olivLaw · US equity research
Nutrien Ltd. NTR
Agricultural Chemicals · SIC 2870 · Vertical: Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870)
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Nutrien Ltd. (NTR) stock was 72.07 USD (+3.97% on the day), with market capitalisation 41.0 bn USD, P/E 15.5 on diluted EPS of 4.66 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.00%, beta 0.18, 52-week range 54.00–83.94 USD.
Data as of · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 67.28 – 71.45
- above the upper band · %B 1.15 · band width 6.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 72.90 / 71.14
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.47 / -0.88
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.6% | −1.1% | +3.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +7.7% | −0.5% | +8.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.4% | +4.4% | −6.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +16.8% | +12.3% | +4.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | +34.4% | +13.5% | +20.8 pp | −14.9% |
| 3 years | +28.2% | +76.4% | −48.2 pp | −63.6% |
| 5 years | +7.6% | +63.7% | −56.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 50 percentile of its own 8-quarter history (min 5.2, median 17.9, max 59.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.6 bn | 20.1 bn | 20.9 bn | 27.7 bn | 37.9 bn | 29.1 bn | 26.0 bn | 26.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +331.8% | +2.3% | +4.1% | +32.5% | +36.7% | −23.3% | −10.6% | +3.5% |
| Net income | 3.6 bn | 992.0 m | 459.0 m | 3.2 bn | 7.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 674.0 m | 2.3 bn |
| Net income YoY | +992.7% | −72.2% | −53.7% | +586.9% | +142.9% | −83.6% | −46.4% | +236.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.72 | 1.70 | 0.81 | 5.52 | 14.18 | 2.53 | 1.36 | 4.66 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +1,366.7% | −70.3% | −52.4% | +581.5% | +156.9% | −82.2% | −46.2% | +242.6% |
| net % | 18.2% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 11.4% | 20.2% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 8.4% |
| Free cash flow | 647.0 m | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 5.9 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.1 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 701.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 10.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 9.5 bn USD
- Equity
- 25.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 52.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.40x
- Current ratio
- 1.34x
- ROE
- 9.1%
- ROA
- 4.4%
- FCF margin
- 7.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.9 bn | 27.7 bn | 37.9 bn | 29.1 bn | 26.0 bn | 26.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 14.8 bn | 17.5 bn | 21.6 bn | 19.6 bn | 17.5 bn | 17.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 5.2 bn | 9.4 bn | 15.4 bn | 8.5 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 902.0 m | 4.8 bn | 10.8 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.9 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.9 bn ≈ | 6.7 bn ≈ | 12.8 bn ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | 6.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 520.0 m | 613.0 m | 563.0 m | 793.0 m | 720.0 m | 687.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 382.0 m | 4.2 bn | 10.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -77.0 m | 989.0 m | 2.6 bn | 670.0 m | 436.0 m | 752.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 459.0 m | 3.2 bn | 7.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 674.0 m | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.81 | 5.52 | 14.18 | 2.53 | 1.36 | 4.66 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 569.7 m | 571.3 m | 540.0 m | 497.0 m | 494.4 m | 486.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.81 | — | 1.92 | 2.12 | 2.16 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.5 bn | 499.0 m | 901.0 m | 941.0 m | 853.0 m | 701.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 3.6 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 4.9 bn | 6.3 bn | 7.6 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.1 bn | 7.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 11.5 bn | 13.8 bn | 16.3 bn | 14.2 bn | 13.8 bn | 14.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 19.7 bn | 20.0 bn | 21.8 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2023verified |
| Goodwill | 12.2 bn | 12.2 bn | 12.4 bn | 12.1 bn | 12.0 bn | 12.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 47.2 bn | 50.0 bn | 54.6 bn | 52.7 bn | 51.8 bn | 52.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 8.1 bn | 10.1 bn | 11.3 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 159.0 m | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 873.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 10.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.0 bn | 8.9 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 8.5 bn | 12.4 bn | 14.3 bn | 12.1 bn | 12.0 bn | 11.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 24.8 bn | 26.3 bn | 28.7 bn | 27.5 bn | 27.4 bn | 26.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 22.4 bn | 23.7 bn | 25.9 bn | 25.2 bn | 24.4 bn | 25.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 569.3 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2021verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.3 bn | 3.9 bn | 8.1 bn | 5.1 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 5.9 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.2 bn | -1.8 bn | -2.9 bn | -3.0 bn | -2.1 bn | -1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.3 bn | -3.0 bn | -4.7 bn | -2.1 bn | -1.5 bn | -2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 160.0 m | 1.0 bn | 4.5 bn | 1.0 bn | 184.0 m | 551.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 56 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 41.0 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet62
- Valuation55
- Quality83
- Growth0
- Returns74
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 28.12 – 73.09 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)38.51 – 73.09 (Mid 51.39)WACC 8.3% · starting FCFF 2.6 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 6.3%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA31.70 – 66.64 (Mid 42.20)4 companies used · median multiple 5.5x · quartiles 4.5x – 7.8xCF, ICL, MOS, UAN
- Peers: P/E28.12 – 68.57 (Mid 44.44)4 companies used · median multiple 9.5x · quartiles 6.0x – 14.7xCF, EVGN, ICL, UAN
- Dividend discount (DDM)28.38 – 38.17 (Mid 32.56)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 56/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.2% | 80 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 8.4% | 80 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 93.7% | 91 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -10.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -31.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.6x | 70 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.4x | 61 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 45 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 15.5x | 40 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.3x | 61 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.2% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.9% | 56 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 49.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns74/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation55/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
NUTRIEN LTD. (NTR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 26.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.5%; net margin 8.4%; ROE 9.1%; net debt/EBITDA 1.6x.
The estimated value range is 30.04–67.60 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 43.32 USD, the price of 72.07 USD leaves a potential of -39.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -66.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 8.2%
- Net margin: 8.4%
- FCF conversion: 93.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 49.9%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -10.8%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -31.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Versus the vertical median
Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRNutrien Ltd. | 41.0 bn | 15.5 | 9.1% | 8.4% | +3.5% | +34% / +28% |
| CFCf Industries Holdings, Inc. | 16.9 bn | 7.9 | 46.7% | 32.3% | +19.3% | +42% / +49% |
| MOSMosaic Co | 6.9 bn | — | -9.3% | -9.4% | +8.4% | −12% / −40% |
| ICLIcl Group Ltd. | 5.9 bn | 25.4 | 3.9% | 3.2% | +4.6% | −18% / −9% |
| SMGScotts Miracle-Gro Co | 3.9 bn | 55.8 | — | 2.1% | −3.9% | +19% / +21% |
| UANCvr Partners, LP | 1.2 bn | 11.1 | — | 16.1% | +15.4% | +16% / +64% |
| AVDAmerican Vanguard Corporation | 28.8 m | — | -26.5% | -10.7% | −5.9% | −79% / −90% |
| BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp. | 16.2 m | — | -19.1% | -16.5% | −27.9% | −85% / −98% |
| SNESSenestech, Inc. | 6.6 m | — | -107.4% | -294.7% | +19.6% | −58% / −87% |
| CBUSCibus, Inc. | 6.2 m | — | -225.9% | -2,258.9% | −14.6% | −9% / −90% |
| EVGNEvogene Ltd. | 3.1 m | 0.3 | — | -220.2% | −30.9% | −66% / −95% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NTR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 32.93 Total return -52% · Per year -52% | 58.51 Total return -16% · Per year -16% | 88.54 Total return 26% · Per year 26% |
| 3 years | 26.15 Total return -59% · Per year -26% | 52.81 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 88.54 Total return 32% · Per year 10% |
| 5 years | 20.76 Total return -64% · Per year -18% | 47.66 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 88.54 Total return 38% · Per year 7% |
- Exit P/E± 13.20
- Net margin± 9.24
- Annual revenue growth± 8.35
- Annual dilution± 0.78
AI analysis
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
Products, market & competition
The qualitative analysis has not been written for this company yet.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Fertilizer Deal With Belarus Is In the Works, Says Trump. CF Industries and Nutrien Stocks Fall.Yahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- Nutrien (NTR) Dropped 15.4% in Q2: Why the Fertilizer Stock Could Be a BargainYahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 21 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Nov 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)05 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 May 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.