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olivLaw · US equity research

Arlo Technologies, Inc. ARLO

Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services · SIC 7381 · Vertical: Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services (SIC 7381)

15.22USD+11.01% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Arlo Technologies sells smart security devices for homes, businesses and personal safety, built on a cloud platform with recurring subscription revenue. Subscription income is growing fast, and the company raised its annual guidance for 2026, which makes the shift from hardware to services the central point of this analysis.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) stock was 15.22 USD (+11.01% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.6 bn USD, P/E 56.3 on diluted EPS of 0.27 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.46, 52-week range 11.23–17.71 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 155.9 m USD (+20.5% YoY), net income of 3.0 m USD (−3.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.03 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.6 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
56.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.27 · TTM to 28 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.78%
TTM to 28 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.46
Volatility (1y) 54%
52-week range
11.2317.71

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
65.6
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
10.98 – 14.93
above the upper band · %B 1.07 · band width 30.5%
SMA 50 / 200
13.03 / 13.39
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.44 / 0.17
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+20.9%−1.1%+22.0 pp—
3 months−4.5%−0.5%−4.0 pp—
6 months+4.5%+4.4%+0.1 pp—
Year to date+8.8%+12.3%−3.5 pp—
1 year−14.3%+13.5%−27.8 pp−31.3%
3 years+65.3%+76.4%−11.2 pp+68.7%
5 years+119.3%+63.7%+55.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−36.6%
05 Nov 2025 → 12 Feb 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−72.2%
03 Mar 2022 → 19 Dec 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+17.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 28 Jun 2026

Revenue
155.9 m USD
+20.5% YoY
Net income
3.0 m USD
−3.1% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.03
0.0% YoY
net / operating
1.9% / 1.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue137.7 m121.6 m119.1 m129.4 m139.5 m141.3 m150.4 m155.9 m
Cost of revenue89.3 m76.7 m66.3 m71.3 m83.0 m75.8 m77.7 m80.7 m
Gross profit48.4 m44.9 m52.7 m58.1 m56.5 m65.5 m72.7 m75.2 m
Research & development17.6 m15.3 m16.2 m18.5 m18.1 m20.9 m22.8 m23.7 m
Operating income-5.5 m-6.0 m-1.5 m1.9 m872.0 k4.7 m7.6 m2.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation710.0 k805.0 k829.0 k858.0 k899.0 k1.3 m1.7 m2.9 m ≈
Pre-tax income-4.1 m-4.7 m-333.0 k2.9 m7.0 m6.1 m15.3 m3.5 m
Income tax329.0 k132.0 k502.0 k-254.0 k154.0 k339.0 k415.0 k432.0 k
Net income-4.4 m-4.9 m-835.0 k3.1 m6.9 m5.8 m14.9 m3.0 m
Diluted EPS-0.04-0.05 ≈-0.010.030.060.05 ≈0.130.03
Operating cash flow18.4 m ≈6.7 m30.9 m8.8 m ≈19.2 m ≈19.8 m27.9 m11.4 m ≈
Capex961.0 k ≈1.1 m2.8 m—————
Share repurchases0 ≈4.4 m15.2 m910.0 k ≈10.7 m ≈18.8 m7.3 m22.9 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 4-quarter history (min 46.3, median 78.6, max 536.6; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue464.9 m370.0 m357.2 m435.1 m490.4 m491.2 m510.9 m529.3 m
Revenue YoY+25.4%−20.4%−3.5%+21.8%+12.7%+0.2%+4.0%+3.6%
Net income-75.5 m-86.0 m-101.3 m-56.0 m-56.6 m-22.0 m-30.5 m14.9 m
Net income YoY−1,252.6%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-1.12-1.14-1.30-0.68-0.65-0.24-0.310.14
Diluted EPS YoY−1,118.2%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-16.2%-23.2%-28.3%-12.9%-11.5%-4.5%-6.0%2.8%
Free cash flow-39.4 m2.5 m-50.4 m-25.5 m-48.0 m35.5 m48.6 munavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
146.4 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
127.8 m USD
Total assets
310.5 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.51x
ROE
13.1%
ROA
4.9%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
491.2 m
2024
510.9 m
2025
529.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
323.6 m
2024
323.4 m
2025
296.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
167.6 m
2024
187.5 m
2025
232.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
68.6 m
2024
73.2 m
2025
73.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-24.9 m
2024
-34.9 m
2025
6.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
4.7 m
2024
3.2 m
2025
3.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-20.2 m ≈
2024
-31.7 m ≈
2025
10.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2023
-20.9 m
2024
-29.4 m
2025
15.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.2 m
2024
1.1 m
2025
741.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-22.0 m
2024
-30.5 m
2025
14.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.24
2024
-0.31
2025
0.14

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
92.8 m
2024
98.6 m
2025
110.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
56.5 m
2024
82.0 m
2025
146.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
65.4 m
2024
57.3 m
2025
39.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
38.4 m
2024
40.6 m
2025
41.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
250.5 m
2024
262.6 m
2025
260.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
4.8 m
2024
4.8 m
2025
13.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
11.0 m
2024
11.0 m
2025
11.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
—
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified

Total assets
2023
285.5 m
2024
298.4 m
2025
310.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
55.2 m
2024
63.8 m
2025
42.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
161.5 m
2024
176.8 m
2025
172.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
182.3 m
2024
197.5 m
2025
182.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
103.3 m †
2024
100.9 m †
2025
127.8 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
38.3 m
2024
51.3 m
2025
78.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
2.8 m
2024
2.7 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2025verified

Free cash flow
2023
35.5 m ≈
2024
48.6 m ≈
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2025derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-50.7 m
2024
10.8 m
2025
27.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-15.1 m
2024
-40.8 m
2025
-42.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
4.4 m
2025
45.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
46.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Net margin
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
22.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
ROA
8.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
8.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
78.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
348.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
39 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
46 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
58 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
26 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
53.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
56.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/B
10.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
P/S
2.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

15.22 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
56.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
P/B
10.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
22.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 28 Jun 2026
Net margin
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 28 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
3.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 28 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 28 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 1385derived 109

Score by group

35% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services (SIC 7381)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality5.2%60 (vs peers)18%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth2.6%21 (on a fixed band)24%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.4x50 (on a fixed band)12%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation56.3x0 (on a fixed band)29%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.6%52 (on a fixed band)18%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial50/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial21/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial60/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial52/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

ARLO TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (ARLO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-28.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 529.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.6%; net margin 5.2%; ROE 22.1%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.6%
  • P/E (TTM): 56.3x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services (SIC 7381) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
56.3x
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
2.8x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+255.1%)
P/B
10.3x
vertical median 1.1x
above median (+801.3%)
ROE
22.1%
vertical median -20.1%
above median
Net margin
5.2%
vertical median -9.6%
above median
EBIT margin
2.7%
vertical median 5.6%
below median (−52.2%)
Revenue YoY
3.6%
vertical median 4.7%
below median (−23.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ALLEAllegion plc16.2 bn24.033.6%15.7%+7.8%+16% / +82%
ADTADT Inc.7.5 bn12.216.9%11.9%+4.7%+20% / +69%
ARLOArlo Technologies, Inc.1.6 bn56.322.1%5.2%+3.6%−14% / +65%
GFAIGuardforce Ai Co., Limited4.6 m—-20.5%-16.1%+0.2%−79% / −95%
SUGPSU Group Holdings Ltd2.5 m—-20.1%-9.6%+5.5%−99% / unavailable
CIGLConcorde International Group Ltd——-3,579.0%-797.3%−1.6%unavailable / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for ARLO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
9.26
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
16.39
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
24.71
Total return 62% · Per year 62%
3 years
8.64
Total return -43% · Per year -17%
17.24
Total return 13% · Per year 4%
28.59
Total return 88% · Per year 23%
5 years
8.07
Total return -47% · Per year -12%
18.14
Total return 19% · Per year 4%
33.09
Total return 117% · Per year 17%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 4.31
  • Net margin± 3.02
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.52
  • Annual dilution± 0.25

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Arlo Technologies sells smart security devices for homes, businesses and personal safety, built on a cloud platform with recurring subscription revenue. Subscription income is growing fast, and the company raised its annual guidance for 2026, which makes the shift from hardware to services the central point of this analysis.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a large base of paid accounts and a developed cloud platform, which provides recurring revenue and a direct relationship with users 1.
  • Subscription gross margins are very high compared with hardware, which supports overall profitability 13.
  • The Arlo brand is recognized and supported by distributor and carrier partnerships in several countries 1.

Weaknesses

  • Hardware sales fell in 2025 and carry negative margins, which depends on shipment volumes to a few large customers 1.
  • The company relies on a limited number of third-party manufacturers located mainly in Asia, which raises operational risk 1.
  • Revenue is heavily concentrated in one European distribution partner that accounted for a major share of total revenue 1.

Opportunities

  • Expanding services for businesses, cities and insurance partners could diversify recurring revenue sources 1.
  • The partnership with a major North American security provider could expand paid subscriber numbers if it converts into sales 1.
  • Continued growth in ARR and paid accounts could allow further improvement in profitability in the coming years 23.

Threats

  • Large technology competitors have much greater resources and could cut prices, which would affect Arlo's margins 1.
  • US tariff policy and possible retaliatory trade measures could raise costs and delay deliveries 12.
  • Lower consumer confidence and inflation could reduce demand for new devices and, over time, subscriptions 2.

Risks

  • Dependence on third-party manufacturershigh

    Products are made by a few outside manufacturers, and disruptions in Asia could halt shipments and affect sales 1.

  • Customer concentrationhigh

    One European partner has represented a large share of revenue, and a change in its orders could affect results 1.

  • Competitive pricing pressuremedium

    If large competitors cut prices, Arlo could be forced to follow, with an effect on margins 1.

  • Tariffs and shipping costsmedium

    Tariffs and higher air freight costs could reduce product margins, and tariff refunds are not assured 13.

  • Reliance on skilled stafflow

    Losing key employees or struggling to hire engineers could delay the launch of new products 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If recurring revenue keeps growing faster than hardware sales, the company could steadily improve profitability and cash generation.
  • The raised annual guidance and record margins in the second quarter suggest the subscription model can work at scale.
  • Partnerships with large security companies and carriers could open new distribution channels without heavy marketing costs.

What would break the thesis

  • If hardware sales keep falling and margins stay negative, profitability could depend too heavily on one subscription segment.
  • Competitors with much larger resources could force price cuts that limit margin expansion.
  • Trade tensions and tariffs could raise costs and delay products, especially if tariff refunds do not materialize.

What to watch

  • Third-quarter results and delivery against the 2026 revenue and EPS guidanceQ3 2026
  • Development of ARR and the number of paid accountsQ3 2026
  • Effect of US tariffs on production costs and gross margin2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Arlo Technologies, Inc. develops a smart security platform that combines cameras, alarm systems, video doorbells and cloud services. The company describes its model as one where revenue comes mainly from paid subscriptions such as Arlo Secure, Arlo Total Security and Arlo Safe, while devices are sold through retail, distributors, carriers and its own online store. In fiscal 2025, subscription and service revenue was 316.4 million USD out of total revenue of 529.3 million USD 1.

A key strategic partner is Verisure, the exclusive distributor of Arlo products in Europe, which accounted for 32% of total revenue in 2025 1. The company also signed a partnership with ADT in June 2025 meant to extend subscriptions through ADT's customer base, although no revenue from that partnership was recognized in 2025 1.

Market context

The company describes the smart home and business security market as highly competitive and evolving, with large technology firms, security service providers and telecom operators among the participants 1. Arlo says it also targets the broader IoT market and uses beyond the home, such as construction site monitoring or remote areas 1. Costs and demand may also be shaped by US tariff policy, which the company monitors closely 2.

On the demand side, the company notes that inflation, weaker consumer confidence and high interest rates could reduce demand for new devices, which could in turn weigh on subscription sales over the longer term 2.

Trends

  • Growth of subscription servicestailwind

    Paid accounts and recurring revenue keep rising from quarter to quarter, which could support margins over the longer term if the trend holds 23.

  • US tariff policymixed

    Tariffs on products made outside the US raise production costs and can reduce margin, although the company has also included an expected tariff refund in its guidance 3.

  • Pressure on consumer demandheadwind

    Inflation and high interest rates could reduce purchases of new devices, especially in retail, which could slow hardware sales 2.

  • Expansion into business and IoT servicestailwind

    The SmartCloud platform and partnerships with insurance, automotive and smart city players could open new recurring revenue sources 1.

Competitive position

The company says it faces competition from large technology companies such as Amazon, with Blink and Ring, and Google, with Nest, as well as security service providers such as ADT and telecom operators such as AT&T, Verizon and Comcast 1. Many competitors have far greater financial and marketing resources, and Arlo acknowledges it may have to lower prices if competition intensifies 1.

Arlo supports its position through technology, direct user relationships and brand recognition, and cites partnerships with component suppliers such as Qualcomm and Infineon as advantages 1. Lower-priced hardware makers, including several based in Asia, keep steady pressure on pricing 1.

  • Amazon (Blink and Ring)AMZN

    Large technology company offering security cameras and doorbells under the Blink and Ring brands, named by Arlo as a main competitor.

  • Google (Nest)GOOGL

    Technology company offering home security products under the Nest brand, identified by Arlo as a competitor.

  • ADTADT

    Major North American security service provider that is also Arlo's partner under the June 2025 agreement.

  • Eufy and Wyze

    Consumer camera and security system makers that the company lists among competitors in the lower-priced segment.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Arlo Technologies, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Arlo Technologies, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Arlo Technologies, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.