olivLaw · US equity research
Athene Holding Ltd. ATHS
Life Insurance · SIC 6311 · Vertical: Life Insurance (SIC 6311)
Athene Holding Ltd. is a financial services company that issues, reinsures and acquires retirement savings products, and is wholly owned by Apollo Global Management, Inc. It earns spread income from the gap between investment returns and the cost of its liabilities, and record organic inflows in 2025 make it relevant to anyone following life insurance. Its total net reserve liabilities stood at 271.2 billion USD at December 31, 2025, which indicates the scale of its balance sheet.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Athene Holding Ltd. (ATHS) stock was 23.28 USD (+0.78% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.7 m USD, P/E 0.0, dividend yield 15,849.66%, beta 0.12, 52-week range 22.99–25.56 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 9.2 bn USD (+70.8% YoY), net income of 989.0 m USD (+113.1% YoY).
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 45.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 22.82 – 23.72
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.52 · band width 3.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 23.98 / 24.62
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.23 / -0.27
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.3% | −2.0% | +0.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −6.3% | −2.2% | −4.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −7.3% | +4.3% | −11.6 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.0% | +10.6% | −17.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −7.5% | +10.5% | −18.0 pp | +5.9% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +73.7% | unavailable | +46.3% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +61.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.4 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.1 bn | 3.7 bn | 9.2 bn |
| Pre-tax income | 1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | 934.0 m | 652.0 m | 2.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 191.0 m | 1.9 bn |
| Income tax | 191.0 m | 71.0 m | 175.0 m | -34.0 m | 266.0 m | 479.0 m | 1.7 bn | 217.0 m |
| Net income | 625.0 m | 1.0 bn | 465.0 m | 464.0 m | 1.3 bn | 523.0 m | -1.9 bn | 989.0 m |
| Operating cash flow | 780.0 m ≈ | 386.0 m | 426.0 m | 1.1 bn ≈ | 636.0 m ≈ | 3.0 bn | 835.0 m | 1.8 bn ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 0 ≈ | 78.0 m | 188.0 m | 187.0 m ≈ | 188.0 m ≈ | 189.0 m | 188.0 m | 187.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.6 bn | 16.3 bn | 14.8 bn | 26.3 bn | 7.6 bn | 28.2 bn | 20.7 bn | 25.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −24.5% | +145.0% | −9.2% | +78.3% | −71.0% | +269.9% | −26.6% | +24.1% |
| Net income | 1.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 3.9 bn | -5.0 bn | 4.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Net income YoY | −22.5% | +106.3% | −29.1% | +150.4% | −230.0% | unavailable | −25.8% | −21.7% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 15.9% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 14.7% | -65.8% | 16.5% | 16.7% | 10.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 16.9 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 7.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- -9.0 bn USD
- Equity
- 35.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 442.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.22x
- Current ratio
- unavailable
- ROE
- 8.8%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax income | 2.2 bn | 4.2 bn | -5.7 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.5 bn | 3.9 bn | -5.0 bn | 4.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7.7 bn | 9.5 bn | 7.8 bn | 13.0 bn | 14.3 bn | 16.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 202.8 bn | 235.1 bn | 243.9 bn | 300.6 bn | 363.3 bn | 442.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2021verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 6.3 bn | 7.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 182.6 bn | 213.0 bn | 233.4 bn | 279.3 bn | 337.5 bn | 406.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 20.1 bn | 22.2 bn | 10.5 bn | 21.2 bn | 25.9 bn | 35.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 1.3 bn | 937.0 m | 452.0 m | 752.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 428.0 m | 8.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2024verified |
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Market and valuation
Insurance
32 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 63 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.7 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet0
- Growth100
- Quality5
- Returns100
- Valuation94
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 16,694.08 – 183,917.58 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- Residual income79,692.47 – 83,380.39 (Mid 81,505.01)
- Justified P/B23,801.01 – 32,008.25 (Mid 27,301.15)
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E16,694.08 – 70,589.00 (Mid 44,710.96)16 companies used · median multiple 10.9x · quartiles 4.1x – 17.3xAAME, ANG-PD, BHF, CIA, CRBD, FG, GL, GNW, JXN, LNC, MET, PFH, PRI, PUK, RGA, VOYA
- Peers: P/B35,651.67 – 183,917.58 (Mid 89,192.03)16 companies used · median multiple 1.0x · quartiles 0.4x – 2.0xAAME, ANG-PD, BHF, CIA, CRBD, FG, GL, GNW, JXN, LNC, MET, PFH, PRI, PUK, RGA, VOYA
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 63/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE · Quality | 4.5% | 5 (vs peers) | 25% |
| Loss ratio · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 49.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| ROA · Balance sheet | 0.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/B · Valuation | 0.0x | 94 (vs peers) | 19% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 0.0x | 94 (vs peers) | 19% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 15,849.7% | 100 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial5/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation94/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ATHENE HOLDING LTD (ATHS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: YoY growth 24.1%; net margin 2.9%; ROE 4.5%.
The estimated value range is 29,726.34–76,984.70 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 63,107.98 USD, the price of 23.28 USD leaves a potential of 270,982.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 100.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 63/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, quality, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 49.9%
- P/B: 0.0x
- P/E (TTM): 0.0x
- Dividend yield: 15,849.7%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- ROE: 4.5%
- ROA: 0.2%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Loss ratio, EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (EPS).
Versus the vertical median
Life Insurance (SIC 6311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 19 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUKPrudential PLC | 67.2 bn | 17.2 | 21.2% | 34.6% | +7.0% | −10% / +20% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | 64.0 bn | 19.1 | 13.2% | 4.6% | +8.6% | +31% / +58% |
| RGAReinsurance Group Of America, Incorporated | 17.3 bn | 11.6 | 11.7% | 5.8% | +7.2% | +39% / +62% |
| GLGlobe Life Inc. | 12.4 bn | 10.7 | 20.9% | 19.6% | +3.7% | +20% / +31% |
| VOYAVoya Financial, Inc. | 9.5 bn | 17.5 | 13.1% | 7.4% | +1.7% | +49% / +46% |
| CRBDCorebridge Financial, Inc. | 9.3 bn | 4.6 | 21.7% | 10.6% | −1.2% | −11% / unavailable |
| JXNJackson Financial Inc. | 9.1 bn | 11.1 | 9.5% | 13.4% | +104.3% | +40% / +188% |
| PRIPrimerica, Inc. | 8.8 bn | 11.4 | 33.0% | 23.2% | +6.6% | +11% / +36% |
| LNCLincoln National Corp | 8.0 bn | 3.6 | 22.6% | 12.2% | −1.2% | +1% / +75% |
| PFHPrudential Financial Inc | 5.3 bn | 1.4 | 12.6% | 6.0% | −13.7% | −11% / −20% |
| GNWGenworth Financial, Inc. | 3.5 bn | 17.5 | 2.4% | 2.9% | +0.1% | +6% / +56% |
| FGF&G Annuities & Life, Inc. | 2.9 bn | 7.4 | 9.2% | 6.9% | −0.2% | −32% / −46% |
| BHFBrighthouse Financial, Inc. | 2.4 bn | 3.3 | 13.6% | 12.5% | +43.2% | −35% / −18% |
| CIACitizens, Inc. | 209.2 m | 18.0 | 5.0% | 4.5% | +4.3% | −31% / +25% |
| AAMEAtlantic American Corporation | 24.3 m | 4.3 | 5.2% | 2.9% | +11.9% | −51% / −39% |
| ATHSAthene Holding Ltd | 4.7 m | 0.0 | 4.5% | 2.9% | +24.1% | −8% / unavailable |
| ANG-PDAmerican National Group Inc. | 215.5 k | 0.0 | 8.4% | 12.6% | −0.4% | −15% / unavailable |
| SLFSun Life Financial Inc | — | — | 14.2% | 8.5% | +8.0% | +39% / +62% |
| AEGAegon Ltd. | — | — | 10.5% | — | +1.1% | +7% / +56% |
| MFCManulife Financial Corporation | — | — | 11.0% | 68.5% | +7.1% | +31% / +135% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ATHS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 15.21 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 26.77 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 40.16 Total return 73% · Per year 73% |
| 3 years | 18.04 Total return -22% · Per year -8% | 35.41 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 57.83 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 21.40 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 46.82 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 83.27 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 8.85
- Net margin± 6.20
- Annual revenue growth± 4.62
- Annual dilution± 0.52
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 8-K (05 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Athene Holding Ltd. is a financial services company that issues, reinsures and acquires retirement savings products, and is wholly owned by Apollo Global Management, Inc. It earns spread income from the gap between investment returns and the cost of its liabilities, and record organic inflows in 2025 make it relevant to anyone following life insurance 12. Its total net reserve liabilities stood at 271.2 billion USD at December 31, 2025, which indicates the scale of its balance sheet 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- Access to Apollo's asset management platform provides diversified investment sources and direct origination capacity 1.
- A broad distribution network through independent marketers, banks and broker-dealers supports high sales volumes 12.
- On-demand capital through the ACRA vehicles allows the company to pursue growth strategies without diluting its balance sheet 1.
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a single controlling shareholder, with most of the board affiliated with Apollo, raises questions about conflicts of interest 1.
- Organic inflows fell in the first half of 2026 while outflows rose as funding agreements approached maturity 2.
- The pension group annuity segment has been affected by competition and litigation, reducing volumes in this channel 12.
Opportunities
- Expansion in Asia and into defined contribution plans could diversify income and inflow sources 1.
- If block reinsurance deals remain attractive, the company could keep growing through inorganic transactions 1.
- New products for stable value funds and health savings accounts could open additional distribution channels 1.
Risks
- Actuarial assumptions and policyholder behaviourhigh
Pricing and reserves rely on assumptions about persistency, mortality and benefit utilisation, and deviations could materially affect results 1.
- Financial strength ratingshigh
A ratings downgrade could reduce sales, increase surrenders and limit access to funding 1.
- Control concentrationmedium
Control by Apollo could create conflicts of interest between the parent and holders of preferred stock 1.
- Liquidity and maturitiesmedium
Higher outflows from funding agreements and annuities could strain liquidity if markets deteriorate 2.
- Fair value measurementmedium
During market dislocations valuing investments can be difficult, and reported values could vary significantly 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The company attracted record organic inflows in 2025 and benefits from a broad distribution network across intermediaries, banks and broker-dealers 1.
- Access to the Apollo platform and on-demand capital through ACRA could support inorganic growth and higher investment returns 1.
- Rising demand for retirement savings and expansion in Asia could open new long-term sources of income 1.
What would break the thesis
- Organic inflows fell in the first half of 2026 while outflows rose, which could compress net interest margins 2.
- Dependence on one controlling shareholder and potential conflicts with Apollo could limit the independence of strategic decisions 1.
- Greater competition in reinsurance and group annuities could pressure prices and limit future volumes 12.
What to watch
- Trend in organic inflows and outflows from funding agreementsQ3 2026
- Financial strength ratings of the insurance subsidiaries2026
- Results of inorganic transactions in Japan and Asianext 10-K
- New product launches for defined contribution plans2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 10 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (03 Nov 2026 · results), 8-K (05 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Athene focuses on generating spread income by combining the sourcing of long-term persistent liabilities with the investment capacity of Apollo, which provides access to origination and global asset management expertise 1. The company is a subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, Inc., which owns 100% of its common stock and controls all voting power for electing the board 1. According to the annual report, Athene aims to maintain risk discipline by managing duration, credit risk and the structural complexity of its assets 1.
The main product lines are annuities and funding agreements, with annuities including fixed rate, indexed, payout and group products issued in part through pension group annuity transactions and defined contribution plans 1. Funding agreements are issued through FABN and FABR programs, directly to institutions, to the Federal Home Loan Bank and through long-term repurchase agreements 1. The company also grows inorganically through acquisitions and block reinsurance, including transactions with Japanese counterparties in 2023 and 2025 1.
In the first six months of 2026, the company reported organic inflows below the same period a year earlier, mainly because funding agreement inflows fell, while retail sales grew 2. Distribution runs through IMOs, banks and broker-dealers, through which Athene plans to deepen its intermediary relationships 2.
Segments
Market context
The US market for indexed annuities and retirement savings products is competitive, and demand depends on interest rate conditions and consumer preferences, which Athene tracks through its distribution channels 1. Beyond the US, the company is pursuing expansion in Asia, where it has set up reinsurance partnerships and block transactions 12.
The market for block reinsurance and insurer acquisitions, particularly in Japan, has become more competitive, which affected flow reinsurance volumes in the first half of 2026 2. The company could keep pursuing inorganic opportunities if they remain attractive on a return basis 1.
Trends
- Interest rates and the search for yieldmixed
A higher interest rate environment has supported sales of fixed rate and indexed products, but it could reduce the appeal of these products for clients expecting rates to fall 12.
- Competition in block reinsuranceheadwind
Competition for reinsurance transactions and flow partners in Asia has intensified, and pricing pressure could affect future volumes 2.
- Litigation risk in pension annuitiesheadwind
Litigation against some pension group annuity clients has limited transactions in this segment and could have effects on the business model 1.
Competitive position
Athene competes with US and non-US insurers and reinsurers, with broker-dealers, financial advisors, asset managers and private equity firms, both for products and for acquisition and reinsurance transactions 1. Competitive factors include financial strength ratings, reputation, service quality and price 1.
Some competitors have higher credit ratings, lower return targets and may price aggressively to gain market share, which could affect the company's ability to reach its sales targets 1.
- Apollo Global ManagementAPO
The sole shareholder of the company and the main provider of investment services, and also a participant in the asset management industry 1.
- Swiss Reinsurance Company
Mortality reinsurer to which Athene retroceded the risk of a Japanese block of business 1.
- Catalina Holdings (Bermuda)
Counterparty in a modco quota share agreement covering retail deferred annuity business 1.
- Sony Life Insurance
Japanese counterparty with which the company reinsured a block of whole life policies 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Athene Holding Ltd. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Athene Holding Ltd. · 10 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.