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olivLaw · US equity research

SenesTech, Inc. SNES

Agricultural Chemicals · SIC 2870 · Vertical: Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870)

1.21USD−2.42% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

SenesTech develops and sells fertility-control products that manage rat and mouse populations without lethal poisons, mainly the Evolve and ContraPest lines. The company is moving from research to sales, with revenue of 2.2 million USD in fiscal 2025 and a preliminary third quarter 2026 figure above 1 million USD for the first time.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, SenesTech, Inc. (SNES) stock was 1.21 USD (−2.42% on the day), with market capitalisation 6.6 m USD, beta 1.79, 52-week range 0.63–3.48 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 770.0 k USD (+23.2% YoY), net income of -1.8 m USD, diluted EPS -0.35 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
6.6 m USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.37 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-112.84%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.79
Volatility (1y) 88%
52-week range
0.633.48

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
73.3
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.46 – 1.21
in the upper half of the band · %B 1.00 · band width 90.8%
SMA 50 / 200
0.85 / 1.48
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.09 / 0.03
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+44.9%−1.1%+46.0 pp—
3 months−25.8%−0.5%−25.3 pp—
6 months−17.7%+4.4%−22.1 pp—
Year to date−43.5%+12.3%−55.8 pp—
1 year−60.8%+13.5%−74.4 pp−10.3%
3 years−97.0%+76.4%−173.4 pp−24.4%
5 years−100.0%+63.7%−163.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−81.9%
10 Nov 2025 → 13 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−100.0%
09 Nov 2021 → 13 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−80.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
770.0 k USD
+23.2% YoY
Net income
-1.8 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.35
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-237.9% / -241.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue482.0 k501.0 k485.0 k625.0 k690.0 k421.0 k493.0 k770.0 k
Cost of revenue167.0 k196.0 k172.0 k216.0 k257.0 k188.0 k155.0 k203.0 k
Gross profit315.0 k305.0 k313.0 k409.0 k433.0 k233.0 k338.0 k567.0 k
Research & development451.0 k424.0 k418.0 k427.0 k400.0 k453.0 k422.0 k377.0 k
Operating income-1.5 m-1.3 m-1.7 m-1.6 m-1.3 m-1.9 m-2.1 m-1.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation42.0 k ≈41.0 k39.0 k35.0 k ≈29.0 k ≈32.0 k31.0 k31.0 k ≈
Interest expense6.0 k7.0 k5.0 k6.0 k6.0 k5.0 k4.0 k5.0 k
Net income-1.5 m-1.3 m-1.7 m-1.6 m-1.3 m-1.8 m-2.1 m-1.8 m
Diluted EPS-2.07-1.22 ≈-1.28-0.87-0.28-0.35 ≈-0.39-0.35
Operating cash flow-1.4 m ≈-1.2 m-1.6 m-1.2 m ≈-1.4 m ≈-1.7 m-1.9 m-1.7 m ≈
Capex28.0 k ≈15.0 k36.0 k47.0 k ≈42.0 k ≈13.0 k00 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019⚠ 202020212022202320242025
Revenue297.0 k143.0 k282.0 k600.0 k1.0 m1.2 m1.9 m2.2 m
Revenue YoY+471.2%−51.9%—+112.8%+69.8%+17.1%+55.7%+19.6%
Net income-11.9 m-10.0 m-8.4 m-8.3 m-9.7 m-7.7 m-6.2 m-6.4 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailable-14.77-148.08-115.10-8.86-1.95
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable—unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-4,009.4%-7,005.6%-2,969.1%-1,378.0%-951.4%-646.3%-333.0%-287.4%
Free cash flow-9.4 m-8.1 m-7.2 m-7.9 m-8.8 m-7.7 m-6.1 m-5.9 m

The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
7.6 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
9.6 m USD
Total assets
12.8 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
12.61x
ROE
-105.7%
ROA
-79.2%
FCF margin
-265.1%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
1.2 m
2024
1.9 m
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
654.0 k
2024
853.0 k
2025
833.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
539.0 k
2024
1.0 m
2025
1.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
1.2 m
2024
1.7 m
2025
1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-7.7 m
2024
-6.2 m
2025
-6.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
135.0 k
2024
156.0 k
2025
135.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-7.6 m ≈
2024
-6.1 m ≈
2025
-6.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
4.0 k
2024
22.0 k
2025
22.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
—
2024
0
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-7.7 m
2024
-6.2 m
2025
-6.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-115.10
2024
-8.86
2025
-1.95

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
67.0 k
2024
698.0 k
2025
3.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
5.4 m
2024
1.3 m
2025
7.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
95.0 k
2024
335.0 k
2025
201.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
795.0 k
2024
794.0 k
2025
994.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
6.7 m
2024
2.8 m
2025
10.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
388.0 k
2024
407.0 k
2025
410.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
7.3 m
2024
3.3 m
2025
12.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
150.0 k
2024
215.0 k
2025
183.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Mar 2023verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Mar 2021verified

Current liabilities
2023
786.0 k
2024
561.0 k
2025
798.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
942.0 k
2024
767.0 k
2025
3.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
6.4 m †
2024
2.5 m †
2025
9.6 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-7.6 m
2024
-6.0 m
2025
-5.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
149.0 k
2024
84.0 k
2025
138.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-7.7 m ≈
2024
-6.1 m ≈
2025
-5.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-149.0 k
2024
-56.0 k
2025
-1.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
8.3 m
2024
2.0 m
2025
13.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
19.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
29.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
51.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
66.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-298.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-303.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-294.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-283.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-107.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-70.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-85.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
-360.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
6.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
5.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
5.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-6.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
55.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-6.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
64 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
382 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
99 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
346 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
6.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-112.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
2.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-102.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
-22.12
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 5 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

1.21 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 6.6 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
6.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
-107.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-294.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
19.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 1327derived 119

Score by group

33% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-294.7%10 (vs peers)19%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth29.7%100 (on a fixed band)25%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-360.5x0 (on a fixed band)19%
Current ratio · Balance sheet6.8x100 (on a fixed band)13%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-102.6%0 (on a fixed band)25%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial10/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

SENESTECH, INC. (SNES). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.2 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 19.6%; net margin -294.7%; ROE -107.4%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 29.7%
  • Current ratio: 6.8x

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -294.7%
  • Interest coverage: -360.4x
  • FCF yield: -102.6%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2870) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 13.3x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 6.4x
P/S
2.8x
vertical median 1.0x
above median (+183.6%)
P/B
1.1x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+78.3%)
ROE
-107.4%
vertical median -9.3%
below median
Net margin
-294.7%
vertical median -3.7%
below median
EBIT margin
-303.7%
vertical median 3.7%
below median (−8,261.7%)
Revenue YoY
19.6%
vertical median -0.2%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.2x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 3.8%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NTRNutrien Ltd.41.0 bn15.59.1%8.4%+3.5%+24% / +35%
CFCf Industries Holdings, Inc.16.9 bn7.946.7%32.3%+19.3%+42% / +49%
MOSMosaic Co6.9 bn—-9.3%-9.4%+8.4%−12% / −40%
ICLIcl Group Ltd.5.9 bn25.43.9%3.2%+4.6%−18% / −9%
SMGScotts Miracle-Gro Co3.9 bn55.8—2.1%−3.9%+19% / +21%
UANCvr Partners, LP1.2 bn11.1—16.1%+15.4%+16% / +64%
AVDAmerican Vanguard Corporation28.8 m—-26.5%-10.7%−5.9%−79% / −90%
BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp.16.2 m—-19.1%-16.5%−27.9%−85% / −98%
SNESSenestech, Inc.6.6 m—-107.4%-294.7%+19.6%−61% / −97%
CBUSCibus, Inc.6.2 m—-225.9%-2,258.9%−14.6%−9% / −90%
EVGNEvogene Ltd.3.1 m0.3—-220.2%−30.9%−66% / −95%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SNES from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    SenesTech develops and sells fertility-control products that manage rat and mouse populations without lethal poisons, mainly the Evolve and ContraPest lines. The company is moving from research to sales, with revenue of 2.2 million USD in fiscal 2025 and a preliminary third quarter 2026 figure above 1 million USD for the first time.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • Products are non-lethal, clearly positioned against poisonous rodenticides, and Evolve benefits from the minimum risk exemption.
    • Gross margin rose as Evolve's share grew, suggesting more favorable product economics.
    • Online sales and subscriptions can generate recurring revenue and customer data useful for building the brand.

    Weaknesses

    • The company does not yet cover its operating expenses from revenue, and its net loss remains large relative to sales.
    • Dependence on external financing is high, and liquidity relies on share issuance or partnerships.
    • The revenue base is still small and ContraPest is declining, so results are sensitive to the success of a single line.

    Opportunities

    • Restrictions on anticoagulant rodenticides could expand demand for non-lethal alternatives, especially in sensitive areas.
    • B2B sales to agribusiness, pest management and institutional clients could add larger volumes than the online channel.
    • Strategic partnerships and technology licensing for other species could diversify revenue sources.

    Threats

    • Slow adoption of new technologies in the pest control industry could delay growth in professional sales.
    • If regulations change the exemption status or require additional testing, products could be commercially constrained.
    • Competition from classic rodenticides and new entrants in the category could reduce market share.

    Risks

    • Financing and cash runwayhigh

      The company says current funds could cover operations until about the second quarter of 2027, and if revenue grows more slowly or expenses exceed estimates, additional capital could be needed sooner.

    • Market adoptionhigh

      Commercial success depends on educating customers and convincing them to replace or complement classic rodenticides, a shift that may be slow.

    • EPA regulationmedium

      Registrations and exemptions could be challenged, and new testing requirements for the rodenticide category could affect current ContraPest products or future approvals.

    • Product concentrationmedium

      Most revenue comes from Evolve, so a production, ingredient or market-acceptance problem could quickly affect results.

    • Costs and taxeslow

      Inflationary pressure on raw materials and sales tax collection obligations in several jurisdictions could raise costs or reduce sales.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If rules against poisons tighten, the company's non-lethal product could become a standard IPM option, and quarterly revenue growth could continue.
    • Rising gross margin and a growing share of subscriptions could improve revenue quality and reduce reliance on one-off sales.
    • B2B partnerships and international distribution could extend the market beyond the online channel, if the sales team scales effectively.

    What would break the thesis

    • Net losses remain large relative to revenue, and the company could be forced to dilute shareholders to fund operations.
    • Slow product adoption in the pest control industry could make B2B growth slower than expected.
    • If ContraPest keeps declining and Evolve does not offset it, the revenue base could stay concentrated and exposed to regulatory change.

    What to watch

    • Publication of definitive Q3 2026 results and confirmation of preliminary revenueQ4 2026
    • Development of subscriptions and the share of recurring revenuenext 10-K
    • New financing rounds or use of the ATM program2027
    • Trend in gross margin and in selling, general and administrative costsQ1 2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    SenesTech develops products that manage populations of animal pests through fertility control, focusing on rats and mice. Its products are ContraPest, Evolve Rat and Evolve Mouse; Evolve is a soft bait with cottonseed oil as active ingredient, launched in January 2024, and now accounts for most revenue. The company argues that reducing reproduction limits rebound and can be used as part of integrated pest management (IPM).

    The 2026 commercial strategy rests on three directions: growing online sales through Amazon and Shopify, now run directly by the company, expanding B2B sales in vertical markets such as professional pest management, agribusiness and retail, and strategic partnerships. Subscriptions are presented as a growing recurring component of revenue, and international distribution is being developed through distributors.

    Segments

    Evolve

    The Evolve line, including Evolve Rat and Evolve Mouse, represented about 81% of revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 66% in fiscal 2024. It is registered as a minimum risk pesticide exempt from federal registration, and sales are authorized in 48 states and territories for Evolve Rat and 37 for Evolve Mouse.

    ContraPest

    ContraPest, the initial product, is a liquid bait registered with the EPA for rats, with sales declining in 2025 as customers shift to Evolve. It is registered in all 50 states and several U.S. territories, and the Elevate Bait System sub-label targets hard-to-reach rat habitats.

    Market context

    The rodent control market is dominated by lethal rodenticides, and companies like SenesTech argue there is growing demand for non-lethal alternatives. Regulators, including the EPA through its November 2024 ESA plan, are encouraging IPM and restricting anticoagulant use, which could open room for fertility products. The true size of this market is not determined from the analyzed sources.

    Consumer behavior matters too: online sales are growing and pest control purchasing is partly moving toward digital channels. For the company, the outcome depends on its ability to educate a market described as reluctant to adopt new technologies.

    Trends

    • Restrictions on lethal rodenticidestailwind

      The EPA endangered-species plan and its November 2024 evaluations could limit rodenticide use, which could shift demand toward non-lethal solutions like SenesTech's.

    • Anticoagulant resistancetailwind

      Studies document rising rat resistance to anticoagulant rodenticides, which can reduce the effectiveness of classic products and could favor fertility-control solutions.

    • Cost of capital and financingheadwind

      Higher interest rates and market conditions could make financing more expensive, and the company relies on equity issuance and its ATM program to sustain operations.

    • E-commerce and subscriptionsmixed

      Expansion of online platforms and subscriptions could improve revenue predictability, but depends on consumer awareness of a still new product category.

    Competitive position

    The main competitors are producers of lethal rodenticides, such as makers of second-generation anticoagulants, and traditional trap products. The sources do not identify direct competitors with comparable fertility-control offerings, but the company describes the pest control market as very crowded, which makes differentiation important.

    The company's stated advantage is its non-lethal design and the FIFRA minimum risk exemption for Evolve, which could matter if rules tighten on poisons. The counterpoint is that adoption of new technology by professional customers remains slow.

    • Anticoagulant rodenticide producers

      Traditional competitors sell lethal products; the sources do not name a specific U.S.-listed issuer.

    • Trap and classic bait producers

      These traditional solutions compete for the same pest control budget, but no specific issuer is identified in the source.

    • Pest control service providers

      Professional pest control firms are both customers and a sales channel for the company's products.

    • Agricultural and retail distributors

      Distribution channels may promote alternatives, but may also prefer established rodenticide products.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / SenesTech, Inc. · 13 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / SenesTech, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / SenesTech, Inc. · 15 Oct 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.