CCELCryo-Cell International, Inc.39.9 m——-6.2%−1.3%+15% / −7%
BRTXBiorestorative Therapies, Inc.38.5 m—-241.1%-3,089.6%−10.3%+40% / −21%
MGRXMangoceuticals, Inc.4.1 m—-95.1%-4,791.3%−26.0%−83% / −98%
NIVFNewgenivf Group Limited117.2 k0.277.2%209.0%−13.0%−100% / −100%
MCTACharming Medical Limited——-0.9%-0.5%−22.7%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for DVA from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
125.35
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
221.50
Total return 14% · Per year 14%
333.50
Total return 71% · Per year 71%
3 years
124.18
Total return -36% · Per year -14%
246.66
Total return 27% · Per year 8%
407.40
Total return 109% · Per year 28%
5 years
123.02
Total return -37% · Per year -9%
274.68
Total return 41% · Per year 7%
497.69
Total return 155% · Per year 21%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 61.67
  • Net margin± 43.17
  • Annual revenue growth± 35.09
  • Annual dilution± 3.63

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

In brief

DaVita is one of the largest dialysis service providers in the United States and also operates an international network of dialysis centers and integrated kidney care programs. The company sits at the centre of a market in which patients with end stage kidney disease depend on regular treatment, and official sources show that its U.S. business grew again in 2025, although cost pressures and reliance on government programs remain significant.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A large network of centers in the U.S. and abroad, with a recognised position in quality programs for several consecutive years.
  • Predictable revenues from government programs and dialysis contracts that support operating cash flow.
  • Experience in managing complex kidney care through integrated and value-based models.

Weaknesses

  • Heavy dependence on government program revenue, which makes the company sensitive to policy changes.
  • Labor and supply costs can rise faster than reimbursement rates.
  • Significant indebtedness requires interest payments and limits financial flexibility.

Opportunities

  • Home dialysis and transplantation could grow if government policies and value-based contracts are expanded.
  • Expansion outside the U.S. and acquisitions of centers could add patients and revenues.
  • New treatment techniques, such as middle molecule clearance, could improve clinical results and differentiate services.

Threats

  • Changes to government reimbursement or Medicare Advantage programs could reduce revenues.
  • Rising competition from new entrants and providers of innovative treatments could reduce market share.
  • A cybersecurity incident or supplier disruption could affect operations and reputation.

Risks

  • Government policy and reimbursementhigh

    Changes to Medicare, Medicaid and Medicare Advantage programs can alter reimbursement rates and revenues.

  • Labor costshigh

    Staff shortages and rising wages could exceed reimbursement increases and compress margins.

  • Cybersecurity incidentmedium

    The 2025 incident and any data breaches could create extra costs, billing delays and legal exposure.

  • Debt and refinancingmedium

    The level of debt and refinancing terms could become more costly if economic conditions deteriorate.

  • Public health factorslow

    Elevated patient mortality linked to flu and other infectious diseases can reduce treatment volumes.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If reimbursement increases continue to outpace cost inflation, operating margins could keep improving.
  • If the expansion of integrated care and home dialysis accelerates, the company could earn more predictable revenues.
  • If share count reduction and operating cash flow remain solid, the capacity to reduce debt could grow.

What would break the thesis

  • If labor cost pressure persists, operating margins could decline even if treatment volumes stay stable.
  • If government policies lower reimbursement rates, revenues in the core segment could be materially affected.
  • If new treatments reduce the number of patients needing dialysis, long-term demand could fall.

What to watch

  • Evolution of Medicare reimbursement rates and OBBBA policy2027
  • Delivery of the 2026 adjusted operating income guidancenext 10-K
  • Evolution of labor costs per treatmentQ1 2027
  • Effects of the cyber incident on collections and costsnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

The business

DaVita is a kidney care provider that treats patients with end stage kidney disease through dialysis and related services. Its main activity is U.S. dialysis, which according to the 2025 annual report accounted for approximately 86% of consolidated revenues and served approximately 200500 patients as of 31 December 2025. The company also operates an international network of 585 dialysis centers in 14 countries and a U.S. integrated kidney care business for higher-risk patients.

The care model aims to slow the progression of kidney disease before stage 5 and to support transplantation where possible, and where it is not, to move the patient to the dialysis modality of their choice. The company highlights its results in government quality programs, where it says it has been an industry leader for many years.

U.S. operations also include a separately licensed clinical laboratory specialised in end stage kidney patient testing, management services for third-party centers and a home dialysis offering, which form part of the strategy to widen treatment options.

Segments

U.S. dialysis

The largest segment, providing hemodialysis in outpatient centers, hospitals and at home. Revenues come mainly from Medicare, Medicaid and commercial insurers, and government programs fund a majority of these services.

Integrated kidney care (IKC)

Manages care for patients with complex kidney disease through risk-based and outcomes-based contracts in which the company takes on part of medical costs. The segment grew in 2026 reporting, and the annualized medical spend under these arrangements is substantial.

International and other services

Includes the network of centers outside the U.S., which grew by 76 centers in 2025 mainly through acquisitions, and other ancillary services. Revenue growth in these activities was strong in 2025, although their share of revenues remains smaller than the U.S. business.

Market context

The U.S. dialysis market is shaped by the number of end stage kidney disease patients, which the company cites at over 557000 in 2023 according to USRDS data. Growth in this population has slowed in recent years, and higher mortality, transplantation and new drugs such as GLP-1 agonists could change long-term demand.

Revenues depend largely on government-set reimbursement rates while labor and supply costs are rising. The market remains concentrated around a few large providers and faces growing competition from other dialysis providers and new entrants.

Trends

  • Labor cost pressureheadwind

    Shortages of skilled clinical staff and wage inflation raise cost per treatment. If these increases outpace reimbursement rates, margins could be affected.

  • Growth of integrated and value-based caretailwind

    Value-based and risk-based contracts, such as those under the CKCC model, may encourage transplants and home dialysis, and the company reports growth in this segment.

  • New treatments and dialysis modalitiesmixed

    Middle molecule clearance techniques and home dialysis are under evaluation. These options could improve clinical outcomes but could also reduce demand for traditional in-center dialysis.

  • Changes in commercial and government coverageheadwind

    Pressure on commercial payment rates and U.S. government coverage policies may shift the patient mix. If the share of patients with commercial insurance declines, average revenue per treatment could be affected.

Competitive position

The company cites increased competition from other dialysis providers and new entrants in the pre-dialysis market. Competition plays out through payor contracts, the recruitment of physicians who serve as medical directors and technological innovation.

In the U.S., competition for commercial insurance contracts and government programs remains important, and a shift of patients toward home dialysis or new care models could change each provider's share.

  • Fresenius Medical Care

    Important dialysis service provider, cited in the company's sources as part of the competitive landscape; no U.S. ticker is confirmed here.

  • New dialysis and pre-dialysis entrants

    New companies in the dialysis and pre-dialysis market, cited in the filings as a source of increased competition, without precise identity in the sources.

  • Non-U.S. kidney care providers

    Local providers in the countries where the company operates centers, cited in the context of international competition.

  • Providers of innovative treatments

    Companies developing drugs or technologies that could reduce demand for dialysis, cited in the filings as a market risk.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / DaVita Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / DaVita Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / DaVita Inc. · 04 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.