olivLaw · US equity research
CF CF
Agricultural Chemicals · SIC 2870 · Vertical: Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870)
CF Industries is the world's largest ammonia producer, with a value chain spanning manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. In fiscal 2025 it sold 19.1 million product tons for net sales of $7.08 billion. The company is decarbonizing its production network, and its first-half 2026 results show high capacity utilization.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, CF (CF) stock was 111.68 USD (−4.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 16.9 bn USD, P/E 7.9 on diluted EPS of 14.07 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.79%, beta -0.11, 52-week range 76.09–139.27 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 2.2 bn USD (+17.6% YoY), net income of 869.0 m USD (+76.6% YoY), diluted EPS 4.73 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.4
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 111.85 – 124.20
- below the lower band · %B -0.01 · band width 10.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 122.70 / 116.79
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.82 / -0.63
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −3.7% | −1.1% | −2.6 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.3% | −0.5% | −3.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.7% | +4.4% | −11.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +44.4% | +12.3% | +32.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +32.1% | +13.5% | +18.5 pp | −14.9% |
| 3 years | +36.9% | +76.4% | −39.5 pp | −63.6% |
| 5 years | +88.6% | +63.7% | +25.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 926.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Gross profit | 444.0 m | 524.0 m | 572.0 m | 755.0 m | 632.0 m | 765.0 m | 746.0 m | 1.1 bn |
| SG&A | 78.0 m | 78.0 m | 84.0 m | 101.0 m | 88.0 m | 91.0 m | 103.0 m | 89.0 m |
| Operating income | 364.0 m | 441.0 m | 455.0 m | 648.0 m | 580.0 m | 617.0 m | 863.0 m | 1.1 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 229.0 m ≈ | 221.0 m | 221.0 m | 232.0 m ≈ | 217.0 m ≈ | 228.0 m | 228.0 m | 215.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 0 | 47.0 m | 37.0 m | 36.0 m | 41.0 m | 41.0 m | 39.0 m | 50.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 400.0 m | 433.0 m | 437.0 m | 635.0 m | 565.0 m | 602.0 m | 844.0 m | 1.1 bn |
| Income tax | 59.0 m | 41.0 m | 86.0 m | 143.0 m | 105.0 m | 107.0 m | 168.0 m | 224.0 m |
| Net income | 341.0 m | 392.0 m | 351.0 m | 492.0 m | 460.0 m | 495.0 m | 676.0 m | 869.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 1.55 | 2.26 ≈ | 1.85 | 2.37 | 2.19 | 3.17 ≈ | 3.98 | 4.73 |
| Operating cash flow | 931.0 m ≈ | 420.0 m | 586.0 m | 563.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 539.0 m | 496.0 m | 878.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 139.0 m ≈ | 197.0 m | 132.0 m | 245.0 m ≈ | 347.0 m ≈ | 226.0 m | 223.0 m | 271.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 90.0 m ≈ | 86.0 m | 86.0 m | 81.0 m ≈ | 81.0 m ≈ | 78.0 m | 78.0 m | 77.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 490.0 m ≈ | 375.0 m | 444.0 m | 216.0 m ≈ | 360.0 m ≈ | 345.0 m | 28.0 m | 225.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 19 percentile of its own 36-quarter history (min 4.6, median 12.9, max 36.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.1 bn | 6.5 bn | 11.2 bn | 6.6 bn | 5.9 bn | 7.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +7.2% | +3.6% | −10.2% | +58.5% | +71.1% | −40.7% | −10.5% | +19.3% |
| Net income | 428.0 m | 646.0 m | 432.0 m | 1.3 bn | 3.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | −4.9% | +50.9% | −33.1% | +191.7% | +212.5% | −53.3% | −19.6% | +21.7% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.24 | 2.23 | 1.47 | 4.24 | 16.38 | 7.87 | 6.74 | 8.97 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −19.0% | +79.8% | −34.1% | +188.4% | +286.3% | −52.0% | −14.4% | +33.1% |
| net % | 9.7% | 14.1% | 10.5% | 19.3% | 35.2% | 27.7% | 24.9% | 25.4% |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 922.0 m | 2.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 3.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 7.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 14.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.41x
- Current ratio
- 3.37x
- ROE
- 23.4%
- ROA
- 13.1%
- FCF margin
- 25.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.1 bn | 6.5 bn | 11.2 bn | 6.6 bn | 5.9 bn | 7.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 3.3 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 801.0 m | 2.4 bn | 5.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 206.0 m | 223.0 m | 290.0 m | 289.0 m | 320.0 m | 364.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 623.0 m | 1.7 bn | 5.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 892.0 m | 888.0 m | 850.0 m | 869.0 m | 925.0 m | 898.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.5 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | 6.2 bn ≈ | 3.1 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 179.0 m | 184.0 m | 344.0 m | 150.0 m | 121.0 m | 155.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 463.0 m | 1.5 bn | 5.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 31.0 m | 283.0 m | 1.2 bn | 410.0 m | 285.0 m | 441.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 432.0 m | 1.3 bn | 3.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.47 | 4.24 | 16.38 | 7.87 | 6.74 | 8.97 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 215.2 m | 216.2 m | 204.2 m | 193.8 m | 180.7 m | 162.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 2.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 683.0 m | 1.6 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | — | — | 505.0 m | 404.0 m | 488.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Inventories | 287.0 m | 408.0 m | 474.0 m | 299.0 m | 314.0 m | 383.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.4 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 7.6 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 104.0 m | 45.0 m | 15.0 m | 538.0 m | 507.0 m | 473.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 12.0 bn | 12.4 bn | 13.3 bn | 14.4 bn | 13.5 bn | 14.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 85.0 m | 110.0 m | 63.0 m | 114.0 m | 125.0 m | 148.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 249.0 m | 0 | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2022verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 906.0 m | 1.4 bn | 995.0 m | 800.0 m | 818.0 m | 887.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 5.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.9 bn | 8.4 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.2 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 309.0 m | 514.0 m | 453.0 m | 499.0 m | 518.0 m | 950.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 922.0 m ≈ | 2.4 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -299.0 m | -466.0 m | -440.0 m | -1.7 bn | -469.0 m | -933.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -542.0 m | -1.5 bn | -2.7 bn | -1.4 bn | -2.2 bn | -1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 258.0 m | 260.0 m | 306.0 m | 311.0 m | 364.0 m | 326.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 100.0 m | 539.0 m | 1.3 bn | 580.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 79 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 16.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation92
- Returns100
- Quality91
- Balance sheet100
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 118.71 – 252.77 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)151.09 – 243.39 (Mid 185.95)WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 2.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -23.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA155.23 – 241.78 (Mid 192.67)4 companies used · median multiple 7.3x · quartiles 6.0x – 9.2xICL, MOS, NTR, UAN
- Peers: P/E118.71 – 252.77 (Mid 187.20)4 companies used · median multiple 13.3x · quartiles 8.4x – 18.0xEVGN, ICL, NTR, UAN
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate26.28 – 35.34 (Mid 30.15)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 79/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 27.3% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 32.3% | 100 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 76.4% | 66 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -14.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -18.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 18.6x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 4.9x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.9x | 80 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 4.3x | 97 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 16.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation92/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (CF). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 19.3%; net margin 32.3%; ROE 46.7%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.
The estimated value range is 151.09–243.39 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 187.20 USD, the price of 111.68 USD leaves a potential of 67.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 40.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 79/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 27.3%
- Net margin: 32.3%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x
- Interest coverage: 18.6x
- Current ratio: 4.9x
- P/E (TTM): 7.9x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.3x
- FCF yield: 11.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 16.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -14.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -18.2%
Versus the vertical median
Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRNutrien Ltd. | 41.0 bn | 15.5 | 9.1% | 8.4% | +3.5% | +24% / +35% |
| CFCf Industries Holdings, Inc. | 16.9 bn | 7.9 | 46.7% | 32.3% | +19.3% | +32% / +37% |
| MOSMosaic Co | 6.9 bn | — | -9.3% | -9.4% | +8.4% | −12% / −40% |
| ICLIcl Group Ltd. | 5.9 bn | 25.4 | 3.9% | 3.2% | +4.6% | −18% / −9% |
| SMGScotts Miracle-Gro Co | 3.9 bn | 55.8 | — | 2.1% | −3.9% | +19% / +21% |
| UANCvr Partners, LP | 1.2 bn | 11.1 | — | 16.1% | +15.4% | +16% / +64% |
| AVDAmerican Vanguard Corporation | 28.8 m | — | -26.5% | -10.7% | −5.9% | −79% / −90% |
| BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp. | 16.2 m | — | -19.1% | -16.5% | −27.9% | −85% / −98% |
| SNESSenestech, Inc. | 6.6 m | — | -107.4% | -294.7% | +19.6% | −58% / −87% |
| CBUSCibus, Inc. | 6.2 m | — | -225.9% | -2,258.9% | −14.6% | −9% / −90% |
| EVGNEvogene Ltd. | 3.1 m | 0.3 | — | -220.2% | −30.9% | −66% / −95% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 70.09 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 124.53 Total return 14% · Per year 14% | 188.44 Total return 71% · Per year 71% |
| 3 years | 55.65 Total return -46% · Per year -19% | 112.39 Total return 6% · Per year 2% | 188.44 Total return 76% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 44.19 Total return -54% · Per year -15% | 101.43 Total return -0% · Per year -0% | 188.44 Total return 81% · Per year 13% |
- Exit P/E± 28.10
- Net margin± 19.67
- Annual revenue growth± 17.76
- Annual dilution± 1.65
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
CF Industries is the world's largest ammonia producer, with a value chain spanning manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. In fiscal 2025 it sold 19.1 million product tons for net sales of $7.08 billion 1. The company is decarbonizing its production network, and its first-half 2026 results show high capacity utilization 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading ammonia position, with the world's largest complex at Donaldsonville and an extensive North American logistics network 1.
- Strong cash generation over the last twelve months, with a high conversion of adjusted EBITDA into free cash flow 3.
- Solid partnerships with JERA, Mitsui and ExxonMobil that can share decarbonization investment risk 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- If demand for low-carbon ammonia grows in Europe and Japan, the company could capture premium pricing 1.
- Extending CCS to other complexes could reduce emissions and add tax credit benefits 1.
- New applications such as power generation and marine shipping could open fresh markets for ammonia-based products 1.
Risks
- Price cyclicalityhigh
Product prices depend on the global balance of supply and demand, and oversupply periods can reduce margins and force temporary production curtailments 1.
- Intense global competitionhigh
State-owned or subsidized competitors could accept lower prices, and imports into a region can pressure local prices 1.
- Natural gas volatilitymedium
The main production input is natural gas, and price increases could compress margins 1.
- Blue Point executionmedium
Completing the low-carbon ammonia facility on time and on budget is not assured, and costs could exceed current estimates 3.
- Trade and climate policymedium
Tariffs, antidumping measures and emissions rules could change demand and prices in ways that are hard to predict 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the global nitrogen balance stays tight, high capacity utilization could support margins and cash generation 3.
- Demand for low-carbon ammonia, backed by Japanese and European partners, could bring premium-priced revenue 1.
- The share repurchase and dividend program shows a willingness to return capital to shareholders if cash flow holds 3.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trend in capacity utilization and nitrogen pricesQ3 2026
- Construction progress and spending at the Blue Point unit2027
- Restart of Yazoo City operations and start of CCS there2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
The strategy combines advantaged production, a broad distribution network and disciplined capital stewardship, with a focus on decarbonization. Through carbon capture and sequestration, roughly 60% of the CO2 emissions from ammonia production can be kept from the atmosphere 1. The Donaldsonville complex can now produce up to about 1.9 million tons of low-carbon ammonia annually 1.
In April 2025 the company formed the Blue Point joint venture, in which it holds 40%, with JERA and Mitsui, to build a low-carbon ammonia plant estimated at $3.7 billion 1. Production is expected to begin in 2029, and the partners are required to purchase their ownership share of the output 1.
Segments
Ammonia and nitrogen derivatives
Ammonia is the core product, and urea, UAN and AN are derivatives used mainly as fertilizers. Products sold to industrial customers include DEF, urea liquor and nitric acid 1. Most volumes go to agriculture, while industrial demand adds stability to sales 1.
Low-carbon ammonia
This line covers products from CCS at Donaldsonville and Yazoo City, as well as the planned Blue Point unit. The company made its first low-carbon sales at a premium to traditional ammonia in Europe and Africa 1. Blue Point could become a material growth driver if demand for hydrogen and energy develops 1.
Market context
The nitrogen market is cyclical and commodity-like, with prices set by global supply and demand. When new capacity arrives, prices can fall, as seen between 2015 and 2017 1. In the first half of 2026 the company described a tight global nitrogen balance, with available capacity utilization at 98% 3.
Demand depends on crop planting, biofuel policy and natural gas prices. US ethanol production absorbs a significant share of corn, supporting fertilizer demand 1. Competition from China, Russia and Trinidad remains intense and can weigh on prices 1.
Trends
- Tightening global nitrogen balancetailwind
Reporting for 2026 points to a tight global market, with available capacity utilization at 98% 3. If this tightness persists, prices and margins could remain supported.
- Shift toward low-carbon ammoniatailwind
European and Japanese buyers are seeking low-carbon volumes, and the Blue Point venture has attracted commitments from Japanese partners 1. New demand could open premium pricing.
- New industry capacityheadwind
Growth in global capacity, including low-carbon ammonia projects, can pressure prices during oversupply periods 1.
- Agricultural and climate policymixed
Ethanol mandates and emissions rules affecting agriculture can shift fertilizer volumes in either direction 1.
Competitive position
The company competes with many producers, including state-owned and subsidized entities, some with greater resources or cheaper gas access 1. Competition is driven mainly by delivered price, with low-carbon attributes becoming more relevant 1.
In Europe and the Western Hemisphere it competes with producers from the Middle East, Canada and Trinidad, and Russian imports have weighed on US UAN producers' profitability 1. Trinidad producers, including PLNL in which the company holds 50%, are an important factor 1.
- Yara International
European nitrogen fertilizer producer, relevant to competition in Europe.
- State-owned producers in Russia and China
Subsidized or cheaper-gas entities that could accept lower margins.
- Middle East producers
Suppliers with favorable natural gas costs that export into North America.
- Trinidad and Tobago producers
Including PLNL, a joint venture in which CF holds 50%, and other regional producers.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report06 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / CF · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / CF · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / CF · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.