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olivLaw · US equity research

Cavco Industries, Inc. CVCO

Mobile Homes · SIC 2451 · Vertical: Lumber and wood products (SIC 24xx)

678.73USD+4.70% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes sold through independent and Company-owned retailers, and it also runs mortgage and insurance units serving manufactured housing buyers. Its relevance grows as housing affordability becomes a policy priority, even though industry shipments fell in calendar 2026 and the company reported rising revenue and a growing backlog at the start of fiscal 2027.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) stock was 678.73 USD (+4.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 5.2 bn USD, P/E 28.8 on diluted EPS of 23.60 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.94, 52-week range 455.76–697.76 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 656.4 m USD (+17.9% YoY), net income of 55.4 m USD (+5.8% YoY), diluted EPS 7.17 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
5.2 bn USD
shares as of 22 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
28.8
Diluted EPS TTM 23.60 · TTM to 26 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.48%
TTM to 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.94
Volatility (1y) 47%
52-week range
455.76697.76

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
73.1
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
452.20 – 656.56
above the upper band · %B 1.11 · band width 36.9%
SMA 50 / 200
553.81 / 549.79
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
24.25 / 6.82
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+17.8%−1.1%+18.9 pp—
3 months+15.5%−0.5%+15.9 pp—
6 months+35.7%+4.4%+31.3 pp—
Year to date+14.9%+12.3%+2.6 pp—
1 year+27.9%+13.5%+14.3 pp+4.1%
3 years+150.9%+76.4%+74.4 pp−11.9%
5 years+154.1%+63.7%+90.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−34.7%
16 Jan 2026 → 15 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−43.2%
07 Dec 2021 → 16 Jun 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+20.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 26 Sept 2026

Revenue
656.4 m USD
+17.9% YoY
Net income
55.4 m USD
+5.8% YoY
Diluted EPS
7.17
+9.5% YoY
net / operating
8.4% / 10.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue522.0 m508.4 m556.9 m556.5 m581.0 m550.1 m610.0 m656.4 m
Cost of revenue392.1 m392.2 m427.4 m422.1 m445.1 m423.1 m475.4 m508.8 m
Gross profit130.0 m116.1 m129.5 m134.4 m135.9 m127.1 m134.6 m147.6 m
SG&A66.0 m77.5 m69.1 m72.2 m81.4 m75.6 m81.8 m77.7 m
Operating income64.0 m38.6 m60.4 m62.2 m54.6 m51.5 m52.8 m69.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation4.8 m ≈5.0 m5.2 m5.3 m ≈6.2 m ≈6.4 m6.7 m6.9 m ≈
Interest expense155.0 k147.0 k164.0 k112.0 k131.0 k134.0 k132.0 k282.0 k
Pre-tax income69.3 m42.9 m65.3 m67.3 m57.6 m54.6 m55.8 m73.4 m
Income tax12.9 m6.6 m13.7 m14.9 m13.5 m12.1 m13.5 m17.9 m
Net income56.5 m36.3 m51.6 m52.4 m44.1 m42.5 m42.3 m55.4 m
Diluted EPS6.904.45 ≈6.426.555.585.42 ≈5.437.17
Operating cash flow37.8 m ≈38.6 m55.5 m78.5 m ≈66.1 m ≈67.4 m74.5 m96.4 m ≈
Capex5.4 m ≈6.1 m9.1 m9.7 m ≈8.5 m ≈8.0 m25.5 m29.7 m ≈
Share repurchases42.2 m ≈34.2 m50.0 m36.1 m ≈43.8 m ≈30.0 m30.0 m30.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 95 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 7.0, median 22.1, max 32.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue962.7 m1.1 bn1.1 bn1.6 bn2.1 bn1.8 bn2.0 bn2.2 bn
Revenue YoY+10.5%+10.3%+4.4%+46.8%+31.7%−16.2%+12.3%+11.4%
Net income68.6 m75.1 m76.6 m197.7 m240.6 m157.8 m171.0 m190.6 m
Net income YoY+11.6%+9.4%+2.1%+157.9%+21.7%−34.4%+8.4%+11.4%
Diluted EPS7.408.108.2521.3426.9518.3720.7123.98
Diluted EPS YoY+10.8%+9.5%+1.9%+158.7%+26.3%−31.8%+12.7%+15.8%
net %7.1%7.1%6.9%12.1%11.2%8.8%8.5%8.5%
Free cash flow25.2 m87.4 m88.5 m125.6 m211.6 m207.3 m157.1 m232.1 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 28 Mar 2026

Cash
236.7 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
1.1 bn USD
Total assets
1.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
2.46x
ROE
17.6%
ROA
13.2%
FCF margin
10.3%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.0 bn
2026
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.5 bn
2026
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
426.9 m
2025
465.6 m
2026
526.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

SG&A
2024
247.9 m
2025
275.3 m
2026
298.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Operating income
2024
179.0 m
2025
190.3 m
2026
228.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
18.5 m
2025
19.3 m
2026
23.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
197.5 m ≈
2025
209.5 m ≈
2026
251.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026derived

Interest expense
2024
1.6 m
2025
517.0 k
2026
541.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2024
199.2 m
2025
211.1 m
2026
244.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Income tax
2024
41.3 m
2025
40.0 m
2026
54.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Net income
2024
157.8 m
2025
171.0 m
2026
190.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
18.37
2025
20.71
2026
23.98

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
8.6 m
2025
8.3 m
2026
7.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
352.7 m
2025
356.2 m
2026
236.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Receivables
2024
77.1 m
2025
105.8 m
2026
108.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Inventories
2024
241.3 m
2025
252.7 m
2026
295.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Current assets
2024
851.8 m
2025
910.2 m
2026
824.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
224.2 m
2025
—
2026
—

SEC (XBRL)· 24 May 2024verified

Goodwill
2024
121.9 m
2025
122.0 m
2026
208.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
28.2 m
2025
16.7 m
2026
28.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Total assets
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.4 bn
2026
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
33.5 m
2025
37.2 m
2026
44.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
273.3 m
2025
303.2 m
2026
335.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Total liabilities
2024
320.7 m
2025
342.1 m
2026
388.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Equity
2024
1.0 bn †
2025
1.1 bn †
2026
1.1 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
224.7 m
2025
178.5 m
2026
267.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Capex
2024
17.4 m
2025
21.4 m
2026
35.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
207.3 m ≈
2025
157.1 m ≈
2026
232.1 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-31.7 m
2025
-24.0 m
2026
-222.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-107.7 m
2025
-147.9 m
2026
-162.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
109.3 m
2025
148.7 m
2026
159.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 22 May 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
1.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
15.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
20.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
-7.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Net income CAGR 5Y
20.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EPS growth (YoY)
15.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
-3.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
EPS CAGR 5Y
23.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
FCF growth (YoY)
47.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
22.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
9.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF margin
9.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
16.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROA
12.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
19.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
336.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
304.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
71.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
232.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
126.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
119.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
19 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
56 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
11 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
64 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
5.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
28.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
28.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
4.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/S
2.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
22.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 54 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

678.73 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 5.2 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
5.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
28.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
P/B
4.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
16.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 26 Sept 2026
Net margin
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 26 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
11.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 26 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 26 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 22 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 30 Oct 2026
verified 2439derived 199

Score by group

  • Balance sheet100
  • Growth6
  • Quality90
  • Returns37
  • Valuation53

Estimated value range

Low
494.32
USD per share
Mid
674.65
USD per share
High
783.29
USD per share
Price: 678.73 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -0.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -0.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 494.32 – 783.29 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: P/E494.32 – 783.29 (Mid 674.65)
    5 companies used · median multiple 28.6x · quartiles 20.9x – 33.2x
    FBIN, LEGH, SKY, TREX, UFPI
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Lumber and wood products (SIC 24xx)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 54/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality7.7%80 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality126.3%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth1.6%13 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-3.8%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet336.8x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.1x100 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation28.8x50 (vs peers)16%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation4.5%56 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.6%37 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth6/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality90/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial37/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation53/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC. (CVCO). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-09-26.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.2 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth 11.4%; net margin 7.7%; ROE 16.6%.

The estimated value range is 494.32–783.29 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 674.65 USD, the price of 678.73 USD leaves a potential of -0.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -0.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 54/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 7.7%
  • FCF conversion: 126.3%
  • Interest coverage: 336.8x
  • Current ratio: 2.1x

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.6%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -3.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Lumber and wood products (SIC 24xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
28.8x
vertical median 30.9x
below median (−6.9%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 16.4x
P/S
2.2x
vertical median 1.3x
above median (+67.3%)
P/B
4.6x
vertical median 2.3x
above median (+100.1%)
ROE
16.6%
vertical median 4.7%
above median (+252.9%)
Net margin
7.7%
vertical median 2.8%
above median (+171.4%)
EBIT margin
9.5%
vertical median 4.6%
above median (+106.0%)
Revenue YoY
11.4%
vertical median -9.0%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -1.5x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.7%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
TREXTrex Company, Inc.5.7 bn33.217.3%13.9%+2.0%+63% / −19%
FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.5.6 bn44.65.5%2.9%−3.2%−8% / −31%
LPXLouisiana-Pacific Corporation5.5 bn80.83.9%2.7%−7.9%−4% / +29%
CVCOCavco Industries, Inc.5.2 bn28.816.6%7.7%+11.4%+28% / +151%
SKYChampion Homes, Inc.5.2 bn28.611.8%6.8%+7.3%+12% / +60%
UFPIUfp Industries, Inc.4.7 bn20.97.5%3.6%−5.0%−7% / −21%
KOPKoppers Holdings Inc.811.1 m—-19.0%-4.6%−10.2%+45% / −5%
LEGHLegacy Housing Corporation755.8 m11.911.4%30.1%−10.7%+59% / +42%
JELDJELD-WEN Holding, Inc.94.6 m—-454.4%-5.3%−14.9%−59% / −93%
NWGLCL Workshop Group Ltd7.3 m—-64.0%-40.5%−15.4%−96% / −99%
WFGWest Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.——-14.6%-17.2%−11.5%+13% / −4%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CVCO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
398.39
Total return -41% · Per year -41%
705.35
Total return 4% · Per year 4%
1,063.85
Total return 57% · Per year 57%
3 years
364.12
Total return -46% · Per year -19%
727.51
Total return 7% · Per year 2%
1,207.99
Total return 78% · Per year 21%
5 years
332.81
Total return -51% · Per year -13%
750.37
Total return 11% · Per year 2%
1,371.65
Total return 102% · Per year 15%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 181.88
  • Net margin± 127.31
  • Annual revenue growth± 107.54
  • Annual dilution± 10.70

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

Cavco Industries designs and produces factory-built homes sold through independent and Company-owned retailers, and it also runs mortgage and insurance units serving manufactured housing buyers. Its relevance grows as housing affordability becomes a policy priority, even though industry shipments fell in calendar 2026 and the company reported rising revenue and a growing backlog at the start of fiscal 2027 123.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A position as one of the largest US manufactured home producers, with an extensive distribution network and owned production lines.
  • An integrated structure through financing and insurance, which adds revenue and higher margins in the financial segment.
  • A solid balance sheet with substantial cash, which provides flexibility in uncertain periods.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on manufactured home demand, which is sensitive to financing and consumer confidence.
  • Gross margins in the core segment are under pressure from material and labor costs.
  • Exposure to credit risk from distributors and inventory financing partners.

Opportunities

  • New federal legislation could reduce zoning barriers and improve access to financing for manufactured homes.
  • Developing a secondary market for home-only loans could expand demand and reduce reliance on independent lenders.
  • Acquisitions such as American Homestar could add capacity and distribution in new regions.

Threats

  • A broad decline in industry shipments could reduce sales volumes.
  • Harsher macroeconomic conditions for buyers could delay purchase decisions.
  • Natural catastrophes could affect the insurance unit and operations in Texas.

Risks

  • Demand and financinghigh

    Sales depend on buyers being able to obtain credit, and a tightening of credit could reduce orders 1.

  • Materials and labor costsmedium

    Shortages of materials and labor could cause delays and reduce margins if prices cannot be adjusted in time 1.

  • Credit riskmedium

    Exposure to loans extended to distributors and financing partners could weigh on liquidity if customers cannot repay 1.

  • Insurance and catastrophesmedium

    Severe weather in Texas could generate large losses for the insurance unit, although reinsurance reduces part of that exposure 1.

  • Warranty and construction defect claimslow

    Warranty and construction defect claims could exceed the reserves the company has set aside, affecting results 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the new legislation and local zoning reforms take effect, demand for manufactured homes could grow in a sustained way, and the company is well placed to benefit.
  • A growing order backlog at the start of fiscal 2027 suggests recent demand has been solid even in a shrinking market.
  • Diversification into financing and insurance could cushion declines in the core segment and support results.

What would break the thesis

  • If the decline in industry shipments continues, company volumes could be affected and the recent growth could prove temporary.
  • Pressure on gross margins in the core segment could persist if costs rise faster than prices.
  • Income before taxes fell in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which could point to pressure on profitability.

What to watch

  • Trend in the backlog and home sales volumesQ2 2027
  • Gross margin of the Factory-built Housing segmentQ2 2027
  • State-level implementation of the ROAD to Housing Act2027
  • Insurance unit results and the storm seasonnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

Cavco designs and builds manufactured homes, modular homes, park model RVs, vacation cabins and factory-built commercial structures, selling through independent distributors, planned community operators and its own retail stores. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, and reports two segments. Its decentralized structure lets local operators adapt to regional demand 1.

The Factory-built Housing segment builds homes on assembly lines, with 33 homebuilding production lines, two of them in Mexico, and home orders that are not firm until production begins 1. Distribution runs through independent distributors in 48 states and Canada, plus Company-owned retail stores 1.

The Financial services segment includes CountryPlace, which originates and sells conforming and non-conforming mortgages and home-only loans, and Standard Casualty, which provides property and casualty insurance to manufactured home owners, mainly in Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada 1.

Segments

Factory-built Housing

In fiscal 2026 the segment generated net revenue of 2157.4 million USD, and the company sold 20842 homes that year, with part of the growth coming from the American Homestar acquisition 1.

Financial services

The financial services segment had net revenue of 87.1 million USD in fiscal 2026, and its gross margin rose sharply on higher premiums and better underwriting results 1.

Market context

Industry shipments of manufactured homes in the United States fell in calendar 2026, with 41453 shipments through May, a decline of 7.7 percent from the prior year 2. The company frames manufactured homes as an affordable alternative to site-built housing, and market demand depends on financing access and consumer confidence 2.

Demand is tied to financing conditions: the secondary market for home-only loans remains thin, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have expanded programs for manufactured homes, though their effect on orders has so far been limited 1.

Trends

  • Housing affordabilitytailwind

    The housing affordability crisis is raising interest in factory-built homes, and the company notes that the bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act could encourage states and localities to reduce zoning barriers 3.

  • Consumer demand and financingheadwind

    Falling industry shipments and tighter financing for buyers, especially for home-only loans, could limit sales growth 2.

  • Materials and labor costsheadwind

    Rising material prices and labor shortages could compress margins if they cannot be passed on to customers in time 1.

  • GSE financing programsmixed

    The Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac underserved markets plans for 2025-2027 could expand offerings for manufactured homes, but their effect on orders has not yet materialized 1.

Competitive position

Cavco competes with other manufactured home producers and with distributors who sell products from several manufacturers. The market is regional, because a typical plant serves a shipping radius of about 350 miles 1.

The company's competitive edge rests on customization, its network of Company-owned stores, and diversification into financing and insurance, which reduces reliance on a single sales channel 1.

  • Other US manufactured home producers

    Competitors in the same industry that sell similar products through independent distributors.

  • Multi-brand independent distributors

    They sell homes from several manufacturers and may favor other brands.

  • Manufactured housing lenders

    Providers of home-only and mortgage loans that compete for buyer financing.

  • Site-built home builders

    The traditional alternative, with higher cost per square foot.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-03-28 · SEC / Cavco Industries, Inc. · 22 May 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Cavco Industries, Inc. · 31 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Cavco Industries, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.