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olivLaw · US equity research

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. BKD

Services-Nursing & Personal Care Facilities · SIC 8050 · Vertical: Health services (SIC 805x)

10.81USD−3.40% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

Brookdale Senior Living is the largest operator of senior living communities in the United States, spanning independent living, assisted living, memory care and CCRCs. The company is in a phase of occupancy recovery after a period of oversupply, and its plans to sell and acquire assets point to portfolio optimization. For investors and the public it is a relevant indicator of demand for senior care in a fragmented market.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) stock was 10.81 USD (−3.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.6 bn USD, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.73, 52-week range 9.11–16.77 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 718.6 m USD (−11.6% YoY), net income of 23.3 m USD, diluted EPS 0.10 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
2.6 bn USD
shares as of 06 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.58 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-5.35%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.00%
DPS 12m 0.00
Beta (2y)
0.73
Volatility (1y) 40%
52-week range
9.1116.77

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
54.7
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
9.50 – 10.88
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.95 · band width 13.5%
SMA 50 / 200
10.95 / 13.30
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.09 / -0.26
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−0.8%−1.1%+0.3 pp—
3 months−24.7%−0.5%−24.3 pp—
6 months−20.3%+4.4%−24.7 pp—
Year to date+0.2%+12.3%−12.1 pp—
1 year+16.6%+13.5%+3.1 pp+33.7%
3 years+162.4%+76.4%+86.0 pp+164.9%
5 years+42.8%+63.7%−20.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−43.2%
11 Feb 2026 → 27 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−68.6%
14 Apr 2022 → 23 Mar 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+7.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
718.6 m USD
−11.6% YoY
Net income
23.3 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
0.10
unavailable YoY
net / operating
3.2% / 11.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue784.2 m780.9 m813.9 m812.9 m813.2 m754.1 m764.9 m718.6 m
Gross profit198.1 m192.1 m223.1 m215.9 m210.9 m187.7 m216.4 m205.8 m
Operating income10.3 m-2.1 m29.6 m14.9 m-53.8 m22.9 m51.8 m85.2 m
Depreciation & amortisation90.1 m96.4 m94.6 m92.9 m94.8 m80.6 m76.9 m71.1 m
Interest expense66.3 m67.0 m65.0 m63.1 m63.6 m———
Pre-tax income-50.1 m-80.4 m-65.7 m-43.3 m-114.6 m-41.1 m-7.3 m28.8 m
Income tax677.0 k3.6 m-676.0 k-271.0 k167.0 k-1.2 m-429.0 k5.5 m
Net income-50.7 m-83.9 m-65.0 m-43.0 m-114.7 m-40.0 m-6.9 m23.3 m
Diluted EPS-0.22-0.37 ≈-0.28-0.18-0.48-0.17 ≈-0.030.10
Operating cash flow66.5 m ≈45.2 m23.4 m83.6 m ≈76.5 m ≈34.5 m20.9 m91.9 m ≈
Capex55.0 m ≈50.3 m41.8 m54.5 m ≈41.6 m ≈63.7 m46.5 m48.4 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue4.5 bn4.1 bn3.5 bn2.8 bn2.8 bn3.0 bn3.1 bn3.2 bn
Revenue YoY−4.5%−10.5%−12.7%−22.1%+2.4%+6.7%+3.6%+2.2%
Net income-528.3 m-267.9 m82.0 m-99.3 m-238.4 m-189.0 m-201.9 m-262.7 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable−221.1%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-2.82-1.440.44-0.54-1.25-0.84-0.89-1.12
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable−222.7%unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-11.7%-6.6%2.3%-3.6%-8.4%-6.3%-6.5%-8.2%
Free cash flow-21.5 m-87.7 m19.8 m-271.3 m-193.6 m-70.3 m-35.1 m16.5 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
279.1 m USD
Financial debt
4.3 bn USD
Net debt
4.0 bn USD
Equity
-43.4 m USD
Total assets
6.0 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.98x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-4.3%
FCF margin
0.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
746.7 m
2024
799.3 m
2025
837.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
18.4 m
2024
46.5 m
2025
13.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
350.4 m
2024
367.5 m
2025
370.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
368.8 m ≈
2024
414.0 m ≈
2025
383.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
238.3 m
2024
252.6 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-180.3 m
2024
-197.3 m
2025
-264.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
8.8 m
2024
4.6 m
2025
-2.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-189.0 m
2024
-201.9 m
2025
-262.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.84
2024
-0.89
2025
-1.12

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
225.2 m
2024
227.5 m
2025
235.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
278.0 m
2024
308.9 m
2025
279.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
48.4 m
2024
51.9 m
2025
67.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
478.4 m
2024
512.9 m
2025
553.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
27.3 m
2024
27.3 m
2025
27.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2021verified

Total assets
2023
5.6 bn
2024
6.3 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
41.5 m
2024
40.8 m
2025
77.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
3.7 bn
2024
4.0 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
600.1 m
2024
579.8 m
2025
567.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
5.2 bn
2024
6.1 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
405.2 m
2024
213.9 m
2025
-43.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
162.9 m
2024
166.2 m
2025
218.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
233.2 m
2024
201.3 m
2025
201.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-70.3 m ≈
2024
-35.1 m ≈
2025
16.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-113.4 m
2024
-278.1 m
2025
-456.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-174.4 m
2024
142.1 m
2025
201.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Feb 2023verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-2.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-71.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
26.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
14.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-362.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
2.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
223.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
200.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
23.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
52.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
7 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
2.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
6.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
15.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
61.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
108.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

10.81 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 2.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
2.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
15.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
-362.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 06 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 10 Aug 2026
verified 2223derived 151

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
3.04
USD per share
Mid
9.61
USD per share
High
23.62
USD per share
Price: 10.81 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -11.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -12.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.04 – 23.62 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)3.04 – 23.62 (Mid 9.61)
    WACC 6.6% · starting FCFF 241.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 82%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 6.1%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Health services (SIC 805x)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-4.5%20 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.2%35 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet9.1x0 (on a fixed band)19%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet0.4x0 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.1x29 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation15.1x0 (on a fixed band)19%
FCF yield · Valuation0.9%11 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet6/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial35/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial20/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation5/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC. (BKD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.2%; net margin -4.5%; ROE -362.1%; net debt/EBITDA 9.1x.

The estimated value range is 3.04–23.62 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 9.61 USD, the price of 10.81 USD leaves a potential of -11.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -12.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -4.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 9.1x
  • Interest coverage: 0.4x
  • Current ratio: 1.1x
  • EV/EBITDA: 15.1x
  • FCF yield: 0.9%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Health services (SIC 805x) · same industry group (3-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 25.3x
EV/EBITDA
15.1x
vertical median —
P/S
0.8x
vertical median 1.9x
below median (−54.9%)
P/B
—
vertical median 3.2x
ROE
-362.1%
vertical median 17.1%
below median (−2,222.1%)
Net margin
-4.5%
vertical median 5.6%
below median (−181.3%)
EBIT margin
3.5%
vertical median 9.0%
below median (−61.3%)
Revenue YoY
2.2%
vertical median 18.7%
below median (−88.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
9.1x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median 0.8%
below median (−100.0%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ENSGEnsign Group, Inc10.6 bn27.117.1%7.0%+18.7%−2% / +70%
PACSPACS Group, Inc.8.0 bn27.926.6%4.9%+29.3%+50% / unavailable
NHCNational Healthcare Corp3.3 bn23.413.1%9.0%+16.1%+52% / +171%
BKDBrookdale Senior Living Inc.2.6 bn—-362.1%-4.5%+2.2%+17% / +162%
HCSGHealthcare Services Group, Inc.1.7 bn16.920.4%5.6%+7.1%+34% / +159%
SNDASonida Senior Living, Inc.1.6 bn—-26.7%-23.3%+25.2%+5% / +252%

1- and 3-year price returns: for BKD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Brookdale Senior Living is the largest operator of senior living communities in the United States, spanning independent living, assisted living, memory care and CCRCs. The company is in a phase of occupancy recovery after a period of oversupply, and its plans to sell and acquire assets point to portfolio optimization. For investors and the public it is a relevant indicator of demand for senior care in a fragmented market.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Leading position as an operator of senior living communities, with a large and diversified network of service types and price levels 1.
    • Most revenue comes from private payments, which provides a stable income source if demand holds 1.
    • A continuum of services lets seniors stay in the same community as their care needs grow, supporting length of residency 1.

    Weaknesses

    • Net losses in 2025, driven by impairments and financing-related costs, limit the margin of safety 1.
    • High geographic concentration in a few states exposes the company to local economic, climate and regulatory risks 1.
    • Reliance on leases and debt with near-term maturities requires periodic refinancing 12.

    Opportunities

    • Occupancy recovery and rising demand could allow rate increases and better margins if these trends persist 13.
    • Preventive healthcare and care coordination programs could raise revenue and resident length of stay 1.
    • Acquiring leased communities and selling underperforming assets could improve the portfolio structure 12.

    Threats

    • If new construction returns to pre-pandemic levels, competition and pricing pressure could increase 1.
    • A decline in seniors' or their families' financial capacity could affect occupancy and revenue 1.
    • Changes in regulation and reimbursement programs could raise costs or reduce revenue 1.

    Risks

    • Dependence on private payhigh

      Most revenue comes from residents paying directly, so any deterioration in the economy or housing market could affect occupancy and revenue 1.

    • Competing supplymedium

      If new construction returns to pre-pandemic levels, competition could limit the ability to hold rates and attract residents 1.

    • Geographic exposuremedium

      Concentration of communities in a few states makes the company vulnerable to local climate, economic or regulatory events 1.

    • Regulation and reimbursementmedium

      Changes in government programs or state regulation could reduce revenue or increase operating costs 1.

    • Cybersecuritymedium

      A cyberattack or data breach could lead to remediation costs, sanctions and reputational damage 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If occupancy recovery continues and new supply stays limited, higher revenue per community could significantly improve operating margins 13.
    • Its position as the largest operator in the sector and its asset recycling programs could help it optimize the portfolio 1.
    • An aging population and demand for community-based care could support the company's long-term growth 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • Net losses in 2025 and significant impairments show that profitability is not yet stable, and capital expenditure and debt could limit flexibility 1.
    • If the economy weakens, seniors and their families could delay or stop paying fees, directly affecting occupancy 1.
    • Competition from larger REITs and regional operators could limit growth and acquisitions 1.

    What to watch

    • Sequential change in consolidated weighted average occupancyQ4 2026

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    During 2025 the company closed the acquisition of communities previously leased from Diversified Healthcare Trust and Welltower, but it also reported net losses driven by impairments and a loss on extinguishing a financing obligation 1. Later results show occupancy rising, and in October 2026 the company reported third quarter 2026 weighted average consolidated occupancy of 83.1% 3.

    Market context

    Labor, construction and credit costs, along with stricter regulation, can limit new construction and keep cost pressure on existing operators 1. The pace of demand recovery also depends on seniors' ability to pay fees, and so on general economic conditions 1.

    Trends

    • Occupancy recoverytailwind

      Occupancy rose in 2025 and in early 2026, and the sequential gain reported in October 2026 supports the trend 13. If the recovery continues it could support revenue and operating margins.

    • Reduced new supplytailwind

      New construction has fallen compared with the decade before the pandemic, which may limit future competition in many markets 1.

    • High labor and regulatory costsheadwind

      Rising wages, maintenance costs and regulation may absorb part of the benefit from higher revenue, especially if rates cannot be raised enough 1.

    • Asset recycling and acquisitionsmixed

      Sales of underperforming assets and acquisitions of leased communities change the portfolio structure, with mixed effects on revenue, debt and rent expense 12.

    Competitive position

    The industry is highly competitive, with many not-for-profit operators, community-based service programs, convalescent centers and regional providers, and barriers to entry in independent living, assisted living and memory care are not substantial 1. Major competitors named by the company are Discovery Senior Living, Erickson Senior Living and LCS, alongside regional operators with strong local presence 1.

    In acquiring and operating communities, Brookdale also competes with REITs and private equity firms, some with greater financial resources and lower cost of capital 1. The company says the largest healthcare REITs, Welltower and Ventas, compete directly for senior housing property acquisitions 1.

    • Discovery Senior Living

      Senior living community operator named by the company as one of its major competitors in senior housing 1.

    • Erickson Senior Living

      Senior living operator named by the company among its major senior housing competitors 1.

    • LCS

      Senior living operator named by the company as a major competitor 1.

    • Welltower

      Largest healthcare REIT named by the company, competing directly for senior housing acquisitions and a counterparty in past property acquisitions 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    • Current report08 Oct 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
    • Current report10 Aug 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report09 Jul 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Current report24 Jun 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure
    • Quarterly report07 May 2026
    • Current report06 May 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
    • Proxy statement30 Apr 2026
    • Current report20 Apr 2026
      Departure or appointment of officers
    • Current report08 Apr 2026
      Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Brookdale Senior Living Inc. · 19 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Brookdale Senior Living Inc. · 10 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Brookdale Senior Living Inc. · 08 Oct 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.

    Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD): stock, results, valuation and forecast · olivLaw